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4/16-4/19 Red Sox vs. White Sox Series Thread
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Post by kmann on Apr 19, 2021 14:17:15 GMT -5
He's had some good plays: the one that almost seemed to hit the wall, where he was up about 7-8 inches higher than Yaz or Beni could reach, and several times he has fielded balls off the wall very smoothly, and he's got two assists in two weeks. The D stuff is just weird to me. Renfroe has been great defensively but has a lower dWAR. It is just odd. For whatever it is worth, Renfroe does much better than Franchy on baseball savant in outs above average. I’ve always been suspicious of dWAR. I assumed the explanation was defense, but I still think it is kind of crazy to think that Franchy has been a bigger overall contributor than Devers thus far.
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Post by manfred on Apr 19, 2021 14:25:40 GMT -5
The D stuff is just weird to me. Renfroe has been great defensively but has a lower dWAR. It is just odd. For whatever it is worth, Renfroe does much better than Franchy on baseball savant in outs above average. I’ve always been suspicious of dWAR. I assumed the explanation was defense, but I still think it is kind of crazy to think that Franchy has been a bigger overall contributor than Devers thus far. And Devers (perhaps fairly) has a negative dWAR, which saps a bit from his total.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 19, 2021 14:27:25 GMT -5
Great day for the bats.
I know Whitlock hadn't pitched much lately and he was due to pitch. I wish they could have used him in a situation where it was a close game and he could go 2 to 3 innings and finish up the game, a good scenario that can happen the day after a close win where Ottavino and Barnes are used.
I read that they want to use him in longer relief stints so they can build him up. I know they don't plan on starting him this year but by using him in the longer relief stints they can leave open the possibility of starting him toward the end of the season if they want to go that way.
I'm just hoping they can use him more where the game is closer than when it's a blow-out. This guy is just too good to use in low leverage situations.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Apr 19, 2021 14:42:13 GMT -5
He's had some good plays: the one that almost seemed to hit the wall, where he was up about 7-8 inches higher than Yaz or Beni could reach, and several times he has fielded balls off the wall very smoothly, and he's got two assists in two weeks. The D stuff is just weird to me. Renfroe has been great defensively but has a lower dWAR. It is just odd. For whatever it is worth, Renfroe does much better than Franchy on baseball savant in outs above average. I’ve always been suspicious of dWAR. Rule of thumb (to me). The more advanced a metric is? The more suspicious it is in actuality.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 19, 2021 14:46:57 GMT -5
You have a weird agenda against the guy, still shitting on him when he gets on 3 times and knocks in 2 runs. He hasn’t been that bad this year and I do expect him to only improve as I don’t think he’ll maintain a K rate this high Agenda? Maybe? Weird? Not so sure. You know how people say “that guy has a hole in his swing”? Franchy’s swing appears to be a hole. I am not a fan of the multi-team-rejects as reclamation projects, to be honest. There comes a point when a guy has passed through so many knowledgeable people that you have to start to think they are what they are. And nothing I’ve seen from Franchy makes me think he can hit. I am surprised by how weak his contact has been, since he swings out of his shoes. But I am not at all surprised he is in the 2nd percentile for Ks. He is a decent defender. . Cordero is a placeholder for Duran....more likely Duran, Cordero, and Verdugo will play vs RHP, and Renfroe, Verdugo, and Hernandez will play against LHP.
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Post by unitspin on Apr 19, 2021 14:51:53 GMT -5
Ya erod and eovaldi eating innings to save then pen I'll wait for that. No need to wait, just happened As you say this cue the ambulance. Erod will trip over a rock and be out til july.
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Post by kmann on Apr 19, 2021 14:56:04 GMT -5
I assumed the explanation was defense, but I still think it is kind of crazy to think that Franchy has been a bigger overall contributor than Devers thus far. And Devers (perhaps fairly) has a negative dWAR, which saps a bit from his total. No doubt in my mind that Devers' D so far deserves to be negative. I guess my question is: do you believe in the accuracy of the WAR calculation and thus believe Franchy has been a bigger contributor than Devers thus far? For me, I will gladly live with Devers poor D if he hits 50 HR's, but I am already getting a bit frustrated with Franchy. That is why it seems weird to me that if Franchy continued his current play for the whole season he would be a 5 WAR player and Devers a 3 WAR player. For example, take the play today when Franchy went to play the ball off the wall and the ball bounced on the warning track for a double. Ruled a hit, but clearly a ball that should be caught. Does a play like that hurt Franchy's dWAR?
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Post by manfred on Apr 19, 2021 15:14:02 GMT -5
And Devers (perhaps fairly) has a negative dWAR, which saps a bit from his total. No doubt in my mind that Devers' D so far deserves to be negative. I guess my question is: do you believe in the accuracy of the WAR calculation and thus believe Franchy has been a bigger contributor than Devers thus far? For me, I will gladly live with Devers poor D if he hits 50 HR's, but I am already getting a bit frustrated with Franchy. That is why it seems weird to me that if Franchy continued his current play for the whole season he would be a 5 WAR player and Devers a 3 WAR player. For example, take the play today when Franchy went to play the ball off the wall and the ball bounced on the warning track for a double. Ruled a hit, but clearly a ball that should be caught. Does a play like that hurt Franchy's dWAR? I am not the man to ask. Personally, I don’t like WAR that much. I think the D stuff is often way off (Franchy’s D right now put him as the 3rd most valuable player on the team coming into today!). But others might have a better explanation/defense. I think overall we get lazy sometimes and shorthand guys with this stat or that. Fine. Franchy has a higher WAR than everyone but X and JDM (tied with Arroyo) going into today. I can’t imagine anyone believes he has been the 3rd most valuable everyday player thus far.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 19, 2021 15:18:02 GMT -5
Great day for the bats. I know Whitlock hadn't pitched much lately and he was due to pitch. I wish they could have used him in a situation where it was a close game and he could go 2 to 3 innings and finish up the game, a good scenario that can happen the day after a close win where Ottavino and Barnes are used. I read that they want to use him in longer relief stints so they can build him up. I know they don't plan on starting him this year but by using him in the longer relief stints they can leave open the possibility of starting him toward the end of the season if they want to go that way. I'm just hoping they can use him more where the game is closer than when it's a blow-out. This guy is just too good to use in low leverage situations. On that note, Barnes, Ottavino, Hernandez, and Andriese all did not have to pitch Sunday or Monday which has a massive amount of value😀
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 19, 2021 15:19:57 GMT -5
RE: the WAR talk, that statistic isn't meant to be useful in this small of a sample size. I wouldn't put too much into a 20-game sample.
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 14,083
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Post by cdj on Apr 19, 2021 15:20:21 GMT -5
Hey Guys, I follow daily on this site but rarely post. I am in need of some help. I just looked at the Sox offensive stats on ESPN.com. Per ESPN, Franchy currently has a WAR of 0.5 and Devers has a WAR of 0.3. Can someone please explain to me how this is possible? Devers is on pace for a 50 HR season and 140 RBI's and Franchy is just being Franchy. I have been following baseball for decades but never tried to fully understand these advanced metrics. Is there anyone that will argue that Franchy has been a greater contributor thus far than Devers? Thanks for your help. That’s all defense and I wouldn’t put too much stock into those numbers right now
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 19, 2021 15:23:17 GMT -5
As you say this cue the ambulance. Erod will trip over a rock and be out til july. Repeat after me: "I'm a Red Sox fan and it's ok to be happy." Great post !!!!!!!!! Some fans have to find a reason to be unhappy. It is better to enjoy the 11-6 start (11 of 16 games against good competition) and see what happens.....more fun too.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 19, 2021 15:31:26 GMT -5
F'real. Will this keep up? No, certainly not at this pace, as this is clearly not a 105-win team. But man, the doomsaying is just tiresome sometimes.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 19, 2021 15:35:12 GMT -5
You beat me to it. I was going to mention that after the two losses this weekend and today's win they were down to 105 wins.
Edit: I'll add that rumors of the death of Tampa Bay were greatly exaggerated. There is, however, a serious funk taking hold in the Bronx.
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Post by manfred on Apr 19, 2021 15:52:11 GMT -5
F'real. View AttachmentWill this keep up? No, certainly not at this pace, as this is clearly not a 105-win team. But man, the doomsaying is just tiresome sometimes. I suspect I get lumped in the “doomsayers,” but a comment to cover a number of discussions: non-controversial/super positive comments generally come and go — or never get made at all. Taking controversial (or even crazy) stands result in long slash’n’burn threads. So that proportion gives a greater sense of doom’n’gloom than there likely is. To wit: JDM is back, looking great, and leading the league in RBIs. But no thread of people saying that. Of that which we need not speak, we pass over in silence. Anyway, the preseason win predictions were, well, I think unanimously under 100... but there wasn’t a ton of *doom.* It just seems to me that it is the hard cases that get the most discussion, and hard lines get drawn, which gives the sense of doom.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 19, 2021 15:55:52 GMT -5
Great day for the bats. I know Whitlock hadn't pitched much lately and he was due to pitch. I wish they could have used him in a situation where it was a close game and he could go 2 to 3 innings and finish up the game, a good scenario that can happen the day after a close win where Ottavino and Barnes are used. I read that they want to use him in longer relief stints so they can build him up. I know they don't plan on starting him this year but by using him in the longer relief stints they can leave open the possibility of starting him toward the end of the season if they want to go that way. I'm just hoping they can use him more where the game is closer than when it's a blow-out. This guy is just too good to use in low leverage situations. On that note, Barnes, Ottavino, Hernandez, and Andriese all did not have to pitch Sunday or Monday which has a massive amount of value😀 No, they didn't, but I'm talking about this as an ideal way to use him if the Sox have won a close game using their primary short relief guys the day before and then have another close game the following day in which they need to cover 2 or 3 innings of relief. Of course the benefit to using Whitlock like that is that the following day assuming that the win streak was extended you have the short relief crew to protect a close game the following day. For 7 run leads you can use Brice/Valdez/whoever to protect the lead.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 19, 2021 16:08:47 GMT -5
On that note, Barnes, Ottavino, Hernandez, and Andriese all did not have to pitch Sunday or Monday which has a massive amount of value😀 No, they didn't, but I'm talking about this as an ideal way to use him if the Sox have won a close game using their primary short relief guys the day before and then have another close game the following day in which they need to cover 2 or 3 innings of relief. Of course the benefit to using Whitlock like that is that the following day assuming that the win streak was extended you have the short relief crew to protect a close game the following day. For 7 run leads you can use Brice/Valdez/whoever to protect the lead. In a perfect world you would use Whitlock that way, but the Red Sox trailed in both games of the doubleheader and Andriese covered Saturday, so the Red Sox used Whitlock today to keep him fresh (vs getting rusty sitting in the bullpen). Sometimes circumstances do not work out the way we would like. (...and yes I understand perfectly what you were trying to say....pitching plans rarely work the way you would like - Wakefield in game 3 ALCS 2004 vs starting game 4.....Eovaldi long relief appearance in game 3 vs LAD in 2018)...
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 19, 2021 16:23:00 GMT -5
No, they didn't, but I'm talking about this as an ideal way to use him if the Sox have won a close game using their primary short relief guys the day before and then have another close game the following day in which they need to cover 2 or 3 innings of relief. Of course the benefit to using Whitlock like that is that the following day assuming that the win streak was extended you have the short relief crew to protect a close game the following day. For 7 run leads you can use Brice/Valdez/whoever to protect the lead. In a perfect world you would use Whitlock that way, but the Red Sox trailed in both games of the doubleheader and Andriese covered Saturday, so the Red Sox used Whitlock today to keep him fresh (vs getting rusty sitting in the bullpen). Sometimes circumstances do not work out the way we would like. (...and yes I understand perfectly what you were trying to say....pitching plans rarely work the way you would like - Wakefield in game 3 ALCS 2004 vs starting game 4.....Eovaldi long relief appearance in game 3 vs LAD in 2018)... He hadn't pitched in awhile so they had to get him in a game. I get that. That wasn't really the point of my post and yes, you're right that pitching scenarios don't always work out the way you'd map it out. My thought was that he's good enough to utilize in a close game as an alternate way to win other than using the Hernandez/Ottavino/Barnes short relief tandem - and yeah, that doesn't even include Andriese who could be used in a similar way to Whitlock. The thought I was having is that having a guy like Whitlock in high leverage longer relief allows you to keep a winning streak going. The 2018 Red Sox were great at winning the close game, then bashing a team the next day, and then having the team set up to win a 3rd game in the row if the game was close because their high leverage relievers had rest - so they were able to keep their streaks going. They had Stephen Wright, but he was more of a starter early on, got hurt, and then auditioned in the setup role in September. Whitlock is a little different from that and I think this team obviously won't be as dominant, so they will play more closer games, which today wasn't obviously, so a guy like Whitlock allows you to win 3 close games in a row because of his ability to go long in a close game. That's a luxury. I think a lot of teams would have their pen burn out if they had to play a few games in a row - they don't have that guy who can do what Whitlock does, as well as he has done it. And although not as dominant they kind of doubled down on that with Andriese's presence.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 19, 2021 16:26:16 GMT -5
No, they didn't, but I'm talking about this as an ideal way to use him if the Sox have won a close game using their primary short relief guys the day before and then have another close game the following day in which they need to cover 2 or 3 innings of relief. Of course the benefit to using Whitlock like that is that the following day assuming that the win streak was extended you have the short relief crew to protect a close game the following day. For 7 run leads you can use Brice/Valdez/whoever to protect the lead. In a perfect world you would use Whitlock that way, but the Red Sox trailed in both games of the doubleheader and Andriese covered Saturday, so the Red Sox used Whitlock today to keep him fresh (vs getting rusty sitting in the bullpen). Sometimes circumstances do not work out the way we would like. (...and yes I understand perfectly what you were trying to say....pitching plans rarely work the way you would like - Wakefield in game 3 ALCS 2004 vs starting game 4.....Eovaldi long relief appearance in game 3 vs LAD in 2018)... Just as an aside, I've always wondered why Francona didn't simply pitch Derek Lowe in relief for Game 3. If the game was lost and it appeared to be and Tito thought they had a better chance of winning a must-win Game 4 with Wakefield starting, then why not pitch Lowe in Game 3 in long relief? I know Wakefield volunteered but wouldn't you have Lowe warming up in the pen knowing you need innings, the game is lost, and he hadn't pitched in awhile anyways? At that time, Wakefield was seen as tougher on the Yankees than Lowe was. The Yankees had always ate his lunch prior to his ALCS game starts. So as much as he wanted to stay away from Timlin and Foulke I would also think Tito would have preferred to start Wakefield rather than Lowe in Game 4?
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 19, 2021 16:44:42 GMT -5
In a perfect world you would use Whitlock that way, but the Red Sox trailed in both games of the doubleheader and Andriese covered Saturday, so the Red Sox used Whitlock today to keep him fresh (vs getting rusty sitting in the bullpen). Sometimes circumstances do not work out the way we would like. (...and yes I understand perfectly what you were trying to say....pitching plans rarely work the way you would like - Wakefield in game 3 ALCS 2004 vs starting game 4.....Eovaldi long relief appearance in game 3 vs LAD in 2018)... Just as an aside, I've always wondered why Francona didn't simply pitch Derek Lowe in relief for Game 3. If the game was lost and it appeared to be and Tito thought they had a better chance of winning a must-win Game 4 with Wakefield starting, then why not pitch Lowe in Game 3 in long relief? I know Wakefield volunteered but wouldn't you have Lowe warming up in the pen knowing you need innings, the game is lost, and he hadn't pitched in awhile anything? At that time, Wakefield was seen as tougher on the Yankees than Lowe was. The Yankees had always ate his lunch prior to his ALCS game starts. So as much as he wanted to stay away from Timlin and Foulke I would also think Tito would have preferred to start Wakefield rather than Lowe in Game 4? Great question, I am just glad it worked out the way it did! I also like that the NYY are still the only team in any sport to loose a 7 games series after leading 3-0. When NYY fans get loud mouthed (which happens all the time I just throw that in their face followed by “only appeared in 1 WS since 2003.......eat that”. It shuts them up every time. 😀👍🏻
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Post by Guidas on Apr 19, 2021 17:46:25 GMT -5
Great win!
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Post by patford on Apr 19, 2021 18:11:42 GMT -5
Just as an aside, I've always wondered why Francona didn't simply pitch Derek Lowe in relief for Game 3. If the game was lost and it appeared to be and Tito thought they had a better chance of winning a must-win Game 4 with Wakefield starting, then why not pitch Lowe in Game 3 in long relief? I know Wakefield volunteered but wouldn't you have Lowe warming up in the pen knowing you need innings, the game is lost, and he hadn't pitched in awhile anything? At that time, Wakefield was seen as tougher on the Yankees than Lowe was. The Yankees had always ate his lunch prior to his ALCS game starts. So as much as he wanted to stay away from Timlin and Foulke I would also think Tito would have preferred to start Wakefield rather than Lowe in Game 4? Great question, I am just glad it worked out the way it did! I also like that the NYY are still the only team in any sport to loose a 7 games series after leading 3-0. When NYY fans get loud mouthed (which happens all the time I just throw that in their face followed by “only appeared in 1 WS since 2003.......eat that”. It shuts them up every time. 😀👍🏻 It's happened four times in the NHL. It's sweet though that only the Sox did it in MLB and even better that it was the Yankees.
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Post by patford on Apr 19, 2021 18:34:41 GMT -5
Seeing La Russa used two position players as pitchers today makes me wonder if we'll see Dalbec in that spot at some point this year. He would be the most likely option I assume.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 19, 2021 18:37:48 GMT -5
I suspect I get lumped in the “doomsayers,” No. You get lumped in with those who think every post on the forum is in response to them. I don't even mean that in a bad way, but it's kinda true and it's kind of funny that it happened here.
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Post by Don Caballero on Apr 19, 2021 18:46:51 GMT -5
Boston fans are perpetually in need of a hug.
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