SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Chaim Bloom and the Red Sox Rebuild
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,989
|
Post by jimoh on Aug 2, 2021 10:07:17 GMT -5
Are we sure JDM is going to opt out? He is set to finish with just over 3 fwar at this pace. Is it really worth him testing the market? Hopefully he does opt out because he's not worth 19M. How is a just-over-3-fwar player not worth $19M? Isn't that player worth more like $25M?
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 2, 2021 10:28:20 GMT -5
One thing about the Sox literally disintegrating is they can now have a good long look at Duran, Dalbec and Franchy. The thing that sucks is pissing away a high upside prospect for Schwarber who will be a useless piece by the time he gets back as they should be playing the younger guys everyday from here until the end of the year. The Red Sox look terrible right now, but....they're not exactly playing out the string. They're likely to make the playoffs if they don't collapse. They might put themselves in a precarious situation as far as winning the division goes by the time Sale, Schwarber, and Arroyo return, but it's not like they'll be 10 game behind the 2nd wild card by then. If things go right they tread enough water to stay within 2 to 3 games of Tampa. If things go wrong they're 5 to 6 games and are neck and neck with Oakland, New York, and Toronto for 1 of 2 wild card spots. The worst case scenario is hardly a reason to raise the white flag. I think they've had a good long look at Dalbec and Franchy. They are what they are. Duran looks overmatched, but they might as well play him until Arroyo comes back (Arroyo would go to 2b and Hernandez would go to CF). From what I've been told here, Aldo's ceiling is lower than his counterparts so if that's so it's not that steep a price to pay to rent Schwarber. My sense is that the Sox will be in the wild card game. The Sox could win the division but honestly I think Tampa is better, somehow someway. The other teams have gotten an instant boost from their acquisitions, whether it's Cruz, Rizzo or Berrios. The Sox will have to wait for theirs and I would expect them to stumble until they get their boost and even then, we don't know if we're seeing vintage Sale or not, but still, while I honestly don't expect them to win the division, I do think they're quite capable of grabbing one of the two wild cards. Whether they advance beyond that one game is another question.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Aug 2, 2021 10:34:53 GMT -5
Hopefully he does opt out because he's not worth 19M. How is a just-over-3-fwar player not worth $19M? Isn't that player worth more like $25M? We will see how he ends the season.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2021 11:09:34 GMT -5
It’s easy to look at what others did at the deadline and wonder about the disparity…but I think we need to look closer at where those teams are in their life cycle. The dodgers finally got one last year, but all that young core is now becoming rapidly expensive, and they are in the kinda, buy and trade what you can so that window doesn’t produce just one, season shortened WS. They are not going to operate at 275 mill for the next 5 years. The astros likewise have one last shot before free agency dismantles their core of old. The white Sox are trying to break through finally. The Yankees and the Phillies are trying to stay relevant with bloated salaries high expectations. The plus in all of this is I don’t see a power house in our win cycle. The dodgers and Yankees have refused to re-boot and mirror each other almost perfectly. This is the last gasp of the astros. If Chaim stays the course there could be a 3 to 4 year period where we are hitting our stride while the others are either rebooting, or rebuilding.How about the Blue Jays, who have a talented young core, got a top shelf free agent in the off-season, and arguably made the biggest move of the trade deadline? Also, the part where I bolded - sure this is possible. But, realistically, do the Sox have the kind of prospects that legitimately set that up? And if so, when would this 3-4 year window open up? I agree, they have some nice potential pieces - Casas, Duran, Houck, Whitlock, maybe Downs and Seabold. One or two of those guys project to be a potential every day or above average MLB players, but none of the pitchers look to be future 1 or 2. In fact, Seabold's never even gone more than 127 innings and that was in 2017 in college. Whitlock's never gone more than 70. A lot of the value is tied up in guys who are still years away, such as Mayer, Groome, Bello, Jimenez and Yorke. And while Mayer looks great for an 18 year-old and Yorke is and Jimenez are doing well in A ball, Bello is not exactly tearing up AA and has a ceiling of a 3. Groome, while possible with a ceiling of a 2 if everything breaks right, is realistically more of a 3/4 at best. So where's the window? And this is a serious question because I keep hearing this, but I really saw this year - with the core of Xander, Devers, JD and Verdugo - as the window.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 2, 2021 11:53:38 GMT -5
It’s easy to look at what others did at the deadline and wonder about the disparity…but I think we need to look closer at where those teams are in their life cycle. The dodgers finally got one last year, but all that young core is now becoming rapidly expensive, and they are in the kinda, buy and trade what you can so that window doesn’t produce just one, season shortened WS. They are not going to operate at 275 mill for the next 5 years. The astros likewise have one last shot before free agency dismantles their core of old. The white Sox are trying to break through finally. The Yankees and the Phillies are trying to stay relevant with bloated salaries high expectations. The plus in all of this is I don’t see a power house in our win cycle. The dodgers and Yankees have refused to re-boot and mirror each other almost perfectly. This is the last gasp of the astros. If Chaim stays the course there could be a 3 to 4 year period where we are hitting our stride while the others are either rebooting, or rebuilding.How about the Blue Jays, who have a talented young core, got a top shelf free agent in the off-season, and arguably made the biggest move of the trade deadline? Also, the part where I bolded - sure this is possible. But, realistically, do the Sox have the kind of prospects that legitimately set that up? And if so, when would this 3-4 year window open up? I agree, they have some nice potential pieces - Casas, Duran, Houck, Whitlock, maybe Downs and Seabold. One or two of those guys project to be a potential every day or above average MLB players, but none of the pitchers look to be future 1 or 2. In fact, Seabold's never even gone more than 127 innings and that was in 2017 in college. Whitlock's never gone more than 70. A lot of the value is tied up in guys who are still years away, such as Mayer, Groome, Bello, Jimenez and Yorke. And while Mayer looks great for an 18 year-old and Yorke is and Jimenez are doing well in A ball, Bello is not exactly tearing up AA and has a ceiling of a 3. Groome, while possible with a ceiling of a 2 if everything breaks right, is realistically more of a 3/4 at best. So where's the window? And this is a serious question because I keep hearing this, but I really saw this year - with the core of Xander, Devers, JD and Verdugo - as the window. One thing I like to point out is that if you want to know what Bloom's plans are you should listen to what he says. And from what he's said it's pretty obvious that he rejects the whole idea of "windows." He wants to build a consistent contender. That's why, as I pointed out on the last page, he's building up prospect depth. The organization has already gone from a bottom-tier farm system to maybe the 10-15 range. It's why he made a major addition to this year's team while only giving up one real prospect.
A lot of people, you might recall, were saying over the winter that this team was hopeless and Bloom only made additions like Richards and Ottavino so that he could sell them at the deadline. I think he was actually just trying to make the team better without sacrificing the future at all (hence he even added prospects with some of his moves).
In 2022 we still have Bogaerts, Devers, and Verdugo (and either JDM or whatever replacement he gets when JD opts out), plus a full season of Sale, plus some interesting your pitching in Houck, Whitlock, and Seabold. Maybe Duran starts to emerge as part of a new core.
In 2023, maybe they add Casas and Downs to that. In 2024, maybe it's Bello? Groome? Juan Soto? Who knows?
In any event, the big puzzle piece that's still missing with regard to Bloom's plans is what he plans to do in big money free agency. If JDM and Sale are part of the current core, then they'll be replaced by other acquisitions when Bloom has the money to do so. We'll see if he's any good at that!
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Aug 2, 2021 12:13:13 GMT -5
How about the Blue Jays, who have a talented young core, got a top shelf free agent in the off-season, and arguably made the biggest move of the trade deadline? Also, the part where I bolded - sure this is possible. But, realistically, do the Sox have the kind of prospects that legitimately set that up? And if so, when would this 3-4 year window open up? I agree, they have some nice potential pieces - Casas, Duran, Houck, Whitlock, maybe Downs and Seabold. One or two of those guys project to be a potential every day or above average MLB players, but none of the pitchers look to be future 1 or 2. In fact, Seabold's never even gone more than 127 innings and that was in 2017 in college. Whitlock's never gone more than 70. A lot of the value is tied up in guys who are still years away, such as Mayer, Groome, Bello, Jimenez and Yorke. And while Mayer looks great for an 18 year-old and Yorke is and Jimenez are doing well in A ball, Bello is not exactly tearing up AA and has a ceiling of a 3. Groome, while possible with a ceiling of a 2 if everything breaks right, is realistically more of a 3/4 at best. So where's the window? And this is a serious question because I keep hearing this, but I really saw this year - with the core of Xander, Devers, JD and Verdugo - as the window. One thing I like to point out is that if you want to know what Bloom's plans are you should listen to what he says. And from what he's said it's pretty obvious that he rejects the whole idea of "windows." He wants to build a consistent contender. That's why, as I pointed out on the last page, he's building up prospect depth. The organization has already gone from a bottom-tier farm system to maybe the 10-15 range. It's why he made a major addition to this year's team while only giving up one real prospect.
A lot of people, you might recall, were saying over the winter that this team was hopeless and Bloom only made additions like Richards and Ottavino so that he could sell them at the deadline. I think he was actually just trying to make the team better without sacrificing the future at all (hence he even added prospects with some of his moves).
In 2022 we still have Bogaerts, Devers, and Verdugo (and either JDM or whatever replacement he gets when JD opts out), plus a full season of Sale, plus some interesting your pitching in Houck, Whitlock, and Seabold. Maybe Duran starts to emerge as part of a new core.
In 2023, maybe they add Casas and Downs to that. In 2024, maybe it's Bello? Groome? Juan Soto? Who knows?
In any event, the big puzzle piece that's still missing with regard to Bloom's plans is what he plans to do in big money free agency. If JDM and Sale are part of the current core, then they'll be replaced by other acquisitions when Bloom has the money to do so. We'll see if he's any good at that!
I reject rejecting windows. It is funny to look at the two Florida teams, run in almost the opposite way. The Rays go for the “consistent contender” model, which we can call the “bridesmaid” model. Good enough to be not quite good enough most years. The Marlins go for the boom-and-bust model. They may suck a lot, but they have the rings. The thing is, the great players are expensive and not easily replaced. Our system does not have a “next wave.” It has a few guys who might be very good players, some more who might be ok. Now, saying, hey, maybe we sign a Soto or something is at once to propose a game-changer but also to say long-term planning is not that meaningful. Who knows who comes or goes in three years? But that, to me, is the thing about the idea of sustainability — it is based on difficult projections. For all the depth Bloom has tried to add, there are very few guys in the system I see as being such good bets that I wouldn’t trade them for a better chance to win now. And I don’t think trading a Potts or Aldo or even Bello or Downs diminishes longterm viability that much because the odds are slim that you aren’t shipping a guy who never reaches full potential anyway.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2021 14:46:41 GMT -5
One thing I like to point out is that if you want to know what Bloom's plans are you should listen to what he says. And from what he's said it's pretty obvious that he rejects the whole idea of "windows." He wants to build a consistent contender. That's why, as I pointed out on the last page, he's building up prospect depth. The organization has already gone from a bottom-tier farm system to maybe the 10-15 range. It's why he made a major addition to this year's team while only giving up one real prospect. A lot of people, you might recall, were saying over the winter that this team was hopeless and Bloom only made additions like Richards and Ottavino so that he could sell them at the deadline. I think he was actually just trying to make the team better without sacrificing the future at all (hence he even added prospects with some of his moves). In 2022 we still have Bogaerts, Devers, and Verdugo (and either JDM or whatever replacement he gets when JD opts out), plus a full season of Sale, plus some interesting your pitching in Houck, Whitlock, and Seabold. Maybe Duran starts to emerge as part of a new core. In 2023, maybe they add Casas and Downs to that. In 2024, maybe it's Bello? Groome? Juan Soto? Who knows? In any event, the big puzzle piece that's still missing with regard to Bloom's plans is what he plans to do in big money free agency. If JDM and Sale are part of the current core, then they'll be replaced by other acquisitions when Bloom has the money to do so. We'll see if he's any good at that!
I reject rejecting windows. It is funny to look at the two Florida teams, run in almost the opposite way. The Rays go for the “consistent contender” model, which we can call the “bridesmaid” model. Good enough to be not quite good enough most years. The Marlins go for the boom-and-bust model. They may suck a lot, but they have the rings. The thing is, the great players are expensive and not easily replaced. Our system does not have a “next wave.” It has a few guys who might be very good players, some more who might be ok. Now, saying, hey, maybe we sign a Soto or something is at once to propose a game-changer but also to say long-term planning is not that meaningful. Who knows who comes or goes in three years? But that, to me, is the thing about the idea of sustainability — it is based on difficult projections. For all the depth Bloom has tried to add, there are very few guys in the system I see as being such good bets that I wouldn’t trade them for a better chance to win now. And I don’t think trading a Potts or Aldo or even Bello or Downs diminishes longterm viability that much because the odds are slim that you aren’t shipping a guy who never reaches full potential anyway. Right there with you. Especially with money coming off the books in the next two years, everyone not named Casas and Mayer are potentially replaceable in one way or another. That doesn't mean you trade them all at the deadline for a rental or even guys like Gallo or Berios who have a bit of control. But hoarding all the prospects at the expense of MLB performance? I think that affected Cherinton's exit just a few years after a World Series. Some folks say Dombrowski was fired for trading them all away (he didn't trade them all away, btw - kept a very nice core and didn't trade anyone whose become a star or even an average MLB player). I honestly think he was fired because he decided to spend big money on players without consulting or getting sign-offs from ownership (Sale, Eovaldi, Kelly - less so Pierce). Look, I can be as guilty of wanting to keep the one or three guys I really favor as anyone else (Casas, Duran, Jimenez and Groome from the current minor league crop). But there is a lot to be said for trading from near top prospects - or even the top - depending on the return. Hell, Tampa, among others, gets lots of good players this way for both majors and minors. Also, for a rich club, it's still a market advantage to go get players via free agency to plug holes and buy some stars in positions of need. Just do your homework and look at the medicals. Finally, based on Henry and Werner's moves in the past, if this team isn't a pennant winner within the next 2-4 years, I think Bloom is gone. He started in 2019 (and I think he gets a mulligan for 2020) but the clock is ticking and that's that's part of his job description, whether explicitly or implicitly, especially starting next year when park capacity ticket sales will be season-long. I don't think after winning the pennant in 2018 Ownership was looking for a complete rebuild, just a new philosophy. They probably didn't see this team as particularly broken and not in need of a 4-year Astros/Cubs complete TankARama job. They had WS in 2018, 84 wins in 2019 (2020 was a festival of injuries, opt outs, guys not being comfortable in the Covid world ridiculousness) and there was talent on the farm. Likely, they see it as we just need some adjustments while bad contracts/tax space are eliminated in the next 2 years. After that I believe they fully expect this team to be a Dodgers-type team that wins divisions, drafts well (and maybe better) with low number picks, continues to develop position players and develops better pitching - the latter something Boston has been awful at. But these guys want to win much sooner than later. It's been their DNA since 2003.
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 2, 2021 15:24:58 GMT -5
One thing I like to point out is that if you want to know what Bloom's plans are you should listen to what he says. And from what he's said it's pretty obvious that he rejects the whole idea of "windows." He wants to build a consistent contender. That's why, as I pointed out on the last page, he's building up prospect depth. The organization has already gone from a bottom-tier farm system to maybe the 10-15 range. It's why he made a major addition to this year's team while only giving up one real prospect. A lot of people, you might recall, were saying over the winter that this team was hopeless and Bloom only made additions like Richards and Ottavino so that he could sell them at the deadline. I think he was actually just trying to make the team better without sacrificing the future at all (hence he even added prospects with some of his moves). In 2022 we still have Bogaerts, Devers, and Verdugo (and either JDM or whatever replacement he gets when JD opts out), plus a full season of Sale, plus some interesting your pitching in Houck, Whitlock, and Seabold. Maybe Duran starts to emerge as part of a new core. In 2023, maybe they add Casas and Downs to that. In 2024, maybe it's Bello? Groome? Juan Soto? Who knows? In any event, the big puzzle piece that's still missing with regard to Bloom's plans is what he plans to do in big money free agency. If JDM and Sale are part of the current core, then they'll be replaced by other acquisitions when Bloom has the money to do so. We'll see if he's any good at that!
I reject rejecting windows. It is funny to look at the two Florida teams, run in almost the opposite way. The Rays go for the “consistent contender” model, which we can call the “bridesmaid” model. Good enough to be not quite good enough most years. The Marlins go for the boom-and-bust model. They may suck a lot, but they have the rings. The thing is, the great players are expensive and not easily replaced. Our system does not have a “next wave.” It has a few guys who might be very good players, some more who might be ok. Now, saying, hey, maybe we sign a Soto or something is at once to propose a game-changer but also to say long-term planning is not that meaningful. Who knows who comes or goes in three years? But that, to me, is the thing about the idea of sustainability — it is based on difficult projections. For all the depth Bloom has tried to add, there are very few guys in the system I see as being such good bets that I wouldn’t trade them for a better chance to win now. And I don’t think trading a Potts or Aldo or even Bello or Downs diminishes longterm viability that much because the odds are slim that you aren’t shipping a guy who never reaches full potential anyway. I'd hope the Sox wouldn't use the Marlins' model. Yeah, they won 2 championships in 7 seasons, but they shot their wad. Except for last year's .500 team that was the 10th wild card or whatever the hell it was, they've been irrelevant since 2004. That's a long time to suck. I get your boom/bust thing and the game is designed for teams who do that rather than play .500 ball all the time. And I do worry about the concept that they have a strong every year but don't do what it takes to try to become the favorites to win so that they fall just short every year. But I do subscribe to the theory that if you keep knocking on the door you get let in sooner or later. I think the Sox winning 4 times in 15 years makes a lot of people think that it's easy to win the World Series, as if the prior 85 years have been forgotten. And multiple times during those years had they gotten a key out or had gotten a key hit, they might never have had that World Series drought. There's such a thin line between winning and losing in a post-season tournament on the one hand. On the other, if you don't build your team well enough you get something like the Sox had in the 1988 - 1999 time period when they'd get squashed in the playoffs by a superior A's/Indians/Yankees team. And when the Sox did win in 2007, 2013, and 2018 no team had a better regular season record than them. So I do get the thought of being willing to lower the odds of a future season for the current season. I guess it just depends upon what you have. I mean, Larry Andersen helps you win a tight division race to make the playoffs but he sure as hell is not going to be a difference maker that's going to make the Sox superior to Eckersley's Oakland A's and sure as hell not worth surrendering that Bagwell kid. But lets also not pretend that losing Jalen Beeks, Santiago Espinal, and Ty Buttrey were horrendous losses that caused 2019. What caused 2019 to be 2019 was that the pitching collapsed, lead by the injury plagued seasons of Sale and Eovaldi. Plus the clutch hits that gave the Sox all those ridiculous wins when they weren't kicking the competition's butt in 2018 weren't there in 2019, nor were those key outs that the Sox pitching staff got in 2018. Then add in financial inflexibility that extensions created, and bye-bye Dombrowski less than 1 year removed from a Championship. He spent the money to run back virtually the same team and had no creative solutions to find a way to get similar production for less $ and that's why he's gone and Bloom is here. I was extremely disappointed that the Sox didn't improve their pitching, particularly the bullpen given how hard it would have been to use a thinner farm system to get a top notch starting pitcher - and for all we know, they might have acquired Scherzer - maybe he didn't want to come to Boston or maybe the Sox made it clear they only wanted to rent him - not invest $100 million in a pitcher who'll be 40 at the end of the contract. I wish he did trade a lesser prospect for relief help. Obviously not Kimbrel level given how foolish the White Sox were to give up Madrigal. I wouldn't mind them parting with a Jalen Beeks - would Kutter Crawford or Winckowski or some other projected swing guy compare. I don't know if that was an option or not. I do think if the Sox went all in, they might have destroyed their future and found out they still have 2 or 3 holes in the rotation. This team is an overachiever. I'm hoping that Bloom builds a team that can win 95 games consistently without having to overachieve, sort of what Theo did about 15 years ago. There has to be a happy medium between going all in and hoarding all prospects. It come down to sorting out which prospects are going to be core guys and which ones are expendable. I would say that was something Dombrowski was pretty good at. If Bloom is too, they'll be in good shape. I truly feel that the organization is a lot thinner than what Bloom wants it to be. He's probably not going to be aggressive until he feels it's built up enough. That probably won't be for another few years. And he will get that chance. Ownership doesn't want anymore last place finishes where the stands are empty in August and fans don't give a crap and the only thing people talk about is Patriots football.
|
|
|
Post by azblue on Aug 2, 2021 15:43:45 GMT -5
What was the cost of adding starting pitchers?
We do not know. Is it reasonable to question a decision if you do not know what return was demanded by the team offering a starter?
You can fairly express disappointment that a trade could not be negotiated, but the reasonableness of Boston's decision to reject all trade proposals cannot be attacked logially unless you have much more detailed information about Bloom's options.
|
|
|
Post by lostinnewjersey on Aug 2, 2021 16:15:59 GMT -5
Bloom is right to reject the "windows" concept. This team's model should not be the Astros or even the Rays, who have to be frugal, but the Dodgers, who keep winning their division by maintaining a superb farm system and spending big money as needed. They've also made an art of grabbing good players like Muncy, Taylor, and Turner from teams that didn't appreciate their value. So far it looks like Bloom is following that playbook, and it's a good playbook.
|
|
|
Post by manfred on Aug 2, 2021 16:20:48 GMT -5
Bloom is right to reject the "windows" concept. This team's model should not be the Astros or even the Rays, who have to be frugal, but the Dodgers, who keep winning their division by maintaining a superb farm system and spending big money as needed. They've also made an art of grabbing good players like Muncy, Taylor, and Turner from teams that didn't appreciate their value. So far it looks like Bloom is following that playbook, and it's a good playbook. Yet the Dodgers are in a “window” moment now! Think of trading for Betts, for Scherzer, picking up Pujols. They happened to have an especially deep system, but they’ve traded a lot of prospects. They’ll still pay for this in a few years. But if they stay healthy (which we did not in 2019…. which was the problem, not a plundered single-A team!), they could repeat and likely be content to pay a price.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2021 16:29:35 GMT -5
Bloom is right to reject the "windows" concept. This team's model should not be the Astros or even the Rays, who have to be frugal, but the Dodgers, who keep winning their division by maintaining a superb farm system and spending big money as needed. They've also made an art of grabbing good players like Muncy, Taylor, and Turner from teams that didn't appreciate their value. So far it looks like Bloom is following that playbook, and it's a good playbook.I think all of us would've said the same at this time in 2013 about Cherington.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2021 17:00:07 GMT -5
What was the cost of adding starting pitchers? We do not know. Is it reasonable to question a decision if you do not know what return was demanded by the team offering a starter? You can fairly express disappointment that a trade could not be negotiated, but the reasonableness of Boston's decision to reject all trade proposals cannot be attacked logially unless you have much more detailed information about Bloom's options. We do know if you look at the valuation/rankings of the players who went for the starters. Things got complicated with Scherzer when Turner was added in. Not that the Sox couldn't use Turner (it would've freed up Downs as a piece somewhere) but he wasn't something they needed. Berios cost Austin Martin - BA #20 prospect and Simeon Richardson, who was Tornoto's #4 prospect and projects as a #2/3 starter by BA. By contrast, Casas is BA's #22 prospect and Duran is BA's #24 prospect. Groome was projected by BA as a 2/3 but that projection was on hold pending his recovery from TJ surgery. The Sox #4 prospect, Mata, is not a BA Top 100 prospect, but projected to be a 3/4 starter by BA, but he is on the IL with TJ surgery.
|
|
|
Post by patford on Aug 2, 2021 17:06:15 GMT -5
I never understood the helium for Duran. Yes the power was impressive but his BA and swing and miss went in a really bad direction and his play in CF was so bad him being passable was seen as huge. At this point he looks like a repeat of Chavis.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 2, 2021 17:14:56 GMT -5
I never understood the helium for Duran. Yes the power was impressive but his BA and swing and miss went in a really bad direction and his play in CF was so bad him being passable was seen as huge. At this point he looks like a repeat of Chavis. Then they should've traded him while he's at max value. And I say that as a Duran fan. He probably gets the benefit of the doubt/dream-on projection into the winter because he's only seeing a few at bats and it's his first taste of MLB, so if they see the same they should move him this winter or should've offered him for a controllable player in a position of need at the deadline.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 2, 2021 17:18:31 GMT -5
What was the cost of adding starting pitchers? We do not know. Is it reasonable to question a decision if you do not know what return was demanded by the team offering a starter? You can fairly express disappointment that a trade could not be negotiated, but the reasonableness of Boston's decision to reject all trade proposals cannot be attacked logially unless you have much more detailed information about Bloom's options. We do know if you look at the valuation/rankings of the players who went for the starters. Things got complicated with Scherzer when Turner was added in. Not that the Sox couldn't use Turner (it would've freed up Downs as a piece somewhere) but he wasn't something they needed. Berios cost Austin Martin - BA #20 prospect and Simeon Richardson, who was Tornoto's #4 prospect and projects as a #2/3 starter by BA. By contrast, Duran is BA's #25 prospects and Groome projected as a 2/3 but that projection was on hold pending his recovery from TJ surgery. The Sox #4 prospect, Mata, is projected to be a 3/4 starter by BA, but he is on the IL with TJ surgery. Fangraphs ranks Woods Richardson and Martin as the #48 and #59 prospects in MLB. For the Red Sox to compete with that they'd have to offer at least two of their big 4 (Casas/Mayer/Duran/Downs), or else one of those guys + multiple other prospects. This would be for 1.5 years of Berrios. Fine to argue they should have gone all out, but Bloom was certainly never going to go there.
I think a more realistic possibility would have been to win the bidding for Kyle Gibson, which might have required maybe something like Downs + Mata? Maybe a little less? I wouldn't have done it myself, but it wouldn't have completely decimated the top of the system at least.
I don't think any other starters that were on the market would even have improved the Sox rotation. (Or, well, Scherzer, obviously, but he vetoed a trade to "an AL East team," right? I think he was dead-set on going to California.)
|
|
|
Post by lostinnewjersey on Aug 2, 2021 18:07:57 GMT -5
Bloom is right to reject the "windows" concept. This team's model should not be the Astros or even the Rays, who have to be frugal, but the Dodgers, who keep winning their division by maintaining a superb farm system and spending big money as needed. They've also made an art of grabbing good players like Muncy, Taylor, and Turner from teams that didn't appreciate their value. So far it looks like Bloom is following that playbook, and it's a good playbook. Yet the Dodgers are in a “window” moment now! Think of trading for Betts, for Scherzer, picking up Pujols. They happened to have an especially deep system, but they’ve traded a lot of prospects. They’ll still pay for this in a few years. But if they stay healthy (which we did not in 2019…. which was the problem, not a plundered single-A team!), they could repeat and likely be content to pay a price. You're right, but it's a very big window and it's been open a long time.
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Aug 2, 2021 18:17:14 GMT -5
Yet the Dodgers are in a “window” moment now! Think of trading for Betts, for Scherzer, picking up Pujols. They happened to have an especially deep system, but they’ve traded a lot of prospects. They’ll still pay for this in a few years. But if they stay healthy (which we did not in 2019…. which was the problem, not a plundered single-A team!), they could repeat and likely be content to pay a price. You're right, but it's a very big window and it's been open a long time. As an LA native that "window" was open for a long time because, frankly the NL west was a cake walk for them up until the last two years... and I mean it was worse than the AL central... www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/NL_West_Division
|
|
|
Post by ghostofrussgibson on Aug 2, 2021 18:54:16 GMT -5
A strong farm system is key. Augment that with the occasional free agent. Young players these days seem to fit in better than they did 40 years ago. Maybe it's due to all the youth baseball they play. I just don't see how most of these high-dollar free agent signings pan out, especially after 2 - 3 years. Grow your own... pay them. And by growing your own, you control their salaries to a large extent, certainly longer than would occur in the NFL. And heck, the Patriots managed quite well as a 'consistent' power team. Payroll and 'going for it' doesn't necessarily correlate to winning in baseball. Just ask the Yankees. Team games are more than a single player, and that's why I've typically argued against trading the future for a rental, unless that 'rental' comes with another year or two of control. Just my two cents.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,195
|
Post by cdj on Aug 2, 2021 19:20:26 GMT -5
If you’re going to give to top prospects for a pitcher I want it to be an ace. Berrios is not that. He’s very good but not great. Don’t think you can justify giving up all that control of a Duran or Casas for 1.5 years of him
Not if you want to build a sustainable winner that is. I don’t know about y’all but while I’ve enjoyed the WS wins over the last couple decades I would love for them to take the next step and eliminate the roller coaster ride from year to year lol
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,195
|
Post by cdj on Aug 2, 2021 19:50:11 GMT -5
A lot of people wanted them to look at Dahl, myself included. They chose correctly
|
|
|
Post by blizzards39 on Aug 2, 2021 20:58:54 GMT -5
If you’re going to give to top prospects for a pitcher I want it to be an ace. Berrios is not that. He’s very good but not great. Don’t think you can justify giving up all that control of a Duran or Casas for 1.5 years of him Not if you want to build a sustainable winner that is. I don’t know about y’all but while I’ve enjoyed the WS wins over the last couple decades I would love for them to take the next step and eliminate the roller coaster ride from year to year lol I actually can’t believe the jays gave up both those players. For only Berrios. I guess you have to factor in the possibility of a long term deal or compensation but that is a lot for Berrios
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 2, 2021 23:26:14 GMT -5
One thing I like to point out is that if you want to know what Bloom's plans are you should listen to what he says. And from what he's said it's pretty obvious that he rejects the whole idea of "windows." He wants to build a consistent contender. That's why, as I pointed out on the last page, he's building up prospect depth. The organization has already gone from a bottom-tier farm system to maybe the 10-15 range. It's why he made a major addition to this year's team while only giving up one real prospect.
A lot of people, you might recall, were saying over the winter that this team was hopeless and Bloom only made additions like Richards and Ottavino so that he could sell them at the deadline. I think he was actually just trying to make the team better without sacrificing the future at all (hence he even added prospects with some of his moves).
In 2022 we still have Bogaerts, Devers, and Verdugo (and either JDM or whatever replacement he gets when JD opts out), plus a full season of Sale, plus some interesting your pitching in Houck, Whitlock, and Seabold. Maybe Duran starts to emerge as part of a new core.
In 2023, maybe they add Casas and Downs to that. In 2024, maybe it's Bello? Groome? Juan Soto? Who knows?
In any event, the big puzzle piece that's still missing with regard to Bloom's plans is what he plans to do in big money free agency. If JDM and Sale are part of the current core, then they'll be replaced by other acquisitions when Bloom has the money to do so. We'll see if he's any good at that!
I reject rejecting windows. It is funny to look at the two Florida teams, run in almost the opposite way. The Rays go for the “consistent contender” model, which we can call the “bridesmaid” model. Good enough to be not quite good enough most years. The Marlins go for the boom-and-bust model. They may suck a lot, but they have the rings. The thing is, the great players are expensive and not easily replaced. Our system does not have a “next wave.” It has a few guys who might be very good players, some more who might be ok. Now, saying, hey, maybe we sign a Soto or something is at once to propose a game-changer but also to say long-term planning is not that meaningful. Who knows who comes or goes in three years? But that, to me, is the thing about the idea of sustainability — it is based on difficult projections. For all the depth Bloom has tried to add, there are very few guys in the system I see as being such good bets that I wouldn’t trade them for a better chance to win now. And I don’t think trading a Potts or Aldo or even Bello or Downs diminishes longterm viability that much because the odds are slim that you aren’t shipping a guy who never reaches full potential anyway. There are two issues here, right? 1) Philosophically, should a team go for a "windows" strategy of boom-and-bust cycles, in which they maximize their chances for a few years at a time at the cost of being terrible for a few years after that? 2) Is this a good time to launch the "boom" part of that cycle?
On the first question: I almost feel like "we should follow the Marlins' lead" is a self-refuting argument. But to try to take it seriously: the Marlins won the World Series in 1997, when they went 92-70, and 2003, when they went 91-71. (They have not won more than 87 games in any season since.) Does that sound like they built a juggernaut? Or does it sound like they sneaked into the playoffs and then got lucky?
To quote myself from another thread: "All I would ask of people who see this obvious difference between playoff-caliber teams on the one hand, and teams that have a chance to win the world series on the other, is to explain the 2019 Nationals (93 wins), the 2015 Royals (95 wins), the 2014 Giants (88 wins), the 2012 Giants (94 wins), the 2011 Cardinals (90 wins), the 2010 Giants (92 wins), the 2008 Phillies (92 wins), the 2006 Cardinals (83 wins)..."
Add the Marlins to this list. They illustrate exactly the opposite of what you're saying: a team should just try to be good enough to make the playoffs and then anything can happen. In other words, be a consistent contender, rather than trying to be the 2018-2019 Yankees, who won a combined 203 games but never even made it to the World Series.
As for the point about trading off prospects: it will absolutely always be the case that most prospects don't pan out. Trading a Potts or an Aldo will therefore probably work out to the team's advantage. But this is exactly Bloom's logic! Precisely because most prospects don't pan out, you want to hold as many as possible (while being reasonable about the team's present needs, and trading for a Schwarber when you can for a reasonable price, etc.). The more you have, the better the odds that you strike gold with some of them.
On the second question: Okay, let's say you want to adopt the boom-and-bust model. Is this Red Sox team really the squad to do it with? A team with a starting rotation of spare parts and cast-offs, that has overperformed thanks to the good luck (?) of health and clutch hitting? Prior to this season a large percentage of people here thought that they had no chance to win a championship (as you may recall...). Does it turn out that they're such a powerhouse that it makes sense to push all the chips in?
I'm fine pushing some chips in. I think Bloom pushed in basically the right amount of chips (maybe one more chip for a decent reliever wouldn't have hurt). But I would have HATED it if he significantly compromised their chances in 2023-202X just to go for it with a team that, while really fun and talented, has a few rather glaring holes.
Extend Devers and Verdugo, keep Bogaerts around if you can, be smart in free agency, win out on a few of our hoarded lottery ticket prospects, and there's your consistent contender for the rest of the decade. That sounds a lot more fun to me than going all in in 2021 and then staring in the face of a half-decade of mediocrity after that.
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Aug 3, 2021 3:42:47 GMT -5
I know we get excited when we’re competing and want to forget completely about the future but remember we selected 4th in the draft for a reason. We are overachieving and have a ton of holes. We did the right thing trading for Schwarber in hopes to keep him around. He’s an All Star and top 3 hitters on our team. That being said we need to keep building so we’re so deep we can trade a few top 25 guys and not feel like we’re “all in”. In Bloom I trust.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,403
|
Post by radiohix on Aug 3, 2021 6:22:58 GMT -5
Are we sure JDM is going to opt out? He is set to finish with just over 3 fwar at this pace. Is it really worth him testing the market? Martinez after his nuclear month of April: .264/.326/.459 that's a very meh .785 OPS If he opts out, I'm not sure Chaim will consider re-signing him a top priority.
|
|
|