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2021-22 International Signing Period
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jan 17, 2022 19:17:09 GMT -5
Sarcasm or not, it's the same John Henry who cut a $31m check to Yoan Moncada, along with a matching $31m check to MLB for overage tax (a.k.a. the commissioner's slush fund). Call Henry what you will but don't call him cheap (or late for supper).
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Post by vmoss on Jan 17, 2022 19:45:20 GMT -5
Fun to note than even in a wholly speculative market of 16 year old DR/Venezuelan kids, everyone knows the discount rate on 16YO pitchers is about 70%. I believe there's only 2 on the top 50 board. Basically everyone ascribes to the "give the good ones $250K, give anyone throwing 85 MPH $75K and we'll sort it out in 6 years" approach. I thought there was lot more than 2 out of 50 in past years. Are young pitchers that much tougher to project? Otherwise maybe throw 250 at say 10 of the best. Thanks.
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 17, 2022 19:53:40 GMT -5
If you just go from the tracker, there's two this year (31 and 37), which is up from ONE last year (vera at 15) 5 the year before but that was with Vera repeating (I guess a Cuban defector who waited for 2020).
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 18, 2022 12:38:45 GMT -5
Thanks JohnSilver52, appreciate your defense for Sarasoxer. Love to get together this year with you both. Some folks on here can be quite sarcastic. We love watching and following these kids, but some can be quite negative. I understand where Sarasoxer is coming from my self. Hopefully their system works, spending on lots of kids for less, but I'd have loved them going all-out like the Yanks to sign a Dominguez. Hey Steve, Wife is my wheels now since unable to drive last several years any longer. Probably one of the FSL teams close to you 2 as home team would be best over the summer, tho we have been talking about this meet for years. HAHA. We've got to make it happen 1 day. Didn't catch but *1* FSL Tigers game all last year, tho did see a bunch of afternoon GCL tiger games. Hope u guys had better luck with local teams. Thanks LongJohn..... Yep let's you, Steve and I make it happen this summer!
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,827
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jan 18, 2022 14:31:06 GMT -5
Hey Steve, Wife is my wheels now since unable to drive last several years any longer. Probably one of the FSL teams close to you 2 as home team would be best over the summer, tho we have been talking about this meet for years. HAHA. We've got to make it happen 1 day. Didn't catch but *1* FSL Tigers game all last year, tho did see a bunch of afternoon GCL tiger games. Hope u guys had better luck with local teams. Thanks LongJohn..... Yep let's you, Steve and I make it happen this summer! Count me in!! This year's team actually looks quite interesting and that is before the draft.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 18, 2022 15:28:17 GMT -5
Guys, I sincerely love that you met each other on here and can get to games together in Fort Myers. It's honestly terrific.
That said, do you mind if we move this discussion out of the international signing thread, perhaps to off-topic or something?
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Post by prospectlove on Jan 18, 2022 19:04:00 GMT -5
I also understand what the sox are doing with international money. And it's claimed they have a great program (having read it several places and some within this site definitely are a fan of how they allocate their resources). HOWEVER, I sure would rather go after the Rafael Devers (high end signing), Vlad, Wander Franco with most of our money. Then sign the below the radar guys after that. NOW I'll gladly say time will tell which choice is the correct one. But since Devers (and Xander) we really haven't had many high end great international guys come through OR for that matter be ranked high in the top 100.
I've also noticed where the Red Sox used to sign many of their primary signings through Ven. they now are acquiring many of their high end guys from Dom. (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong). The Mets international guy they brought on a couple years ago spent most of his resources in the Dominican and primarily with high end guys. I wonder if there is a changing of the philosophies going on, but it just takes time. And it probably will shift again now that they signed the assistant gm from the Brewers (who had a background in the international market). PLUS I feel next year will be a draft also. But what will the draft look like and how will resources be dictated to be spent. Its an interesting market for sure.
I'm a Red Sox fan, so hope their philosophy is the correct one. I hope they develop another Xander or Acuna for that matter (high end guys signed for not a ton of money) You could argue Mariano if you wanted from Yankees, but I feel that was so long ago that those guys wouldn't go for so little today.
Here's hoping Encarnacion or Bleis from last year can make me and others like me feel Red Sox are more right than some amateur such as myself. As it currently sits though, I see a lot of money spent and very little payoff YET and respectfully some concerns there might not be the payoff for the cost. (again respectfully and could be wrong).
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Post by mg050369 on Jan 18, 2022 20:10:47 GMT -5
I also understand what the sox are doing with international money. And it's claimed they have a great program (having read it several places and some within this site definitely are a fan of how they allocate their resources). HOWEVER, I sure would rather go after the Rafael Devers (high end signing), Vlad, Wander Franco with most of our money. Then sign the below the radar guys after that. NOW I'll gladly say time will tell which choice is the correct one. But since Devers (and Xander) we really haven't had many high end great international guys come through OR for that matter be ranked high in the top 100. Rafael Devers 3B Dominican $1,500,000 Xander Bogaerts SS Aruba $410,000 Michael Ynoa 2008 RHP Athletics Dominican Republic $4.25M Adonys Cardona 2010 RHP Blue Jays Venezuela $2.8M
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 18, 2022 20:28:54 GMT -5
There are clearly different viewpoints, www.pinstripealley.com/2021/12/22/22849202/yankees-international-free-agency-strategy-wander-franco-tampa-dominican-republic-star-pereira-ifaAs to the payoff, one can do a "survivor bias" retrospective of seeing a superstar and saying let's invest in the top end guys. But if you look at the list of million plus guys before the capped pool, the payoff was horrible. Pre-cap, it was a question of whether it is a wise expenditure, and it was questionable. However, now with a capped pool, it is not just value, but a trade off. If you look at the rate of success, there are valid arguments for taking 3 second rounders than one first rounder. One other way to look at it is [ducks] Mookie Betts. How valuable is a single player vs. having a deep lineup for the same value. In the 2000s when I envied the Yankees, I was in the superstar camp. Today, I'd rather a lineup with fewer holes than one impact guy getting up 4 times.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 18, 2022 21:51:08 GMT -5
I also understand what the sox are doing with international money. And it's claimed they have a great program (having read it several places and some within this site definitely are a fan of how they allocate their resources). HOWEVER, I sure would rather go after the Rafael Devers (high end signing), Vlad, Wander Franco with most of our money. Then sign the below the radar guys after that. NOW I'll gladly say time will tell which choice is the correct one. But since Devers (and Xander) we really haven't had many high end great international guys come through OR for that matter be ranked high in the top 100. I've also noticed where the Red Sox used to sign many of their primary signings through Ven. they now are acquiring many of their high end guys from Dom. (feel free to correct me if I'm wrong). The Mets international guy they brought on a couple years ago spent most of his resources in the Dominican and primarily with high end guys. I wonder if there is a changing of the philosophies going on, but it just takes time. And it probably will shift again now that they signed the assistant gm from the Brewers (who had a background in the international market). PLUS I feel next year will be a draft also. But what will the draft look like and how will resources be dictated to be spent. Its an interesting market for sure. I'm a Red Sox fan, so hope their philosophy is the correct one. I hope they develop another Xander or Acuna for that matter (high end guys signed for not a ton of money) You could argue Mariano if you wanted from Yankees, but I feel that was so long ago that those guys wouldn't go for so little today. Here's hoping Encarnacion or Bleis from last year can make me and others like me feel Red Sox are more right than some amateur such as myself. As it currently sits though, I see a lot of money spent and very little payoff YET and respectfully some concerns there might not be the payoff for the cost. (again respectfully and could be wrong). As mentioned, I think the fact that you're comparing to the pre-hard cap era is significant. It's not necessarily apples-to-apples. Looking at MLB.com's Top 50 (which has not been updated), here are the IFAs and their bonuses: 2. Julio Rodriguez, $1.75M 5. Marco Luciano, $6M 10. Francisco Alvarez, $2.7M 11. Noelvi Marte, $1.55M 17. Jasson Dominguez, $5.1M 21. Vidal Brujan, $15,000 28. Diego Cartaya, $2.5M 29. Edward Cabrera, $100,000 32. Gabriel Moreno, $25,000 37. Luis Campusano, $1.3M 41. Sixto Sanchez, $35,000 44. Orelvis Martinez, $3.5M So there are what, 5 or 6 guys in the top 50 who signed for bonuses above what the Sox have been giving out recently, depending on how you classify Julio? Compare to 6 or 7 in the range they've been spending at. Meanwhile, here's the top 10 2018 IFAs by bonus, per Badler's list: 1. Victor Victor Mesa (struggled in High A this year at age 25) 2. Luciano 3. Cartaya 4. Marte 5. Osiel Rodriguez (looks like he's been hurt) 6. Richard Gallardo (very meh in Low A this year) 7. Orelvis 8. Gabriel Rodriguez (very bad in Low A this year) 9. Alvarez 10. Misael Urbina (brutal in Low A this year) So yeah, there's a much better hit rate on these guys than the lower bonus guys... but at a much higher opportunity cost. Dominguez, for example, took all but like $100k of the Yankees' pool that year. If he doesn't pan out, that's a lost year on the IFA market. So I could 100% see a team saying it's not worth signing a guy for more than 1/3 of the pool in a given year.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jan 18, 2022 21:58:54 GMT -5
There are clearly different viewpoints, www.pinstripealley.com/2021/12/22/22849202/yankees-international-free-agency-strategy-wander-franco-tampa-dominican-republic-star-pereira-ifaAs to the payoff, one can do a "survivor bias" retrospective of seeing a superstar and saying let's invest in the top end guys. But if you look at the list of million plus guys before the capped pool, the payoff was horrible. Pre-cap, it was a question of whether it is a wise expenditure, and it was questionable. However, now with a capped pool, it is not just value, but a trade off. If you look at the rate of success, there are valid arguments for taking 3 second rounders than one first rounder. One other way to look at it is [ducks] Mookie Betts. How valuable is a single player vs. having a deep lineup for the same value. In the 2000s when I envied the Yankees, I was in the superstar camp. Today, I'd rather a lineup with fewer holes than one impact guy getting up 4 times. I read this article two weeks ago good read. Yankees are linked to next year top prospect Brandon Mayea from Cuba.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 18, 2022 22:32:27 GMT -5
There are clearly different viewpoints, www.pinstripealley.com/2021/12/22/22849202/yankees-international-free-agency-strategy-wander-franco-tampa-dominican-republic-star-pereira-ifaAs to the payoff, one can do a "survivor bias" retrospective of seeing a superstar and saying let's invest in the top end guys. But if you look at the list of million plus guys before the capped pool, the payoff was horrible. Pre-cap, it was a question of whether it is a wise expenditure, and it was questionable. However, now with a capped pool, it is not just value, but a trade off. If you look at the rate of success, there are valid arguments for taking 3 second rounders than one first rounder. One other way to look at it is [ducks] Mookie Betts. How valuable is a single player vs. having a deep lineup for the same value. In the 2000s when I envied the Yankees, I was in the superstar camp. Today, I'd rather a lineup with fewer holes than one impact guy getting up 4 times. I read this article two weeks ago good read. Yankees are linked to next year top prospect Brandon Mayea from Cuba. Well here's hoping for an International Draft
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 19, 2022 6:58:21 GMT -5
People talk about the great international signings by the Yankees but really, what have they gained ? Last year's big name was Dominguez and he's been dropping like a rock, apparently a slow learner. Right now it's Volpe but he's A+ and has a lot to prove.
I'll be impressed when I see something more concrete that Gary Sanchez.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 19, 2022 8:20:54 GMT -5
People talk about the great international signings by the Yankees but really, what have they gained ? Last year's big name was Dominguez and he's been dropping like a rock, apparently a slow learner. Right now it's Volpe but he's A+ and has a lot to prove. I'll be impressed when I see something more concrete that Gary Sanchez. Loaisiga, Sevy, German. They always seem to have some good IFA arms
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Post by jaffinator on Jan 19, 2022 9:27:13 GMT -5
People talk about the great international signings by the Yankees but really, what have they gained ? Last year's big name was Dominguez and he's been dropping like a rock, apparently a slow learner. Right now it's Volpe but he's A+ and has a lot to prove. I'll be impressed when I see something more concrete that Gary Sanchez. Anthony Volpe was drafted? In the first round in 2019 out of NJ.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 19, 2022 9:29:09 GMT -5
People talk about the great international signings by the Yankees but really, what have they gained ? Last year's big name was Dominguez and he's been dropping like a rock, apparently a slow learner. Right now it's Volpe but he's A+ and has a lot to prove. I'll be impressed when I see something more concrete that Gary Sanchez. Anthony Volpe was drafted? In the first round in 2019 out of NJ. In his defense, a lot of people wish that New Jersey wasn't part of the US
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Post by stevedillard on Jan 19, 2022 9:32:46 GMT -5
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 19, 2022 9:37:38 GMT -5
Should've just went with Peraza haha
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 19, 2022 10:28:05 GMT -5
I'm referring to recent history. Remember when the killer B's were going to form the core of a dominant staff for years to come ? Remember when Montero was the second coming of Jesus ? I would venture a guess that the Yankees are somewhere near the top when it comes to players being over rated relative to how their futures actually panned out. The Yankee mystique is faded like yesterday's jeans.
Sevarino and German have spent more time in doctors offices than on the mound. Sanchez is the catcher nobody wants, Gaybar Torres had his position switched in the middle of a pennant race.
My bad with Volpe, point still stands.
ADD: Maybe I'm not remembering somebody but offhand, I can't think of any player anywhere in baseball who was initially a Yankee international signing that come close to either Raffy or X.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 19, 2022 10:29:57 GMT -5
I'm referring to recent history. Remember when the killer B's were going to form the core of a dominant staff for years to come ? Remember when Montero was the second coming of Jesus ? I would venture a guess that the Yankees are somewhere near the top when it comes to players being over rated relative to how their futures actually panned out. The Yankee mystique is faded like yesterday's jeans. Sevarino and German have spent more time in doctors offices than on the mound. Sanchez is the catcher nobody wants, Gaybar Torres had his position switched in the middle of a pennant race. My bad with Volpe, point still stands. You really owned Gleyber, not sure how he'll ever recover from that one. Also, I'd kill for the Red Sox to develop any starter of the quality of either German or Severino
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 19, 2022 10:46:40 GMT -5
Sevarino is a major question. He had the talent for sure but if I remember correctly, the velocity hasn't returned yet. That's not a great sign.
Sorry but I just don't see German as anything but a bottom of the rotation guy.
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Post by freddysthefuture2003 on Jan 19, 2022 10:51:32 GMT -5
Sevarino is a major question. He had the talent for sure but if I remember correctly, the velocity hasn't returned yet. That's not a great sign. Sorry but I just don't see German as anything but a bottom of the rotation guy. When was the last time the Red Sox drafted or signed and developed a reliable #5
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Post by jaffinator on Jan 19, 2022 10:54:33 GMT -5
Fun fact about Anthony Volpe though - went to HS with Jack Leiter. Must've been a fun team to play, can you imagine.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jan 19, 2022 10:55:16 GMT -5
Let's stick to the topic of the 2021-2022 international signing period - thanks!
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 19, 2022 11:07:44 GMT -5
Going to give the benefit of the doubt that it was a typo.
Anyway, same exercise as last night with the updated BA Top 100:
2. Julio Rodriguez, $1.75M 7. Gabriel Moreno, $25,000 11. Keibert Ruiz, $140,000 13. Francisco Alvarez, $2.7M 14. Oneil Cruz, $950,000 17. Marco Luciano, $6M 18. Noelvi Marte, $1.55M 23. Diego Cartaya, $2.5M 33. Jose Barrero, $5M 40. Miguel Vargas, $300,000 48. Eury Perez, $200,000 53. Luis Campusano, $1.3M 55. Oswald Peraza, $175,000 56. Vidal Brujan, $15,000 64. Sixto Sanchez, $35,000 66. Brayan Rocchio, $125,000 68. George Valera, $1.3M 69. Edward Cabrera, $100,000 73. Luis Matos, $725,000 75. Orelvis Martinez, $3.5M 77. Elly De La Cruz, $65,000 78. Liover Peguero, $475,000 80. Yoansy Contreras, $250,000 81. Cristian Hernandez, $3M 87. Jasson Dominguez, $5.1M 89. Geraldo Perdomo, $70,000 92. Ronny Mauricio, $2.1M 100. Gabriel Arias, $1.9M
<$100k: 5 $100k-<$500k: 8 $500k-<$1M: 2 $1M-<$2M: 5 >$2M: 8
So the surest way to get a Top 100 prospect is certainly to hand out a big bonus (figuring there are far fewer such players), but I don't think we can look at this and say with any certainty that staying away from such players in most instances, especially with a hard cap and therefore opportunity cost, is a poor strategy given how many IFAs are on this list who didn't get those huge bonuses.
Organized another way:
17. Marco Luciano, $6M 87. Jasson Dominguez, $5.1M 33. Jose Barrero, $5M 75. Orelvis Martinez, $3.5M 81. Cristian Hernandez, $3M 13. Francisco Alvarez, $2.7M 23. Diego Cartaya, $2.5M 92. Ronny Mauricio, $2.1M 100. Gabriel Arias, $1.9M 2. Julio Rodriguez, $1.75M 18. Noelvi Marte, $1.55M 53. Luis Campusano, $1.3M 68. George Valera, $1.3M 14. Oneil Cruz, $950,000 73. Luis Matos, $725,000 78. Liover Peguero, $475,000 40. Miguel Vargas, $300,000 80. Yoansy Contreras, $250,000 48. Eury Perez, $200,000 55. Oswald Peraza, $175,000 11. Keibert Ruiz, $140,000 66. Brayan Rocchio, $125,000 69. Edward Cabrera, $100,000 89. Geraldo Perdomo, $70,000 77. Elly De La Cruz, $65,000 64. Sixto Sanchez, $35,000 7. Gabriel Moreno, $25,000 56. Vidal Brujan, $15,000
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