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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 31, 2021 9:02:11 GMT -5
Obviously dependent on performance but wonder if Espinal sticks. They could've called somebody up who they know would've cleared waivers but elected not to I think the main reason they called up Espinal is that it was his day to start in Worcester and Boston is desperate and he could provide some length. He'll probably get optioned back but I wouldn't expect him to stick on the 40-man once all the regulars are back.
He's had a nice season in Worcester and congratulations are well deserved for making it to the majors but he'll be 30 in five weeks. Nice story but he's not a guy they're going to plan around for 2022.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 31, 2021 10:14:44 GMT -5
Well remember that he has all 3 options remaining. He doesn't necessarily need to stick in MLB. They'll activate Renfroe today. Santana and Brasier are your 27th and 28th players tomorrow. So the question is who they option today from the Araúz/Muñoz/Valdez/Espinal group. The question then becomes what they do when the 4 COVID guys get activated. They'll be at 39 once they add Brasier. Yeah I mean stick on the 40, should've clarified
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 31, 2021 13:36:57 GMT -5
Obviously dependent on performance but wonder if Espinal sticks. They could've called somebody up who they know would've cleared waivers but elected not to I think the main reason they called up Espinal is that it was his day to start in Worcester and Boston is desperate and he could provide some length. He'll probably get optioned back but I wouldn't expect him to stick on the 40-man once all the regulars are back. He's had a nice season in Worcester and congratulations are well deserved for making it to the majors but he'll be 30 in five weeks. Nice story but he's not a guy they're going to plan around for 2022.
FWIW he's been excellent in August and is in the Pitcher of the Month conversation. Nobody is saying they're planning around him but even from the beginning of the year Ian pegged him as a guy who could help in Boston this year. He's got 3 options and may or may not even burn one this year. (And actually, the "it was his day to start" thing isn't really correct - Hart could have come up on regular rest too. They scratched him on Sunday because he was coming up on the taxi squad but I do think the best SP option just happened to line up.) I honestly don't know enough about him to speak to this part knowledgeably, but he apparently signed with the Yankees at 20 and took 2 years to get out of the DSL. He didn't reach full season until 2017 at age 25, but was in AAA the next season. It's a really odd development path that I need to learn more about. Anyway, getting back to the 40-man, I'd DFA Potts and Rosario before Espinal at this point, I think, and would DFA Santana once all the position players are healthy again.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 31, 2021 16:26:55 GMT -5
| DFA/trade
| 60-day/Covid IL
| Free agents keep
| Free agents drop
| Rule 5 add/trade
| Free agents add
| 1
| Potts | E. Hernandez
| Schwarber | Santana | Bello | Scherzer | 2 | Rosario | Arroyo | E. Rodriguez
| Shaw | Downs | Bryant | 3
| Muñoz | Taylor | Vazquez | Perez | Jimenez | S. Marte | 4 | Espinal | Barnes |
| Peacock | Ward | Morton | 5 | Araúz | Mata |
| Robles | Santos | Ray | 6 | Valdez | Bazardo |
| Richards | Winckowski | Grienke | 7 | Plawecki |
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| Ottavino | Crawford | Jansen | 8 |
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| J.D. Martinez
| Feltman | McHugh | 9 |
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| Ort | Smyly | 10
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| Rafaela | R. Iglesias
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Above is a spreadsheet that makes me think that there’s really not much of a 40-man crunch this off-season. In each column the names are listed in order of priority of whatever the header says. Red names open spaces on the 40-man, green names must be added, black names are currently on and would stay. Obviously not all of the names will be added/subtracted but the number of red names dropped must equal the number of green names added. Especially given the current covid outbreak, some of these additions/subtractions will happen before the end of the season (e.g. Santana, Munoz out; Enrique, Arroyo in). If a guy currently on the 40-man is not in this table, he just stays. The bottom line is that it’s pretty easy to find 12+ spaces to open (red names), which gives you the 6 IL names plus 6+ of the Rule 5 guys. Any FAs that get signed will presumably be worth more than the red names that are left. That really doesn’t seem like a crunch to me.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 31, 2021 16:27:13 GMT -5
Some notes on the above table:
I don’t see the Sox keeping both Schwarber and Martinez. The assumption here is that Martinez opts out and Chaim chooses to pay Schwarber, who’s 5.5 years younger than JDM. Could they afford both? Maybe they sign another slugger younger than JDM, like Bryant, or someone with more tools, like Marte.
I’m guessing E-Rod will be re-signed, that his walk-year performance will drop his price (in years and dollars), and I think he’ll take a hometown discount. If not, then his 40-man spot will go to another FA veteran pitcher.
Vazquez has a club option - he’ll probably be extended a year on top of that (now, how about giving him a day off?).
We can argue until November about the Rule 5 guys. I like that Santos has performed against almost exclusively older competition his entire career (he’s currently pitching well in AA at 21). Winckowski is pitching well in AA at 23 and looks like he might provide big-league depth in late 2022. Crawford is only one step away from Fenway, so if they have concrete plans for him in 2022, they’ll protect him. Could a bottom-feeder stash Rafaela for a year? If so, it would take a meteoric rise for him to be big-league ready before his options run out. (Ditto Jimenez, who I would trade.)
Among the FAs, Scherzer is a fantasy. Could Schwarber lure Bryant (a west coast kid) to Fenway? Morton grew up in CT (although he’s never signed in the northeast). Greinke’s not signing in Boston in a million years. Ray would probably give us all ulcers. Does McHugh feel like he owes us a year? Jansen is intriguing (can LAD afford him, assuming they re-sign Kershaw?).
So many moving parts!
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Post by widewordofsport on Aug 31, 2021 16:49:14 GMT -5
It would be crazy to drop Plawecki...or add Rafaela. I assume Perez stays as well, over Richards if it comes to it. And I think the numbers are off.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 31, 2021 16:59:41 GMT -5
Some notes on the above table: I don’t see the Sox keeping both Schwarber and Martinez. The assumption here is that Martinez opts out and Chaim chooses to pay Schwarber, who’s 5.5 years younger than JDM. Could they afford both? Maybe they sign another slugger younger than JDM, like Bryant, or someone with more tools, like Marte. My guess: JDM does not opt out, Red Sox sign Schwarber or Bryant, and they trade JDM while eating a chunk of his salary.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 31, 2021 17:08:33 GMT -5
It would be crazy to drop Plawecki...or add Rafaela. I assume Perez stays as well, over Richards if it comes to it. And I think the numbers are off. Well, he's about 14th or 15th down the list... If it came down to dropping/trading Plawecki and going with Wong in order to make room for a big free agent, I'd do it. But not until all the guys above him are already gone.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 31, 2021 17:21:15 GMT -5
Some notes on the above table: I don’t see the Sox keeping both Schwarber and Martinez. The assumption here is that Martinez opts out and Chaim chooses to pay Schwarber, who’s 5.5 years younger than JDM. Could they afford both? Maybe they sign another slugger younger than JDM, like Bryant, or someone with more tools, like Marte. My guess: JDM does not opt out, Red Sox sign Schwarber or Bryant, and they trade JDM while eating a chunk of his salary. I know JDM is still a very good MLB player, but I think he's guessing a lot more than he used to. That is worrisome.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 31, 2021 17:24:28 GMT -5
Some notes on the above table: I don’t see the Sox keeping both Schwarber and Martinez. The assumption here is that Martinez opts out and Chaim chooses to pay Schwarber, who’s 5.5 years younger than JDM. Could they afford both? Maybe they sign another slugger younger than JDM, like Bryant, or someone with more tools, like Marte. My guess: JDM does not opt out, Red Sox sign Schwarber or Bryant, and they trade JDM while eating a chunk of his salary. I'm pretty confident he can do better than the 1-year $19.5m left on his contract, which is why I think he opts out. He may try to get another year or two added in BOS but I'm not sure Chaim wants to extend a guy whose drop off may be coming soon. Then again, Nelly Cruz is still mashing at 41 and Papi mashed until he was 40.
If he stays, it probably means that he really slumps again in Sept., in which case he wouldn't have much trade value. In that case, I think you hope he finds it again in '22 rather than selling really low on him.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 31, 2021 19:31:17 GMT -5
Who is going to pay JD $20M to be a streaky DH or bad LF?
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 31, 2021 21:24:10 GMT -5
Who is going to pay JD $20M to be a streaky DH or bad LF? Maybe he's not as good as I think he is... on pace for about 3 WAR, which is worth about $25m...
Also, pretty hard to judge the market these days although the superstars (e.g. Betts, Lindor, Tatis Jr.) are still getting big long deals.
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Post by bcsox on Sept 1, 2021 7:27:19 GMT -5
I imagine they havent said anything, but is their a payroll number that the RS, want to, or need to stay under again next year. It seems like this is two straight years under the luxury tax, which if true, maybe a sign that this is the number that they will always try to stay below. At 190 mill committed, how much room are they going to have to add to the payroll?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 1, 2021 9:40:20 GMT -5
I imagine they havent said anything, but is their a payroll number that the RS, want to, or need to stay under again next year. It seems like this is two straight years under the luxury tax, which if true, maybe a sign that this is the number that they will always try to stay below. At 190 mill committed, how much room are they going to have to add to the payroll? Until there's a CBA we have no idea.
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Post by notnickyorke on Sept 1, 2021 18:27:19 GMT -5
I imagine they havent said anything, but is their a payroll number that the RS, want to, or need to stay under again next year. It seems like this is two straight years under the luxury tax, which if true, maybe a sign that this is the number that they will always try to stay below. At 190 mill committed, how much room are they going to have to add to the payroll? Assuming the following ballpark arbitration salaries and declining options the Luxury tax payroll projects at 185 million. That is 25 million below the current 1st threshold. Its tough to imagine the players union agreeing to lower that, but who knows. Still, 25 million to fill a mid rotation spot in the rotation, add a lefty bat to play first with dalbec till Casas is ready, middle infielder, and bullpen upgrades. That doesn't sound like the easiest task to do without going over. Under the current payroll rules, you would think they would see next year as there opening window to go over the threshold for a few years before resetting again. But, I can't really see Bloom making that decision till he knows what the penalties under the new CBA will be. The saving grace could be JD Martinez opting out and giving them an extra 22 million to play with. These are very much ballpark numbers and could be significantly off. I haven't seen any lists put out that project them yet. Devers 10 mil Renfroe 6 Pivetta 4 Verdugo 4 Plawacki 3 Arroyo 2 Taylor 1.5 Braiser 1.25 Cordero 1.2 mil
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Post by vermontsox1 on Sept 2, 2021 13:02:47 GMT -5
Red Sox claimed utility infielder Taylor Motter off waivers from the Rockies.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 2, 2021 13:11:54 GMT -5
Needed a body. He’s murdering in AAA too. Hitting for power with a 1:1 BB/K
Bloom familiarity from Tampa too
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Post by bcsox on Sept 2, 2021 13:35:59 GMT -5
As I think we have since Schwarber was activated, this roster really doesnt function well with both of them in the every day lineup. They should both be considered 100% DH's. Defensively it is impractical to have both of them in the lineup at the same time. Chaim preached flexibilty last offseason on acquiring players who could play multiple positions. If he believe in that, he is not bringing back these two guys, who cant play one position defensively. If JD opts in, Schwarber goes. If JD opts out, I think they try to resign Schwarber.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 2, 2021 14:48:53 GMT -5
As I think we have since Schwarber was activated, this roster really doesnt function well with both of them in the every day lineup. They should both be considered 100% DH's. Defensively it is impractical to have both of them in the lineup at the same time. Chaim preached flexibilty last offseason on acquiring players who could play multiple positions. If he believe in that, he is not bringing back these two guys, who cant play one position defensively. If JD opts in, Schwarber goes. If JD opts out, I think they try to resign Schwarber. There's still the possibility of 1B. That seemed to be the original plan with Schwarber when they traded for him, so if he could get some playing time at 1B along with splitting time with Martinez at DH while Martinez splits time at DH/LF, it could work. It would also buy a year for Casas to become ready, at which time Schwarber could move to the DH/LF role as Martinez becomes a free agent. I think JD opts-in for next year. He seems to like it here and since he's 34 I don't expect a team to guarantee him 3+ years. (if they do though, I would quickly reverse my opinion on this) If we go with your assumption that one of Martinez/Schwarber leaves, then who becomes the platoon with Dalbec next year? Shaw? I'm excited by how well Dalbec has played over the past month, but not enough to feel comfortable without a lefty 1B option on the roster next year.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 2, 2021 18:24:33 GMT -5
Austin Pruitt hitting waivers #BloomWatch
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 2, 2021 18:40:54 GMT -5
As I think we have since Schwarber was activated, this roster really doesnt function well with both of them in the every day lineup. They should both be considered 100% DH's. Defensively it is impractical to have both of them in the lineup at the same time. Chaim preached flexibilty last offseason on acquiring players who could play multiple positions. If he believe in that, he is not bringing back these two guys, who cant play one position defensively. If JD opts in, Schwarber goes. If JD opts out, I think they try to resign Schwarber. There's still the possibility of 1B. That seemed to be the original plan with Schwarber when they traded for him, so if he could get some playing time at 1B along with splitting time with Martinez at DH while Martinez splits time at DH/LF, it could work. It would also buy a year for Casas to become ready, at which time Schwarber could move to the DH/LF role as Martinez becomes a free agent. I think JD opts-in for next year. He seems to like it here and since he's 34 I don't expect a team to guarantee him 3+ years. (if they do though, I would quickly reverse my opinion on this) If we go with your assumption that one of Martinez/Schwarber leaves, then who becomes the platoon with Dalbec next year? Shaw? I'm excited by how well Dalbec has played over the past month, but not enough to feel comfortable without a lefty 1B option on the roster next year. I would be happy with Mitchie Twobags
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 2, 2021 20:32:12 GMT -5
As I think we have since Schwarber was activated, this roster really doesnt function well with both of them in the every day lineup. They should both be considered 100% DH's. Defensively it is impractical to have both of them in the lineup at the same time. Chaim preached flexibilty last offseason on acquiring players who could play multiple positions. If he believe in that, he is not bringing back these two guys, who cant play one position defensively. If JD opts in, Schwarber goes. If JD opts out, I think they try to resign Schwarber. The other option is to sign Schwarber and trade JDM if he opts in. That's where I'm leaning. I think JD is guessing too much now due to his bat speed slowing down. Schwarber is one of the best hitters in baseball.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 3, 2021 9:54:17 GMT -5
My guess: JDM does not opt out, Red Sox sign Schwarber or Bryant, and they trade JDM while eating a chunk of his salary. I'm pretty confident he can do better than the 1-year $19.5m left on his contract, which is why I think he opts out. He may try to get another year or two added in BOS but I'm not sure Chaim wants to extend a guy whose drop off may be coming soon. Then again, Nelly Cruz is still mashing at 41 and Papi mashed until he was 40.
If he stays, it probably means that he really slumps again in Sept., in which case he wouldn't have much trade value. In that case, I think you hope he finds it again in '22 rather than selling really low on him.
Let's just stipulate he ends the 2021 season with the numbers he has now projected forward. Does he opt out? I don't think so. By WAR he'd be basically worth just a couple million more than he's making, and of course next year will be a year older. He'd still be a valuable player next season but I don't think any team would value him higher than $19.5 million for the first year of a potential contract. So the Red Sox could trade him if they ate some (half? most?) of his contract.
He's 34 and so far is following a pretty standard aging curve, which doesn't bode great for him. If you want a pessimistic take on his trajectory, ZIPS projects him to be worth 0.7 WAR in 2022 and 0.1 in 2023.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 3, 2021 11:42:03 GMT -5
That ZiPS projection hasn't updated since the preseason. The Rest of Season ones update regularly, although at least some of them are dumbed down models beyond that. Anyway the ROS projections have him maintaining his season numbers and finishing with just under 3 WAR.
I would guess his 2022 WAR projection will be in the 2-2.5 range. JD's 19.375 option is right around fair value. If JD opted out, he would likely do worse than that because the signing team would probably have to pay the Qualifying Offer free agent draft tax (worth I dunno, $5 million? just a guess), plus DH's have trouble realizing the free agent value of their WAR because of limited demand. So I would guess he's looking at like 1/12 as a free agent.
Interestingly, the QO offer amount is almost exactly his option amount, so I think an opt out/QO scenario is in both parties interests. The Red Sox are fine getting him back at that price, but they're probably happiest collecting a draft pick for free. And JD gets to shop around risk free and see if anyone wants to go nuts and offer him too much money.
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 3, 2021 12:35:06 GMT -5
That ZiPS projection hasn't updated since the preseason. The Rest of Season ones update regularly, although at least some of them are dumbed down models beyond that. Anyway the ROS projections have him maintaining his season numbers and finishing with just under 3 WAR. I would guess his 2022 WAR projection will be in the 2-2.5 range. JD's 19.375 option is right around fair value. If JD opted out, he would likely do worse than that because the signing team would probably have to pay the Qualifying Offer free agent draft tax (worth I dunno, $5 million? just a guess), plus DH's have trouble realizing the free agent value of their WAR because of limited demand. So I would guess he's looking at like 1/12 as a free agent. Interestingly, the QO offer amount is almost exactly his option amount, so I think an opt out/QO scenario is in both parties interests. The Red Sox are fine getting him back at that price, but they're probably happiest collecting a draft pick for free. And JD gets to shop around risk free and see if anyone wants to go nuts and offer him too much money. Had not thot about the QO route, and doubt that the Sox do that, but it works for me. I am also happy with the trade JD route for a bag of batting practice balls and a smallish portion of his salary, and signing Schwarber or Bryant or Marte with the savings plus something extra. JD has been a great servant for the Sox but we can do better at this point for the money or a little more. Assuming the new CBA does not screw us royally, I would expect the Sox to go over the lux tax barrier. That was the point of staying under and resetting this year.
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