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Post by redsox04071318champs on Nov 19, 2021 18:49:12 GMT -5
Don't like them not protecting Ward. That one could bite them in the butt.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 19, 2021 18:53:15 GMT -5
Prospects unlikely to help this year - Mata, Groome, Downs, Bello, Hernandez Major league depth ready to get called up - Arauz, Bazardo, Wong, Seabold, Duran, Crawford (Assuming Potts and Rosario are goners)
26 major leaguers + these 11 still leaves you with 3 spots open. Feels like it'd be pretty easy to add another prospect or two. Not sure what their thinking is.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 19, 2021 19:18:42 GMT -5
To me, only protecting 4 players suggests that the Sox believe that 1) many teams will have full rosters and they anticipate few Rule 5 selections, and/or 2) because a number of teams had tough 40-man decisions to make, the Rule 5 eligible talent will be relatively rich overall making it less likely that any of our unprotected guys rank in say the top 15 of most likely to be selected and stick.
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Post by incandenza on Nov 19, 2021 19:20:03 GMT -5
I have a hunch Fitzgerald gets scooped.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 19, 2021 20:07:01 GMT -5
How long would Ward have to be on the active roster (non IL) to make it through a full season with another team?
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Nov 19, 2021 20:33:09 GMT -5
I wonder if Ward’s age left them feeling comfortable that he might not be picked. He’ll probably be, what, 26 next time he throws a pitch? And he hasn’t been above AA? And only has 8 innings in AA?
I can see why they took the risk
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Post by soxinsf on Nov 19, 2021 22:15:06 GMT -5
I have a hunch Fitzgerald gets scooped. Hope he stays in the system. I may not have high expectations for Fitzgerald, and doubt that he ever reaches the bigs as anything other than an emergency fill in, but this is a guy who has worked hard to give himself a chance. Arroyo, Arauz and possibly Iglesias will be ahead of him in the pecking order, not to mention the ghosts of Marwin and Danny in some new guise that Bloom brings in. Still you never know and you have to give the guy credit for not quitting.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 19, 2021 22:29:06 GMT -5
I have a hunch Fitzgerald gets scooped. I like him too but is someone going to invest a roster spot in an older minor leaguer with a ceiling of a UT who isn't a plus SS and has never played OF? He can hit a little but he's not exactly a rare breed. I'm not too worried, particularly since this figures to be a year when a lot of other guys are available around the league and there's only so many 26-man roster spots available.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Nov 19, 2021 22:29:28 GMT -5
I have a hunch Fitzgerald gets scooped. Hope he stays in the system. I may not have high expectations for Fitzgerald, and doubt that he ever reaches the bigs as anything other than an emergency fill in, but this is a guy who has worked hard to give himself a chance. Arroyo, Arauz and possibly Iglesias will be ahead of him in the pecking order, not to mention the ghosts of Marwin and Danny in some new guise that Bloom brings in. Still you never know and you have to give the guy credit for not quitting. 2nd this. It's unlikely Fitzgerald ever becomes a regular but he does sound like a player who can fill in almost anywhere for short spurts and be at least slightly below average. Which ya that doesn't sound like much but that really is a valuable player. But at the same time losing him most likely isn't going to be a scenario where we look back and say darn it how could they let him go.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 19, 2021 22:32:22 GMT -5
How long would Ward have to be on the active roster (non IL) to make it through a full season with another team? 90 days. If he's picked and spends all of 2022 on the IL, he'd have to spend 90 days on the 26-man roster in 2023. I would think he'd have to be pretty special to another team - especially considering how many other guys will be available around the league - for them to wait that long for him.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 19, 2021 22:47:11 GMT -5
How long would Ward have to be on the active roster (non IL) to make it through a full season with another team? 90 days. If he's picked and spends all of 2022 on the IL, he'd have to spend 90 days on the 26-man roster in 2023. I would think he'd have to be pretty special to another team - especially considering how many other guys will be available around the league - for them to wait that long for him.
He got TJS in what June? So it's looking like he'd need to spend 2022 and 2023 on a 40 man for some team then. Maybe this is why they risked it.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 19, 2021 23:12:51 GMT -5
So the following players are subject to the Rule 5 draft: Thaddeus Ward Durbin Feltman Frank German Ryan Fitzgerald Victor Santos Gilberto Jimenez Ceddanne Rafaela AJ Politi I'm most surprised about Ward and Jimenez but feel like the most likely to haunt us may be Santos and Feltman. I would bet money Cashman takes one of them for PR reasons alone. Rafaela would be a bold selection by a bottom-feeder; he could get by with his glove off a big league bench in 2022 but would need to make it back to the bigs within the next three years. Seems possible and a cheap investment.
What Chaim knows that none of us know is which guys were asked about by potential trading partners at the trade deadline and last off-season. Maybe he tried to offer Jimenez or Rafaela or Feltman to someone and was rebuffed.
What I'm most curious about is how many guys Chaim will take from other teams. With 3 open spots plus Potts, Rosario, Valdez, and even Arauz expendable, it's not like there's a real crunch. Eventually there will need to be space for at least two more starters, maybe a 1B, and a few relievers.
Let's hope cooler heads prevail in CBA talks and we're not waiting forever for this to play out.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Nov 19, 2021 23:27:56 GMT -5
Will the red Sox be active in the Rule 5 draft?
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 19, 2021 23:59:06 GMT -5
Will the red Sox be active in the Rule 5 draft? They'd have to trade up. They got one of the worst spots in the draft as opposed to the past 2 years.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 20, 2021 8:55:55 GMT -5
There is no reason Potts should be on the 40 man. They could’ve waived him and if someone picked him up, whatever. But I doubt it would’ve happened.
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2021 9:14:52 GMT -5
There is no reason Potts should be on the 40 man. They could’ve waived him and if someone picked him up, whatever. But I doubt it would’ve happened. They have other open 40-man spots so never needed to DFA him now. No reason to DFA him now if you don’t have to. Wait until you need the roster spot (likely after the CBA gets sorted out and after the Rule 5 draft and the first round of post-CBA free agency) when other teams have fuller 40-man rosters and you can more easily sneak him through waivers.
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Post by fanofredsox on Nov 20, 2021 9:15:45 GMT -5
Are the players who were not protected still eligible to be traded? And if so, is it before the rule 5 draft? Or, Dec 1st?
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2021 9:20:50 GMT -5
Keeping more guys than usual unprotected is a calculated risk that 40-man roster spot jams across the league (due to 26-man rosters and the lost COVID year) mean that better players than usual will be available in the Rule 5 draft across the league and so you can sneak a few guys through that, in a normal year, will be picked. The CBA timing might also play a role. Don’t know when the Rule 5 draft will actually occur and, if it’s a little later in the offseason than usual, might be fewer open 40/26-man spots than usual.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 20, 2021 9:25:07 GMT -5
There is no reason Potts should be on the 40 man. They could’ve waived him and if someone picked him up, whatever. But I doubt it would’ve happened. They have other open 40-man spots so never needed to DFA him now. No reason to DFA him now if you don’t have to. Wait until you need the roster spot (likely after the CBA gets sorted out and after the Rule 5 draft and the first round of post-CBA free agency) when other teams have fuller 40-man rosters and you can more easily sneak him through waivers. I understand that. I was kind of pulling for Feltman, who I think is just about ready to figure it out. Ditto for Ort, even though he's 30. My guess is both of those guys get scooped up. In general, I think a lot of relievers are interchangeable, but these guys will both see MLB time so to me that equals value. Potts seems like a pure org guy who probably won't even get a cup of coffee. Why waste opportunity on that?
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Post by jmei on Nov 20, 2021 9:31:40 GMT -5
They have other open 40-man spots so never needed to DFA him now. No reason to DFA him now if you don’t have to. Wait until you need the roster spot (likely after the CBA gets sorted out and after the Rule 5 draft and the first round of post-CBA free agency) when other teams have fuller 40-man rosters and you can more easily sneak him through waivers. I understand that. I was kind of pulling for Feltman, who I think is just about ready to figure it out. Ditto for Ort, even though he's 30. My guess is both of those guys get scooped up. In general, I think a lot of relievers are interchangeable, but these guys will both see MLB time so to me that equals value. Potts seems like a pure org guy who probably won't even get a cup of coffee. Why waste opportunity on that? The tradeoff is not Feltman or Ort versus Potts. It’s instead versus some future free agent signing or waiver claim. They think they can put the roster spot to better use than protecting a fringy reliever. I tend to agree with them.
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Post by julyanmorley on Nov 20, 2021 10:18:49 GMT -5
I think Feltman was kind of an easy no-protect. He's just not as good as the best waiver wire relievers they could use the roster spot on. He's also still most likely to start the season in the WooSox bullpen.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Nov 20, 2021 11:01:46 GMT -5
Will the red Sox be active in the Rule 5 draft? They'd have to trade up. They got one of the worst spots in the draft as opposed to the past 2 years. Every team with an open 40-man spot gets to pick but most teams don't and with a larger pool of worthy candidates than normal (at least, that's the consensus), there may be someone on Chaim's radar who falls to them at 23. MFYs pick Feltman next at 24.
It is possible to trade up, though. And you can pick as many guys as you have open 40-man roster spots (one per round, plus trades; of course, they'd all have to make the 26-man roster out of Spring Training or they'd lose them). I think the Padres made a bunch of picks a few years back when they were bad. ("Spaghetti, meet wall. Wall, spaghetti.")
With three open spots, you have to wonder if Chaim is targeting more than one guy. With expendable 40-man guys like Potts and Rosario to drop in the event of FA signings, you'd have a decent amount of time between early December and late March to get your coaches' eyes on any Rule 5 picks to look under the hood and figure out who's a keeper.
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Post by soxinsf on Nov 20, 2021 12:33:13 GMT -5
It is clear that CB has given the Sox room to maneuver. Whether it is free agents and waiver claims as jmei suggests or a bunch of Rule 5 spaghetti claims per uwjohnson, there will be new blood.
I would be surprised if a 1B is among those additions unless it is a Schwarber lookalike who can become the DH in a year.
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Post by baseball3 on Nov 20, 2021 12:46:40 GMT -5
They'd have to trade up. They got one of the worst spots in the draft as opposed to the past 2 years. Every team with an open 40-man spot gets to pick but most teams don't and with a larger pool of worthy candidates than normal (at least, that's the consensus), there may be someone on Chaim's radar who falls to them at 23. MFYs pick Feltman next at 24.
It is possible to trade up, though. And you can pick as many guys as you have open 40-man roster spots (one per round, plus trades; of course, they'd all have to make the 26-man roster out of Spring Training or they'd lose them). I think the Padres made a bunch of picks a few years back when they were bad. ("Spaghetti, meet wall. Wall, spaghetti.")
With three open spots, you have to wonder if Chaim is targeting more than one guy. With expendable 40-man guys like Potts and Rosario to drop in the event of FA signings, you'd have a decent amount of time between early December and late March to get your coaches' eyes on any Rule 5 picks to look under the hood and figure out who's a keeper.
The three spots tell me that they're targeting at least 3 players outside the organization to bring in (free agent, trade). It wouldn't surprise me if the Sox didn't use a rule 5 spot this year.
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Post by ramireja on Nov 20, 2021 13:38:06 GMT -5
Link here for anyone curious as to who got protected (and who didn't) according to MLB Pipeline's Top 30 lists for each team.
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