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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 15, 2021 12:57:01 GMT -5
I'm also fairly certain he's been dinged up. He started strong but then really tailed off for a bit in June, tied in with him missing some games. he's also come out of at least one more recent game. But James has it. Given his speed, an MLB team can find a way to get use out of him on a 26-man roster for at least 90 days and then stash him on the IL the rest of the year. It would be absolutely stunning if he wasn't added to the 40-man. Look at it this way - Jay Groome was pretty much in the same situation and they added him.It's different when it's like, Ceddanne Rafaela who doesn't have quite the same upside, while still being very intriguing. Pitchers are different, you can hide them in the bullpen as a mop up relievers. I just don't see the upside of picking him in a rule 5 Draft if I'm an opposing manager. OK, he's in the same position as Jeisson Rosario. Neither is ready for MLB, both would have had to have been stashed for a year before being sent back down. Heck, the Red Sox successfully did this with Jonathan Araúz. Granted the short season helped but when you have a 26-man roster, you can absolutely use a spot to stash a guy if you're not competing. Guys with Jimenez's upside just aren't left unprotected.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 15, 2021 13:01:32 GMT -5
Punting on your 26th roster spot is a pretty small cost.
A team can take him without being very committed to him, too. They can just take a look at him for a month in spring training and only keep him if he looks like he's about to have a breakout season.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 15, 2021 13:04:49 GMT -5
Why is adding Gilberto Jiminez to the 40-man roster is considered a certainty? Sure he's fast but he didn't turn that speed into an asset yet: He's not great defensively and he's not that much of a threat on the base path (70% efficiency in 2019 and 77% in 2021) He makes tons of contact but it's a suboptimal type: Grounders into the ss hole (62.2% GB%!!!!), bloopers in front of the OFers, the Che-Hsuan Lin type of contact if you remember him. He hits for average but it's an empty type of average with no walks or power. Can a team picks him up in the rule 5 draft and keep him in MLB roster for a whole season? I doubt it (Akil Badoo has triple his walks and double his IsoP in Adv A). I think it's reasonable to leave him in Salem for the reminder of the season and see if he shows improvements next year in Greenville, then you add him. I'd put money on the Orioles taking him and keeping him in the Rule 5. They never even try to compete. Their biggest hobby is annoying teams in the Rule 5.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jul 15, 2021 13:19:28 GMT -5
Pitchers are different, you can hide them in the bullpen as a mop up relievers. I just don't see the upside of picking him in a rule 5 Draft if I'm an opposing manager. OK, he's in the same position as Jeisson Rosario. Neither is ready for MLB, both would have had to have been stashed for a year before being sent back down. Heck, the Red Sox successfully did this with Jonathan Araúz. Granted the short season helped but when you have a 26-man roster, you can absolutely use a spot to stash a guy if you're not competing. Guys with Jimenez's upside just aren't left unprotected. I really didn't want this to be a back and forth argument because I'm not convinced that you risk a useful roster spot on a generic slap hitters with speed that they didn't turn into a skill yet, but that's just me. But the examples you took are not convincing at all: Arauz was middle infielder with a plus glove hitting at a league average in AA so a completely different profile. Rosario was a well regarded defensive CFer with an elite plate discipline in High A. You put Jimenez and his 3% Walk rate in Greenville and High A pitchers will carve him. But hey, he's fast and build like a running back so maybe a team will take a flyer on him.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jul 15, 2021 13:29:27 GMT -5
Why is adding Gilberto Jiminez to the 40-man roster is considered a certainty? Sure he's fast but he didn't turn that speed into an asset yet: He's not great defensively and he's not that much of a threat on the base path (70% efficiency in 2019 and 77% in 2021) He makes tons of contact but it's a suboptimal type: Grounders into the ss hole (62.2% GB%!!!!), bloopers in front of the OFers, the Che-Hsuan Lin type of contact if you remember him. He hits for average but it's an empty type of average with no walks or power. Can a team picks him up in the rule 5 draft and keep him in MLB roster for a whole season? I doubt it (Akil Badoo has triple his walks and double his IsoP in Adv A). I think it's reasonable to leave him in Salem for the reminder of the season and see if he shows improvements next year in Greenville, then you add him. I'd put money on the Orioles taking him and keeping him in the Rule 5. They never even try to compete. Their biggest hobby is annoying teams in the Rule 5. Lol, there was Almanzar and that guy that they caught on camera an Stashed him in the bullpen then the 60 days IL, I forgot his name.
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Post by jmei on Jul 15, 2021 13:30:35 GMT -5
The 26th man on your roster doesn’t need to come up and actually hit that often to stick on the roster. You could make him your fifth outfielder and pinch runner and keep him on the roster all year whilst only giving him ~150 PAs. That’s especially true if you’re not expecting to contend. For a bad team, getting Jimenez in the organization for free is honestly the best use of that roster spot.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Jul 15, 2021 13:35:27 GMT -5
Hix, I was ready to ask the exact same question today. You took the beating on my behalf I guess.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 15, 2021 13:37:22 GMT -5
Cincy kept Billy Hamilton for about 5 years playing no less than 114 games during that span while OPSing no higher than .664. Have to think most of that was hoping he could figure it out and at least raise the obp to a decent level to be a difference maker on the base paths. I think a team could hope the same for a guy like Jimenez. He's definitely a lot of projection right now but I'd hate to leave him unprotected and lose him and see in a few years he turns into a solid player who can change a game with his speed.
Edit: I would also think if they were thinking they won't add him to the 40 they'd trade him at the deadline to some team who will. I would think he could be a headliner for a pretty solid piece. Losing him for nothing would be tough.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 15, 2021 13:47:54 GMT -5
Cincy kept Billy Hamilton for about 5 years playing no less than 114 games during that span while OPSing no higher than .664. Have to think most of that was hoping he could figure it out and at least raise the obp to a decent level to be a difference maker on the base paths. I think a team could hope the same for a guy like Jimenez. He's definitely a lot of projection right now but I'd hate to leave him unprotected and lose him and see in a few years he turns into a solid player who can change a game with his speed. Edit: I would also think if they were thinking they won't add him to the 40 they'd trade him at the deadline to some team who will. I would think he could be a headliner for a pretty solid piece. Losing him for nothing would be tough. I remember how upset some were with the Sox dealing away Margot in the Kimbrel deal. Jimenez kind of has a similar profile. I'd hate to lose him for nothing particularly when you factor in he was kind of banged up which impacted him. He still has the upside of perhaps adding some power as well.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jul 15, 2021 13:55:22 GMT -5
Hix, I was ready to ask the exact same question today. You took the beating on my behalf I guess. Lol Happy to oblige 😅 Cincy kept Billy Hamilton for about 5 years playing no less than 114 games during that span while OPSing no higher than .664. Have to think most of that was hoping he could figure it out and at least raise the obp to a decent level to be a difference maker on the base paths. I think a team could hope the same for a guy like Jimenez. He's definitely a lot of projection right now but I'd hate to leave him unprotected and lose him and see in a few years he turns into a solid player who can change a game with his speed. Edit: I would also think if they were thinking they won't add him to the 40 they'd trade him at the deadline to some team who will. I would think he could be a headliner for a pretty solid piece. Losing him for nothing would be tough. The difference is that Hamilton was a prolific base stealer and an elite fielder, those skills are valuable. Jimenez is just...fast: He's still a project in the field and on the base path.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 15, 2021 14:04:36 GMT -5
Hix, I was ready to ask the exact same question today. You took the beating on my behalf I guess. Lol Happy to oblige 😅 Cincy kept Billy Hamilton for about 5 years playing no less than 114 games during that span while OPSing no higher than .664. Have to think most of that was hoping he could figure it out and at least raise the obp to a decent level to be a difference maker on the base paths. I think a team could hope the same for a guy like Jimenez. He's definitely a lot of projection right now but I'd hate to leave him unprotected and lose him and see in a few years he turns into a solid player who can change a game with his speed. Edit: I would also think if they were thinking they won't add him to the 40 they'd trade him at the deadline to some team who will. I would think he could be a headliner for a pretty solid piece. Losing him for nothing would be tough. The difference is that Hamilton was a prolific base stealer and an elite fielder, those skills are valuable. Jimenez is just...fast: He's still a project in the field and on the base path. Valid points and overall I don't disagree with you that looking at his stats Jimenez doesn't exactly warrant protecting at the expense of losing someone who may be a more sure thing to contribute to a major league roster. I just think losing a guy with his potential for nothing could end up being a tough pill to swallow down the road. On the flipside he might continue to be a guy who is just fast and not end up being a big loss at all.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Jul 15, 2021 14:18:48 GMT -5
Cincy kept Billy Hamilton for about 5 years playing no less than 114 games during that span while OPSing no higher than .664. Have to think most of that was hoping he could figure it out and at least raise the obp to a decent level to be a difference maker on the base paths. I think a team could hope the same for a guy like Jimenez. He's definitely a lot of projection right now but I'd hate to leave him unprotected and lose him and see in a few years he turns into a solid player who can change a game with his speed. Edit: I would also think if they were thinking they won't add him to the 40 they'd trade him at the deadline to some team who will. I would think he could be a headliner for a pretty solid piece. Losing him for nothing would be tough. I remember how upset some were with the Sox dealing away Margot in the Kimbrel deal. Jimenez kind of has a similar profile. I'd hate to lose him for nothing particularly when you factor in he was kind of banged up which impacted him. He still has the upside of perhaps adding some power as well. When Dombrowski dealt Margot to the Padres, he was striking out way less than Jimenez now in AA at the same age with a plus glove and better walk rate and power. Jimenez has been the same hitter and fielder and runner as the one we saw in Lowell, he just got bigger (ironically, his power numbers went down)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 15, 2021 14:29:37 GMT -5
Look, there's no "beating" here. Nobody's calling you names or saying your idea is dumb. It's a fair question and nobody considers this an argument or anything as I'm reading this. That's why a message board exists, no?
MLB clubs don't make roster decisions based on a month's worth of minor league statistics. By the same reasoning, the Red Sox shouldn't add their Double-A first baseman who only has a .776 OPS and just went a month without hitting a home run (EDIT: He's not eligible yet I'm dumb) or their Triple-A middle infielder who has a sub-.700 OPS and probably can't stick at short, no? You're making the argument for why a contending team would pick him in Rule 5. We're saying a team that's not contending isn't going to care and will stash him despite the fact he's clearly not ready for MLB.
Like I said, (a) I am pretty sure Jimenez is fighting something. See Below, and (b) again, he doesn't need to be a major league-ready player to be selected in Rule 5. The Diamondbacks and Orioles would LOVE to scoop up a guy like that, stash him for a year, and put him in Double-A in 2023.
RE: the injury: 5/4-5/26: 86 PA, .325/.372/.438, 16.3% K rate, only sits one of Salem's 20 games sits for 3 days and only starts 1 of 2 games of DH on 5/30 5/30-6/12: 45 PA, .205/.222/.250, 26.7% K rate, sat 4 of Salem's 14 games. And I note this includes a series against the atrocity to professional baseball that is the Fredericksburg Nationals. 6/15-6/30: 48 PA, .348/.354/.391, 22.9% K rate, sat 3 of 14 games and left another after one at-bat. 7/1-7/14: 54 PA, .319/.370/.468, 18.5% K rate, has played every game out of 12.
So it looks like he was fighting something at the very end of May and most of June, but is healthy now.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 15, 2021 14:46:07 GMT -5
Here's where I'm at right now:
About to be added Jarren Duran
Certain to be added Brayan Bello Jeter Downs Gilberto Jimenez
Would've been certain, but how do we factor in TJ? Thaddeus Ward
Likely to be added Frank German Josh Winckowski
Possibly added but likely not given roster crunch Kutter Crawford Durbin Feltman Kaleb Ort AJ Politi Alex Scherff John Schreiber
Unlikely to be added but worth mentioning Tyler Dearden Tyler Esplin Ryan Fitzgerald Devlin Granberg Oddanier Mosqueda Aaron Perry Ceddanne Rafaela Tyreque Reed
I do not feel confident about the above at all, fwiw.
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Post by incandenza on Jul 15, 2021 14:54:31 GMT -5
Crawford, Feltman, Ort, Politi, Scherff, Schreiber, Dearden, Esplin, Fitzgerald, Granberg, Mosqueda, Perry, Rafaela, and Reed for Scherzer... who says no?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 15, 2021 15:02:45 GMT -5
Ward is interesting. If they expect he'll get taken in the Rule 5, then I wonder if putting him on the 60 day IL and starting his service clock is the least bad option.
I dunno about Frank German. The Yankees giving him away alongside Ottavino's reasonable contract does not make it seem like he's highly valued around the league, and I would think his stock has dropped sharply since then. I hope they put him in the pen and give him a chance to impress before the roster crunch.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 15, 2021 15:07:22 GMT -5
Crawford, Feltman, Ort, Politi, Scherff, Schreiber, Dearden, Esplin, Fitzgerald, Granberg, Mosqueda, Perry, Rafaela, and Reed for Scherzer... who says no? That's ridiculous. You'd ask them to pick any 12.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Jul 15, 2021 15:22:32 GMT -5
Funny thing is that I was about to put my list of who I think should be protected before worrying about Arizona/Baltimore picking my speedy Low A OFer, then I refreshed the page and saw your list lol OK so here's where we disagree: I'll protect someones like Crawford/Winckowski/Ort way before Jimenez. In fact, I'd like to see more of Schreff after his promotion and maybe convert German to reliving and see how his stuff plays up in shorter stints, maybe even see what Feltman can do vs AAA lineups. I don't wanna risk having one of these arms turning into the next Ryan Pressley. I feel like Jimenez is valued by the staff here more than he is by the Red Sox FO, SP projected him to start the season in GVL instead of Salem IIRC. Anyway, I hope he proves me wrong and rakes his way to Adv A before the season ends and turns into a must protect ... Time will tell.
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 15, 2021 15:27:08 GMT -5
I dunno about Frank German. The Yankees giving him away alongside Ottavino's reasonable contract does not make it seem like he's highly valued around the league, and I would think his stock has dropped sharply since then. I hope they put him in the pen and give him a chance to impress before the roster crunch. I was wondering the same thing. His stats seem very pedestrian and jet consistent, meaning there isn't really an upward trajectory. Is the stuff better than the stats?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 15, 2021 16:00:18 GMT -5
Funny thing is that I was about to put my list of who I think should be protected before worrying about Arizona/Baltimore picking my speedy Low A OFer, then I refreshed the page and saw your list lol OK so here's where we disagree: I'll protect someones like Crawford/Winckowski/Ort way before Jimenez. In fact, I'd like to see more of Schreff after his promotion and maybe convert German to reliving and see how his stuff plays up in shorter stints, maybe even see what Feltman can do vs AAA lineups. I don't wanna risk having one of these arms turning into the next Ryan Pressley. I feel like Jimenez is valued by the staff here more than he is by the Red Sox FO, SP projected him to start the season in GVL instead of Salem IIRC. Anyway, I hope he proves me wrong and rakes his way to Adv A before the season ends and turns into a must protect ... Time will tell. Protecting a middle reliever over Jimenez is insanity to me
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Post by jmei on Jul 15, 2021 16:07:14 GMT -5
Funny thing is that I was about to put my list of who I think should be protected before worrying about Arizona/Baltimore picking my speedy Low A OFer, then I refreshed the page and saw your list lol OK so here's where we disagree: I'll protect someones like Crawford/Winckowski/Ort way before Jimenez. In fact, I'd like to see more of Schreff after his promotion and maybe convert German to reliving and see how his stuff plays up in shorter stints, maybe even see what Feltman can do vs AAA lineups. I don't wanna risk having one of these arms turning into the next Ryan Pressley. I feel like Jimenez is valued by the staff here more than he is by the Red Sox FO, SP projected him to start the season in GVL instead of Salem IIRC. Anyway, I hope he proves me wrong and rakes his way to Adv A before the season ends and turns into a must protect ... Time will tell. I’m not too fussed if we lose fringy relievers like Ort from time to time in the Rule 5. Every once in a while, one of those guys significantly raises his ceiling like Pressly did (by going from low 90s FB velo to 95-96 in recent years), but more often than not, those are pretty fungible arms who are readily available on waivers or as minimum salary free agents. I guess Ort could significantly improve his command/control, but at 29 years old, that’s not a likely enough scenario that I feel obliged to add him to the 40-man roster at Jimenez’s expense.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 15, 2021 16:09:57 GMT -5
Funny thing is that I was about to put my list of who I think should be protected before worrying about Arizona/Baltimore picking my speedy Low A OFer, then I refreshed the page and saw your list lol OK so here's where we disagree: I'll protect someones like Crawford/Winckowski/Ort way before Jimenez. In fact, I'd like to see more of Schreff after his promotion and maybe convert German to reliving and see how his stuff plays up in shorter stints, maybe even see what Feltman can do vs AAA lineups. I don't wanna risk having one of these arms turning into the next Ryan Pressley. I feel like Jimenez is valued by the staff here more than he is by the Red Sox FO, SP projected him to start the season in GVL instead of Salem IIRC. Anyway, I hope he proves me wrong and rakes his way to Adv A before the season ends and turns into a must protect ... Time will tell. I’m not too fussed if we lose fringy relievers like Ort from time to time in the Rule 5. Every once in a while, one of those guys significantly raises his ceiling like Pressly did (by going from low 90s FB velo to 95-96 in recent years), but more often than not, those are pretty fungible arms who are readily available on waivers or as minimum salary free agents. I guess Ort could significantly improve his command/control, but at 29 years old, that’s not a likely enough scenario that I feel obliged to add him to the 40-man roster at Jimenez’s expense. I agree of the three on radiohix list the only one I'd be kind of bummed about losing is winckowski and that's more or less because sox traded beni for him + more and part of me just wants to be able to look back and say we won the trade.
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Post by jmei on Jul 15, 2021 16:11:48 GMT -5
Wink has legit SP potential—I haven’t done the roster analysis, but assuming a 40-man spot is available, I’d protect him.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 15, 2021 16:25:29 GMT -5
Ort's best chance of being on the 40-man is if he's added during the season. I don't see them passing on him all year and then necessitating him in the offseason. He and Schreiber are fair bets to stick if someone likes them, though.
I would be very, very surprised if Winckowski isn't added. It's a step below Downs/Bello/Jimenez, but it's like 90% likely instead of 98%.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 15, 2021 16:39:48 GMT -5
Here's where I'm at right now: About to be addedJarren Duran Certain to be addedBrayan Bello Jeter Downs Gilberto Jimenez Would've been certain, but how do we factor in TJ?Thaddeus Ward Likely to be addedFrank German Josh Winckowski Possibly added but likely not given roster crunchKutter Crawford Durbin Feltman Kaleb Ort AJ Politi Alex Scherff John Schreiber Unlikely to be added but worth mentioningTyler Dearden Tyler Esplin Ryan Fitzgerald Devlin Granberg Oddanier Mosqueda Aaron Perry Ceddanne Rafaela Tyreque Reed I do not feel confident about the above at all, fwiw. I've been wondering about Feltman and Scherff. They both seem to fit the previously mentioned mold of a reliever who gets stashed for the year. Who do you keep if you have to pick one? For me it’s Scherff
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