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2020-21 Non-Red Sox Offseason Thread
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 17, 2021 21:38:40 GMT -5
It makes so much sense to lock in a generational talent like that and take the risk, though, if you can fit him in the payroll. He's still pre-arb, so I'm sure in real salary it's very backloaded, but the AAV savings in years 5 onwards could be huge.
Huge risk though.
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 17, 2021 22:14:02 GMT -5
It makes so much sense to lock in a generational talent like that and take the risk, though, if you can fit him in the payroll. He's still pre-arb, so I'm sure in real salary it's very backloaded, but the AAV savings in years 5 onwards could be huge. Huge risk though. Baseball Trade Values has the deal at $270M surplus value. Obviously a lot of that is due to eating 1 pre Arb year and 3 Arb years but that’s still a mind blowing number. Considering no opt outs it looks like a great deal for the Pads on the surface.
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Post by foreverred9 on Feb 17, 2021 22:19:22 GMT -5
Agreed, I'm trying to think about how to calibrate for Tatis. At a minimum, we should strip out his last pre-arb year and call it 1 year at 1M followed by 339 for 13 years. So that would put him at 26M per year, which would put him at the 20th highest salary in 2021.
For reference, 14 years ago the 20th highest AAV was 14 million - today that AAV is now the 80th highest. So expect Tatis to drift about 5 spots per year from 20th highest paid to 80th highest paid. That should be good value for the Padres if he stays healthy, in shape, and productive.
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 17, 2021 22:24:41 GMT -5
Agreed, I'm trying to think about how to calibrate for Tatis. At a minimum, we should strip out his last pre-arb year and call it 1 year at 1M followed by 339 for 13 years. So that would put him at 26M per year, which would put him at the 20th highest salary in 2021. For reference, 14 years ago the 20th highest AAV was 14 million - today that AAV is now the 80th highest. So expect Tatis to drift about 5 spots per year from 20th highest paid to 80th highest paid. That should be good value for the Padres if he stays healthy, in shape, and productive. To your point even if he is not productive in his last 3 seasons (Age 32, 33, 34; all ages where he could still plausibly be a very very good player), he’s probably making $30M cash in each of those three years on the backend which by then won’t be a substantial sum (presumably). I don’t really see this becoming an albatross contract by any means, barring something crazy.
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Post by Coreno on Feb 17, 2021 23:05:51 GMT -5
Kind of incredible that Tatis has played less than a full season's worth of games and already has more career WAR than his dad, who was a solid player who played over a decade.
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Post by Jimmy on Feb 17, 2021 23:19:30 GMT -5
CBT question: I’m sure Padres are insuring Tatis’ contract against injury, limiting cash based risk. However, God forbid he had a career ending injury in year 1 of the 14 year deal, does his AAV still count against CBT for the next 14 years? Just trying to gauge the risk. I know Pedroia is still counting against, so had me thinking.
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Post by foreverred9 on Feb 17, 2021 23:45:48 GMT -5
Good question - I think this will be one for Chris to see if there's a clause in the CBA, but I don't see how it's any different than the Pedroia situation.
You got me down a rabbit hole wondering what happened when Yordano Ventura died with 3 years remaining on his deal. It's inconclusive and complicated since KC seems to have voided the contract (which is in dispute with his estate), but from what I can see Cot's doesn't have it in their 2019 luxury tax calc.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 18, 2021 0:37:52 GMT -5
Agreed, I'm trying to think about how to calibrate for Tatis. At a minimum, we should strip out his last pre-arb year and call it 1 year at 1M followed by 339 for 13 years. So that would put him at 26M per year, which would put him at the 20th highest salary in 2021. For reference, 14 years ago the 20th highest AAV was 14 million - today that AAV is now the 80th highest. So expect Tatis to drift about 5 spots per year from 20th highest paid to 80th highest paid. That should be good value for the Padres if he stays healthy, in shape, and productive. To your point even if he is not productive in his last 3 seasons (Age 32, 33, 34; all ages where he could still plausibly be a very very good player), he’s probably making $30M cash in each of those three years on the backend which by then won’t be a substantial sum (presumably). I don’t really see this becoming an albatross contract by any means, barring something crazy. I highly dout the Padres will be paying those salaries
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Post by greenmonster on Feb 18, 2021 7:16:50 GMT -5
CBT question: I’m sure Padres are insuring Tatis’ contract against injury, limiting cash based risk. However, God forbid he had a career ending injury in year 1 of the 14 year deal, does his AAV still count against CBT for the next 14 years? Just trying to gauge the risk. I know Pedroia is still counting against, so had me thinking. How would that scenario be different from Dustin Pedroia other than the amounts?
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,982
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Post by jimoh on Feb 18, 2021 8:27:57 GMT -5
Joel Sherman @joelsherman1
The #Padres infield of Hosmer ($144), Ha-Seong Kim ($28M), Tatis Jr. ($340M) and Machado ($300M) — the $812M infield.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Feb 18, 2021 8:57:27 GMT -5
Yet here we are.........................
Good for Tatis.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 18, 2021 10:07:18 GMT -5
Mitch Moreland signed a one-year deal with the A's, per Passan.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 18, 2021 10:17:23 GMT -5
Mitch Moreland signed a one-year deal with the A's, per Passan. That's too bad. That tells me the Sox will probably go with a 3 man bench and a 14 man pitching staff. They could have used Moreland. Now if Dalbec struggles the Sox wind up with Gonzalez at 1b.
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Post by greenmonster on Feb 18, 2021 10:27:02 GMT -5
Mitch Moreland signed a one-year deal with the A's, per Passan. That's too bad. That tells me the Sox will probably go with a 3 man bench and a 14 man pitching staff. They could have used Moreland. Now if Dalbec struggles the Sox wind up with Gonzalez at 1b. I suppose Chavis is an option as well
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 18, 2021 10:29:51 GMT -5
That's too bad. That tells me the Sox will probably go with a 3 man bench and a 14 man pitching staff. They could have used Moreland. Now if Dalbec struggles the Sox wind up with Gonzalez at 1b. I suppose Chavis is an option as well Yeah, a tertiary option I'd think. I would anticipate that he spends a lot of time in Worcester and if Dalbec goes bad they could turn to Chavis, but I think ultimately he'll wind up being traded. Meanwhile Moreland should get a steady diet of ABs as the LH hitting platoon half of the DH role, so he should get his 400 ABs, something he wouldn't get with the Red Sox. Of course if Oakland struggles, he could find himself traded again at the deadline.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 18, 2021 10:48:55 GMT -5
I suppose Chavis is an option as well Yeah, a tertiary option I'd think. I would anticipate that he spends a lot of time in Worcester and if Dalbec goes bad they could turn to Chavis, but I think ultimately he'll wind up being traded. Meanwhile Moreland should get a steady diet of ABs as the LH hitting platoon half of the DH role, so he should get his 400 ABs, something he wouldn't get with the Red Sox. Of course if Oakland struggles, he could find himself traded again at the deadline. I really hope Munoz is the other guy on the bench if they are going to be using the rotate guys at all these positions, like every OF ,2b and if Devers is throwing the ball everywhere, except near 1b when he fields it. Having 3 guys capable of fielding 6-7 positions would be invaluable and can hit, rather than an offensively challenged Arroyo and Chavis needs to work on his approach at AAA again. Who cares if someone claims Arroyo off waivers. gruillon was a bigger loss and that wasn't much really.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Feb 18, 2021 11:00:08 GMT -5
A's also get Trevor Rosenthal for 1 year/$11 mil, per Heyman.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 18, 2021 11:09:20 GMT -5
A's also get Trevor Rosenthal for 1 year/$11 mil, per Heyman. The A's had themselves a nice day. $11 million sounds like a lot, but if that guy's healthy, he'll be really good and it's only a one year deal.
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Post by manfred on Feb 18, 2021 11:30:48 GMT -5
A's also get Trevor Rosenthal for 1 year/$11 mil, per Heyman. The A's had themselves a nice day. $11 million sounds like a lot, but if that guy's healthy, he'll be really good and it's only a one year deal. Pretty risky amount! I loved Rosenthal at the start of the winter, but that is too rich for my blood. The Ottavino deal looks all the better to me.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Feb 18, 2021 11:58:31 GMT -5
The A's had themselves a nice day. $11 million sounds like a lot, but if that guy's healthy, he'll be really good and it's only a one year deal. Pretty risky amount! I loved Rosenthal at the start of the winter, but that is too rich for my blood. The Ottavino deal looks all the better to me. It is, but it's only for one year. I think Rosenthal will be really good, better than Ottavino, but for the Red Sox, trying to fill in as many holes as they can given their budget they probably were better off taking Ottavino for cheaper and then having German added to it. That doesn't mean that I think Ottavino is better or that I'd rather have him. I think Rosenthal would be the no doubt about it closer with the Sox, but given the Sox' circumstances, you're basically getting Ottavino, German, plus Sawamura instead, so it makes sense for Boston. Still, I would like to see the Sox get Jeffress, but I think they'll wind up with either Roe or Heller instead.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Feb 18, 2021 22:10:35 GMT -5
CBT question: I’m sure Padres are insuring Tatis’ contract against injury, limiting cash based risk. However, God forbid he had a career ending injury in year 1 of the 14 year deal, does his AAV still count against CBT for the next 14 years? Just trying to gauge the risk. I know Pedroia is still counting against, so had me thinking. I don't see why it wouldn't. Contract is guaranteed.
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Post by blizzards39 on Feb 18, 2021 22:59:23 GMT -5
CBT question: I’m sure Padres are insuring Tatis’ contract against injury, limiting cash based risk. However, God forbid he had a career ending injury in year 1 of the 14 year deal, does his AAV still count against CBT for the next 14 years? Just trying to gauge the risk. I know Pedroia is still counting against, so had me thinking. I don't see why it wouldn't. Contract is guaranteed. I highly dout this will ever be a concern of the Padres. And yet a lot can happen in 14 years. I’m further going to go out on a limb and say Tatis will be traded well before the end of this deal.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Feb 19, 2021 8:39:25 GMT -5
Walker signed. flurry now that players are beginning to show up at camp. Boras and JBJ going to be the 1 standing when music stops? Walker with Mets
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Post by fenwaymabe on Feb 19, 2021 17:11:13 GMT -5
Old friend Brandon Workman signed with the Cubs for 1 million. I like the move for them. At that price, I would have loved to have him back in Boston. I wish him well.
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Post by fenwaymabe on Feb 19, 2021 17:17:43 GMT -5
I do love the Tatis extension by the Padres. Superstar talents only come along once in a blue moon and these are the types of chances that small/mid-market teams must take in order to compete financially. Yes, it's a big risk if he gets hurt, but even if he can't man SS, he will be able to DH when they finally bring it to the NL in the next CBA. Now he becomes the face of their franchise and the marketing opps will be endless. Good move for both parties imo.
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