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4/2-4/4 Red Sox vs. Orioles Series Thread
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Post by soxinsf on Apr 3, 2021 19:47:01 GMT -5
Why would we expect Devers to turn into Mike Schmidt? X will be X, which is to say that he is usually OK but has not really been a Gold Glove contender. And for my money, Sox need to find a way to move Devers off 3B. Next year Casas to 1b Dalbec to 3b Devers to DH Wonder what it would take to get Kris Bryant? JD has two years left on his contract. And Casas in 22 seems a bit optimistic. But your scenario is possible, in 23 if not 22. Would hate to lose Devers bat. Hope the Sox figure a way to keep the bat but lose the glove. Makes one wonder what JD or Devers would bring in trade.
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Post by unitspin on Apr 3, 2021 19:58:08 GMT -5
I'll see ya at the finish line. It's going to be a long painful season for the optimists on the board. i hope i make it to the finish line. You have a unique posting style. I welcome all opinions on this website. Is it really about optimism ? We all want the same thing and we have been so fortunate over the last 20 years. Most of this is gravy, for me, given i have been a fan since the mid 70's and suffered immeasurably for decades. It is frustrating to see this start and I am watching Bloom and company with a raised eyebrow, I can assure you of that. However, the journey of 162 games begins with 1 pitch. I will rooting for the boys through thick and thin (and it is real thin right now....LOL) I hear ya.. I believe I posted before I would sacrifice last place finishes for another title any day of the week. This season is just another speed bump to another title. But I am under no assumptions this team will catch lighting in a bottle. I'll be right there watching it all hoping we get an influx of young players in the lineup to make the season bearable.
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Post by 75tillnow on Apr 3, 2021 20:02:40 GMT -5
The consternation about the first two games is totally understandable. I share the angst. Like some on this board, I am an old-timer (and perhaps more relaxed given the trials before 2004), so let me offer a few optimistic observations: 1) Like others, I thought that the pitching was good. Means -- and less so Harvey -- were great, but so were Eovaldi and Houck. Both of the latter were victims of umpire miscalls (the horrible ball 4 call by West, though after Eovaldi had departed, should've been a strike em out/throw em out) and defensive miscues (Kiké, Bogie, Devers). And it was the miscues that decided the games. It happens. Thats baseyball; 2) the bullpen as well, while not spectacular, was tolerable. And Sawamura gives us hope while Barnes, Ottavino and Whitlock have yet to be used; 3) JD looks good; 4) it was cold!
Let's see what happens 70 games in. If the D continues to be this bad and the bats continue to flounder, then we have another chapter to look forward to: how Bloom will sell off what other teams want -- except our kids -- for the future. And that could be very rewarding. More: I'm quite sure if that happens then we will see Duran and Downs in Fenway this summer. In other words: know we are going to be better (if not this year then in the years to come), and expect great things as time moves on. Most important? Baseball is back. And that's fun -- and a relief.
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Post by sibbysisti on Apr 3, 2021 21:45:38 GMT -5
Weather is a big problem in Boston where the batting averages suffer due to being less limber in the cold. there is a big solution to this problem, but no one will accept it....The Fenway Dome. the park is too iconic to solve the problem this way. That you, Ted Sarandis?
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Canseco
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Post by Canseco on Apr 3, 2021 22:31:35 GMT -5
Weather is a big problem in Boston where the batting averages suffer due to being less limber in the cold. there is a big solution to this problem, but no one will accept it....The Fenway Dome. the park is too iconic to solve the problem this way. How about MLB uses common sense and has the 14 or 15 teams in warmer climates (or with domes) open every season with two or three home stands?
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Post by greenmonster on Apr 4, 2021 7:45:22 GMT -5
Did they not use the new balls in spring training? Don’t know. Good question. Yes, good question. Unofficially I am counting 71 HR's across baseball after day3. Does anyone know how that might compare at a similar point in years past?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 4, 2021 9:07:37 GMT -5
5/27, 2B, 1 BB, 10 SO -- O's without RISP. Expected hits: 5.0. xBA: .135
6/22, 2B, 2 BB, 5 SO -- Sox without RISP. Expected hits: 4.3. xBA: .159.
3/7, SF, 1 SO -- O's with RISP. Expected hits: 2.4. xBA: .300.
1/11, SF, 3 SO -- Sox with RISP. Expected hits: 2. xBA: .167.
The O's had 10 hard-hit balls, average EV 99.1, and had all of their excess 0.6 hits on them. 0.5 of the excess was Xander's misplay on Santander's grounder that scored the 3rd run.
The Sox had 8 hard-hit balls, average EV 110.9, and had 1.1 extra hits. They were -0.7 hits on their non-hard contact.
So, the O's had 8.4 expected baserunners, we had 8.3. We had more balls in play (26 to 24) and hit the ball harder (87.0 to 85.0).
The Xander misplay hurt, but the game was essentially lost by the RISP hitting differential, which is pure luck.
There are bunches of games like this every year. If this loss had come mid-season against a .500 club, no one would read anything into it. That it counts as a loss, and against a weak team, is the only negative thing that matters. I'm more concerned about the new deader ball, as reducing the number of homers can be predicted to hurt attendance in the long run. But maybe we're just seeing the weather.
Meanwhile, in the long run, Houck's outing is more of a positive than the loss was a negative.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 4, 2021 9:38:02 GMT -5
5/27, 2B, 1 BB, 10 SO -- O's without RISP. Expected hits: 5.0. xBA: .135
6/22, 2B, 2 BB, 5 SO -- Sox without RISP. Expected hits: 4.3. xBA: .159.
3/7, SF, 1 SO -- O's with RISP. Expected hits: 2.4. xBA: .300.
1/11, SF, 3 SO -- Sox with RISP. Expected hits: 2. xBA: .167.
The O's had 10 hard-hit balls, average EV 99.1, and had all of their excess 0.6 hits on them. 0.5 of the excess was Xander's misplay on Santander's grounder that scored the 3rd run.
The Sox had 8 hard-hit balls, average EV 110.9, and had 1.1 extra hits. They were -0.7 hits on their non-hard contact.
So, the O's had 8.4 expected baserunners, we had 8.3. We had more balls in play (26 to 24) and hit the ball harder (87.0 to 85.0).
The Xander misplay hurt, but the game was essentially lost by the RISP hitting differential, which is pure luck.
There are bunches of games like this every year. If this loss had come mid-season against a .500 club, no one would read anything into it. That it counts as a loss, and against a weak team, is the only negative thing that matters. I'm more concerned about the new deader ball, as reducing the number of homers can be predicted to hurt attendance in the long run. But maybe we're just seeing the weather.
Meanwhile, in the long run, Houck's outing is more of a positive than the loss was a negative.
I agree with most of this, but I think the 0-7 5 K performance of Cordero/Renfroe could be a negative that becomes a real problem. The losses are less of a problem that the fact that the way we lost underscores a point about composition that you raised in the off season: who gets on base? How do we score without homeruns? You cannot make the corpse of Matt Harvey look like, well, Matt Harvey.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 4, 2021 10:03:19 GMT -5
5/27, 2B, 1 BB, 10 SO -- O's without RISP. Expected hits: 5.0. xBA: .135
6/22, 2B, 2 BB, 5 SO -- Sox without RISP. Expected hits: 4.3. xBA: .159.
3/7, SF, 1 SO -- O's with RISP. Expected hits: 2.4. xBA: .300.
1/11, SF, 3 SO -- Sox with RISP. Expected hits: 2. xBA: .167.
The O's had 10 hard-hit balls, average EV 99.1, and had all of their excess 0.6 hits on them. 0.5 of the excess was Xander's misplay on Santander's grounder that scored the 3rd run.
The Sox had 8 hard-hit balls, average EV 110.9, and had 1.1 extra hits. They were -0.7 hits on their non-hard contact.
So, the O's had 8.4 expected baserunners, we had 8.3. We had more balls in play (26 to 24) and hit the ball harder (87.0 to 85.0).
The Xander misplay hurt, but the game was essentially lost by the RISP hitting differential, which is pure luck.
There are bunches of games like this every year. If this loss had come mid-season against a .500 club, no one would read anything into it. That it counts as a loss, and against a weak team, is the only negative thing that matters. I'm more concerned about the new deader ball, as reducing the number of homers can be predicted to hurt attendance in the long run. But maybe we're just seeing the weather.
Meanwhile, in the long run, Houck's outing is more of a positive than the loss was a negative.
I agree with most of this, but I think the 0-7 5 K performance of Cordero/Renfroe could be a negative that becomes a real problem. The losses are less of a problem that the fact that the way we lost underscores a point about composition that you raised in the off season: who gets on base? How do we score without homeruns? You cannot make the corpse of Matt Harvey look like, well, Matt Harvey. The failure of Cordero/Renfro will only hasten the arrival of Duran! If the Spring Training balls are the same as what they are using now, then the HRs will come when the weather warms. The RS may be 10 games behind by then , but oh well. Using the old balls for the spring and new balls for season is even more stupid than mlb league officials can manage, but so is the extra innings man on second.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2021 10:30:26 GMT -5
Obviously the problem has been the offense, but since people have mentioned the umpiring.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 4, 2021 11:13:10 GMT -5
Obviously the problem has been the offense, but since people have mentioned the umpiring. Wow, I’ve never seen these... thanks for posting. Cool way of representing umpiring. I know people favor the AI umps, but the accuracy numbers here are really pretty amazing. It is easy to jump on umps, but in a sport where most of the guys on the field are stars if they succeed 30% of the time, I hand it to the guys who get s**t for succeeding 96% of the time.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2021 11:31:04 GMT -5
I actually read those as the umpires doing pretty poorly. Both had below average accuracy rates. Kulpa was extremely consistent with a terrible zone, which you can see mapped over the zone he was supposed to call.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 4, 2021 11:41:43 GMT -5
I actually read those as the umpires doing pretty poorly. Both had below average accuracy rates. Kulpa was extremely consistent with a terrible zone, which you can see mapped over the zone he was supposed to call. I was referring more to those averages. If 96% consistency is the average, 94% accuracy, that is impressive. How many people do that well at *any* job, much less a high speed, high pressure one? Add: and I get that a 4% error rate can have catastrophic effects on a game... but I still appreciate the elite performance of umps in the same way I appreciate the elite athletes they work with.
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Post by kjkramer on Apr 4, 2021 12:15:22 GMT -5
Starting 0-3 would be devastating and looking like it after 3 batters. Wow
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 4, 2021 12:17:56 GMT -5
I actually read those as the umpires doing pretty poorly. Both had below average accuracy rates. Kulpa was extremely consistent with a terrible zone, which you can see mapped over the zone he was supposed to call. I was referring more to those averages. If 96% consistency is the average, 94% accuracy, that is impressive. How many people do that well at *any* job, much less a high speed, high pressure one? Add: and I get that a 4% error rate can have catastrophic effects on a game... but I still appreciate the elite performance of umps in the same way I appreciate the elite athletes they work with. Alright I can sign up for that. This is the best card I saw, I think, for the first three days
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 4, 2021 12:20:01 GMT -5
I'm a huge Corey Kluber fan so I'm going to be extra critical of Richards.
This team needed a good opening series just to get a more positive narrative around this team and build a little excitement. Instead, they've been inept at hitting and sloppy on defense. The starting pitching looked good, but now Richards is having a rough first inning of the season. Ultimately, this series means very little, but not a great way to start the season when most pegged this as a loser club to start the year after an awful 2020.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 4, 2021 12:27:17 GMT -5
But he does have a great spin rate....
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Apr 4, 2021 12:36:08 GMT -5
Red Sox analytics must be aware of the odds of Baltimore getting the 1st pick if they get swept in the opening series. Thinking 5 steps ahead.
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Post by cba82 on Apr 4, 2021 12:38:19 GMT -5
Baltimore seems to have a very good scouting report for this guy.
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Post by kjkramer on Apr 4, 2021 12:40:45 GMT -5
Wow Not looking like a good year 3 games CAN mean a lot sometimes
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 4, 2021 12:41:50 GMT -5
Ruchards has me wistful for chance to sign Matt Garvey’s corpse.
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Post by soxfaninnj on Apr 4, 2021 12:43:42 GMT -5
Good job getting out of that, offense needs to wake tf up
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 4, 2021 12:53:01 GMT -5
This team is bad.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 4, 2021 12:55:00 GMT -5
There will be lots of booing at these Sox home games.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 4, 2021 12:58:08 GMT -5
Minor setbacks breed major comebacks
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