SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 3, 2021 12:53:33 GMT -5
That ZiPS projection hasn't updated since the preseason. The Rest of Season ones update regularly, although at least some of them are dumbed down models beyond that. Anyway the ROS projections have him maintaining his season numbers and finishing with just under 3 WAR. I would guess his 2022 WAR projection will be in the 2-2.5 range. JD's 19.375 option is right around fair value. If JD opted out, he would likely do worse than that because the signing team would probably have to pay the Qualifying Offer free agent draft tax (worth I dunno, $5 million? just a guess), plus DH's have trouble realizing the free agent value of their WAR because of limited demand. So I would guess he's looking at like 1/12 as a free agent. Interestingly, the QO offer amount is almost exactly his option amount, so I think an opt out/QO scenario is in both parties interests. The Red Sox are fine getting him back at that price, but they're probably happiest collecting a draft pick for free. And JD gets to shop around risk free and see if anyone wants to go nuts and offer him too much money. Had not thot about the QO route, and doubt that the Sox do that, but it works for me. I am also happy with the trade JD route for a bag of batting practice balls and a smallish portion of his salary, and signing Schwarber or Bryant or Marte with the savings plus something extra. JD has been a great servant for the Sox but we can do better at this point for the money or a little more. Assuming the new CBA does not screw us royally, I would expect the Sox to go over the lux tax barrier. That was the point of staying under and resetting this year. I think if they offered the QO to JDM if he did opt out that JDM would be looking at signing after the draft so whatever team signed him didn't have to give up the pick. I really doubt he opts out with that being one of the reasons.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 3, 2021 14:47:29 GMT -5
I'm pretty confident he can do better than the 1-year $19.5m left on his contract, which is why I think he opts out. He may try to get another year or two added in BOS but I'm not sure Chaim wants to extend a guy whose drop off may be coming soon. Then again, Nelly Cruz is still mashing at 41 and Papi mashed until he was 40.
If he stays, it probably means that he really slumps again in Sept., in which case he wouldn't have much trade value. In that case, I think you hope he finds it again in '22 rather than selling really low on him.
Let's just stipulate he ends the 2021 season with the numbers he has now projected forward. Does he opt out? I don't think so. By WAR he'd be basically worth just a couple million more than he's making, and of course next year will be a year older. He'd still be a valuable player next season but I don't think any team would value him higher than $19.5 million for the first year of a potential contract. So the Red Sox could trade him if they ate some (half? most?) of his contract.
He's 34 and so far is following a pretty standard aging curve, which doesn't bode great for him. If you want a pessimistic take on his trajectory, ZIPS projects him to be worth 0.7 WAR in 2022 and 0.1 in 2023.
I will eat this laptop if JD combines for 0.8 WAR in 2022-23. There, I said it.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 3, 2021 15:07:40 GMT -5
Let's just stipulate he ends the 2021 season with the numbers he has now projected forward. Does he opt out? I don't think so. By WAR he'd be basically worth just a couple million more than he's making, and of course next year will be a year older. He'd still be a valuable player next season but I don't think any team would value him higher than $19.5 million for the first year of a potential contract. So the Red Sox could trade him if they ate some (half? most?) of his contract.
He's 34 and so far is following a pretty standard aging curve, which doesn't bode great for him. If you want a pessimistic take on his trajectory, ZIPS projects him to be worth 0.7 WAR in 2022 and 0.1 in 2023.
I will eat this laptop if JD combines for 0.8 WAR in 2022-23. There, I said it. Oh I'm sure that's too low. It's probably overweighting his terrible but fluky 2020 season. But I might put the over/under for 2022-23 at about 4 WAR, which wouldn't be worth $19 million/year. And there's a pretty significant risk that he could just fall off a cliff to replacement level or worse.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 3, 2021 15:11:45 GMT -5
Had not thot about the QO route, and doubt that the Sox do that, but it works for me. I am also happy with the trade JD route for a bag of batting practice balls and a smallish portion of his salary, and signing Schwarber or Bryant or Marte with the savings plus something extra. JD has been a great servant for the Sox but we can do better at this point for the money or a little more. Assuming the new CBA does not screw us royally, I would expect the Sox to go over the lux tax barrier. That was the point of staying under and resetting this year. I think if they offered the QO to JDM if he did opt out that JDM would be looking at signing after the draft so whatever team signed him didn't have to give up the pick. I really doubt he opts out with that being one of the reasons. I think this is getting a little bit into the weeds.
Boras will know (probably already knows) how many teams are willing to extend JD to something like 3 yrs/$55-60m (including 2022), so if there's at least one, he opts out and probably tries to get Chaim to match, which I don't see happening. That to me is the most likely scenario.
If there is no market for JD, he exercises his player option and hopes for a bigger walk year (although he's already third in DH WAR this year, behind only Ohtani and Alvarez with a 129 wRC+, even after his recent prolonged slump).
I find the JD-stays-but-gets-traded scenario a bit hard to follow. For one thing, he's one of the veteran leaders of the team (one of the guys who called the players-only meeting, a de facto hitting coach to many, was the guy who sat next to Devers last night to pull the plug on his "I foul-tipped it" hissy fit). That would be a very bad look to the players; Belichickian, even. For another thing, this scenario presupposes that there is a team out there that fits the following conditions: 1) is in the AL; 2) has a potential opening at DH; 3) would refuse to pay JD's asking price; 4) fits as a trade partner with BOS; and 5) would pay Chaim's asking price in prospects (which I don't think would be trivial, given that he's under zero pressure to trade him -- even negative pressure, based on JD's stature with the team). I guess that's what I mean by "into the weeds." That's a pretty specific scenario that seems lottery-likely.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 3, 2021 15:24:21 GMT -5
I think if they offered the QO to JDM if he did opt out that JDM would be looking at signing after the draft so whatever team signed him didn't have to give up the pick. I really doubt he opts out with that being one of the reasons. I think this is getting a little bit into the weeds.
Boras will know (probably already knows) how many teams are willing to extend JD to something like 3 yrs/$55-60m (including 2022), so if there's at least one, he opts out and probably tries to get Chaim to match, which I don't see happening. That to me is the most likely scenario.
If there is no market for JD, he exercises his player option and hopes for a bigger walk year (although he's already third in DH WAR this year, behind only Ohtani and Alvarez with a 129 wRC+, even after his recent prolonged slump).
I find the JD-stays-but-gets-traded scenario a bit hard to follow. For one thing, he's one of the veteran leaders of the team (one of the guys who called the players-only meeting, a de facto hitting coach to many, was the guy who sat next to Devers last night to pull the plug on his "I foul-tipped it" hissy fit). That would be a very bad look to the players; Belichickian, even. For another thing, this scenario presupposes that there is a team out there that fits the following conditions: 1) is in the AL; 2) has a potential opening at DH; 3) would refuse to pay JD's asking price; 4) fits as a trade partner with BOS; and 5) would pay Chaim's asking price in prospects (which I don't think would be trivial, given that he's under zero pressure to trade him -- even negative pressure, based on JD's stature with the team). I guess that's what I mean by "into the weeds." That's a pretty specific scenario that seems lottery-likely.
All of these points really just amount to: is there a team out there that would value JDM at less than $19 million but more than, say, $10 million? Considering that a fair valuation of JDM would in fact fall in that range*, it doesn't seem so far-fetched to me.
As for his clubhouse value, maybe that's real and something Bloom would value, but presumably the team has enough faith in their hitting coach to feel that they don't need JD as a shadow hitting coach, and I assume whatever replacement they got for JD (Schwarber?? Bryant?) would also have good makeup.
*Maybe I'm wrong and there is a team out there that would be eager to sign him at 2/40 or better, but I'm skeptical. Even if there is, JD might prefer to take the 1/19 and try to boost his value for a chance at a better offer after 2022.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Sept 3, 2021 16:21:04 GMT -5
I think this is getting a little bit into the weeds.
Boras will know (probably already knows) how many teams are willing to extend JD to something like 3 yrs/$55-60m (including 2022), so if there's at least one, he opts out and probably tries to get Chaim to match, which I don't see happening. That to me is the most likely scenario.
If there is no market for JD, he exercises his player option and hopes for a bigger walk year (although he's already third in DH WAR this year, behind only Ohtani and Alvarez with a 129 wRC+, even after his recent prolonged slump).
I find the JD-stays-but-gets-traded scenario a bit hard to follow. For one thing, he's one of the veteran leaders of the team (one of the guys who called the players-only meeting, a de facto hitting coach to many, was the guy who sat next to Devers last night to pull the plug on his "I foul-tipped it" hissy fit). That would be a very bad look to the players; Belichickian, even. For another thing, this scenario presupposes that there is a team out there that fits the following conditions: 1) is in the AL; 2) has a potential opening at DH; 3) would refuse to pay JD's asking price; 4) fits as a trade partner with BOS; and 5) would pay Chaim's asking price in prospects (which I don't think would be trivial, given that he's under zero pressure to trade him -- even negative pressure, based on JD's stature with the team). I guess that's what I mean by "into the weeds." That's a pretty specific scenario that seems lottery-likely.
All of these points really just amount to: is there a team out there that would value JDM at less than $19 million but more than, say, $10 million? Considering that a fair valuation of JDM would in fact fall in that range*, it doesn't seem so far-fetched to me.
As for his clubhouse value, maybe that's real and something Bloom would value, but presumably the team has enough faith in their hitting coach to feel that they don't need JD as a shadow hitting coach, and I assume whatever replacement they got for JD (Schwarber?? Bryant?) would also have good makeup.
*Maybe I'm wrong and there is a team out there that would be eager to sign him at 2/40 or better, but I'm skeptical. Even if there is, JD might prefer to take the 1/19 and try to boost his value for a chance at a better offer after 2022.
OK. This is all rank speculation. Smart and fun. Good points all around. The more I read from you gentlepersons, the more I come to the belief that JD is simply unlikely to opt out. His age, his recent inconsistency, the multiple other options available out there all would seem to limit his chances at a significant payday. No one, not Bloom, not Boras, not JD is going to be a slave to sentiment unless we are talking about a very close call between Boston and someplace else. Thus, I think we wind up with JD next year and not Schwarber. That result does not preclude the Sox from signing a significant position upgrade like Bryant or Marte. But the combo of JD and Kyle S. is one too many DHs—neither of whose defense warms my heart. That takes me back to my trade JD scenario. I think that can only happen if the Sox eat some of his salary. And I would then hope that the Sox ante up even more and sign a younger and better player. How is that for more weeds?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 3, 2021 17:05:27 GMT -5
Considering he spent his entire career in the NL until a month ago, people are a bit quick to stick the "DH only" tag on Schwarber, IMO. I've been arguing for the logic of trading JDM if they signed Schwarber, but really I think they could easily keep both, and in fact I wouldn't mind that at all! They'd only overlap for one season. Injuries have a way of resolving crowded rosters, and if they don't there's the possibility of a mid-season trade. (Though this is probably predicated on their going over the luxury tax next season, and who knows about that with the CBA uncertainty...)
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 3, 2021 18:03:26 GMT -5
Looking around the AL, TOR appears to be a perfect candidate for giving JDM a 2-3 year contract this off-season.
There's a DH spot available to him (Springer to CF, Grichuk to the bench); they have a ton of young hitters who could benefit from his tutelage; the team knows that their window is open and they need to strike now (they're 8 games off their Pythagorean W-L record -- EIGHT!). New manager, veteran bat, they could be a monster next year.
If I can identify that in 10 minutes, Boras has probably already been talking to the Jays brass.
The A's could use JDM too but are less likely to spend even on that short a contract.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Sept 3, 2021 18:12:36 GMT -5
Considering he spent his entire career in the NL until a month ago, people are a bit quick to stick the "DH only" tag on Schwarber, IMO. I've been arguing for the logic of trading JDM if they signed Schwarber, but really I think they could easily keep both, and in fact I wouldn't mind that at all! They'd only overlap for one season. Injuries have a way of resolving crowded rosters, and if they don't there's the possibility of a mid-season trade. (Though this is probably predicated on their going over the luxury tax next season, and who knows about that with the CBA uncertainty...) What assumptions are you making here? Here is how I see what you are bringing about. Please correct me. I may have it all wrong. 1. Dalbec is the 1B if he keeps hitting but Schwarber will get PT there. 2. The possible defensive shortcomings of either JDM or KS in the OF almost every day is more than offset by their hitting, and by late inning replacements as appropriate. 3. JD neither opts out nor gets traded. And the Sox sign KS rather than someone else at roughly the same number—or KS signs for much less than a high quality alternative. I still prefer not to have both JD and KS, and would prefer a more complete player in place of one of them.
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 3, 2021 21:54:31 GMT -5
So - the 40 man is quite the complicated thing right now...
COVID - Kiké, Arroyo, Sawamura, Duran, Taylor, Barnes, Perez, Bogaerts, Munoz (9 players) IL - Darwinzon, Rios, Bazardo, Downs
Unexpectedly added due to COVID, or back from the IL, or recently added - Peacock, Gonsalves, Schreiber, Lopez, Arauz, Wong, Santana, Motter
How this all sorts out once the COVID folks are back will be pretty interesting - what will the 40 look like in a few weeks???
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 4, 2021 2:44:49 GMT -5
So - the 40 man is quite the complicated thing right now... COVID - Kiké, Arroyo, Sawamura, Duran, Taylor, Barnes, Perez, Bogaerts, Munoz (9 players) IL - Darwinzon, Rios, Bazardo, Downs Unexpectedly added due to COVID, or back from the IL, or recently added - Peacock, Gonsalves, Schreiber, Lopez, Arauz, Wong, Santana, Motter How this all sorts out once the COVID folks are back will be pretty interesting - what will the 40 look like in a few weeks??? The roster is currently 38, but Peacock, Gonsalves, Schreiber, Munoz, and Lopez can be returned to AAA (as can Crawford if he's added). So add the 9 guys on the C-19 list and you're at 42.
Santana likely is a goner, as there's no room on the 26 once everyone returns. Taylor Motter (who seems likely to replace him for a few days) will likely clear waivers, and if not, who cares?
Note that by keeping Bazardo on the 60-day IL they already have a free ticket to adding anyone in the org but not on the 40-man as of 8/31. Munoz is the only guy I can find that fits that description.
The mildly interesting roster situation now is that once everyone is healthy, they have 11 relievers for 10 bullpen spots.
Ottavino Barnes
Whitlock Taylor Richards Samamura Hernandez Brasier Robles Davis Perez
But the simple thing would be to option Davis.
|
|
|
Post by jerrygarciaparra on Sept 4, 2021 6:58:57 GMT -5
Looking around the AL, TOR appears to be a perfect candidate for giving JDM a 2-3 year contract this off-season. There's a DH spot available to him (Springer to CF, Grichuk to the bench); they have a ton of young hitters who could benefit from his tutelage; the team knows that their window is open and they need to strike now (they're 8 games off their Pythagorean W-L record -- EIGHT!). New manager, veteran bat, they could be a monster next year. If I can identify that in 10 minutes, Boras has probably already been talking to the Jays brass.The A's could use JDM too but are less likely to spend even on that short a contract. Are you sure you think he could be talking to the Jays? Is that even allowed ? JD is under contract with the Red Sox, I am not sure that is allowed. He is certainly doing his homework on options, but I think this is a form of tampering, isn't it ? I know if some agent was talking to other teams about our players, i have a feeling Henry and Company would be pissed. I don't forsee JD opting out. I don't think there would be more AAV money for him. Maybe someone gives him more years with a salary reduction, but he has a good thing here. Why would he risk it for comparable salary.
|
|
|
Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Sept 4, 2021 7:45:11 GMT -5
So - the 40 man is quite the complicated thing right now... COVID - Kiké, Arroyo, Sawamura, Duran, Taylor, Barnes, Perez, Bogaerts, Munoz (9 players) IL - Darwinzon, Rios, Bazardo, Downs Unexpectedly added due to COVID, or back from the IL, or recently added - Peacock, Gonsalves, Schreiber, Lopez, Arauz, Wong, Santana, Motter How this all sorts out once the COVID folks are back will be pretty interesting - what will the 40 look like in a few weeks??? I think what some fans don't realize is that there's special COVID rule. Players, like Espinal, who are added to Boston don't have to go through waivers of get optioned to return to the minors. Another example is Wong (replaced Duran). If he goes back to minors, he won't have to wait the 10 days to get recalled (as he won't be optioned).
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,980
|
Post by jimoh on Sept 4, 2021 8:16:40 GMT -5
Looking around the AL, TOR appears to be a perfect candidate for giving JDM a 2-3 year contract this off-season. There's a DH spot available to him (Springer to CF, Grichuk to the bench); they have a ton of young hitters who could benefit from his tutelage; the team knows that their window is open and they need to strike now (they're 8 games off their Pythagorean W-L record -- EIGHT!). New manager, veteran bat, they could be a monster next year. If I can identify that in 10 minutes, Boras has probably already been talking to the Jays brass. The A's could use JDM too but are less likely to spend even on that short a contract. Toronto is paying Grichuk ~10M a year through 2023. You think they'd rather pay Grichuk 10M to be on the bench and JD 15-20M per for three years rather than play Grichuk and save or use elsewhere that $15-20M? When they also have Lourdes Gurriel who's 27?
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2021 9:47:27 GMT -5
So - the 40 man is quite the complicated thing right now... COVID - Kiké, Arroyo, Sawamura, Duran, Taylor, Barnes, Perez, Bogaerts, Munoz (9 players) IL - Darwinzon, Rios, Bazardo, Downs Unexpectedly added due to COVID, or back from the IL, or recently added - Peacock, Gonsalves, Schreiber, Lopez, Arauz, Wong, Santana, Motter How this all sorts out once the COVID folks are back will be pretty interesting - what will the 40 look like in a few weeks??? The roster is currently 38, but Peacock, Gonsalves, Schreiber, Munoz, and Lopez can be returned to AAA (as can Crawford if he's added). So add the 9 guys on the C-19 list and you're at 42.
Santana likely is a goner, as there's no room on the 26 once everyone returns. Taylor Motter (who seems likely to replace him for a few days) will likely clear waivers, and if not, who cares?
Note that by keeping Bazardo on the 60-day IL they already have a free ticket to adding anyone in the org but not on the 40-man as of 8/31. Munoz is the only guy I can find that fits that description.
The mildly interesting roster situation now is that once everyone is healthy, they have 11 relievers for 10 bullpen spots.
Ottavino Barnes
Whitlock Taylor Richards Samamura Hernandez Brasier Robles Davis Perez
But the simple thing would be to option Davis.
But is Davis better than Perez? Are they at a moment when they might just let Perez go? The difference might be negligible, which makes your scenario the better choice… but if there is enough gap… might be time to DFA Perez.
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Sept 4, 2021 12:05:30 GMT -5
All things being equal, it would seem like offing Perez who has no future in Boston ought to be the choice. With a full roster, we do not need a mop up guy, and with Whitlock, Richards and one of Houck/Pivetta going to the pen, we do not have a long relief issue in the playoffs.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 4, 2021 12:32:04 GMT -5
Looking around the AL, TOR appears to be a perfect candidate for giving JDM a 2-3 year contract this off-season. There's a DH spot available to him (Springer to CF, Grichuk to the bench); they have a ton of young hitters who could benefit from his tutelage; the team knows that their window is open and they need to strike now (they're 8 games off their Pythagorean W-L record -- EIGHT!). New manager, veteran bat, they could be a monster next year. If I can identify that in 10 minutes, Boras has probably already been talking to the Jays brass.The A's could use JDM too but are less likely to spend even on that short a contract. Are you sure you think he could be talking to the Jays? Is that even allowed ? JD is under contract with the Red Sox, I am not sure that is allowed. He is certainly doing his homework on options, but I think this is a form of tampering, isn't it ? I know if some agent was talking to other teams about our players, i have a feeling Henry and Company would be pissed. I don't forsee JD opting out. I don't think there would be more AAV money for him. Maybe someone gives him more years with a salary reduction, but he has a good thing here. Why would he risk it for comparable salary. I'm quite sure it's illegal. Maybe I'm a cynic but I don't think that keeps big-time agents for putting feelers out for their clients. I'd be awfully surprised if Boras doesn't have a rolodex with contacts from every team who are go-betweens to the actual FO. Heck, he's probably got clients on almost every team. Call the player, player talks to AGM or someone.
EDIT: Kids, a "rolodex" was a kind of circular desktop (like, on an actual desk) filing system for cards with people's contact info on them that people used before cell phones.
EDIT part deux: I think he's looking for the longest guarantee he can find at an AAV somewhere in the neigborhood of what he's at now. If he stays in Boston, then he has to have a huge year in 2022 to get that. He's already having a solid year this year, so if he can opt out and get, say, 3 yrs/$50m-$55m, that's $31-$36m more guaranteed than he would get by opting in. He wouldn't get anything near that if he opted in and then had a subpar year in 2022. He's not at an age where he can "bet on himself" anymore.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 4, 2021 12:37:07 GMT -5
All things being equal, it would seem like offing Perez who has no future in Boston ought to be the choice. With a full roster, we do not need a mop up guy, and with Whitlock, Richards and one of Houck/Pivetta going to the pen, we do not have a long relief issue in the playoffs. I see Houck's future as the current Whitlock role. I'm guessing Houck will be in it (alongside Whitlock) before the end of the month.
It's pretty clear to me that AC is already moving the pitching staff to the rover/piggyback strategy he used in the 2018 playoffs. I like it.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 4, 2021 12:40:40 GMT -5
Considering he spent his entire career in the NL until a month ago, people are a bit quick to stick the "DH only" tag on Schwarber, IMO. I've been arguing for the logic of trading JDM if they signed Schwarber, but really I think they could easily keep both, and in fact I wouldn't mind that at all! They'd only overlap for one season. Injuries have a way of resolving crowded rosters, and if they don't there's the possibility of a mid-season trade. (Though this is probably predicated on their going over the luxury tax next season, and who knows about that with the CBA uncertainty...) What assumptions are you making here? Here is how I see what you are bringing about. Please correct me. I may have it all wrong. 1. Dalbec is the 1B if he keeps hitting but Schwarber will get PT there. 2. The possible defensive shortcomings of either JDM or KS in the OF almost every day is more than offset by their hitting, and by late inning replacements as appropriate. 3. JD neither opts out nor gets traded. And the Sox sign KS rather than someone else at roughly the same number—or KS signs for much less than a high quality alternative. I still prefer not to have both JD and KS, and would prefer a more complete player in place of one of them. Yeah, that's basically right, except I don't mean any of these as "assumptions" - just as one way they might plausibly go.
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 4, 2021 12:44:38 GMT -5
Looking around the AL, TOR appears to be a perfect candidate for giving JDM a 2-3 year contract this off-season. There's a DH spot available to him (Springer to CF, Grichuk to the bench); they have a ton of young hitters who could benefit from his tutelage; the team knows that their window is open and they need to strike now (they're 8 games off their Pythagorean W-L record -- EIGHT!). New manager, veteran bat, they could be a monster next year. If I can identify that in 10 minutes, Boras has probably already been talking to the Jays brass. The A's could use JDM too but are less likely to spend even on that short a contract. Toronto is paying Grichuk ~10M a year through 2023. You think they'd rather pay Grichuk 10M to be on the bench and JD 15-20M per for three years rather than play Grichuk and save or use elsewhere that $15-20M? When they also have Lourdes Gurriel who's 27? Grichuk is bad.
Just because he's overpaid doesn't mean you're locked into playing him every day. Shouldn't matter unless TOR cares more about saving money than about winning.
Gourriel stays in LF, Teoscar in RF, Springer plays CF every day, JD DH, and Grichuk as the 4th OF or traded. And it's not like JD would be a huge investment for them. Seems like a no-Brainer (henceforth known as a "no-Bonaci") to me.
EDIT: I'm actually afraid to even work out what their batting order would look like...
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 4, 2021 12:50:39 GMT -5
What assumptions are you making here? Here is how I see what you are bringing about. Please correct me. I may have it all wrong. 1. Dalbec is the 1B if he keeps hitting but Schwarber will get PT there. 2. The possible defensive shortcomings of either JDM or KS in the OF almost every day is more than offset by their hitting, and by late inning replacements as appropriate. 3. JD neither opts out nor gets traded. And the Sox sign KS rather than someone else at roughly the same number—or KS signs for much less than a high quality alternative. I still prefer not to have both JD and KS, and would prefer a more complete player in place of one of them. Yeah, that's basically right, except I don't mean any of these as "assumptions" - just as one way they might plausibly go. Agreed, one possible scenario. Of course, the first domino to fall will be JD's player option. Obviously, I think he'll opt out... and when he does, I think Chaim will target someone with more speed and defense like Starling Marte, in addition to Schwarber.
They've managed to stay just under the tax threshold this year; if they don't start spending again on big-time players, the fans are going to riot.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 4, 2021 12:54:14 GMT -5
Are we sure Perez’s $5.5M team option next year won’t be excercized? He hasn’t been very good this year, but cheap starting pitching depth is always useful and a trade is always an option.
|
|
|
Post by vokuhila on Sept 4, 2021 12:59:08 GMT -5
I always thought there was a possibility that the RS exercise the option and trade him. The return would be marginal...but that's CBs wheelhouse...
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 4, 2021 12:59:14 GMT -5
Are we sure Perez’s $5.5M team option next year won’t be excercized? He hasn’t been very good this year, but cheap starting pitching depth is always useful and a trade is always an option. I think Chaim tries the same thing with Perez that he did last off-season: Deny the club option and then try to re-sign him at a lower rate, say $2-3m. If he can get more elsewhere, God bless him.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,980
|
Post by jimoh on Sept 4, 2021 13:32:05 GMT -5
Toronto is paying Grichuk ~10M a year through 2023. You think they'd rather pay Grichuk 10M to be on the bench and JD 15-20M per for three years rather than play Grichuk and save or use elsewhere that $15-20M? When they also have Lourdes Gurriel who's 27? Grichuk is bad.
Just because he's overpaid doesn't mean you're locked into playing him every day. Shouldn't matter unless TOR cares more about saving money than about winning.
Gourriel stays in LF, Teoscar in RF, Springer plays CF every day, JD DH, and Grichuk as the 4th OF or traded. And it's not like JD would be a huge investment for them. Seems like a no-Brainer (henceforth known as a "no-Bonaci") to me.
EDIT: I'm actually afraid to even work out what their batting order would look like...
You have not identified a hole. You're just saying that paying JD 20M in a multi-year deal and Grichuk 10M is better than paying Grichuk 10M and letting all four OF (and others) rotate through DH. The upgrade from Grichuk to an apparently declining JD is not even close to being a no-brainer, given the cost. Who would guarantee money to 2023 JD, much less 2024 JD?
|
|
|