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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 21, 2020 15:07:49 GMT -5
Is there a list of best BPAs for the Dec. Rule 5 draft? Looks like the Sox fared well in the last with Arauz. Last year MLB.com had a list up on 11/28.
BA does a very comprehensive list that should appear at about the same time.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 21, 2020 15:19:09 GMT -5
Is there a list of best BPAs for the Dec. Rule 5 draft? Looks like the Sox fared well in the last with Arauz. Last year MLB.com had a list up on 11/28. BA does a very comprehensive list that should appear at about the same time.
Thanks, Eric. I’ll look for them. Sox could choose again after opening up a roster spot.
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Post by soxaddict on Nov 21, 2020 22:14:58 GMT -5
Here are a few intriguing names. Joel KuhnelP | B/T: R/R | 6' 4" 280LBS | Age: 25 Draft: 2016 | Rd: 11, #318, Cincinnati Reds | Texas-Arlington StatsRiley PintP | B/T: R/R | 6' 5" 225LBS | Age: 23 Draft: 2016 | Rd: 1, #4, Colorado Rockies | St. Thomas Aquinas (KS) HS StatsEver MoyaP | B/T: L/L | 6' 5" 220LBS | Age: 21 StatsBrewer HicklenOF | B/T: R/R | 6' 2" 208LBS | Age: 24 Draft: 2017 | Rd: 7, #210, Kansas City Royals | Alabama-Birmingham StatsBrett de GeusP | B/T: R/R | 6' 2" 190LBS | Age: 23 Draft: 2017 | Rd: 33, #1000, Los Angeles Dodgers | Cabrillo CC, CA StatsCody ThomasRF | B/T: L/R | 6' 4" 211LBS | Age: 26 Draft: 2016 | Rd: 13, #401, Los Angeles Dodgers | Oklahoma StatsZack BrownP | B/T: R/R | 6' 1" 199LBS | Age: 25 Draft: 2016 | Rd: 5, #141, Milwaukee Brewers | Kentucky Stats
Buddy ReedCF | B/T: S/R | 6' 4" 218LBS | Age: 25 Draft: 2016 | Rd: 2, #48, San Diego Padres | Florida StatsRoel RamirezP | B/T: R/R | 6' 0" 235LBS | Age: 25 Draft: 2013 | Rd: 8, #248, Tampa Bay Rays | United South (TX) HS Stats
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Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 22, 2020 0:38:55 GMT -5
Great work, thank you for the list and the effort.
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Post by soxaddict on Nov 22, 2020 3:17:34 GMT -5
Great work, thank you for the list and the effort. You're welcome. I've had a decent night at work, and a minor Red Sox addiction. From that list, here are my top two. Buddy Reed, CF (fangraphs) Reed was a lightly-scouted multi-sport high school athlete in Maryland who also played hockey before he arrived at the University of Florida. Soon after he stepped on campus, scouts saw and become enamored with his enormous athletic potential. He has 70 speed and defensive ability in center field, along with a 60 arm and average raw power. As a 6-foot-4, 210 pound athletic specimen, he’ll probably play forever as a fourth outfielder in the Jake Marisnick mold. Joel Kuhnel, RHP (fangraphs) Kuhnel wasn’t a top draft prospect coming out of Texas-Arlington; he had a maxed-out, bulky frame, inconsistent command, and just average stuff for a right-handed reliever. In 2018, he took a big step forward. His fastball jumped 3-4 ticks and hit 101, and his slider improved into an above-average pitch, though he really struggled to get it to his glove side last year. He’s a major league-ready power relief prospect.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 22, 2020 4:53:45 GMT -5
Great work, thank you for the list and the effort. You're welcome. I've had a decent night at work, and a minor Red Sox addiction. From that list, here are my top two. Buddy Reed, CF (fangraphs) Reed was a lightly-scouted multi-sport high school athlete in Maryland who also played hockey before he arrived at the University of Florida. Soon after he stepped on campus, scouts saw and become enamored with his enormous athletic potential. He has 70 speed and defensive ability in center field, along with a 60 arm and average raw power. As a 6-foot-4, 210 pound athletic specimen, he’ll probably play forever as a fourth outfielder in the Jake Marisnick mold. Joel Kuhnel, RHP (fangraphs) Kuhnel wasn’t a top draft prospect coming out of Texas-Arlington; he had a maxed-out, bulky frame, inconsistent command, and just average stuff for a right-handed reliever. In 2018, he took a big step forward. His fastball jumped 3-4 ticks and hit 101, and his slider improved into an above-average pitch, though he really struggled to get it to his glove side last year. He’s a major league-ready power relief prospect. Reed was at the A's ATS but they didn't protect him while leaving 5 open spots. His bat seems no to be there yet.
Kuhnel's definitely interesting but the Reds outrighted him after he made 3 appearances, and have 4 open spots left. OTOH, it's much more credible that they don't know what they're doing than it is for the A's.
The obvious chocie for a pick here is a guy who can compete for the last spot in the bullpen, a/k/a the Ryan Pressley Strategy.
I found 12 pitchers who are top 30 prospects, whose teams left 0 or 1 spots open, and who pitched in high-A or above in 2019. Two are on your list -- Zack Brown, Mil and Roel Ramirez, StL (both teams left 1 open spot).
I'll have the other 10 names tomorrow ...
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rasimon
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Post by rasimon on Nov 22, 2020 6:06:08 GMT -5
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 22, 2020 7:12:25 GMT -5
I'd take a dart throw at Pint. Easily the best upside if they can fix his delivery. He could use a change of scenery.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 22, 2020 11:40:41 GMT -5
Out on Pint. He's not been good since being drafted. It'd be one thing if he'd shown a flash at some point in pro ball but he really hasn't.
Let's all remember that stashing a player for a 60-game season who isn't useful, especially a 60-game season in which you aren't competing, is MUCH easier than stashing a player for a 162-game season in which, for now at least, they're claiming they want to compete. If the Red Sox take a Rule 5 pick this year, it's likely in the more typical bullpen/4th outfielder mold than in the Arauz "prospect who's going to eat up a roster spot all year and you hope his development won't be completely f-ed by the experience" mold. At least in my estimation.
Of course, they selected Arauz before they knew it'd be a 60-game season, so I very well could be wrong.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Nov 22, 2020 12:04:55 GMT -5
I'd be shocked if the season was 162 in 2021, vaccine won't come soon enough. There could be more rule 5's selected for this reason (easier to stash in shortened season). Also 26 man rosters now.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 22, 2020 12:48:51 GMT -5
First, it turns out that there is a super significant correlation (p = .005) between how many players a team protected and their post-trade-deadline farm system ranking, according to Bleacher Report (only folks who did one I can find). If you add my prior finding that the top teams in the draft tended to fill their rosters, it's p < .001.
You can use this to identify three teams that seem really unlikely to have left anyone good unprotected:
Nats (30 system, 7 open spots) A's (28 system, 5 open spots, savvy Cubs (27 system, 3 open spots, savvy)
As I mentioned earlier, I found 12 pitchers who were top 30 prospects, whose teams left 0 or 1 open spots, and who pitched in high-A or better in 2019.
And this is not random: of the 8 guys who project to be starters, 7 are from teams with top 13 farm systems, and the exception is the one guy who had a 2022 ETA according to MLB.com (the Cardinal's Alvaro Seijas). The average guy is from a team with a #7 farm system rank. The four relievers are all from teams ranked 15th or worse, and the average guy is from the 21st ranked system.
So, who do you want for the last man in the pen: a better prospect because he has solid back-of-rotation upside, who was only left unprotected because they had no room for him? Or a lesser prospect who was left unprotected in a weaker system because he projects to be a reliever? The first type would likely be relegated to mop-up, while the second type might actually help you win games.
The four relievers. While these seem to be ranked by highest level pitched at, I actually tried to put them in order of appeal, with Brown and Stephan a close call.
Roel Ramirez, Cardinals #27 in #22 system (1 open spot), MLB. 60 FB, 55 splitter. Zack Brown, Brewers, #14 in #26 system (1 open), AAA. 55 FB, 60 curve,
Will Kincanon, White Sox #29 in #15 system (0 open), high-A. 55 FB and slider.
I'll do the starters at some point later ...
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 22, 2020 13:18:57 GMT -5
Roel Ramirez is the option that jumps off the page to me.
Poor guy had an all-time bad debut lol- 4 homers allowed in 2/3 of an inning. Can only go up!
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Post by greenmonster on Nov 22, 2020 15:56:07 GMT -5
A couple of the guys from that list that caught my attention:
Roel Ramirez - Mid 90's fastball with complimentary split-finger. Mulit inning reliever with K/9 over 10 and reasonable BB rate at AAA. Given that he was in the Rays organization, you gotta figure Bloom is pretty familiar with him.
Buddy Reed - Rhode Island roots...Plus defender that could play all three OF positions. Elite speed. The main question appears to be, is the bat ready for a jump from AA?
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Post by lennsakata on Nov 22, 2020 20:34:33 GMT -5
First, it turns out that there is a super significant correlation (p = .005) between how many players a team protected and their post-trade-deadline farm system ranking, according to Bleacher Report (only folks who did one I can find). If you add my prior finding that the top teams in the draft tended to fill their rosters, it's p < .001.
You can use this to identify three teams that seem really unlikely to have left anyone good unprotected: Nats (30 system, 7 open spots) A's (28 system, 5 open spots, savvy Cubs (27 system, 3 open spots, savvy) As I mentioned earlier, I found 12 pitchers who were top 30 prospects, whose teams left 0 or 1 open spots, and who pitched in high-A or better in 2019.
And this is not random: of the 8 guys who project to be starters, 7 are from teams with top 13 farm systems, and the exception is the one guy who had a 2022 ETA according to MLB.com (the Cardinal's Alvaro Seijas). The average guy is from a team with a #7 farm system rank. The four relievers are all from teams ranked 15th or worse, and the average guy is from the 21st ranked system.
So, who do you want for the last man in the pen: a better prospect because he has solid back-of-rotation upside, who was only left unprotected because they had no room for him? Or a lesser prospect who was left unprotected in a weaker system because he projects to be a reliever? The first type would likely be relegated to mop-up, while the second type might actually help you win games. The four relievers. While these seem to be ranked by highest level pitched at, I actually tried to put them in order of appeal, with Brown and Stephan a close call.
Roel Ramirez, Cardinals #27 in #22 system (1 open spot), MLB. 60 FB, 55 splitter. Zack Brown, Brewers, #14 in #26 system (1 open), AAA. 55 FB, 60 curve, Will Kincanon, White Sox #29 in #15 system (0 open), high-A. 55 FB and slider. I'll do the starters at some point later ...
I think I like Brett de Geus the most out of the pen arms. Sounds like a good 3 pitch mix out of the pen, good control and was coming on real strong in his move to the pen In 2019 and was lights out of the AFL at the end of that season. MLB has him with a 60 fb, 60 curve, 55 slider...good ground ball and k rates with 1.9 bb/9 in 2019 www.mlb.com/prospects/dodgers/brett-de-geus-676969www.si.com/mlb/dodgers/news/dodgers-prospect-watch-brett-de-geus
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Nov 24, 2020 9:59:44 GMT -5
There are only a handful of players around mlb going through waivers this week. Players DFA to make room for Friday's additions.
I wouldn't expect Sox to pick anyone up.
We'll see where Renfroe, RAYS Nunez, BALT end up.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 24, 2020 11:26:04 GMT -5
There are only a handful of players around mlb going through waivers this week. Players DFA to make room for Friday's additions. I wouldn't expect Sox to pick anyone up. We'll see where Renfroe, RAYS Nunez, BALT end up. If anybody it would be Renfroe with the idea of Verdugo moving to CF. I don't think it's particularly likely. Renfroe has some serious pop but cannot hit and ideally Verdugo remains in RF, but if the Sox don't re-sign JBJ (don't think they will), they might have to consider getting a corner OF and moving Verdugo to CF and hope that Duran is ready sooner than later.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 24, 2020 11:27:17 GMT -5
First, it turns out that there is a super significant correlation (p = .005) between how many players a team protected and their post-trade-deadline farm system ranking, according to Bleacher Report (only folks who did one I can find). If you add my prior finding that the top teams in the draft tended to fill their rosters, it's p < .001.
You can use this to identify three teams that seem really unlikely to have left anyone good unprotected: Nats (30 system, 7 open spots) A's (28 system, 5 open spots, savvy Cubs (27 system, 3 open spots, savvy) As I mentioned earlier, I found 12 pitchers who were top 30 prospects, whose teams left 0 or 1 open spots, and who pitched in high-A or better in 2019.
And this is not random: of the 8 guys who project to be starters, 7 are from teams with top 13 farm systems, and the exception is the one guy who had a 2022 ETA according to MLB.com (the Cardinal's Alvaro Seijas). The average guy is from a team with a #7 farm system rank. The four relievers are all from teams ranked 15th or worse, and the average guy is from the 21st ranked system.
So, who do you want for the last man in the pen: a better prospect because he has solid back-of-rotation upside, who was only left unprotected because they had no room for him? Or a lesser prospect who was left unprotected in a weaker system because he projects to be a reliever? The first type would likely be relegated to mop-up, while the second type might actually help you win games. The four relievers. While these seem to be ranked by highest level pitched at, I actually tried to put them in order of appeal, with Brown and Stephan a close call.
Roel Ramirez, Cardinals #27 in #22 system (1 open spot), MLB. 60 FB, 55 splitter. Zack Brown, Brewers, #14 in #26 system (1 open), AAA. 55 FB, 60 curve, Will Kincanon, White Sox #29 in #15 system (0 open), high-A. 55 FB and slider. I'll do the starters at some point later ...
I think I like Brett de Geus the most out of the pen arms. Sounds like a good 3 pitch mix out of the pen, good control and was coming on real strong in his move to the pen In 2019 and was lights out of the AFL at the end of that season. MLB has him with a 60 fb, 60 curve, 55 slider...good ground ball and k rates with 1.9 bb/9 in 2019 www.mlb.com/prospects/dodgers/brett-de-geus-676969www.si.com/mlb/dodgers/news/dodgers-prospect-watch-brett-de-geusMost of those scouting reports don't reflect how guys looked or fared at the ATS, and the fact that the Dodgers left three spots open (only 3 teams left more) suggests he wasn't impressive. But that's just a guess and a caveat.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 24, 2020 11:35:49 GMT -5
I want to point out that a guy who can help you immediately handling the 6th inning when needed is of no use to a rebuilding team. The Pirates, Rangers, and Tigers will be looking to steal a future regular position player or SP by finding a guy with upside that there was no room to protect.
So we will likely have a shot at the best unprotected relief prospect in all of MLB ... which is why I'm penciling in the last bullpen spot for him.
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rasimon
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Post by rasimon on Nov 27, 2020 3:40:55 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 27, 2020 10:01:49 GMT -5
Chad Jennings pick in the Rule 5 category: A Rule 5 pick with a huge arm Jose Alberto Rivera
After the Red Sox kept a Rule 5 pick last winter, it’s worth considering a Rule 5 pick again this year. When the Sox took Jonathan Araúz in 2019, he fit an obvious need for infield depth. This winter, the Red Sox clearly have their eyes on pitching depth, and Rivera stands out as a guy who could be worth a shot. The Astros right-hander is 23 years old with huge velocity and not-completely-terrible control. Keith Law’s scouting report says: “Rivera has been up to 100 and can sit at 96 as a starter with a hard slider and plus splitter.” The Astros basically have trained him to be a piggyback starter or long reliever, which could fit the Red Sox needs. They’ll have to open a 40-man spot to take a flyer on him, but that velocity would make him an interesting candidate in spring training. theathletic.com/2220705/2020/11/27/red-sox-black-friday-bargains/?source=dailyemail. . . Sounds intriguing to me.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 27, 2020 10:15:08 GMT -5
Intriguing but he's also never played above Low A. That's a pretty big ask of a player.
That said, big arm with control issues clearly fits the Bloom archetype.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 27, 2020 10:22:39 GMT -5
Still only 23, 3 pitch mix with 2 plus pitches potential, future starter potential and "not-completely-terrible control". Seems like more than you could hope for in a Rule 5 pick.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 27, 2020 10:36:46 GMT -5
BA's scouting report says 97-102, mid-80s split-change that flashed plus, mid-80s slider that isn't good. Signed late, chance to throw strikes. no. 19 in their midseason list for Houston.
FG has a 70 FB, 55 curve, 50 present/55 future splitter, 40/45 command, 40+ FV, ranked him 12th in their system pre-2020.
Yeah, I'd be on board with it. Let him bomb fastballs in one-inning outings. Everything I'm reading says future reliever they were giving a chance to stretch out, not as an actual MLB long-relief candidate. For reference, the piggyback thing is what the Astros do with all of their starters in the low minors.
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Post by electricityverdugo99 on Nov 27, 2020 16:21:24 GMT -5
The Sox should be all over a reliever after picking a bench bat last season. Shortened season and a 26 man roster. Top pick at the rule 5 draft (4th overall), the Sox should be able to pick one of the top arms and keep him all year.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 27, 2020 20:05:49 GMT -5
Chad Jennings pick in the Rule 5 category: A Rule 5 pick with a huge arm Jose Alberto Rivera
After the Red Sox kept a Rule 5 pick last winter, it’s worth considering a Rule 5 pick again this year. When the Sox took Jonathan Araúz in 2019, he fit an obvious need for infield depth. This winter, the Red Sox clearly have their eyes on pitching depth, and Rivera stands out as a guy who could be worth a shot. The Astros right-hander is 23 years old with huge velocity and not-completely-terrible control. Keith Law’s scouting report says: “Rivera has been up to 100 and can sit at 96 as a starter with a hard slider and plus splitter.” The Astros basically have trained him to be a piggyback starter or long reliever, which could fit the Red Sox needs. They’ll have to open a 40-man spot to take a flyer on him, but that velocity would make him an interesting candidate in spring training. theathletic.com/2220705/2020/11/27/red-sox-black-friday-bargains/?source=dailyemail. . . Sounds intriguing to me. BA's scouting report says 97-102, mid-80s split-change that flashed plus, mid-80s slider that isn't good. Signed late, chance to throw strikes. no. 19 in their midseason list for Houston. FG has a 70 FB, 55 curve, 50 present/55 future splitter, 40/45 command, 40+ FV, ranked him 12th in their system pre-2020. Yeah, I'd be on board with it. Let him bomb fastballs in one-inning outings. Everything I'm reading says future reliever they were giving a chance to stretch out, not as an actual MLB long-relief candidate. For reference, the piggyback thing is what the Astros do with all of their starters in the low minors. At first glance, the 3.81 ERA in low-A would give you pause. The Major League Equivalent of that is terrifying.
However, he had a 9.92 ERA in his first 5 outings, with a .361 / .434 / .556 allowed. The rest of the way he had a 2.12 ERA (2.58 RA) and allowed .172 / .271 / .222. Total dominance ....
Except, how the heck did he allow 17 runs in 59.1 IP with that slash line? The full-season splits have a clue:
.177 / .290 / .259 bases empty .282 / .346 / .376 runners on.
So after game 5 he was dominant out of the windup but merely solid out of the stretch. MLB hitters will get him into the stretch much, much more quickly than low-A hitters. It projects to be ugly.
You really want a mop-up guy who can sometimes keep you in the game, and who is not a huge risk when mopping-up a big lead, rather than a guy who almost always turns a a likely loss into a certain one and can't be trusted with a lead of any size.
Now, if they've looked at him and have some stretch mechanics tweaks they want to try, maybe. But I would still hate to pass up the best current-projection, actually useful reliever with the 4 pick.
But what if they cleared two roster spots and hope they get a chance at him with their second pick? A lot of teams pass, even in the first round. And since the second cut would be a guy they are going to trim anyway the moment they sign a FA (or Pedroia), there's no downside.
But this is exactly the sort of guy a rebuilding team might grab with one of the first three picks.
But opening up two roster spots anyway might be a good idea.
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