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5/7-5/10 Red Sox @ Orioles Thread
ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on May 10, 2021 14:15:12 GMT -5
So what I was really saying was that I have never seen a player with his ability to hit tough pitches in the zone so freaking hard. Think about how useful that is with two strikes. I compared Devers at one point around the time he came up to Gary Sheffield. They both had hands so quick and such good hand-eye coordination that they were able to take those violent swings and just totally punish even good pitches. And I just realized that I'm multiplying "hit tool" by usable power. Plenty of guys have been as impressive for making you say, how did he hit that pitch? Pedey more so, I think. But by its very nature, that skill tends not to correlate with annihilating the baseball. I can't ever remember thinking Boggs was destroying pitches. Manny comes the closest, but Manny had a huge complementary tool in his savant-smarts. I mean, no one has quite yet claimed that Devers is taking intentionally bad swings to set the pitcher up!
Manny was a delight to watch because he seemed to be in control of every PA. He always projected "I know what you're trying to do here." Devers is just ... "I can hit any strike you throw me." I can't recall Manny looking bad on a pitch and then talking to himself and then killing the same pitch two pitches later in the same PA, which Raffy does so often.
The thing is, those episodes strongly suggest innate smarts. He seems to be learning how to hit pitchers on the fly. We don't know how much film he's watching, but translating film study into usable information is probably a skill of its own. Imagine if he gets to the point where Papi can teach him how to study and use film like he did.
It comes back to his ability to hit tough strikes anywhere in the zone incredibly hard. That's where he has no rival in any hitter I've seen a lot of. And it goes back to the Chapman homer. You might remember my discovery that Chapman had thrown 100 pitches exactly into that zone (top 3rd, middle) against LHP and only one had been hit to the outfield. And Raffy hit the hardest homer Chapman had ever given up, to anyone. That wasn't a fluke. That was a harbinger.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 10, 2021 14:19:18 GMT -5
Given that:
1) Optimal lineup construction doesn't matter very much if you assume players are all robots 2) Players are not robots, they are human beings and the lineup is a lever that can be used for managing human beings. This process is not legible from the outside.
We can conclude that the Enlightened Fan's approach to lineup criticism is to shrug and root for the home team to score some runs.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,977
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Post by jimoh on May 10, 2021 14:33:18 GMT -5
I haven’t been following the team super closely, but is there a reason Verdugo isn’t hitting lead off (followed by Bogaerts/Martinez/Devers in whatever order you like)? I think the sense is they don't want any of Bogaerts/Martinez/Devers (or Vasquez) hitting second, they certainly do not want the lefties hitting back to back, and Cora seemed to think he could get Hernandez to up his game by batting him leadoff.
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,495
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Post by shagworthy on May 10, 2021 14:38:29 GMT -5
My wife gardens, but she prefers flowers to vegetables. I have a brown thumb most of the time, but I sometimes plant various hot peppers with success. That Trader Joe's is always so packed I tend to only go there early in the mornings mid week if I have a hankering for one of their specialties. I have become a grocery store snob since we moved down here 7 years ago, I love the consistent layout at Ingles where everything is in a logical location. When I'm back home in Connecticut I cannot stand Stop and Shop anymore and dread having to go and get anything there. OK, I have to ask - where in Connecticut? We're refugees from the Nutmeg/Pothole state, as well - over in Chapel Hill right now, but if one of the job offers I'm working on comes through it'll be down to SC soon. btw, if you folks are BBQ fiends, 12 Bones in Arden or Asheville (and the full rack with the brown sugar rub) is to die for. Bristol/Berlin/New Britain mainly is where I grew up, but I also moonlighted in East Hampton and Barkhamsted. We've had 12 Bones a lot and we like them pretty good, the best BBQ I ever had was a place outside Morganton, NC, JD's Barbecue, their brisket is to die for.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,926
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Post by ericmvan on May 10, 2021 14:56:54 GMT -5
I havenât been following the team super closely, but is there a reason Verdugo isnât hitting lead off (followed by Bogaerts/Martinez/Devers in whatever order you like)? I think we've talked about this a little.
(We've also instituted a convention where italics mean sarcasm, because people were missing it so often.)
Short version, according to me -- Verdugo, like Benny before him, hit poorly in the first PA of the game. That appears to be its own skill. So if none of your potential leadoff guys have that skill, find someone who does and bat him leadoff, and bat the usual 1-4 guys 2 through 5. After the first inning, the leadoff guy functions as the #9 hitter.
Last time I looked it was working ... time to check gain!
.248 / .310 / .399 First batter of game, MLB .273 / .314 / .424 Sox (11th in MLB, 4th in AL) .267 / .333 / .445 Sox overall, so the extra PA given to the designated game-starter is replacing a better PA, which wasn't the case last time I looked. .308 / .333 / .462 Kiké leading off the game (27 times), so that's absolutely working. Arroyo was 1/4, BB, 2B, so that was even better.
It's the 3 games since Kiké went on the IL that have dragged the numbers down. Gonzalez (twice) and Chavis are 0/3, with 2 K's and a popup.
It's too soon to say whether Kiké really has this skill (but it seems as if they thought he might and had him work on it) and even more so, that Arroyo does, but he was clearly their designated alternative. Now that both guys are hurt, they might think about going back to a conventional lineup for the interim.
Devers has great numbers in his career leading off the inning (Xander is the opposite), and he seems to be the sort of guy who doesn't benefit much from seeing how a pitcher is working his teammates. Devers, JDM, X, Verdugo ... crazy, but it may be the best lineup as long as both guys are out.
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Post by Guidas on May 10, 2021 15:12:09 GMT -5
Some of the peeps are talking tools, some skills. In my life's viewing, I can only think of 6 that I'd grade as 80 hit tools and Raffy isn't close, 60-65 maybe. Williams, Bonds, Boggs, Gwynn, Carew, Brett. That's it for me. Trout.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on May 10, 2021 15:20:09 GMT -5
Some of the peeps are talking tools, some skills. In my life's viewing, I can only think of 6 that I'd grade as 80 hit tools and Raffy isn't close, 60-65 maybe. Williams, Bonds, Boggs, Gwynn, Carew, Brett. That's it for me. Trout. I can't think of a world where Griffey isn't a part of this conversation. I get he only had a .284 career average but that swing though.
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Post by ematz1423 on May 10, 2021 15:23:34 GMT -5
I can't think of a world where Griffey isn't a part of this conversation. I get he only had a .284 career average but that swing though. Ichiro has got to be up there on the list somewhere.
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shagworthy
Veteran
My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,495
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Post by shagworthy on May 10, 2021 15:51:52 GMT -5
I can't think of a world where Griffey isn't a part of this conversation. I get he only had a .284 career average but that swing though. Ichiro has got to be up there on the list somewhere. I think Ichiro gets penalized unduly for his unorthodox approach/swing, but that dude could pretty much hit anything pitched anywhere.
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Post by Guidas on May 10, 2021 16:28:25 GMT -5
Ichiro has got to be up there on the list somewhere. I think Ichiro gets penalized unduly for his unorthodox approach/swing, but that dude could pretty much hit anything pitched anywhere. Ditto Vlady G.
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Post by Guidas on May 10, 2021 16:30:28 GMT -5
So, is it me or is Cora saying here: "Don't believe the statheads..." Offensively, there’s more,” Cora said. “We know that. It’s one of those where you look at the numbers and you’re like, ‘Oh, he’s quote unquote struggling.’ But if you just see the game, you’re like, ‘No, he’s putting good at-bats, working counts, grinding at-bats." That said, I always wondered what the value would be of a replacement-level player who had a talent for fouling off pitches and seeing 8-10 pitches per AB on average, but was still completely replacement level in every other respect. www.masslive.com/redsox/2021/05/boston-red-sox-lineup-marwin-gonzalez-leading-off-despite-stats-hes-working-counts-grinding-at-bats.html
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Post by Guidas on May 10, 2021 16:32:13 GMT -5
OK, I have to ask - where in Connecticut? We're refugees from the Nutmeg/Pothole state, as well - over in Chapel Hill right now, but if one of the job offers I'm working on comes through it'll be down to SC soon. btw, if you folks are BBQ fiends, 12 Bones in Arden or Asheville (and the full rack with the brown sugar rub) is to die for. Bristol/Berlin/New Britain mainly is where I grew up, but I also moonlighted in East Hampton and Barkhamsted. We've had 12 Bones a lot and we like them pretty good, the best BBQ I ever had was a place outside Morganton, NC, JD's Barbecue, their brisket is to die for. JD's is now on the list. The brisket at Hillsboro BBQ is top shelf if you ever get out that way. Best I've had this side of Texas is Lewis BBQ in Charleston, SC. AND they have 1lb beef ribs on Saturdays til they sell out.
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Post by southernredsoxality on May 10, 2021 16:49:06 GMT -5
I can't think of a world where Griffey isn't a part of this conversation. I get he only had a .284 career average but that swing though. I wouldn't put either Bonds nor Griffey on that list. Ichiro would definitely have to be on there, and how do you not include Nomar? Guys like Vlad, Manny, Pujols, Miggy, Piazza, Frank Thomas all had better hit tools than Bonds and Griffey imo. I would even put Larry Walker in there also, that dude used to rake in his prime even on the road. Moises Alou also comes to mind.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 10, 2021 17:34:51 GMT -5
Given that: 1) Optimal lineup construction doesn't matter very much if you assume players are all robots 2) Players are not robots, they are human beings and the lineup is a lever that can be used for managing human beings. This process is not legible from the outside. We can conclude that the Enlightened Fan's approach to lineup criticism is to shrug and root for the home team to score some runs. Obviously the people posting do not have any say in the batting order! They just enjoy discussing what might be a more optimal way of drawing up the lineup card. Like you said humans are not robots, and we do not know individual personalities and how lineup position affects thought process. I liked leading off when I played as I did not like slow players clogging up the base paths. I always took the extra base and was nearly always successful. Other players psychologically do not like leading off.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 10, 2021 17:54:03 GMT -5
I havenât been following the team super closely, but is there a reason Verdugo isnât hitting lead off (followed by Bogaerts/Martinez/Devers in whatever order you like)? I think we've talked about this a little.
(We've also instituted a convention where italics mean sarcasm, because people were missing it so often.)
Short version, according to me -- Verdugo, like Benny before him, hit poorly in the first PA of the game. That appears to be its own skill. So if none of your potential leadoff guys have that skill, find someone who does and bat him leadoff, and bat the usual 1-4 guys 2 through 5. After the first inning, the leadoff guy functions as the #9 hitter. Last time I looked it was working ... time to check gain! .248 / .310 / .399 First batter of game, MLB .273 / .314 / .424 Sox (11th in MLB, 4th in AL) .267 / .333 / .445 Sox overall, so the extra PA given to the designated game-starter is replacing a better PA, which wasn't the case last time I looked. .308 / .333 / .462 Kiké leading off the game (27 times), so that's absolutely working. Arroyo was 1/4, BB, 2B, so that was even better.
It's the 3 games since Kiké went on the IL that have dragged the numbers down. Gonzalez (twice) and Chavis are 0/3, with 2 K's and a popup. It's too soon to say whether Kiké really has this skill (but it seems as if they thought he might and had him work on it) and even more so, that Arroyo does, but he was clearly their designated alternative. Now that both guys are hurt, they might think about going back to a conventional lineup for the interim.
Devers has great numbers in his career leading off the inning (Xander is the opposite), and he seems to be the sort of guy who doesn't benefit much from seeing how a pitcher is working his teammates. Devers, JDM, X, Verdugo ... crazy, but it may be the best lineup as long as both guys are out.
Duran placeholders.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,794
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Post by nomar on May 10, 2021 18:29:09 GMT -5
Perez getting hit hard
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Post by voiceofreason on May 10, 2021 18:44:16 GMT -5
The names that come up in this thread as being great is great. How about Adrian Beltre as a guy who could barrel up anything and that is ala Devers. Don't forget Devers is just getting started also, who knows where he goes. Many great hitters had their best years very young and never actually got any better, A Rod for example had arguably his best year at the age of 21, Beltre at 25. So we can't really expect Devers will end up being much better than he has been, which is certainly ok.
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Post by Guidas on May 10, 2021 18:47:15 GMT -5
They seem to be in full getaway day mode tonight. Swinging away at anyghing.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,794
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Post by nomar on May 10, 2021 18:59:27 GMT -5
Wow Bogaerts almost lost his manhood there
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Post by redsoxfan2 on May 10, 2021 19:17:51 GMT -5
Franchy should not be in the majors. He's awful.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on May 10, 2021 19:21:48 GMT -5
That feels like the game right there.
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Post by Guidas on May 10, 2021 19:21:53 GMT -5
Squander. Gross.
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Post by voiceofreason on May 10, 2021 19:26:12 GMT -5
To read the thread you would think the Sox were down 5 and it is a tied game at 1-1. Come on people, optimism beats out negativity all day long!!
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Post by incandenza on May 10, 2021 19:27:08 GMT -5
That feels like the game right there. It's 1-1 in the 5th and they're playing the Orioles.
The Baltimore Orioles.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 10,794
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Post by nomar on May 10, 2021 19:27:28 GMT -5
Franchy should not be in the majors. He's awful. Its icehorse season
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