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4/22-4/25 Red Sox vs. Mariners Series Thread
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 25, 2021 21:12:29 GMT -5
Since July 1, 2019, in 430 PAs, Renfroe is batting a cool .171/.258/.350. What are the odds that he makes it through the season in Boston? I'm thinking about 30%? He will make it through the year as a defensive replacement/4th outfielder if Cordero is scrapped and Duran is a full time starter, but no way he plays as much as he has been.
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Post by soxinsf on Apr 25, 2021 21:25:08 GMT -5
Since July 1, 2019, in 430 PAs, Renfroe is batting a cool .171/.258/.350. What are the odds that he makes it through the season in Boston? I'm thinking about 30%? He will make it through the year as a defensive replacement/4th outfielder if Cordero is scrapped and Duran is a full time starter, but no way he plays as much as he has been. I am perfectly happy to see Renfroe go somewhere else, but he is a quality outfielder and could have a role as a RH bat off the bench. In those roles, he is a logical backup piece to Duran (always agreeing that Duran is as yet unproven).
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Apr 25, 2021 21:44:13 GMT -5
He will make it through the year as a defensive replacement/4th outfielder if Cordero is scrapped and Duran is a full time starter, but no way he plays as much as he has been. I am perfectly happy to see Renfroe go somewhere else, but he is a quality outfielder and could have a role as a RH bat off the bench. In those roles, he is a logical backup piece to Duran (always agreeing that Duran is as yet unproven). The Red Sox may be able to bring up Santana to take Cordero’s ABs as he is a switch hitter, then maybe Renfroe can be limited hitting against to LHP off the bench. It would be interesting to see Santana, Duran, and Verdugo in the OF all hitting left handed against RP (add Devers 3B, Martin 2B).
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Apr 25, 2021 23:32:12 GMT -5
I am perfectly happy to see Renfroe go somewhere else, but he is a quality outfielder and could have a role as a RH bat off the bench. In those roles, he is a logical backup piece to Duran (always agreeing that Duran is as yet unproven). The Red Sox may be able to bring up Santana to take Cordero’s ABs as he is a switch hitter, then maybe Renfroe can be limited hitting against to LHP off the bench. It would be interesting to see Santana, Duran, and Verdugo in the OF all hitting left handed against RP (add Devers 3B, Martin 2B). I think that’s the move to make right now. Let Franchy figure things out away from the lineup, have Santana come up and hopefully play like it’s 2019 again
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Post by kjkramer on Apr 25, 2021 23:36:21 GMT -5
I really want to see a good run of Chavis playing time.
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ianrs
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Post by ianrs on Apr 26, 2021 5:13:14 GMT -5
Pretty amazing that we stole Eduardo Rodriguez for a half year of Andrew Miller E-Rod career WAR for Red Sox: 14.2, even with the lost COVID season Andrew Miller WAR Orioles: 1.0
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Apr 26, 2021 5:31:22 GMT -5
Pretty amazing that we stole Eduardo Rodriguez for a half year of Andrew Miller E-Rod career WAR for Red Sox: 14.2, even with the lost COVID season Andrew Miller WAR Orioles: 1.0 The O's made the playoffs that year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 26, 2021 10:19:31 GMT -5
The Red Sox may be able to bring up Santana to take Cordero’s ABs as he is a switch hitter, then maybe Renfroe can be limited hitting against to LHP off the bench. It would be interesting to see Santana, Duran, and Verdugo in the OF all hitting left handed against RP (add Devers 3B, Martin 2B). I think that’s the move to make right now. Let Franchy figure things out away from the lineup, have Santana come up and hopefully play like it’s 2019 again 1 of his last 22 with 14 K's. It's probably time to at least sit him for a bit, if not send him to the ATS (which is shortly going to be the WooSox). I really want to see a good run of Chavis playing time. In other words, 2019? He played in 95 of the team's 110 games from April 20 to August 11, and played every day from May 11 until July 20. A lot of us seem to forget it but he has gotten run at the MLB level. Much more than, say, Dalbec has gotten. Seems crazy but Chavis has like 400 more MLB PAs than Dalbec. I would never have guessed it was that many. I'd love to bring up Chavis and send down Cordero but I'm not sure that works. Cordero's role right now is the LHH side of a platoon. Bringing up a RHH IF doesn't really work - yes, you can give Gonzalez more time in LF but we again run into the fact that Chavis is completely redundant with Arroyo and Dalbec. When are you going to play him instead of them other than to give them a breather? With a short bench, that doesn't really fly. The very obvious solutions are Duran and Santana, but I do think they want Duran to get some legit AAA games first and Alex's report that they've mutually agreed to push back Santana's opt-out doesn't make me think he's close. If we see a move, it's likelier to come around when the minor league season is starting. Cora, as quoted in Speier: www.bostonglobe.com/2021/04/25/sports/franchy-corderos-struggles-testing-red-sox-patience-potential-help-closes
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 26, 2021 10:41:33 GMT -5
Pretty amazing that we stole Eduardo Rodriguez for a half year of Andrew Miller E-Rod career WAR for Red Sox: 14.2, even with the lost COVID season Andrew Miller WAR Orioles: 1.0 Miller put up that 1.0 WAR in 20 innings though. The Orioles traded for the right guy, they just traded the wrong guy to do it. And the issue with the Orioles wasn't even trading Eduardo, it's that every single pitching prospect in the mid-'10s, even a stud like Dylan Bundy, went totally sideways in that organization. That's why they fell apart so fast and were the worst team I'd ever seen within a couple years of that. So yeah, it was a great move by Cherington given that Boston was out of contention and Miller was a free agent, but it made sense from Baltimore's perspective.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 26, 2021 10:56:12 GMT -5
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 26, 2021 11:10:11 GMT -5
Jesus... I knew CV had slumped, but looking at his season... it is basically a few massive early games keeping his stats from being brutal. Last 10 games, .139/.205/.344. Yikes. Whatever is wrong with Verdugo better be brief and better not linger. The Sox absolutely cannot afford not to have Verdugo, JDM, X, and Devers in the lineup. They are going to have to carry them.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 26, 2021 11:18:16 GMT -5
RE: Verdugo, sounds like tomorrow off but likely back Wednesday to be greeted by deGrom.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 26, 2021 11:43:33 GMT -5
Jesus... I knew CV had slumped, but looking at his season... it is basically a few massive early games keeping his stats from being brutal. Last 10 games, .139/.205/.344. Yikes. Whatever is wrong with Verdugo better be brief and better not linger. The Sox absolutely cannot afford not to have Verdugo, JDM, X, and Devers in the lineup. They are going to have to carry them. I think of Christian Vazquez as a luxury in the #8/9 spot of the order, but as the guy behind Devers, that's kind of less than ideal. Ideally this lineup would have a legit leadoff hitter and a bopper who can have a reasonable OBP batting in the 6th spot. My hope is that Duran and Dalbec occupy those lineup spots by season's end. Of course, I also hope for some production out of LF which they don't currently have either. If they did Vazquez could bat 8th and how many teams would have a player that could in the #8 spot?
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 26, 2021 11:48:38 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Dalbec has been hitting... just not home runs. That is SO weird to me. Gotta think they're coming soon.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 26, 2021 11:52:19 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Dalbec has been hitting... just not home runs. That is SO weird to me. Gotta think they're coming soon. Yet he is last in WAR for the starters. That doesn’t really correspond with what I’ve seen... he is hitting, has good at bats, fields well, runs well... why the WAR pounding? (I know it is early... I just don’t get why even in a small sample he is getting trashed).
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Post by incandenza on Apr 26, 2021 11:56:05 GMT -5
Jesus... I knew CV had slumped, but looking at his season... it is basically a few massive early games keeping his stats from being brutal. Last 10 games, .139/.205/.344. Yikes. Whatever is wrong with Verdugo better be brief and better not linger. The Sox absolutely cannot afford not to have Verdugo, JDM, X, and Devers in the lineup. They are going to have to carry them. I think of Christian Vazquez as a luxury in the #8/9 spot of the order, but as the guy behind Devers, that's kind of less than ideal. Ideally this lineup would have a legit leadoff hitter and a bopper who can have a reasonable OBP batting in the 6th spot. My hope is that Duran and Dalbec occupy those lineup spots by season's end. Of course, I also hope for some production out of LF which they don't currently have either. If they did Vazquez could bat 8th and how many teams would have a player that could in the #8 spot? If you merely throw out the opening series against Baltimore, Dalbec has a 115 wRC+ (.292/.346/.417), despite 0 home runs. He has a .392 xwOBA for the season. It would be more than justifiable to bat him 6th right now, if you ask me, though maybe they want to keep the pressure off him as much as possible.
ADD: Re: manfred's question, he has an 82 wRC+ overall - that's how much that Baltimore series killed him! - and that is, on the face of it, terrible for a first baseman, WAR-wise. Also the defensive metrics hate him (-4 DRS already, and -5.1 UZR/150). Anecdotally, he has looked a little Deversian to me: some great plays, but he's also boofed it on some very makeable plays. I'm pretty confident the defense will work out as a plus for him in the long run, just as the xwOBA foretells statistical improvement on the offensive side.
ADD2: He's tied for fifth-worst in DRS out of 156 qualified players... as a first baseman. How is that even possible? It's really hard to believe he's cost them 4 runs on defense in 18 games.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 26, 2021 12:07:18 GMT -5
I think it's mostly relative to other first basemen around the league. It raises the level of replacement level higher than left field, so his WAR looks worse than Cordero's, for example. The other problem is that neither FG or B-Ref are in love with his defense, despite the fact that he's passing the eye test right now.
It's funny that his batting average is 12 points higher than the standard 1B but his Iso is 72 points lower. He's seeing fewer pitches per plate appearance (3.97, right about the team and league averages), and I wonder if Cora has him being intentionally more aggressive on pitches in the zone, which was obviously a successful approach in the 2018 run.
EDIT: And while it's true that he's played better since that opening series, he's also riding a .438 BABIP since then. He's gotten unlucky on balls carrying out of the park but made up some of that luck on singles falling in. The 7.7% BB rate to 30.8% strikeouts in that stretch aren't really what you want.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Apr 26, 2021 12:11:20 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Dalbec has been hitting... just not home runs. That is SO weird to me. Gotta think they're coming soon. He was 2nd in barrel% behind only Devers as of a couple days ago. So I think some of it is just rough luck. But overall, I’d say his slow start has still been promising unlike Cordero or Renfroe.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 26, 2021 15:38:10 GMT -5
Jesus... I knew CV had slumped, but looking at his season... it is basically a few massive early games keeping his stats from being brutal. Last 10 games, .139/.205/.344. Yikes. Whatever is wrong with Verdugo better be brief and better not linger. The Sox absolutely cannot afford not to have Verdugo, JDM, X, and Devers in the lineup. They are going to have to carry them. No they won't. You're navel gazing in the extreme. You need to step back and appreciate what a typical season looks like for those stats. Here's Vazquez' 2019 season, run with an 11-point moving window - the stats are re-computed over the new set of points as the window advances (click to expand): That was in a year when he finished .276/.320/.477. I've done these before and he is not unique. You could do one for Betts right now that would show the same kind of volatility. That's baseball and all players go through this.
It's the long game, not a sample of ten, that matters.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 26, 2021 15:46:13 GMT -5
Meanwhile, Dalbec has been hitting... just not home runs. That is SO weird to me. Gotta think they're coming soon. Maybe he traded power for contact - his K rate has been dropping and is approaching 30%. Which brings up the question of which Dalbec we prefer I suppose!
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Apr 26, 2021 15:53:07 GMT -5
Jesus... I knew CV had slumped, but looking at his season... it is basically a few massive early games keeping his stats from being brutal. Last 10 games, .139/.205/.344. Yikes. Whatever is wrong with Verdugo better be brief and better not linger. The Sox absolutely cannot afford not to have Verdugo, JDM, X, and Devers in the lineup. They are going to have to carry them. No they won't. You're navel gazing in the extreme. You need to step back and appreciate what a typical season looks like for those stats. Here's Vazquez' 2019 season, run with an 11-point moving window - the stats are re-computed over the new set of points as the window advances (click to expand): That was in a year when he finished .276/.320/.477. I've done these before and he is not unique. You could do one for Betts right now that would show the same kind of volatility. That's baseball and all players go through this.
It's the long game, not a sample of ten, that matters.
I am not saying Vasquez is going to hit like this the rest of the year. I am saying there is a massive gap between the four guys I listed and everyone else, such that whoever on the roster is next man up to those four is a drop off the cliff. Where I will agree what I said is deceptively narrow is most contending teams can probably say much the same thing... who could afford to lose from their four best guys? But the strange thing this season for the Sox is that even building for depth, their player depth seems taxed already.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Apr 26, 2021 16:56:51 GMT -5
Verdugo slumped at the end of last year, just as Vazquez was picking it up again. Martinez was down all of last season. It's not a matter of "affording". This happens every season and to all players. What's needed is depth, across the lineup and on the bench.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Apr 26, 2021 17:50:30 GMT -5
Verdugo slumped at the end of last year, just as Vazquez was picking it up again. Martinez was down all of last season. It's not a matter of "affording". This happens every season and to all players. What's needed is depth, across the lineup and on the bench. Agree there. Problem is there really isn't much of anything on the bench per see, other than gonzalez due to inefficiencies on half the BP and being forced to carry 9 there. If could add someone.. Say Chavis who was a legit threat to the bench it would be a terrific upgrade.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 26, 2021 18:31:15 GMT -5
In 158 plate appearances last year, Chavis hit .212/.259/.377 with 50 strikeouts and 8 walks. He also doesn't have a defensive position.
I agree the bench needs to add someone in lieu of a ninth reliever, but there are several better options internally. I'm being harsher than typical but it's not clear to me what Chavis offers. He needs to earn his way back.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Apr 26, 2021 19:05:05 GMT -5
In 158 plate appearances last year, Chavis hit .212/.259/.377 with 50 strikeouts and 8 walks. He also doesn't have a defensive position. I agree the bench needs to add someone in lieu of a ninth reliever, but there are several better options internally. I'm being harsher than typical but it's not clear to me what Chavis offers. He needs to earn his way back. Can sort of go by ST. yes, it's not an all encompassing tell all, then what is at AAA? Chavis can play 1b,2b,3b and some LF and it's not like ST doesn't, nor hasn't decided who makes a team or not. That argument is pretty moot.
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