mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Nov 18, 2021 11:23:37 GMT -5
I can't remember a recent occasion where another team picked someone in the R5 to then trade to the Sox; I know there are recent times we've picked on behalf of another team (2014/2012/2011 per this site). I wonder if Bloom is inclined to do that given our minor league depth improvement and the weirder-than-normal R5 year.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Nov 18, 2021 12:07:57 GMT -5
We said similar on the pod. The "problem" is that Rafaela could add value on defense, whereas I'm not sure Jimenez could be counted on to do much of anything this year at the MLB level. I don't think they protect either. great podcast, by the way, listened to it last night. Really good reasoning from you both. |
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Post by bosox904 on Nov 18, 2021 19:21:02 GMT -5
I think on the most recent podcast you guys mentioned the possibility of the Rule 5 draft not happening because of a potential lockout. The baseball america podcast on the Rule 5 draft did mention this, they said in 1994 they still held the draft. That doesn't mean they will this year necessarily, but there is precedent at least.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Nov 19, 2021 2:16:32 GMT -5
This is an optimization problem.
1. An erroneous approach is trying to minimize the error of protecting players who would not be selected.
2. Another erroneous approach is trying to minimize the number of unprotected players that are lost in the draft.
3. The correct approach is a balanced approach that minimizes both errors. If the Sox never lose a player, they are making too many errors of the type in point 1.
.....
I think 6 players are protected.
Not Feltman
Not Fitzgerald
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Post by bcsox on Nov 19, 2021 8:46:04 GMT -5
When is the rule 5 draft?
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Post by soxfansince67 on Nov 19, 2021 9:03:49 GMT -5
When is the rule 5 draft? Supposed to be today, by 5 pm??? |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 19, 2021 9:18:04 GMT -5
The deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft is today, presumably by 5pm (but I've also heard it may be 8pm).
The Rule 5 draft is usually mid-December, although that remains up in the air given the CBA.
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Post by sibbysisti on Nov 19, 2021 10:28:44 GMT -5
When is the rule 5 draft? Schudeled for Dec. 9. It is typically held on the last day of the “Winter” meetings, this year Dec. 6 - 9. Expiration of the CBA on Dec. 1 could have some effect on them. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 19, 2021 11:29:11 GMT -5
FYI - the deadline today is officially 6pm.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Nov 19, 2021 12:40:31 GMT -5
news.soxprospects.com/2021/11/first-take-projecting-protection-day.htmlI feel confident about Bello, Crawford, Downs, Winck, and pretty good about Ward at this point. After that, I have zero feel. I guess I'll project Feltman and Santos but I don't feel good about it, and I have those two in a group with German and Fitzgerald. It could easily be the 5, and I wouldn't bat an eyelash at all 9, and perhaps even others like Rafaela.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 19, 2021 17:00:28 GMT -5
Here's a comment I made at the Athletic, edited to remove stuff previously stated ...
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After the draft the Sox will be looking to add six players, but it might be just five towards the 40-man. They may be able to sign Iglesias to a minor-league deal with an MLB promise.
Anyone who is likely to be taken gets protected, because the worst case is that you have to trade him. So Downs, Bello, Winckowski, Ward, Crawford, and Feltman seem like certain adds. OTOH, Potts and Rosario seem likely to be DFA'd and clear waivers. So that's a net plus 4.
So you're at 37. Adding 5 more guys before ST starts means that you're trading two over the winter (not necessarily from those named already), which isn't bad.
So the tough calls are Rafaela and Jimenez. If you leave them unprotected, there's a small chance of losing them -- do you take that gamble? If you protect them, it means you have to shed someone else via trade to make room for winter pickups. And each player you trade away reduces you near-MLB depth. So how much they value Crawford and Feltman as potential contributors, and (to a lesser extent) Hernandez as an extra catcher, factors in here: the more they like them, the harder it is to protect Rafela and Jimenez.
[Also: if by some chance they can find in the draft a reliever with upside that can stick as an adequate last man in the pen, that's a wash in terms of org depth. Basically, it would be someone they like better than Feltman.]
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 19, 2021 17:11:15 GMT -5
Downs and Winckowski were added, per Cotillo.
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Post by chr31ter on Nov 19, 2021 17:16:54 GMT -5
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 19, 2021 17:22:16 GMT -5
Note that I included Feltman but not Santos ...
Feltman because of his past and reliever volatility and because he's already had AAA success.
Not Santos because I don't see him as effective in MLB jumping from AA, and because of his limited upside.
Obviously they know more than any of us ... any one of the fringe guys Ian listed could be added as a surprise because they (and potential drafting teams) see upside in analytic data we have no awareness of, let alone access to. German in particular could fit that description.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 19, 2021 17:31:17 GMT -5
Cotillo says they're adding 4 guys. Winck, Downs are confirmed. I believe Bello has confirmed on instagram that he was added.
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 19, 2021 17:37:10 GMT -5
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Nov 19, 2021 17:39:33 GMT -5
So Gilberto Jimenez wasn’t protected? I’m shocked 😳 Why is adding Gilberto Jiminez to the 40-man roster is considered a certainty? Sure he's fast but he didn't turn that speed into an asset yet: He's not great defensively and he's not that much of a threat on the base path (70% efficiency in 2019 and 77% in 2021) He makes tons of contact but it's a suboptimal type: Grounders into the ss hole (62.2% GB%!!!!), bloopers in front of the OFers, the Che-Hsuan Lin type of contact if you remember him. He hits for average but it's an empty type of average with no walks or power. Can a team picks him up in the rule 5 draft and keep him in MLB roster for a whole season? I doubt it (Akil Badoo has triple his walks and double his IsoP in Adv A). I think it's reasonable to leave him in Salem for the reminder of the season and see if he shows improvements next year in Greenville, then you add him. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 19, 2021 17:39:39 GMT -5
So the following players are subject to the Rule 5 draft:
Thaddeus Ward
Durbin Feltman
Frank German
Ryan Fitzgerald
Victor Santos
Gilberto Jimenez
Ceddanne Rafaela
AJ Politi
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 19, 2021 17:45:10 GMT -5
Cotillo tweeting that they're "adding four prospects to the 40-man roster", and Speier following suit ... but I find it hard to imagine that they think it's likelier that they lose Potts and Rosario to a waiver claim than Ward and Feltman in the Rule 5, and impossible that they value Potts and Rosario above Ward and Feltman (or Santos or whomever).
More often than not teams DFA failed prospects at the same time they add the new additions. I'll be shocked if the "4 added guys" isn't the net addition and it's add 6, subtract 2.
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Post by geostorm on Nov 19, 2021 18:14:29 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Nov 19, 2021 18:14:44 GMT -5
Cotillo tweeting that they're "adding four prospects to the 40-man roster", and Speier following suit ... but I find it hard to imagine that they think it's likelier that they lose Potts and Rosario to a waiver claim than Ward and Feltman in the Rule 5, and impossible that they value Potts and Rosario above Ward and Feltman (or Santos or whomever).
More often than not teams DFA failed prospects at the same time they add the new additions. I'll be shocked if the "4 added guys" isn't the net addition and it's add 6, subtract 2.
The only added those 4. Team announced it. |
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Post by natesp4 on Nov 19, 2021 18:23:54 GMT -5
I'd just like to point out, I stayed off twitter all day today until I could get a chance to finish this week's podcast. Like I was avoiding spoilers for my favorite TV show. It's a sickness
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Nov 19, 2021 18:26:40 GMT -5
Ward probably gets picked. Jimenez might too.
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Post by wildsox on Nov 19, 2021 18:29:47 GMT -5
I hope we don’t get Whitlocked with someone like Ward
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Post by natesp4 on Nov 19, 2021 18:34:17 GMT -5
Ward probably gets picked. Jimenez might too. If you have ample short term (ie: 2021 off-season) 40-man space it does seem pretty low downside to take Ward. Stick him on the 60-day DL come spring, then in the fall you have the first look at him after recovery. If he pulls a Whitlock and looks filthy, congrats he's an easy stash in 2023. If he's washed up, send him back to the Sox and you lost a whopping 50k out of it. |
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