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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 3, 2021 9:14:35 GMT -5
Folks, this is the 2021 Rule 5 Draft thread. Let's stay on topic or at least close to it. Thanks.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 5, 2021 0:24:26 GMT -5
I wonder if the Sox will add Ryan Fitzgerald to the 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 6, 2021 8:34:44 GMT -5
Can anyone tell me how to find the “list” tab (which included Rule 5 eligible, Minor League FA,...).
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 6, 2021 8:39:38 GMT -5
Can anyone tell me how to find the “list” tab (which included Rule 5 eligible, Minor League FA,...). It's not a tab. From the new home page, it's in a box called lists on the right (just below the Twitter feed) ADD: I guess you can find it at the top of the Forum page, too (old design). Top row, far right - literally called lists
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 8, 2021 0:39:33 GMT -5
Can anyone tell me how to find the “list” tab (which included Rule 5 eligible, Minor League FA,...). It's not a tab. From the new home page, it's in a box called lists on the right (just below the Twitter feed) ADD: I guess you can find it at the top of the Forum page, too (old design). Top row, far right - literally called lists Thank you
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 11, 2021 23:29:46 GMT -5
As of mid September my updated list:
Certain to be added Brayan Bello Gilberto Jimenez Kutter Crawford
Likely to be added, not certain Jester Downs Josh Winckowski Ryan Fitzgerald Durbin Feltman
Possibly added but likely not Victor Santos Frank German Kaleb Ort Jose Adames (MLFfA) John Schreiber
Unlikely to be added but worth mentioning Tyler Dearden Tyler Esplin Devlin Granberg Aaron Perry Ceddanne Rafaela Tyreque Reed AJPoliti
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Post by widewordofsport on Sept 18, 2021 6:37:05 GMT -5
I think there's a lot of guys who in a normal year would get drafted but I also assume a lot of other teams have an Ort/Fitzgerald they are risking thanks to the Covid year. Personally I am more curious about Downs/Jiminez if both are truly locks. Boston spent the year showcasing what Downs can do against advanced pitching right now, and Jimenez approach/results have proven he's a high risk of not making the majors. I wouldn't consider Winckowski a sure thing either. I didn't Hernandez a few months ago, but he's probably played his way into staying on. Also assume they would love to trade JDM off and Schwarber on, with the flexibility it gives to DH Dalbec/Shwarber/Devers whenever they would like.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 20, 2021 17:43:35 GMT -5
Who is added to the 40-man roster before the Rule 5 draft is always interesting. I was down on Downs until he picked up BA and HRs the last couple weeks of the season. IMO 40-man spots available for FA and Rule 5 adds is roughly 7. Rule 5 adds: Bryan Bello Gilberto Jimenez Jeter Downs Kutter Crawford Josh Winckowski Durbin Feltman
IMO Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario, and Franchy Cordero, will be subtractions from the 40-man through trade for whatever Bloom can get.
I wonder how many Rule 5 selections will be made overall. Bloom may find another Diamond in the rough, but this year he has less room on the 40-man because of the improvement in the overall system.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 21, 2021 20:59:42 GMT -5
Naming Feltman the org's minor league RP of the year is interesting. I was inclined to leave him off but I'm now wondering if they like him enough internally to add him.
Also I think the last two weeks bump to Worcester for Winckowski should probably make clear they're likely protecting him.
My current projection, assuming no trades, is the same as soxfan's: Brayan Bello Kutter Crawford Jeter Downs Durbin Feltman (admittedly just trying this on for a bit at this point) Gilberto Jimenez Josh Winckowski
May be selected Ryan Fitzgerald Frank German Kaleb Ort AJ Politi
Guy I still have no idea what to do with Thaddeus Ward
Might get discussed but won't get picked Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 22, 2021 16:58:47 GMT -5
Naming Feltman the org's minor league RP of the year is interesting. I was inclined to leave him off but I'm now wondering if they like him enough internally to add him. Also I think the last two weeks bump to Worcester for Winckowski should probably make clear they're likely protecting him. My current projection, assuming no trades, is the same as soxfan's: Brayan Bello Kutter Crawford Jeter Downs Durbin Feltman (admittedly just trying this on for a bit at this point) Gilberto Jimenez Josh Winckowski May be selected Ryan Fitzgerald Frank German Kaleb Ort AJ Politi Guy I still have no idea what to do with Thaddeus Ward Might get discussed but won't get picked Ceddanne Rafaela If there is room, I could see Ryan Fitzgerald added to the 40-man as an up/down infielder similar to Arauz maybe with a better bat even if his defense is not quite as good.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 23, 2021 12:37:53 GMT -5
Team has 40 on the 40 for the first time all year, I think, so that makes projecting a little easier.
The following 40-man spots are going to, in theory, open up. Rodriguez Pérez Ottavino Richards Santana Schwarber Robles Shaw
I figure of that 8, they net 5 at most - Rodriguez must be re-signed or replaced, as probably 2 bullpen arms must. You could even argue as few as 2 or 3 spots open if they re-sign Schwarber (or sign equivalent) and sign a 2B and/or a bench utility guy.
So then it becomes who would they DFA to protect guys. I think Potts and Rosario are both possibilities.
So without projecting trades, I'd call it 4-6 spots maybe? So it's that group of 6 I listed above, with Ward a wild card, and Downs, Bello, Crawford, Winckowski presenting the sure things and Jimenez and Feltman the other possibilities. At least to me.
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art
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Posts: 341
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Post by art on Oct 24, 2021 12:37:41 GMT -5
Team has 40 on the 40 for the first time all year, I think, so that makes projecting a little easier. The following 40-man spots are going to, in theory, open up. Rodriguez Pérez Ottavino Richards Santana Schwarber Robles Shaw I figure of that 8, they net 5 at most - Rodriguez must be re-signed or replaced, as probably 2 bullpen arms must. You could even argue as few as 2 or 3 spots open if they re-sign Schwarber (or sign equivalent) and sign a 2B and/or a bench utility guy. So then it becomes who would they DFA to protect guys. I think Potts and Rosario are both possibilities. So without projecting trades, I'd call it 4-6 spots maybe? So it's that group of 6 I listed above, with Ward a wild card, and Downs, Bello, Crawford, Winckowski presenting the sure things and Jimenez and Feltman the other possibilities. At least to me. Since 2015 there have been an average of 15 players per year selected in the MLB phase. 71% of these have been pitchers. What are the chances that Downs, coming off a .190/.272/.333 season at AAA, will be considered one of the 5 most desirable selections available among position players?
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 24, 2021 13:27:39 GMT -5
Team has 40 on the 40 for the first time all year, I think, so that makes projecting a little easier. The following 40-man spots are going to, in theory, open up. Rodriguez Pérez Ottavino Richards Santana Schwarber Robles Shaw I figure of that 8, they net 5 at most - Rodriguez must be re-signed or replaced, as probably 2 bullpen arms must. You could even argue as few as 2 or 3 spots open if they re-sign Schwarber (or sign equivalent) and sign a 2B and/or a bench utility guy. So then it becomes who would they DFA to protect guys. I think Potts and Rosario are both possibilities. So without projecting trades, I'd call it 4-6 spots maybe? So it's that group of 6 I listed above, with Ward a wild card, and Downs, Bello, Crawford, Winckowski presenting the sure things and Jimenez and Feltman the other possibilities. At least to me. Since 2015 there have been an average of 15 players per year selected in the MLB phase. 71% of these have been pitchers. What are the chances that Downs, coming off a .190/.272/.333 season at AAA, will be considered one of the 5 most desirable selections available among position players? Considering his physical tools, ability to play the middle infield, and offensive performance so far in the Arizona Fall League, nearly 100%.
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Post by voiceofreason on Oct 24, 2021 14:05:18 GMT -5
Since 2015 there have been an average of 15 players per year selected in the MLB phase. 71% of these have been pitchers. What are the chances that Downs, coming off a .190/.272/.333 season at AAA, will be considered one of the 5 most desirable selections available among position players? Considering his physical tools, ability to play the middle infield, and offensive performance so far in the Arizona Fall League, nearly 100%. For sure one of the perennial bottom dwellers would be willing to keep him on the roster for a year as a lottery ticket. Heck Seattle almost made the playoffs with multiple guys hitting in the 100s for most of the season. Offense was really down across the league this year.
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art
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Post by art on Oct 24, 2021 14:13:19 GMT -5
Is there any single place to see which of each team's prospects are in need of 40-man protection?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 24, 2021 21:07:16 GMT -5
Is there any single place to see which of each team's prospects are in need of 40-man protection? Sox Prospects dot com. soxprospects.com/rule5.htm(In the spirit of teaching a man to fish as well as giving him the fish, scroll down the site and on the right and left hand sides are a number of links, including that one. Check them all out!)
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 24, 2021 21:09:05 GMT -5
Since 2015 there have been an average of 15 players per year selected in the MLB phase. 71% of these have been pitchers. What are the chances that Downs, coming off a .190/.272/.333 season at AAA, will be considered one of the 5 most desirable selections available among position players? Considering his physical tools, ability to play the middle infield, and offensive performance so far in the Arizona Fall League, nearly 100%. For example, if Jonathan Araúz got selected in 2019, why on earth wouldn't Downs get selected this year? Hell, he'd get picked off of his first week in Arizona alone. The reason not many position players get picked is because it's usually really obvious who needs to be protected and those guys get protected. With pitchers, you can sometimes pop a guy who is in High-A and throws in the upper 90s and hope he figures it out. There's no real similar situation with hitters.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Oct 24, 2021 21:15:18 GMT -5
Team has 40 on the 40 for the first time all year, I think, so that makes projecting a little easier. The following 40-man spots are going to, in theory, open up. Rodriguez Pérez Ottavino Richards Santana Schwarber Robles Shaw I figure of that 8, they net 5 at most - Rodriguez must be re-signed or replaced, as probably 2 bullpen arms must. You could even argue as few as 2 or 3 spots open if they re-sign Schwarber (or sign equivalent) and sign a 2B and/or a bench utility guy. So then it becomes who would they DFA to protect guys. I think Potts and Rosario are both possibilities. So without projecting trades, I'd call it 4-6 spots maybe? So it's that group of 6 I listed above, with Ward a wild card, and Downs, Bello, Crawford, Winckowski presenting the sure things and Jimenez and Feltman the other possibilities. At least to me. Since 2015 there have been an average of 15 players per year selected in the MLB phase. 71% of these have been pitchers. What are the chances that Downs, coming off a .190/.272/.333 season at AAA, will be considered one of the 5 most desirable selections available among position players? A billion percent, I do not understand this logic given the prospect profile, his age, and proximity to the bigs. It’s insane some people want to suggest not protecting a 10 prospect for nothing because he had a down 2.5 months at a level that was probably a little too aggressive for him. Usually it would be for a reliever too
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 24, 2021 21:17:52 GMT -5
Going through the last few Rule 5 drafts, Downs would almost certainly go first. It would be extremely easy for Baltimore or Arizona to keep him. He would arguably be the best middle infielder in the Orioles organization. Not "middle infield prospect" but the best current middle infielder.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 24, 2021 21:36:33 GMT -5
The thing to remember about these gambits to sneak a guy past the Rule 5 draft is that the upside of an extra 40 man roster spot is like, the Red Sox don't have to DFA Phillips Valdez.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 24, 2021 21:40:32 GMT -5
The thing to remember about these gambits to sneak a guy past the Rule 5 draft is that an extra 40 man roster space means the Red Sox get to keep like, Phillips Valdez. That's exactly it. Like, there's a legitimate debate to be had over whether you'd risk losing Durbin Feltman or Frank German to keep Phillips Valdez, but you absolutely do not risk losing Jeter Downs to keep him.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Oct 27, 2021 16:28:24 GMT -5
It just occurred to me that a position player in A ball is really unlikely to stay on an MLB roster for a whole year. Baltimore and Pittsburgh are really, really bad, but could Gilberto Jimenez slip through the Rule-5 draft without needing to be added to the 40-man?? He is a really long ways from the MLB......
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 27, 2021 17:39:31 GMT -5
Yeah that's a legitimate question that got brought up earlier in the thread. It's the only reason I have Jimenez slightly outside the Downs-Bello-Crawford-Winckowski certain protects group.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Oct 28, 2021 9:30:59 GMT -5
I'm hoping the Sox do a 2 or 3 for 1 trade with a team that isn't as deep. That might even lead to an opening for selecting a Rule 5 of our own.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 28, 2021 11:10:35 GMT -5
I'm hoping the Sox do a 2 or 3 for 1 trade with a team that isn't as deep. That might even lead to an opening for selecting a Rule 5 of our own. I might've thought that at one point, but I don't think they even have much of a crunch anymore. Recall Eric Longenhagen highlighting like 8 or more teams a month or two ago who had worse Rule 5 jams than the Red Sox do. There are interesting calls to be made on the likes of Jimenez, Feltman, and Ward, but I don't think the issue is space - they can make it if they want it.
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