Patriots 2021 Offseason Thread

The fact the draft isn’t this week is bogus.

I'm inserting Ian Book into the #8 spot, just so it's on record. My top three targets are Fields, Trask and Book. I'd actually start looking at Book in the 5th round if you don't have a guy by then. Only time in recent memory that I was overlooking a Notre Dame guy. Great lesson in that watching games live isn't the best way to scout players.

Yet I still want a veteran QB, if no Jimmy I'm trying for Gardner Minshew. They seem to have moved on given the backup QBs they signed along with Lawrence. Yet Minshew has put up darn impressive stats given the talent he's had around him. Minshew is just the most recent example of why you shouldn't write off shorter QBs who per scouting reports lack arm talent. Having the it factor matters just as much.

I pointed to two basic passing stats to push back on these crazy narratives that make it seem like Cam was the sole reason the passing offense struggled. When I mentioned completion percentage, you suggested it was due to dump offs to RB's. Then I noted his yards per attempt were higher, to push back on that idea. Instead of ever addressing this, at all, you just resort to *omg I've seen it all you think Cam is better than Brady* and keep citing only James White as if he was his sole pass catcher. Again, you make it seem like Cam had some fake completion percentage because of easy throws that Brady didn't have in 2019, yet Brady averaged 6.6 Y/A. How difficult were Brady's throws then? Brady was the dump off king in 2019 and still rocked a 60.8 completion %, even with his great accuracy. You claim Brady didn't miss open receivers and Cam did, as if in 2020 guys got separation and in 2019 they didn't. Of course Cam missed guys, so did Brady, and I'll agree Cam missed them at a higher rate, just not as much as the narrative suggests. I watched the games too and disagree with your assessment. I don't care to argue with your eye test further, so I'll agree to disagree.

For the record, I think Tom was a better QB in 2019 than Cam was in 2020, but I don't think the difference was as significant as the narrative suggests. I agree the offensive line and run game was better in 2020 than 2019. The schedule was easier in 2019, and Brady's stats for 2019 were a bit inflated from the start of the season vs. what it was down the stretch. The defense was elite in 2020 and bad in 2019, and that often impacted game situation and field position vs 2019. I also think Cam deserves *some* credit with the run game, as his ability to run made it a more dynamic attack than if Brady was under center with the same o-line and running backs, but you can disagree. And yes, of course he took more sacks, that's what you'll get with a mobile QB vs a guy like Brady. Frankly these things aren't what the discussion was about. Cam is a less consistent thrower (to be kind) and struggled pre-snap while Brady was a master at it, I'm not debating those aspects. My thing is I think people had an unrealistic idea of what was possible for the Patriots passing offense last year, and I'm confident Brady's passing numbers would've declined from 2019 if he stayed (I realize that's hypothetical and can't be proven).

Finally, when you say James White didn't decline last year, you're on an island on that one. Again, beyond the passing game he notably declined as a runner (he was never a great runner, but still) and pass blocker. He received minimal outside interest as a FA and took a dirt cheap deal to come back, but whatever, think what you want. I love White and hope he rebounds, and I certainly empathize with what he went through last year, but I'm far from the only one that saw a different player last year…your mileage may vary, but that's not an unpopular opinion, at all.

I’m a big fan of Rondale Moore but the durability concerns me. The size doesn’t with his athleticism

I do actually like Rodgers a lot and think he’d fit well here. He wouldn’t be my ideal pick there but I would like it


The offensive line depth in this draft is so deep at every spot, I’d love to snag a couple guys

Who do you like at OT after the first round? I love the guard and center depth, yet OT I like disappear quickly.

these trade up scenarios are making me sick. There is a lot of talent in this draft. Don't bet it all on one QB. Trade down, trade down, trade down.

What do the Pats need for this next year? Upgrade at QB. Maybe an additional vertical WR. A Wilfork like nose-guard? I assume they will come to terms with Gilmore. They really don't have any big holes except possibly QB. But of the QB's that are being discussed for the Pats (Fields, Jones, Lance) how sure are you that a specific one of them will outperform Cam Newton this next season?

Below is a table of the fRef CarAVs for the top 5 QBs drafted each year (in order of draft position). So the first column is the year. The second column is the CarAV for the first QB picked that year. The third column is the CaRAV for the second QB picked that year. etc...The last column is the highest CarAV of a QB picked in that year outside the top 5 QBs.



If the Pats trade up to get a QB they will be picking in the 4 or 5 slot. There are a lot of misses in those two columns. Do we really want to bet the entire draft on that one pick? And say they do trade up to 4 or 5 and they do pick well, will that QB even be the starter next year? Probably not. It would probably still be Cam, at least to start the year.

You could argue that even if Cam has a good year this year, they will still need a plan at QB after this next year, so maybe its worth taking the chance. But after this year, the Pats will have a lot of holes to fix. They will almost certainly need to replace at least one and maybe two CBs. They will likely need one and maybe two LBs. They may need one or two OTs. And they will likely need at least one S as well. As mentioned above they could still use a vertical WR and a run-plugging DT. And of course the QB.

if instead of trading up they instead traded down, and down, and down again - they could fill a bunch of those holes and still take a shot at a quarterback or two. Right now the Pats have picks 15, 46, 96, 120, 122, 139, 177, 188, 197, 242. If they could trade that 15 pick down to around 35 in a few steps, they could accumulate a bunch of picks in the 45-90 range. My last PFF results using this strategy: This one was about as good as it gets as we went 15-> 19-> 23-> 25-> 30 and then started picking

30 Greg Newsome CB Northwestern (Go Cats!)
33 Asante Samuel CB FSU
34 Jalen Mayfield T Mich
45 Landon Dickerson C/G Alabama
46 Elijah Moore WR Miss
51 Walker Little T Stanford
61 Davis Mills QB Stanford <- crapshoot #1
65 Elijah Molden S/CB Wash
66 Jamar Johnson S Indiana
74 Ar'Darius Washington S TCU
82 Kellen Mond QB Tex A&M < - crapshoot #2 he was still available
96 Nico Collins WR Mich
120 Amari Rogers WR Clemson

This was one of the better ones, because I got a bunch of offers in small steps, but its not particularly unique. So long as you can step down slowly from 15 to 30-40, and trade out of those picks above 120, you should be able to accumulate a lot of picks right in the sweet spot. If you don't believe me, try it for yourself.

I've run a crazy amount of mocks at this point, a lot of the time by our second pick you are down to Leatherwood and Eichenberg. I'm not a massive fan of those guys at 46, yet they have upside. I mean if you watched the Ian Book tape, I don't see a Solder comp for Eichenberg. He got beat so many times and Book spent the season running for his life, so I buy the Eichenberg to RT or OG reports I see or he's a work in progress.

Yet my real question was about the depth at OT at every spot and taking two guys comment. I'm big this year at trying to nail the final needs. So OT comes later, yet after pick 46 the options start to really fade. Who do you like in rounds 3-7 that makes you want to take two guys in this draft?

The depth at WR and CB is darn good for many rounds, I end up taking two guys in most mocks I do. Heck guard and center depth lasts for rounds. Yet when I'm ready to address OT, I end up taking a guy like Banks or another OG because that's the value play at that point. Just trying to see who I'm overlooking, because I get tunnel vision this time of year. 

A few things first, this is a crazy deep QB draft. The more important thing than looking at history is looking at the strengths of the draft per position. Example in most years I truly believe Fields would be the first QB taken. He's that talented, I don't know about his IQ and football smarts, etc, yet his raw talent along with production is very good.

You think a lot higher of Cam Newton than I do. The Patriots have been going hard after Jimmy because they are 100% sold on Cam? That doesn't make sense.

The heart of every draft is the top 100 and this year is no different.

So you turned pick 15 into picks 30, 33, 34, 45, 51, 61, 65, 66, 74 and 82? Do you think that's realistic? The issues is I'm sure some of those trades maybe could happen. Yet there's no way you can trade down five times and get HR offers all five times. You're just exploiting a weakness in the mock simulator. Go try the PFN mock simulator. It proposes trades and they are semi realistic. Just accept them and see what happens, you never get anything close to as extreme as you did. I'm all for pushing the limits, like best case scenario type crap, yet we have to stay within the realm of reality. I feel 100% safe saying you'd struggle to get half the picks you got. The best trades usually involve future picks, something the PFN mock offers you a ton of.

Example a common trade if a good OT is available at 15, is the Chiefs offering 31, 63, 94 and a 2022 second round pick. That's a very good and realistic offer in my book. I can see the Chiefs doing that, yet it also depends on the right guy being there at 15. You just won't get five big offers in the first round. You also have to balance the trade offers versus who's there at 15. I'd say 30 to 40% of the time an elite guy at a position on need drops. Passing on Parsons or the elite WRs or CBs isn't an easy decision right?

I actually agree depending how the draft goes that trading down is the smart play if the offers are good. You just can't get ten picks in the top 82 for pick 15, that won't happen.

I said I’d like to see them draft a couple offensive linemen, I didn’t specify tackle. Sorry for the confusion if it read that way. I think a tackle and a guard would be ideal. It seems like we committed to Andrews at center long term though this might be the best center draft in awhile


I wouldn’t complain about Leatherwood at 46. I probably would about Eichenberg unless he’s closer to the 60’s and 70’s. He’s not my fav prospect by any means but I think there’s a lot to work with

Could absolutely see them picking Darrisaw at 15

The more I read about that Meinerz guy the more I think they’re gonna go nuts and pick him at 46 lol