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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 4, 2021 9:58:55 GMT -5
Who is the unexpected leader in xwOBA allowed by relievers with 50+ PA / BFP? And by a wide margin? As in, the difference between him and the runner-up is the same as that between #2 and #8? As in, he's also the leader for minimum 40, and 30 ... in fact, 26. He's second for guys with 20 BFP. Garret Richards: .150 / .215 / .207 = .195 xwOBA (52 PA) .167 / .231 /.229 = .210 wOBA Now, it is true that he's only 7th in wOBA (out of 405 qualifiers), and if you use my finding that 18% of xw0BA - wOBA is predictive, he has only a narrow edge for #1. Top 15 guys: Name PA Adj Richards, Garr. 52 .198 López, Reynaldo 68 .202 Warren, Austin 64 .214 Hader, Josh 185 .217 Treinen, Blake 230 .223 Holloway, Jord. 93 .224 Nelson, Jimmy 108 .225 Clase, Emmanuel 234 .226 Kimbrel, Craig 189 .227 Steele, Justin 54 .229 Hendriks, Liam 225 .230 Loáisiga, Jona. 268 .233 Iglesias, Rais. 228 .234 Kittredge, And. 207 .234 Pressly, Ryan 207 .239 Obviously you can't compare the 6 guys with <= 92 BFP with the 9 guys with 185+.
I'll take a look at the other five guys later today ... maybe!
The White Sox' Lopez is doing what Richards is, sort of -- but he had no previous experience in relief, was optioned in ST and then missed a little time with eye surgery. Destroyed in his first 7 starts at Charlotte (1.029 OPS, 9.13 ERA), then had 2 merely bad ones, had a 6 3 1 1 1 8 game and was immediately recalled to pitch mostly out of the pen. He's made 4 starts, 56 PA with a .284 allowed.
Austin Warren, age 25, was not even on the Angels' depth chart after 2019, and on July 1 was sporting a 1.008 OPS and 8.22 ERA at Salt Lake. He then mysteriously (none of the coverage of his callup and success appears to be aware of this history) put up a .506, 2.70 in his next 6 outings, finishing with 5 perfect innings with 7 K. He was recalled on 7/29 and you've seen what he's done since. He was a 6th round college senior draftee and is listed at 6'0" but is apparently 5'9". Controls a 94 mph FB (both types) and has an average slider.
Marlins' rookie Jordan Holloway has faced 64 hitters in 4 starts and has allowed .414. He was their #21 prospect before COVID with a likely destination in the pen. His last outing was a start, so they seem to be stubborn about him.
Former Brewers' mid-rotation starter Jimmy Nelson has worked his way into a 7th/8th inning role for the Dodgers; PT limited by 2 IL stints totaling a month.
Cubs rookie LHP Justin Steele was their #25 prospect. After the above he missed a month, was transitioned back to the rotation during rehab, and has made 4 starts since early August with a below-average .338.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Sept 4, 2021 11:56:42 GMT -5
Garrett Richards might be playing his way into that 2022 option. If you’re going to dream dream big. Garrett is the next great failed starter turned closer. He will dominate the 9th inning for the next 7 years.!!!! maybe.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 4, 2021 15:51:44 GMT -5
I ran a pair of numbers this morning for all 10 relievers (no real Brasier data yet): tOBA = 82% xwOBA and 18% wOBA. WPA/60: Win Probabilty Added, adjusted for leverage, per 60 games. And I tried to find any real chunks of seasons. I think this is good news about Matt Barnes:
Name Dates G tOBA W/60 Barnes to 6/5 25 .172 2.99 Barnes 6/6 to 6/24 6 .351 -8.55 Barnes 6/25 to 8/4 13 .191 2.25 Barnes 8/7 on 10 .460 -8.52 This happened before when he had to give up the sticky. That had to be just lost confidence, right? He figured it out and was still outrageously good by cortrected expected results (Richards leads MLB currently at .198 tOBA), maybe a little less clutch. This time it was fatigue that created poor performance that led to the lack of confidence, and which seems to have had a bigger impact than the sticky loss.
Taking time off to rest and clear his head may be a good thing. We should be optimistic about his ability to really help the last 2 1/2 weeks or so, and in the post.
Next up: Perez and Davis, the Unlucky Lefties.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 4, 2021 16:08:37 GMT -5
I just realized I could present all the data! Roll your own insights until I get back to y'all.
Name Dates G tOBA W/60 Barnes to 6/5 25 .172 2.99 Barnes 6/25 to 8/4 13 .191 2.25 Richards as reliever 7 .198 7.10 Taylor 4/30 to 7/5 26 .209 2.82 Whitlock all 40 .261 3.37 Hernandez 4/29 to 6/30 24 .262 0.16 Ottavino from 4/17 53 .265 2.47 Sawamura from 6/28 21 .276 1.33 Davis since acquired 12 .277 -1.68 Perez as reliever 9 .284 -1.98 Sawamura 5/23 to 6/26 14 .312 0.90 Hernandez 7/3 on 9 .350 -0.90 Barnes 6/6 to 6/24 6 .351 -8.55 Taylor from 7/10 19 .356 -1.20 Robles since acquired 13 .364 -1.36 Sawamura to 5/20 15 .377 -1.42 Ottavino to 4/15 5 .413 -5.25 Hernandez to 4/22 8 .417 -0.30 Taylor to 4/24 9 .450 -2.67 Barnes 8/7 on 10 .460 -8.52
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 4, 2021 16:19:31 GMT -5
Garrett Richards might be playing his way into that 2022 option. If you’re going to dream dream big. Garrett is the next great failed starter turned closer. He will dominate the 9th inning for the next 7 years.!!!! maybe. Maybe being the operative word. If working in short stints keeps him focused and powerful, Richards has the stuff to be very good in that role. It is way too soon to conclude anything except that he is earning more looks in late inning, high leverage situations.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2021 16:22:16 GMT -5
Garrett Richards might be playing his way into that 2022 option. If you’re going to dream dream big. Garrett is the next great failed starter turned closer. He will dominate the 9th inning for the next 7 years.!!!! maybe. Maybe being the operative word. If working in short stints keeps him focused and powerful, Richards has the stuff to be very good in that role. It is way too soon to conclude anything except that he is earning more looks in late inning, high leverage situations. Even if he does well in the last weeks, why give him $10 million next year? That is way too much for a guy with his issues to cone back as a reliever. If they *don’t* pick up the option and try to sign him for less (maybe incentive-laden)…. maybe. Still pass if it’s me, but I can see that.
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Post by soxinsf on Sept 4, 2021 16:28:16 GMT -5
Maybe being the operative word. If working in short stints keeps him focused and powerful, Richards has the stuff to be very good in that role. It is way too soon to conclude anything except that he is earning more looks in late inning, high leverage situations. Even if he does well in the last weeks, why give him $10 million next year? That is way too much for a guy with his issues to cone back as a reliever. If they *don’t* pick up the option and try to sign him for less (maybe incentive-laden)…. maybe. Still pass if it’s me, but I can see that. If the Sox see him as a great late inning guy, his option price is not so outrageous. Then maybe a new, incentive laden contract could work. But if Richards wants to be a starter, then it is Goodbye, Boston. He cannot be a starter here.
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Post by bcsox on Sept 4, 2021 21:11:41 GMT -5
I don’t see any way they pay Richards 10 mill to pitch out of the bullpen next year no matter how solid he pitches down the stretch. The Tampa model was find guys with 95-100 in the tank. Don’t worry about the rest of it, teach him a slider, and usually these guys are in short money contracts.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 18, 2021 8:01:31 GMT -5
I just realized I could present all the data! Roll your own insights until I get back to y'all.
Name Dates G tOBA W/60 Barnes to 6/5 25 .172 2.99 Barnes 6/25 to 8/4 13 .191 2.25 Richards as reliever 7 .198 7.10 Taylor 4/30 to 7/5 26 .209 2.82 Whitlock all 40 .261 3.37 Hernandez 4/29 to 6/30 24 .262 0.16 Ottavino from 4/17 53 .265 2.47 Sawamura from 6/28 21 .276 1.33 Davis since acquired 12 .277 -1.68 Perez as reliever 9 .284 -1.98 Sawamura 5/23 to 6/26 14 .312 0.90 Hernandez 7/3 on 9 .350 -0.90 Barnes 6/6 to 6/24 6 .351 -8.55 Taylor from 7/10 19 .356 -1.20 Robles since acquired 13 .364 -1.36 Sawamura to 5/20 15 .377 -1.42 Ottavino to 4/15 5 .413 -5.25 Hernandez to 4/22 8 .417 -0.30 Taylor to 4/24 9 .450 -2.67 Barnes 8/7 on 10 .460 -8.52
Some updates of tOBA:
Richards .198 as reliever > .250, thanks to .401 in last 3 outings (but .306 in latest)
Sawamaura .276 in 21 G before COVID > .200 in 2 G since return Davis .277 since acquired > .268 Perez as reliever .284 > .257
Dawinzon .350 in 9 G before COVID > .223 since return Taylor .346 in 19 G before COVID > .308 since return
Robles .360 since acquired > .338, thanks to .218 in last 7 G Barnes .460 in 10 G before COVID > .255 last night
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Sept 20, 2021 13:48:30 GMT -5
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 20, 2021 14:13:50 GMT -5
I think a naive statistical reading of Richards' record will say that it's a pretty good idea to pick up his option. His situation is unusual as we all know, and the Red Sox front office will be earning their pay check on this decision.
My guess right now is that they do the extremely popular thing and pick up his option and pencil him in for the rotation
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 20, 2021 14:49:06 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Sept 20, 2021 14:53:47 GMT -5
I think a naive statistical reading of Richards' record will say that it's a pretty good idea to pick up his option. His situation is unusual as we all know, and the Red Sox front office will be earning their pay check on this decision. My guess right now is that they do the extremely popular thing and pick up his option and pencil him in for the rotation It's hard for me to believe that they can't come up with a better use for $10 million.
On the other hand, I think they might be able to get him back for like $6 million after declining the option, and that I could see them doing.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 20, 2021 14:56:58 GMT -5
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Post by foreverred9 on Sept 20, 2021 15:04:37 GMT -5
I think a naive statistical reading of Richards' record will say that it's a pretty good idea to pick up his option. His situation is unusual as we all know, and the Red Sox front office will be earning their pay check on this decision. My guess right now is that they do the extremely popular thing and pick up his option and pencil him in for the rotation It's hard for me to believe that they can't come up with a better use for $10 million. On the other hand, I think they might be able to get him back for like $6 million after declining the option, and that I could see them doing.
I'm leaning the same way, but I think the decision will be decided for them in the games to come. I don't think they'd bring him back as a starter anymore, that ship feels like it's sailing away. But if he's a 1-2 WAR pitcher in the bullpen, don't you think they need to pick up the option? If he's lights out this week and in the playoffs that could be enough to give confidence that he could be that 1-2 WAR reliever.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 20, 2021 15:52:18 GMT -5
It's hard for me to believe that they can't come up with a better use for $10 million. On the other hand, I think they might be able to get him back for like $6 million after declining the option, and that I could see them doing.
I'm leaning the same way, but I think the decision will be decided for them in the games to come. I don't think they'd bring him back as a starter anymore, that ship feels like it's sailing away. But if he's a 1-2 WAR pitcher in the bullpen, don't you think they need to pick up the option? If he's lights out this week and in the playoffs that could be enough to give confidence that he could be that 1-2 WAR reliever. I dunno, so far we're talking about a 20 IP sample. Do they think that's not only real, but so real that he should be paid like an elite reliever? It's certainly possible that their deep analytics point in that direction, but it's above my pay grade ($0) to figure out what the pertinent metrics might be.
By the way, if Garrett Richards can all of a sudden turn into a shutdown reliever, that's another good argument for no non-Mariano relievers to ever go into the Hall of Fame. (See also Drew Pomeranz.)
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Sept 20, 2021 16:02:01 GMT -5
One minor point is Richards is already due a $1.5M buyout so it's an $8.5M decision (hence my Ottavino comp).
We still have a few weeks buuuuut, I'd consider it. It's his Age 34 season next year too. Wouldn't really want more than a year given his injury and consistency history.
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Post by julyanmorley on Sept 20, 2021 16:06:58 GMT -5
Richards option is for $10 million, but it's against a $1.5 million buyout, so it's effectively $8.5 million.
The case for Richards starting: Richards had a 4.02 FIP after his last sticky stuff start. Then the god awful stretch of 8 starts where his season FIP ballooned to 5.14. And now he's been good as a reliever.
My read is that he handled the transition exceptionally poorly, but now he's learned how to pitch without the sticky stuff and he's fine. I'm not sure that moving to the pen is the cause of his resurgence. The guy that was pitching in July would have sucked in the pen, too. He's had excellent, 45, 48 and 57 pitch extended relief stints.
I haven't seen any systemic study, but it seems like the sticky stuff guys in aggregate took a hit to their effectiveness, especially in the short term, but in general they weren't going from pretty good starter to out of the league.
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Post by patford on Sept 20, 2021 20:50:49 GMT -5
What Richards has been doing recently is living in the top of the zone with a 95mph FB. And by living I mean he seems to have actual command in that top third. When batters come to the plate and the viewer is shown a graphic of the hitter's hot and cold zones there are very-very few hitters who have a lot of success with pitches in that part of the strike zone.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 20, 2021 23:02:14 GMT -5
I think a naive statistical reading of Richards' record will say that it's a pretty good idea to pick up his option. His situation is unusual as we all know, and the Red Sox front office will be earning their pay check on this decision. My guess right now is that they do the extremely popular thing and pick up his option and pencil him in for the rotation It's hard for me to believe that they can't come up with a better use for $10 million.
On the other hand, I think they might be able to get him back for like $6 million after declining the option, and that I could see them doing.
I had precisely the same thought. down to the $ figure. But I agree that his value for next year is TBD based on his performance the rest of the year.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2021 22:52:08 GMT -5
My current trust meter rankings:
-the truth is unknowable -a butterfly flaps its wings
-the universe is chaos -existence is meaningless -time is a flat circle -Sawamura
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 23:04:28 GMT -5
My current trust meter rankings: -the truth is unknowable -a butterfly flaps its wings
-the universe is chaos -existence is meaningless -time is a flat circle -Sawamura
And below all that would be Barnes at this point, sadly.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 22, 2021 23:13:53 GMT -5
Yep - for me, it is ABB (anyone but barnes)
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Post by jimed14 on Sept 23, 2021 10:27:51 GMT -5
This may sound crazy, but is it a possibility that Barnes is left off the postseason roster? He's currently the guy getting the lowest leverage spots and isn't finishing them off.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Sept 23, 2021 10:50:27 GMT -5
This may sound crazy, but is it a possibility that Barnes is left off the postseason roster? He's currently the guy getting the lowest leverage spots and isn't finishing them off. Honestly I don’t even care about the results he’s putting right now because you know well enough that relief pitching performances fluctuate a lot giving how small the size of the samples is, an 8 bad innings stretch would make a pitcher look like the worst reliever in MLB for 2 weeks, that’s like 2 back to back bad outings for a starting pitcher which happen on yearly bases to the Scherzers, Coles and Kershaws of the world. What worries me the most about Barnes is the loss of velocity on his fastball, he was throwing 94 last night. That’s a red flag for me.
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