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Post by foreverred9 on Oct 28, 2021 11:50:50 GMT -5
The talent in the rule 5 draft will be telling this year. This being the first year of 26-man rosters, teams must be feeling the crunch.
To get around it, we'll either see more and more contracts like what Franchy got to keep deserving players off the roster or an increase in the talent level of the "last man off" which would translate into stronger rule 5 talent.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Nov 3, 2021 9:59:48 GMT -5
A detailed look at what to expect this off season with the CBA negotiations looming by Chat Jennings. Note the shout out. theathletic.com/2919187/2021/11/03/red-sox-offseason-guide-what-to-expect-before-cba-potentially-plunges-sport-into-darkness/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983Nov. 19: Rule 5 protection Last winter, the Yankees faced a 40-man roster crunch that forced them to leave valuable players exposed to the Rule 5 draft. They crossed their fingers on Whitlock and ultimately lost him to their greatest rivals, who saw him transform into a seemingly elite young pitcher. Well, now the shoe is on the other foot, because it’s the Red Sox who face a roster crunch this winter. As always, the crew at SoxProspects does a wonderful job of keeping track of all the Rule 5 eligible players. We’ll single out these eight: Jeter Downs (2B/SS): Rough year in Triple A but finished strong, then got off to an incredible start in the Arizona Fall League. Upside is too great to leave him exposed, especially given his versatility that could easily stick as a utilityman. Bryan Bello (SP): One of the risings stars of the Red Sox system, he should be another lock for protection. Not out of the question that he pitches his way into the big-league mix next summer. Gilberto Jimenez (OF): He’s very young (21, with only 94 games at the full-season level), but he’s also extremely talented, with a switch-hit and speed profile that could stick as a fourth or fifth outfielder. It would be very risky to dangle this level of talent. Josh Winckowski (SP): Possibly the most important piece of the Andrew Benintendi trade, Winckowski showed enough this season to suggest he could be a viable big-league option in 2022. Kutter Crawford (SP): Made his big-league debut this season, but because he was a COVID-19 replacement, he wasn’t actually added to the 40-man roster. The fact he was called up, though, shows the Red Sox take him seriously as a big-league option. Put himself on the map in his return from Tommy John surgery. Durbin Feltman (RP): College closer was expected to be fast-tracked, but his professional career stalled in Double A in 2019. He got moving again with a strong 2021 split between Double and Triple A, but is he more than an up-and-down middle-inning arm? Ryan Fitzgerald (utility): Undrafted infielder has performed too well to ignore. He’s credited with being a reliable defender, and he had an .862 OPS between Double A and Triple A this year. An obvious bench candidate if left exposed. Thaddeus Ward (SP): Is this the Red Sox version of Whitlock? Ward was terrific in 2019 and opened 2021 in Double A, but he had Tommy John surgery after just two starts. If the Sox don’t protect him, someone else could take Ward and let him rehab without needing to put him immediately on the active roster. That’s already a lot of strong Rule 5 candidates to consider, and it’s to say nothing of pitchers Kaleb Ort, AJ Politi, Victor Santos and Frank German, or position players Kole Cotham, Pedro Castellanos and Ceddanne Rafaela. The Red Sox almost certainly will not have room for all of them, which means we could see some early maneuvering to trade away fringe players (Phillips Valdez, Ronaldo Hernández, Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario) to open spots on the 40-man roster for this next wave. |
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 3, 2021 13:47:47 GMT -5
A detailed look at what to expect this off season with the CBA negotiations looming by Chat Jennings. Note the shout out. theathletic.com/2919187/2021/11/03/red-sox-offseason-guide-what-to-expect-before-cba-potentially-plunges-sport-into-darkness/?source=dailyemail&campaign=601983Nov. 19: Rule 5 protection Last winter, the Yankees faced a 40-man roster crunch that forced them to leave valuable players exposed to the Rule 5 draft. They crossed their fingers on Whitlock and ultimately lost him to their greatest rivals, who saw him transform into a seemingly elite young pitcher. Well, now the shoe is on the other foot, because it’s the Red Sox who face a roster crunch this winter. As always, the crew at SoxProspects does a wonderful job of keeping track of all the Rule 5 eligible players. We’ll single out these eight: Jeter Downs (2B/SS): Rough year in Triple A but finished strong, then got off to an incredible start in the Arizona Fall League. Upside is too great to leave him exposed, especially given his versatility that could easily stick as a utilityman. Bryan Bello (SP): One of the risings stars of the Red Sox system, he should be another lock for protection. Not out of the question that he pitches his way into the big-league mix next summer. Gilberto Jimenez (OF): He’s very young (21, with only 94 games at the full-season level), but he’s also extremely talented, with a switch-hit and speed profile that could stick as a fourth or fifth outfielder. It would be very risky to dangle this level of talent. Josh Winckowski (SP): Possibly the most important piece of the Andrew Benintendi trade, Winckowski showed enough this season to suggest he could be a viable big-league option in 2022. Kutter Crawford (SP): Made his big-league debut this season, but because he was a COVID-19 replacement, he wasn’t actually added to the 40-man roster. The fact he was called up, though, shows the Red Sox take him seriously as a big-league option. Put himself on the map in his return from Tommy John surgery. Durbin Feltman (RP): College closer was expected to be fast-tracked, but his professional career stalled in Double A in 2019. He got moving again with a strong 2021 split between Double and Triple A, but is he more than an up-and-down middle-inning arm? Ryan Fitzgerald (utility): Undrafted infielder has performed too well to ignore. He’s credited with being a reliable defender, and he had an .862 OPS between Double A and Triple A this year. An obvious bench candidate if left exposed. Thaddeus Ward (SP): Is this the Red Sox version of Whitlock? Ward was terrific in 2019 and opened 2021 in Double A, but he had Tommy John surgery after just two starts. If the Sox don’t protect him, someone else could take Ward and let him rehab without needing to put him immediately on the active roster. That’s already a lot of strong Rule 5 candidates to consider, and it’s to say nothing of pitchers Kaleb Ort, AJ Politi, Victor Santos and Frank German, or position players Kole Cotham, Pedro Castellanos and Ceddanne Rafaela. The Red Sox almost certainly will not have room for all of them, which means we could see some early maneuvering to trade away fringe players (Phillips Valdez, Ronaldo Hernández, Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario) to open spots on the 40-man roster for this next wave. Thanks, this is awesome |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 16, 2021 4:28:43 GMT -5
Doing the math: 33 guys at present, minus Reissario, Potts, and Hernandez (Valdez, with his remaining option, is too useful to dump), plus 6 acquisitions as the projected roster has it (which I think is right), leaves room for 4 additions: Downs, Bello, Jimenez and Winckowski.
They may be able to get creative and create a 5th opening, but I think a chief strategy will be to trade guys that seem likely to be drafted (e.g., Crawford, Feltman, and Ward) for interesting non-eligible guys of comparable apparent value, with the hopes of stealing a better prospect or two.
We now return you to the regularly scheduled doing more important things.  (I do have some thoughts on the post-season that I'll get to eventually.)
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Post by jimgosger on Nov 16, 2021 7:40:53 GMT -5
I would trade Jimenez and keep Crawford. Crawford is pitching very well in the Dominican right now and Jimenez, IMO, is 3 years away from being a 4th OF.
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Post by iakovos11 on Nov 16, 2021 7:56:36 GMT -5
I would trade Jimenez and keep Crawford. Crawford is pitching very well in the Dominican right now and Jimenez, IMO, is 3 years away from being a 4th OF. If they want Houck and/or Whitlock in the rotation this year, I think Crawford could be that multi inning reliever replacement for one of them. I'd keep Crawford. |
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 16, 2021 8:16:53 GMT -5
You got to protect Ward. Right? Too much talent there.
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Nov 16, 2021 9:34:48 GMT -5
Do we know when the R5 deadline is? I think we make a trade before it, but don't think there will be a lot of trades at the fringes of the 40 man this year since so many teams will be against the limit. So I think the trade will be from the legit prospect group (Duran/Gilberto high on the list)
I want to keep each of Crawford/Feldman/Ward. There might be logic for keeping a spot open for someone who falls through the cracks elsewhere, though we have a much lower draft pick than last year obviously. I think most/all of the other fringe guys get through. Crawford might even as well, but I doubt Feldman or Ward do.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 16, 2021 9:46:53 GMT -5
Do we know when the R5 deadline is? I think we make a trade before it, but don't think there will be a lot of trades at the fringes of the 40 man this year since so many teams will be against the limit. So I think the trade will be from the legit prospect group (Duran/Gilberto high on the list) I want to keep each of Crawford/Feldman/Ward. There might be logic for keeping a spot open for someone who falls through the cracks elsewhere, though we have a much lower draft pick than last year obviously. I think most/all of the other fringe guys get through. Crawford might even as well, but I doubt Feldman or Ward do. The deadline to add Rule 5 eligible players to the 40 man roster is this Friday (unclear on time, but probably 5pm EST?). |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 16, 2021 10:06:46 GMT -5
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 16, 2021 10:29:33 GMT -5
Do we know when the R5 deadline is? I think we make a trade before it, but don't think there will be a lot of trades at the fringes of the 40 man this year since so many teams will be against the limit. So I think the trade will be from the legit prospect group (Duran/Gilberto high on the list) I want to keep each of Crawford/Feldman/Ward. There might be logic for keeping a spot open for someone who falls through the cracks elsewhere, though we have a much lower draft pick than last year obviously. I think most/all of the other fringe guys get through. Crawford might even as well, but I doubt Feldman or Ward do. I agree on Ward. But I just don't see the big deal about Kutter. Help me out here. He seems like at best a back of the rotation answer and at worst someone that will be a AAAA talent. Not everyone can be a great player but this is the kind of guy who might be best suited to package in a trade. Someone getting a little bit of helium from this year and the fall league. Might be a useful trade chip. |
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 16, 2021 10:34:36 GMT -5
Do we know when the R5 deadline is? I think we make a trade before it, but don't think there will be a lot of trades at the fringes of the 40 man this year since so many teams will be against the limit. So I think the trade will be from the legit prospect group (Duran/Gilberto high on the list) I want to keep each of Crawford/Feldman/Ward. There might be logic for keeping a spot open for someone who falls through the cracks elsewhere, though we have a much lower draft pick than last year obviously. I think most/all of the other fringe guys get through. Crawford might even as well, but I doubt Feldman or Ward do. I agree on Ward. But I just don't see the big deal about Kutter. Help me out here. He seems like at best a back of the rotation answer and at worst someone that will be a AAAA talent. Not everyone can be a great player but this is the kind of guy who might be best suited to package in a trade. Someone getting a little bit of helium from this year and the fall league. Might be a useful trade chip. Perhaps it's a little bit of remembering 2020 and some of the guys they were running out and not wanting to lose Crawford for nothing. I agree he's probably never more than a JAG but he's cheap and controlled. |
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Nov 16, 2021 10:56:40 GMT -5
I agree on Ward. But I just don't see the big deal about Kutter. Help me out here. He seems like at best a back of the rotation answer and at worst someone that will be a AAAA talent. Not everyone can be a great player but this is the kind of guy who might be best suited to package in a trade. Someone getting a little bit of helium from this year and the fall league. Might be a useful trade chip. Perhaps it's a little bit of remembering 2020 and some of the guys they were running out and not wanting to lose Crawford for nothing. I agree he's probably never more than a JAG but he's cheap and controlled. Also if we don't have him we still need guys like him on the 40 (spot starter with solid reliever upside). |
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 16, 2021 11:05:43 GMT -5
I agree on Ward. But I just don't see the big deal about Kutter. Help me out here. He seems like at best a back of the rotation answer and at worst someone that will be a AAAA talent. Not everyone can be a great player but this is the kind of guy who might be best suited to package in a trade. Someone getting a little bit of helium from this year and the fall league. Might be a useful trade chip. Perhaps it's a little bit of remembering 2020 and some of the guys they were running out and not wanting to lose Crawford for nothing. I agree he's probably never more than a JAG but he's cheap and controlled. If I remember correctly they can trade certain players before the deadline. What I'm saying is simply instead of burning a spot on Crawford just deal him for someone who wouldn't be eligible for the rule 5 this year. Or deal him in a package with a couple of other players for someone who would be a fit for the 26 man roster before the deadline this week. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 16, 2021 11:46:58 GMT -5
Perhaps it's a little bit of remembering 2020 and some of the guys they were running out and not wanting to lose Crawford for nothing. I agree he's probably never more than a JAG but he's cheap and controlled. If I remember correctly they can trade certain players before the deadline. What I'm saying is simply instead of burning a spot on Crawford just deal him for someone who wouldn't be eligible for the rule 5 this year. Or deal him in a package with a couple of other players for someone who would be a fit for the 26 man roster before the deadline this week. If he has enough value to get something in a trade, then he has value. If he has value, it's worth considering protecting him instead of losing him for nothing in Rule 5. The threshold isn't "will become a major league regular" for protection. It's some combination of likelihood of being selected and likelihood of sticking versus chances of later having to DFA or otherwise make room. If you're saying they should trade him... then they should protect him until they trade him, rather than just lose him. If they're making the sort of deal you're talking about, then the receiving team is going to add him to the 40-man most likely, so I don't see the rush. The 40-man is currently at 33. They have tons of room, in the short term at least. I think there's a very high likelihood that if Crawford is left unprotected, he would be picked and he would probably stick. That's why I have him in at least the highly likely to be protected category. |
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 16, 2021 13:35:08 GMT -5
If I remember correctly they can trade certain players before the deadline. What I'm saying is simply instead of burning a spot on Crawford just deal him for someone who wouldn't be eligible for the rule 5 this year. Or deal him in a package with a couple of other players for someone who would be a fit for the 26 man roster before the deadline this week. If he has enough value to get something in a trade, then he has value. If he has value, it's worth considering protecting him instead of losing him for nothing in Rule 5. The threshold isn't "will become a major league regular" for protection. It's some combination of likelihood of being selected and likelihood of sticking versus chances of later having to DFA or otherwise make room. If you're saying they should trade him... then they should protect him until they trade him, rather than just lose him. If they're making the sort of deal you're talking about, then the receiving team is going to add him to the 40-man most likely, so I don't see the rush. The 40-man is currently at 33. They have tons of room, in the short term at least. I think there's a very high likelihood that if Crawford is left unprotected, he would be picked and he would probably stick. That's why I have him in at least the highly likely to be protected category. I was of course forgetting how soon the deadline was ... I should have made it clear that the three guys I said need to be (ultimately) traded for pre-eligible guys (Ward, Crawford, and Feltman) need to be protected now and traded later when we need to open up space for acquisitions. And it's always better to fill roster needs via trades than by FA signings. In fact, I could see them filling a rotation spot, both bullpen spots, and the Casas-placeholder LHB 1B via trade rather than free agency. You could see them trading Ward for a guy they think is the next Pivetta, e.g.
Protecting 4 keepers + 3 to trade would put us at 40. The open questions are 1) how many of the trio of likely trims do you trim now, and 2) is there anyone else you add, e.g., Fitzgerald? Rafaela would't surprise me. You want to end up at 39 in case there's another Whitlock out there.
There are of course scenarios where Jimenez or even Downs are one of the traded-away players. The math here is, the top-secret internal evaluation versus what other teams think.
My guess is that they protect the 7 obvious guys and Rafaela and DFA or trade Potts and Rosario while keeping Hernandez for the time being.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 16, 2021 14:09:08 GMT -5
If he has enough value to get something in a trade, then he has value. If he has value, it's worth considering protecting him instead of losing him for nothing in Rule 5. The threshold isn't "will become a major league regular" for protection. It's some combination of likelihood of being selected and likelihood of sticking versus chances of later having to DFA or otherwise make room. If you're saying they should trade him... then they should protect him until they trade him, rather than just lose him. If they're making the sort of deal you're talking about, then the receiving team is going to add him to the 40-man most likely, so I don't see the rush. The 40-man is currently at 33. They have tons of room, in the short term at least. I think there's a very high likelihood that if Crawford is left unprotected, he would be picked and he would probably stick. That's why I have him in at least the highly likely to be protected category. I was of course forgetting how soon the deadline was ... I should have made it clear that the three guys I said need to be (ultimately) traded for pre-eligible guys (Ward, Crawford, and Feltman) need to be protected now and traded later when we need to open up space for acquisitions. And it's always better to fill roster needs via trades than by FA signings. In fact, I could see them filling a rotation spot, both bullpen spots, and the Casas-placeholder LHB 1B via trade rather than free agency. You could see them trading Ward for a guy they think is the next Pivetta, e.g.
Protecting 4 keepers + 3 to trade would put us at 40. The open questions are 1) how many of the trio of likely trims do you trim now, and 2) is there anyone else you add, e.g., Fitzgerald? Rafaela would't surprise me. You want to end up at 39 in case there's another Whitlock out there.
There are of course scenarios where Jimenez or even Downs are one of the traded-away players. The math here is, the top-secret internal evaluation versus what other teams think.
My guess is that they protect the 7 obvious guys and Rafaela and DFA or trade Potts and Rosario while keeping Hernandez for the time being.
Good stuff, but if there's another Whitlock out there, he's going to be picked by a team picking in the top 5 the way we were last year, right? |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 16, 2021 15:44:04 GMT -5
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Nov 17, 2021 12:07:18 GMT -5
I would trade Jimenez and keep Crawford. Crawford is pitching very well in the Dominican right now and Jimenez, IMO, is 3 years away from being a 4th OF. IMHO, Jimenez is too far away from the MLB to keep on an MLB roster for an entire season, meaning whichever team who drafts him will end up returning him (if he is drafted at all). I would also keep Crawford as a multi-inning long man.He can start the season in low leverage, but his strikeout/walk and stuff imo will make him a valuable MLB pitcher. |
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Post by mobaz on Nov 17, 2021 14:20:07 GMT -5
I would trade Jimenez and keep Crawford. Crawford is pitching very well in the Dominican right now and Jimenez, IMO, is 3 years away from being a 4th OF. IMHO, Jimenez is too far away from the MLB to keep on an MLB roster for an entire season, meaning whichever team who drafts him will end up returning him (if he is drafted at all). I would also keep Crawford as a multi-inning long man.He can start the season in low leverage, but his strikeout/walk and stuff imo will make him a valuable MLB pitcher. Jimenez is also in that development zone where being put on the 40 man (or being taken in R5) can potentially cause rushed decisions on promotions/options and even stunt growth. I'd love to see the new CBA address some of these issues (16 year old signees needing to be protected so early, the 40 man now has one fewer minor leaguer with 26 now on ML, etc.) but I don't think the "stewards" of the game actually think about its future this way. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 17, 2021 15:47:17 GMT -5
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Post by ramireja on Nov 17, 2021 16:51:37 GMT -5
From Speier's chat:
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 17, 2021 22:39:47 GMT -5
I was of course forgetting how soon the deadline was ... I should have made it clear that the three guys I said need to be (ultimately) traded for pre-eligible guys (Ward, Crawford, and Feltman) need to be protected now and traded later when we need to open up space for acquisitions. And it's always better to fill roster needs via trades than by FA signings. In fact, I could see them filling a rotation spot, both bullpen spots, and the Casas-placeholder LHB 1B via trade rather than free agency. You could see them trading Ward for a guy they think is the next Pivetta, e.g.
Protecting 4 keepers + 3 to trade would put us at 40. The open questions are 1) how many of the trio of likely trims do you trim now, and 2) is there anyone else you add, e.g., Fitzgerald? Rafaela would't surprise me. You want to end up at 39 in case there's another Whitlock out there.
There are of course scenarios where Jimenez or even Downs are one of the traded-away players. The math here is, the top-secret internal evaluation versus what other teams think.
My guess is that they protect the 7 obvious guys and Rafaela and DFA or trade Potts and Rosario while keeping Hernandez for the time being.
Good stuff, but if there's another Whitlock out there, he's going to be picked by a team picking in the top 5 the way we were last year, right? I was just being lazy there ... I almost typed "Arauz" but thought that would be less interesting! Yeah, a Whitlock relative to draft position ... and I believe we had the 18 or 19 pick for Arauz vs. 23 this year. But if a lot of teams fill their roster, it might be effectively a good deal higher, so that's probably a solid comp. I don't see a 40th guy you'd be concerned about losing.
OTOH, I think the only workable roster spot for a guy you keep all year would be, again, a reliever. But that's exactly the position where you're most likely to find someone underrated.
Trivia note: Ryan Pressly also was taken with the 4th spot in the draft. He and Whitlock both pitched in game 4 and that nicely symmetric relationship of course went unmentioned on TV.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 18, 2021 10:49:34 GMT -5
Sox selected Araúz with the 17th pick, but he was the 10th selection.
Worth noting that 10 Rule 5 picks stuck this year, by my count using the always reliable Wikipedia, which seems high. That extra roster spot has made it easier to stash a guy, it seems. Compare to 4 in 2019 and 3 in 2018,for example.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 18, 2021 11:03:04 GMT -5
We said similar on the pod. The "problem" is that Rafaela could add value on defense, whereas I'm not sure Jimenez could be counted on to do much of anything this year at the MLB level. I don't think they protect either. |
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(I do have some thoughts on the post-season that I'll get to eventually.)
