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Post by Jimmy on Apr 9, 2021 10:09:39 GMT -5
I couldn’t find a thread for Whitlock other than the remnants of the Rule 5 thread, I figured it’s about time we start one.
This stems from a stat cast question I had - on Baseball Savant I am able to sort by perceived velocity, but it won’t show me the #’s for perceived velocity even though I’m sorting by it. Anyone know how to view this? I’d like to look at Whitlocks PV numbers considering his elite extension.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Apr 9, 2021 10:42:01 GMT -5
His release extensions on 4seam + sinkers ranks 11th out of 313 pitchers who have thrown a minimum of 20.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 9, 2021 11:15:04 GMT -5
From the game thread ... I really like the current role for Whitlock. Even if you think he'd be one of their best five starters, they don't need him to start - they have 6 guys who can competently (*Richards pending) start, and then Whitlock can be brought in for the higher-leverage middle inning roles. That would've been a contradiction in terms in past years, but the way the game is involving it's an important role now. Plus it helps them manage his innings, as manfred says. It reminds me of what Bloom said about pitcher usage on the podcast: not every guy fits squarely into either the 6-inning starter or 1-inning reliever role. Maybe Whitlock will eventually fit into the traditional starter role, but for now this seems perfect.
Believe it or not I actually agree with you. Like Manfred said, I don't think the Red Sox want to take a guy who hasn't pitched much the last couple of years and stick them in the rotation looking for 6 innings/start. They have to take care of him physically, so I get it. I just think he is better than some of what they already have in the rotation, but yes, they could use him in high leverage situations this season and they can use him to cover the 6th/7th innings as there probably will be a lot of shorter starts this season given that starters' innings are being closely monitored this season. I do think his future, probably next year, lies in the rotation, though. I think he's a starter waiting to happen. We have had a number of guys where we're debating whether they are good enough to eventually stick as starters. We're hopeful on Houck, still have no idea re: Mata, etc, but with Whitlock, I have a good degree of certainty that this guy is going to be a starter. I can see him being a solid #3 starter down the road. Right now Whitlock is barely using his slider -- he threw two in his first outing -- and that's supposed to be a good pitch. So he does have a starter's arsenal. He can add a four-seamer without too much difficulty. And given howquickly he learned Andriese's changeup grip, I'd be surprised if they didn't try to teach him a curve.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 9, 2021 11:18:08 GMT -5
did not know this: "The pair took the recommendations, crunched the available analytics and, finally, used one of the advantages that teams have when prioritizing Rule 5 picks -- the ability to look at up to three players medical information. (Conversely, looking at medical information for players on other teams aren't allowed in trades until the deals are agreed upon.)"
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Post by incandenza on Apr 9, 2021 11:45:57 GMT -5
^^^Really interesting article, which also says this: So they got a guy who they saw as a top pitching prospect, and then he gained 3mph on his fastball, and his change-up went from a fringey third pitch to his best secondary pitch (per Ian Cundall)?
What an all-time steal. And the team they snagged him from is just the cherry on top...
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Post by manfred on Apr 9, 2021 11:51:23 GMT -5
^^^Really interesting article, which also says this: So they got a guy who they saw as a top pitching prospect, and then he gained 3mph on his fastball, and his change-up went from a fringey third pitch to his best secondary pitch (per Ian Cundall)?
What an all-time steal. And the team they snagged him from is just the cherry on top...
We all have caught some Whitlock fever, but he’s pitched 2 games coming off an injury. Maybe it is just the way I roll, but I think already chalking him up as an all-time steal might be setting yourself up for heartbreak. I am optimistic, but I also can imagine bumps ahead.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 9, 2021 11:52:16 GMT -5
It's not more important that they stole him from the Yankees than it's that they've found a very talented arm who could become a staple in their bullpen.......but it feels like it's more important.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 9, 2021 11:52:56 GMT -5
Whitlock was being reported as one of the best available on the Rule 5 lists by all accounts. That the Sox were able to select him is one of the few upsides to their difficult 2020 season. It was a direct consequence of having the fourth pick because of their record.
The change-up is just a devastating pitch when matched with the velocity he can bring up in the zone. That it wasn't seen as an above-average offering when he was acquired says a bit about his makeup and how quickly he's been able to pick it up from Andriese. If he can bring the slider into play, that raises his stock even more.
There's a starting pitcher in there, but the team is going to have to be careful with the guy given his surgery and the lost minor league season. Using him to spell Rodriquez who has himself finally emerged from virus-land is a great idea. Just having him in the pen ready to spell the starters and even take it up a notch is invaluable.
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Post by incandenza on Apr 9, 2021 12:02:05 GMT -5
^^^Really interesting article, which also says this: So they got a guy who they saw as a top pitching prospect, and then he gained 3mph on his fastball, and his change-up went from a fringey third pitch to his best secondary pitch (per Ian Cundall)?
What an all-time steal. And the team they snagged him from is just the cherry on top...
We all have caught some Whitlock fever, but he’s pitched 2 games coming off an injury. Maybe it is just the way I roll, but I think already chalking him up as an all-time steal might be setting yourself up for heartbreak. I am optimistic, but I also can imagine bumps ahead. I am for sure all aboard the hype train here, and acknowledge all caveats. But what's exciting isn't just his performance in 5 IP, it's the scouting reports on the fastball and changeup, and the fact that he's backed up those reports in game action.
No prospect is ever guaranteed to pan out. But IMO to grab a player with Whitlock's potential for literally nothing is already, in itself, a major steal.
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Post by foreverred9 on Apr 9, 2021 12:05:44 GMT -5
I am for sure all aboard the hype train here, and acknowledge all caveats. But what's exciting isn't just his performance in 5 IP, it's the scouting reports on the fastball and changeup, and the fact that he's backed up those reports in game action. No prospect is ever guaranteed to pan out. But IMO to grab a player with Whitlock's potential for literally nothing is already, in itself, a major steal.
This - normally when we grab a rule 5 pick we struggle to keep that player on the roster as the 25th player, send them down the next year, and hope we didn't stunt their development too much. Whitlock looks like he'll be a key contributor to this year's team.
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Post by manfred on Apr 9, 2021 12:08:12 GMT -5
We all have caught some Whitlock fever, but he’s pitched 2 games coming off an injury. Maybe it is just the way I roll, but I think already chalking him up as an all-time steal might be setting yourself up for heartbreak. I am optimistic, but I also can imagine bumps ahead. I am for sure all aboard the hype train here, and acknowledge all caveats. But what's exciting isn't just his performance in 5 IP, it's the scouting reports on the fastball and changeup, and the fact that he's backed up those reports in game action.
No prospect is ever guaranteed to pan out. But IMO to grab a player with Whitlock's potential for literally nothing is already, in itself, a major steal.
Totally agree, and I’m stoked. This feels like it could be sort of a mini-baseball-miracle. I’m just saying that for me, I’m trying to keep things in perspective because there remains a long path. Really, for this year I actually hope they are so cautious that we are complaining about not unleashing him more at the end of the season. Get strong, work on new pitches, stay healthy... kick a$$ next year. But — stay... healthy!!!
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Post by greatscottcooper on Apr 9, 2021 12:10:43 GMT -5
The thing that stinks about Whitlock is the fact of HOW he's pitching really well right now have you dreaming about him as a starter, he was developed as a starter up until this year. His biggest knock from a scouting perspective holding him back was the development of his third pitch and now he's throwing 3 pitches well. But he's rule 5 guy, so it's not like you can stretch him out as a starter down in Worcester. So you figure he sticks in the bullpen this year, and afterwards? Daniel Bard will forever scare me into developing a relief pitcher back into a starter. Sometimes a bird in hand is worth two in the bush?
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 9, 2021 12:28:12 GMT -5
The thing that stinks about Whitlock is the fact of HOW he's pitching really well right now have you dreaming about him as a starter, he was developed as a starter up until this year. His biggest knock from a scouting perspective holding him back was the development of his third pitch and now he's throwing 3 pitches well. But he's rule 5 guy, so it's not like you can stretch him out as a starter down in Worcester. So you figure he sticks in the bullpen this year, and afterwards? Daniel Bard will forever scare me into developing a relief pitcher back into a starter. Sometimes a bird in hand is worth two in the bush? Two completely different pitchers. Whitlock has been a starter since he's been drafted while Bard was a natural reliever through the system. I could see him starting games in August depending on how the season shakes out and if trades are made. When Nasty Nate gets hurt again you have to assume Houck is in front of Whitlock but if 2 injuries happen at once he's probably ahead of Seabold. Whitlock is also 25 in June so while he would have been old for a AA prospect, ironically enough he's ended up where he should be.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 9, 2021 12:34:05 GMT -5
^^^Really interesting article, which also says this: So they got a guy who they saw as a top pitching prospect, and then he gained 3mph on his fastball, and his change-up went from a fringey third pitch to his best secondary pitch (per Ian Cundall)?
What an all-time steal. And the team they snagged him from is just the cherry on top...
Calling yourself one of the best pitching prospects in the Sox system is like calling yourself one of the richest people in Detroit.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Apr 9, 2021 12:47:15 GMT -5
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Post by soxin8 on Apr 9, 2021 12:56:40 GMT -5
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Post by incandenza on Apr 9, 2021 13:07:46 GMT -5
^^^Really interesting article, which also says this: So they got a guy who they saw as a top pitching prospect, and then he gained 3mph on his fastball, and his change-up went from a fringey third pitch to his best secondary pitch (per Ian Cundall)?
What an all-time steal. And the team they snagged him from is just the cherry on top...
Calling yourself one of the best pitching prospects in the Sox system is like calling yourself one of the richest people in Detroit. Houck, Mata, Ward, Seabold, Ramirez, Song, Groome... It's not exactly Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz, but you can get pretty far down the list and still be talking about guys with significant potential. If they saw Whitlock even at the bottom of that tier before he unleashed the new arsenal, that's a pretty great pick-up.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Apr 9, 2021 13:30:28 GMT -5
Just saying the city is broke as hell and in terms of pitching prospects so aren't the Sox.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 9, 2021 15:13:22 GMT -5
The thing that stinks about Whitlock is the fact of HOW he's pitching really well right now have you dreaming about him as a starter, he was developed as a starter up until this year. His biggest knock from a scouting perspective holding him back was the development of his third pitch and now he's throwing 3 pitches well. But he's rule 5 guy, so it's not like you can stretch him out as a starter down in Worcester. So you figure he sticks in the bullpen this year, and afterwards? Daniel Bard will forever scare me into developing a relief pitcher back into a starter. Sometimes a bird in hand is worth two in the bush? Two completely different pitchers. Whitlock has been a starter since he's been drafted while Bard was a natural reliever through the system. I could see him starting games in August depending on how the season shakes out and if trades are made. When Nasty Nate gets hurt again you have to assume Houck is in front of Whitlock but if 2 injuries happen at once he's probably ahead of Seabold. Whitlock is also 25 in June so while he would have been old for a AA prospect, ironically enough he's ended up where he should be. Furthermore, Bard was awful in his last month as a reliever --- part of that year's big collapse, in fact -- and really good his first month as a starter, which falsifies the entire idea that the conversion had anything to do with his problems. You can see the movement on his pitches declining steadily from his debut to that September. He had an undiagnosed case of thoracic outlet syndrome the whole time (he finally had the surgery in 2016).
Folks who understood BABIP knew his first start was terrific. He looked dominant: 17 swings and mises on 96 pitches (an elite percentage), 6 SO, 1 BB. He got 10 GB and gave up 6 hits, all clustered in the innings where he gave up runs, and none particularly hard-hit. That turned 4 outs into 3 runs, and Justin Thomas, who I don't even remember, relieved him with men on and tacked on another. On a normal day it's 1 ER in 6.1 IP instead of 5 ER in 5 IP, and everyone is declaring the move a stroke of brilliance. And I get hours of my life back by not explaining this again and again!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 9, 2021 15:44:44 GMT -5
One thing that interests me is that the spin axis for a sinker and a changeup are usually very close to one another. In theory, that should make them tougher to tell apart, making both more effective.
I'm working on getting Statcast Spin axis data (it's not an option in Statcast Search, and as of now there's no 2021 drop-down option on their leader boards).
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Post by soxinsf on Apr 9, 2021 16:33:37 GMT -5
One thing that interests me is that the spin axis for a sinker and a changeup are usually very close to one another. In theory, that should make them tougher to tell apart, making both more effective.
I'm working on getting Statcast Spin axis data (it's not an option in Statcast Search, and as of now there's no 2021 drop-down option on their leader boards).
Eric, please explain how the sinker and a well thrown changeup differ. If the spin axis is the same, should the action of the pitch not be similar. I am wondering if that makes Whitlock into a three pitch pitcher or something less than that at present. Thanks.
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Post by kevfc89 on Apr 9, 2021 16:59:54 GMT -5
One thing that interests me is that the spin axis for a sinker and a changeup are usually very close to one another. In theory, that should make them tougher to tell apart, making both more effective.
I'm working on getting Statcast Spin axis data (it's not an option in Statcast Search, and as of now there's no 2021 drop-down option on their leader boards).
Conveniently, Pitching Ninja posted an overlay of his two-seamer and changeup.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 9, 2021 17:25:41 GMT -5
One thing that interests me is that the spin axis for a sinker and a changeup are usually very close to one another. In theory, that should make them tougher to tell apart, making both more effective.
I'm working on getting Statcast Spin axis data (it's not an option in Statcast Search, and as of now there's no 2021 drop-down option on their leader boards).
Eric, please explain how the sinker and a well thrown changeup differ. If the spin axis is the same, should the action of the pitch not be similar. I am wondering if that makes Whitlock into a three pitch pitcher or something less than that at present. Thanks. Spin rate, and velocity thrown. I believe that a good changeup grip applies friction and hence drag to the baseball during the release, which slows it down right out of the hand, even though the arm speed can't be distinguished from that for a FB. Whereas a fastball is thrown off the fingertips with as little drag as possible.
As you can now see from that overlay, the movement is similar. Sinker runs in a bit more; the extra drop on the change is partly gravity having longer to act on it.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 9, 2021 18:08:15 GMT -5
Tampa destroying the punkers and their new star pitcher Kluber. Kluber's margin for error is tiny now. He has to be just about perfect to be effective. I can actually bring this back on topic!
Kluber was fine through 2 innings. A D.J. throwing error and cheap hit plated a run in the first.
He got hammered in the third and left leading 4-3, with the bases full and 1 out.
The guy who flushed the game down the toilet was Nick Nelson, their 25 year-old starting pitching prospect who is serving as a multi-inning reliever. He immediately gave up a double that pinned the eventual loss on Kluber. He avoided further damage then but was awful in the 4th, giving up a legit 4 more runs.
Whitlock is actually 6 months younger, BTW.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 10, 2021 11:50:31 GMT -5
Blood on the floor... yanksgoyard.com/2021/04/05/yankees-rookie-pitchers-traded-widener-whitlock/They lost seven players in the Rule 5, but they've also traded talent they could use. I'd wager that Whitlock will loom larger and larger in fan discussions. I watched Kluber pitch and he is not the same guy. Fastball hovered around 89-90, and the breaking pitch is a shadow of what it was.
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