Patriots 2021 Offseason Thread

Over the last few days, I have run the pff simulation draft, playing the Pats, a ridiculous number of times (well over 50 times) and the best strategy is definitely trade down. When I first played I just took the best available player with each pick. With pick 15 you can get a star or potential star. With pick 46 you can get a solid starter. But the next pick is not until 96. If you are willing to trade down a few slots over and over and over again, you can accumulate some ridiculously good drafts or stockpile future picks. I eventually restricted myself to only trading when others request trades and only picking when no trades were offered to me.

My last draft:

Kyle Trask QB Florida
Aaron Robinson CB UCF
Jamar Johnson S Indiana
David Mills QB Stanford. Yeah I took 2 QBs
Jamin Davis LB Kentucky
Jamie Sherwood S Auburn
Cade Johnson WR South Dakota State
Tay Gowan CB UCF
Tommy Tremble TE Notre Dame
Chris Evans HB Michigan

That doesn't look so impressive ...but I also accumulated the following additional future picks for the 2022 and 2023 drafts:

6 additional future 1st round picks
4 additional future 2nd round picks
4 additional future 3rd round picks
2 additional future 4th round picks
Gave up 2 7th round picks

I would then be going into the 2022 draft and the 2023 draft having for each draft 4 firsts, 3 seconds, 3 thirds, 2 fourths, 1 fifth, 1 sixth, 2 sevenths in 2022 and 1 seventh in 2023.

I probably didnt make the best selections when I actually selected (Im not a football scout) but the trade down strategy is definitely the way to win pff.

While the "big names" aren't updating their mocks yet, some are admitting more chatter about Fields at 3 which would make more sense than Jones.

www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/nfl-mock-draft-2021-complete-7-round-edition-pairs-patriots-bears-washington-with-new-qbs-after-top-picks/ar-BB1fBw4F?ocid=mmx

This might be my favorite mock I've seen.

Parsons in the first, Moore in the second, then Robinson and Thomas at CB, Hill a RB I really like, Darden another electric WR, Mond in the 5th, couple of DT for depth and another WR because that's just the value of the draft. I would change a few things, like flipping Hill for Mund, I would have taken a different WR than Palmer, minor things.

Not a huge fan of Mund in the 2nd, yet I am a huge fan in the 4th/5th. Nice to see I'm not the only one that thinks we should attack the strengths of the draft with multiple picks at WR and CB.

I love E. Moore... I’d be excited about him in the second round. Mond in the 5th would be a nice add...

I love Parsons but I’m falling in love with Jaycee Horn at 15...

If the Jets walked out with Wilson, Horn and Collins with their first 3 picks I’d be a little jealous.

Compared to what? Don't be fooled Book can make a lot of throws Cam Newton can't make. Takeout the Seahawks game and Books down field passing is about what you got with Newton. It's not so much his arm strength, yet his accuracy. Yet inside 35 yards, he can make every throw in a way Newton can't because he doesn't have Books accuracy.

I get it, we've spent months talking about getting a franchise QB and that's not Book. Yet I'd say don't discount the value of a good backup QB that fits our system. You can't get a top guy or don't like other options, Book is a great value play to add to our team.

He's like Russell Wilson without a rocket for an arm. He's a lot like Wilson running. If you love Mac Jones for all those things people like about him, smarts, intelligence, football IQ, limiting mistakes and making the right plays that is Book. Notre Dame's offense is similar to our offense, it was about moving the ball, not making HR type throws. He's darn good at that.

A lot of this is context, Book is a late round pick. If you can't find a QB, why not take him? He's played in the second most games of any QB in the draft. He's as pro ready as any QB in the draft and the big kicker is he played lacrosse and we know how Bill loves his lacrosse players. Ian Book looks rather attractive when Cam Newton is your starter and only an unproven Stidham is on the roster. I wouldn't be surprised to see Book have a long career as a good backup QB and that has value. If you don't trust me, trust the guy who wrote the article, he called Notre Dame games.

If they’re drafting him to be a backup then by all means, I just don’t want to see people start listing him as a possible solution. He would admittedly be a better fit here than he would be in most spots as they won’t try to have him win on the outside and will keep things short/intermediate over the middle. But I just don’t think he has an NFL arm and I think if he tries to use his feet like he did in college he’ll get killed

The point on drafting a QB late who “projects as a baxkup” is because you want as many bites of the apple at that position as possible. I remember a late round QB who was 4th on the depth chart one year that worked out pretty well.

You know more about Book than me so I'll defer to your opinion. From what I've read he was often too eager to abandon his progressions and resort to playground style quarterbacking. If that's due to necessity and poor protection that certainly changes the narrative. I do acknowledge Mac Jones is a bit of a question mark due to his supporting cast, but Joe Burrow and Tua had similar talent surrounding them and didn't get nearly as much doubt for it. Ultimately I agree though, I think Jones needs a good system/coach fit and above average supporting cast to be a successful starter in the NFL.

I don't think the completion percentage was all about easier drop down passes to the RBs and Meyers. Brady utilized the RB's on high percentage passes more than Cam, and White wasn't nearly as good in 2020. Again, Cam had more yards per attempt. Yes, his inconsistent mechanics led to accuracy issues, but in 2019 how many times did Brady chuck it out of bounds or throw it away from everyone simply because guys weren't separating? Well, he did it a whole lot, and that's why his Y/A and completion percentage were so similar to Cam's.

The reason why they didn't try more throws on the goal line with Cam is because they quite literally had zero red zone targets. Ryan Izzo was the TE #1. As good as Meyers was, he isn't a primary red zone option and couldn't compare to even Edelman in that role. Cam was effective in short yardage areas, why try to throw to Ryan Izzo or Harry or Byrd in a goal to go situation when the field is crammed with bodies when you have an elite run blocking o-line and Cam Newton? This year, they have a totally different red zone dynamic with Henry and Smith. Bill spending so much on not one but two TE's is proof enough about what he thought of the red zone passing options. As far as not seeing a Pats QB do that in 20 years, examine the context. Obviously Brady, the GOAT, was the QB for almost the entirety of that period. The short times filled with Jimmy G and Cassel featured players like Randy Moss, Wes Welker, Edelman, and Gronk. This was the single worst WR/TE groups in those twenty years.

And I agree with the mechanics with Cam. He'll never be a consistent thrower, you'll always have to deal with bouts of inaccuracy which is a major reason why we all want to upgrade from him. He's a flawed player but the team can have a functional offense with him assuming the supporting cast plays to expectations, which is the point I'm making. The narrative is this team literally can't with Cam, and a Brissett/Fitzpatrick/Trubisky type as starter would clearly upgrade the team, that's what I'm pushing up against.

Agreed, but who doesn’t? I mean, I suppose we can say guys like Stafford are successful despite not having these things but he’s never won so who cares? The question I have is can a QB win when those things are in place? And I don’t think those are the same questions. I think some QBs are better suited to winning when a great team is around them and others are not. And some that can create more wins on a bad team may not create them on a winning team.

I think guys like Cam Newton and Jackson are more apt to give you wins with a lessor supporting cast, but come playoff tome when you need to sit in the pocket and make 3rd down and long conversions regularly, I still want the guy who can sit in the pocket and make throws. You can even add Josh Allen to that list but he took such a step forward last season it seems he may be developing out of that.

You can't argue with facts, James Whites average catching position with Newton was minus .7 yards, with Brady it was 2 yards. Newton did just easy screen passes, Brady would go vertical with White.

Well look at the TDs Brady had, look at the weapons Brady had and how he could get red zone TDs passing unlike Newton. Look at the TDs White has with Brady versus Newton.

Running QBs can help create offense, 100%. Yet you still need a QB that can pass. I'll take a QB that non mobile over a running QB everyday of the week if he has more passing ability. Newton had one game that impressed me passing and that now just looks like the horrible Seahawks passing D. He would miss wide open WRs every game. You can give Newton all the weapons in the world and it still won't be enough unless his mechanics greatly improve. It's like the Ravens thinking they need more weapons for Jackson, when the issue is Jackson's passing, not the Weapons.

In my opinion the #1 trait for a Patriots QB is accuracy in our offense. Cam Newton's accuracy to WRs was dreadful last year. Yet congrats he can throw screen passes lol 😂

I think he struggles with everything except those crazy nice passes to Meyers when yeah he's literally wide open.

Yet Burkhead and White had higher catch percentage with Newton in 2020 than Brady in 2019. Heck James White had a career high, yet they were also all easy screen or dump down passes where yeah he missed a bunch of them.

Looking at Cam Newton completion percentage and comparing it to Brady in 2019 is laughable. Newton wasn't good last year. If Brady made the same passes he likely completes 80% of them. Brady would throw those long sideline passes to James White, Newton never did that.