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5/25/-5/26 Red Sox vs. Braves Series Thread
nomar
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Post by nomar on May 26, 2021 6:59:03 GMT -5
I'm not sure where one would go to look this up, but it feels like strikeouts are up an awful lot this year. Not just for the Sox but for all of baseball. 2019: 23% 2020: 23.4% 2021: 24.1%
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on May 26, 2021 8:08:05 GMT -5
I hate that man like poison Nice single you obese turd Sandoval admitted he let himself get out of shape after signing the $95 million contract. Their should be some performance clause that if they do not perform to a certain level they have to give back part of the money. Wishful thinking..... The answer is shorter contracts. How stupid was 13 year $325 million....
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Post by patford on May 26, 2021 8:34:30 GMT -5
Nothing would improve the game more. It's not talked about more because...Yankees.
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TearsIn04
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Everybody knows Nelson de la Rosa, but who is Karim Garcia?
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Post by TearsIn04 on May 26, 2021 8:54:38 GMT -5
Richards is trailing Jordan Lyles for worst WHIP in the AL. Rough. I would share your concern if he were being asked to do more, but as the #4 (#3?) starter I'm fine with the Cardiac Kid keeping the team in ballgames despite how he does it. My first reax was that his season WHIP was probably high because of his bad start. But that's really not true. It was 1.61 in April and a still-way-too-high 1.42 in May. His ERA declined dramatically from 4.94 in April in 2.97 in May. His strand rate was 69 percent in April and is up to 79.3 percent in May. It's hard to see him continuing to put up a 3 ERA with that much traffic.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2021 9:02:38 GMT -5
The millionaires who should be billionaires analogy is perfect. If they want to get to the next level in terms of winning a division/going to a World Series they have to maximize their strengths and minimize the self-inflicted errors. Swinging outside the zone wildly is one of the latter. One of the reasons that Tampa has been winning the last few years is good pitching combined with a sort of “Patriot Way” approach where they minimize their mistakes, maximize the opportunities when they come and wait for the other team to make mistakes or fail with RISP. this team is not good enough offensively after the top four to just be cavalier at the plate. If they were more stacked from one through nine, they might be able to carry this through, but you can’t do that with a bunch of .280 OBP guys making up the bulk of your line-up. it may work against the Orioles and the Tigers, but it likely won’t work against Tampa, New York, Toronto and Houston. it’s frustrating to watch, because it’s sloppy and completely self-inflicted laziness at the plate, and its cost them between three and five games already this year. I'm not sure how to do this for teams, but the Swing/Take leaderboard for Red Sox hitters is interesting: baseballsavant.mlb.com/swing-take?year=2021&team=BOS&group=Batter&type=All&sub_type=null&min=25They're all doing fine (save for Chavis, frankly, who is the one guy who I'd agree is out of control in the number of pitches outside of the zone he's chasing) on Chase and Waste pitches, but in the Shadow, Bogaerts is the only player with a significantly positive run contribution (top 10 in baseball), and in the heart of the plate, only JDM, Devers, Verdugo, and Renfroe have positive figures. BUT, that's not as bad as it sounds - just 100 qualified hitters are positive in the heart of the plate and just 34 are positive in the shadow (think "pitcher's pitch"). My takeaway is this - this isn't a situation where the team is out of control swinging at pitches way out of the zone. Where they're getting beat, it's on pitches that are at least close, and I think your issue might be one of context - as I said above, this is baseball now, like it or not! Renfroe is really the only one in the bottom tier of hitters on pitches in the Shadow, eyeballing it, which also seems to square with what we're all seeing about what he's done at the plate. And if I can just add, the "sloppy and completely self-inflicted laziness" piece is kind of takey hyperbole. They might be overaggressive but it's not like they're going up to the plate and saying "screw it I'm swinging no matter where the pitch is and I don't even care if I hit it." They're not filling up the bottom of the leaderboard on pitches outside of the zone in terms of results. They're swinging more but they're also hitting them more than a lot of the league, and again, I'm not certain changing approach wouldn't also take away some of the success they're having on the swings. As for ".280 OBP guys", the only guys who fit that are Cordero, Renfroe, and Dalbec. At this point, Cordero is on the bench - seems clear that Santana has mostly pushed him to the bench, and I'm interested to see how Cordero/Renfroe works going forward. Dalbec... I honestly don't know what to do there.
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Post by manfred on May 26, 2021 9:14:47 GMT -5
The millionaires who should be billionaires analogy is perfect. If they want to get to the next level in terms of winning a division/going to a World Series they have to maximize their strengths and minimize the self-inflicted errors. Swinging outside the zone wildly is one of the latter. One of the reasons that Tampa has been winning the last few years is good pitching combined with a sort of “Patriot Way” approach where they minimize their mistakes, maximize the opportunities when they come and wait for the other team to make mistakes or fail with RISP. this team is not good enough offensively after the top four to just be cavalier at the plate. If they were more stacked from one through nine, they might be able to carry this through, but you can’t do that with a bunch of .280 OBP guys making up the bulk of your line-up. it may work against the Orioles and the Tigers, but it likely won’t work against Tampa, New York, Toronto and Houston. it’s frustrating to watch, because it’s sloppy and completely self-inflicted laziness at the plate, and its cost them between three and five games already this year. I'm not sure how to do this for teams, but the Swing/Take leaderboard for Red Sox hitters is interesting: baseballsavant.mlb.com/swing-take?year=2021&team=BOS&group=Batter&type=All&sub_type=null&min=25They're all doing fine (save for Chavis, frankly, who is the one guy who I'd agree is out of control in the number of pitches outside of the zone he's chasing) on Chase and Waste pitches, but in the Shadow, Bogaerts is the only player with a significantly positive run contribution (top 10 in baseball), and in the heart of the plate, only JDM, Devers, Verdugo, and Renfroe have positive figures. BUT, that's not as bad as it sounds - just 100 qualified hitters are positive in the heart of the plate and just 34 are positive in the shadow (think "pitcher's pitch"). My takeaway is this - this isn't a situation where the team is out of control swinging at pitches way out of the zone. Where they're getting beat, it's on pitches that are at least close, and I think your issue might be one of context - as I said above, this is baseball now, like it or not! Renfroe is really the only one in the bottom tier of hitters on pitches in the Shadow, eyeballing it, which also seems to square with what we're all seeing about what he's done at the plate. And if I can just add, the "sloppy and completely self-inflicted laziness" piece is kind of takey hyperbole. They might be overaggressive but it's not like they're going up to the plate and saying "screw it I'm swinging no matter where the pitch is and I don't even care if I hit it." They're not filling up the bottom of the leaderboard on pitches outside of the zone in terms of results. They're swinging more but they're also hitting them more than a lot of the league, and again, I'm not certain changing approach wouldn't also take away some of the success they're having on the swings. As for ".280 OBP guys", the only guys who fit that are Cordero, Renfroe, and Dalbec. At this point, Cordero is on the bench - seems clear that Santana has mostly pushed him to the bench, and I'm interested to see how Cordero/Renfroe works going forward. Dalbec... I honestly don't know what to do there. The OBP issue is interesting. Collectively, they are third in the AL! So whatever we might feel about it, baserunners hasn’t been a (relative) issue in aggregate. But, that league average is .311. Oooff. And of the starters, not surprisingly only JDM, X, Verdugo, and Devers are more than .005 above average. Kiké is at .314. But after that... all sub-.300. (Santana is a wait’n’see. He is at exactly .300 for his career). So it does return to the same ol, same ol: the top four guys have both to get on AND drive themselves in.
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Post by incandenza on May 26, 2021 9:54:32 GMT -5
I was wondering how the Sox' top-heaviness compares to other teams', so here are the wRC+'s of whoever are the bottom 4 amongst the 9 guys with the most PAs (in other words, the bottom of the lineup guys, more or less) for the more competitive AL teams: BOS: 81, 76, 67, 63 (Vazquez, Dalbec, Renfroe, and Marwin, respectively) NYY: 85, 82, 80, 58 TOR: 79, 71, 51, 29 TBR: 106, 90, 77, 63 CHW: 108, 105, 91, 58 HOU: 113, 113, 69, 52 OAK: 104, 96, 83, 35 LAA: 88, 71, 69, 61 CLE: 86,70, 66, 45
They're just a tick behind the Yankees and ahead of the Blue Jays by this measure. They're actually tied for the best ninth-best hitter (if that's not a horribly confusing way to put it), but they're weak in the other positions. (Bear in mind I'm leaving off the bad teams; I'd say the Red Sox bottom of the order is middle of the pack in the AL overall, probably 7th or 8th best.)
I'm not sure if Santana will *quite* be able to keep up his 205 wRC+, but if he can be at least an average hitter and take ABs away from Renfroe (against righties) and Marwin, and Dalbec can be more like the 144 guy he's been since 5/7, that would go a long way.
I wonder if Vazquez is one of the guys who gets hurt a lot by the deader ball. The 2019/2020 juiced ball seemed to be just enough for a lot of his fly balls to leave the yard, but this season he's back to something more like his pre-2019 ISO.
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Post by Guidas on May 26, 2021 13:29:07 GMT -5
The millionaires who should be billionaires analogy is perfect. If they want to get to the next level in terms of winning a division/going to a World Series they have to maximize their strengths and minimize the self-inflicted errors. Swinging outside the zone wildly is one of the latter. One of the reasons that Tampa has been winning the last few years is good pitching combined with a sort of “Patriot Way” approach where they minimize their mistakes, maximize the opportunities when they come and wait for the other team to make mistakes or fail with RISP. this team is not good enough offensively after the top four to just be cavalier at the plate. If they were more stacked from one through nine, they might be able to carry this through, but you can’t do that with a bunch of .280 OBP guys making up the bulk of your line-up. it may work against the Orioles and the Tigers, but it likely won’t work against Tampa, New York, Toronto and Houston. it’s frustrating to watch, because it’s sloppy and completely self-inflicted laziness at the plate, and its cost them between three and five games already this year. I'm not sure how to do this for teams, but the Swing/Take leaderboard for Red Sox hitters is interesting: baseballsavant.mlb.com/swing-take?year=2021&team=BOS&group=Batter&type=All&sub_type=null&min=25They're all doing fine (save for Chavis, frankly, who is the one guy who I'd agree is out of control in the number of pitches outside of the zone he's chasing) on Chase and Waste pitches, but in the Shadow, Bogaerts is the only player with a significantly positive run contribution (top 10 in baseball), and in the heart of the plate, only JDM, Devers, Verdugo, and Renfroe have positive figures. BUT, that's not as bad as it sounds - just 100 qualified hitters are positive in the heart of the plate and just 34 are positive in the shadow (think "pitcher's pitch"). My takeaway is this - this isn't a situation where the team is out of control swinging at pitches way out of the zone. Where they're getting beat, it's on pitches that are at least close, and I think your issue might be one of context - as I said above, this is baseball now, like it or not! Renfroe is really the only one in the bottom tier of hitters on pitches in the Shadow, eyeballing it, which also seems to square with what we're all seeing about what he's done at the plate. And if I can just add, the "sloppy and completely self-inflicted laziness" piece is kind of takey hyperbole. They might be overaggressive but it's not like they're going up to the plate and saying "screw it I'm swinging no matter where the pitch is and I don't even care if I hit it." They're not filling up the bottom of the leaderboard on pitches outside of the zone in terms of results. They're swinging more but they're also hitting them more than a lot of the league, and again, I'm not certain changing approach wouldn't also take away some of the success they're having on the swings. As for ".280 OBP guys", the only guys who fit that are Cordero, Renfroe, and Dalbec. At this point, Cordero is on the bench - seems clear that Santana has mostly pushed him to the bench, and I'm interested to see how Cordero/Renfroe works going forward. Dalbec... I honestly don't know what to do there. Point taken. When I said sloppy and self-inflicted laziness, my mental contrast was the winning teams of the past (2004-2010, 2013, 2016-18) that seemed just as happy to take a walk ask you to hit. With the emphasis now on the long ball, it seems like one of the true outcomes, the walk seems like it’s being minimized in the quest for the home run. I haven’t had a chance today to check the stats on that today, but, at least to the eye, it seems like there’s a lot more chasing going on. I am one of those who strongly believes that Robo arms behind the plate would fix this to a large degree, because everybody would know where the strike zone is from beginning of the game to the end, no matter which picture was on the mound, or the situation of the game at the time, or whether the picture on the mound had burned certain calls. I am hoping this comes through in the next CVA, but when you have guys like Joe west marking Anniversaries as having called the most games, I am not hopeful. I also know I am not the one standing in the box, but often I see guys swinging at pitches that weren’t strikes from the time the ball left the pitcher’s hand until it hit the mitt. Also, my brain keeps going back to when I played, which was up to my first year in college, and the demands of plate discipline all the way through. The only people who could get away with not having that were the superstars, and I’m sure it caught up to them, as no one ever played against made it past AA.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 26, 2021 13:57:01 GMT -5
The biggest surprise for me this season is the disparate home and road record. On the one hand, it is comforting to have banked those road wins already. If this team can end the season .500 or above on the road, it really helps to get to 90 wins, if combined with a home record that we normally expect from the club (50 or so). Look forward to a long home win streak soon.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on May 26, 2021 14:14:12 GMT -5
The biggest surprise for me this season is the disparate home and road record. On the one hand, it is comforting to have banked those road wins already. If this team can end the season .500 or above on the road, it really helps to get to 90 wins, if combined with a home record that we normally expect from the club (50 or so). Look forward to a long home win streak soon. They haven't been good at home since 2018 when they were great everywhere. In 2019 they had trouble winning home games. In 2020 they had trouble winning games, period. And this year has been similar to 2019, a baffling inability to win at home. One thing that might be a factor is their 29th best out 30 teams OPS of .550 or thereabouts when they have a runner on 3b with one out. They don't do a good job of cashing in runs and at home they play close games and lose, probably when they fail to cash in runs that they shouldn't fail at. Last night was an example of this. I hope they have a long home winning streak in them, but it has been 3 years now.....if they want to stay in this race going forward I think they're going to have to start playing better at home. Hard to see them continue to be such road warriors, especially when they go into NY or TB or the better teams in the league, like Oakland, Chicago, etc.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2021 14:27:21 GMT -5
I also know I am not the one standing in the box, but often I see guys swinging at pitches that weren’t strikes from the time the ball left the pitcher’s hand until it hit the mitt. Also, my brain keeps going back to when I played, which was up to my first year in college, and the demands of plate discipline all the way through. The only people who could get away with not having that were the superstars, and I’m sure it caught up to them, as no one ever played against made it past AA. Just to put it simply, I think this part of your post (and more generally, of your point) drastically underestimates how hard it is to hit a baseball thrown by a major league-quality pitcher. Like, just go watch some Pitching Ninja gifs. It's insane that anyone ever makes contact. Based on the metrics, I feel like the only guy in the lineup who you can really say is extreme as far as chasing is Chavis. He literally can't lay off pitches out of the zone even when everyone in the park knows they're coming. Everyone else is kind of in the realm of a standard deviation, or at least it seems eyeballing the numbers. Seriously, don't be that guy who calls into WEEI talking about how when he was in high school his coach taught him blah blah blah and the Red Sox need to do that too. Like I said, I think you're watching the game expecting one thing and that's just not what MLB is right now.
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Post by ajs1994 on May 26, 2021 15:08:26 GMT -5
Point taken. When I said sloppy and self-inflicted laziness, my mental contrast was the winning teams of the past (2004-2010, 2013, 2016-18) that seemed just as happy to take a walk ask you to hit. With the emphasis now on the long ball, it seems like one of the true outcomes, the walk seems like it’s being minimized in the quest for the home run. I haven’t had a chance today to check the stats on that today, but, at least to the eye, it seems like there’s a lot more chasing going on. I am one of those who strongly believes that Robo arms behind the plate would fix this to a large degree, because everybody would know where the strike zone is from beginning of the game to the end, no matter which picture was on the mound, or the situation of the game at the time, or whether the picture on the mound had burned certain calls. I am hoping this comes through in the next CVA, but when you have guys like Joe west marking Anniversaries as having called the most games, I am not hopeful. I also know I am not the one standing in the box, but often I see guys swinging at pitches that weren’t strikes from the time the ball left the pitcher’s hand until it hit the mitt. Also, my brain keeps going back to when I played, which was up to my first year in college, and the demands of plate discipline all the way through. The only people who could get away with not having that were the superstars, and I’m sure it caught up to them, as no one ever played against made it past AA. Edited because I was looking at the wrong data, so this whole post is moot.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2021 15:32:38 GMT -5
Point taken. When I said sloppy and self-inflicted laziness, my mental contrast was the winning teams of the past (2004-2010, 2013, 2016-18) that seemed just as happy to take a walk ask you to hit. With the emphasis now on the long ball, it seems like one of the true outcomes, the walk seems like it’s being minimized in the quest for the home run. I haven’t had a chance today to check the stats on that today, but, at least to the eye, it seems like there’s a lot more chasing going on. I am one of those who strongly believes that Robo arms behind the plate would fix this to a large degree, because everybody would know where the strike zone is from beginning of the game to the end, no matter which picture was on the mound, or the situation of the game at the time, or whether the picture on the mound had burned certain calls. I am hoping this comes through in the next CVA, but when you have guys like Joe west marking Anniversaries as having called the most games, I am not hopeful. I also know I am not the one standing in the box, but often I see guys swinging at pitches that weren’t strikes from the time the ball left the pitcher’s hand until it hit the mitt. Also, my brain keeps going back to when I played, which was up to my first year in college, and the demands of plate discipline all the way through. The only people who could get away with not having that were the superstars, and I’m sure it caught up to them, as no one ever played against made it past AA. The Sox out of zone swing % per Fangraphs is 29.7% this year, which is actually 5th lowest in baseball. Interestingly, doesn't seem to be much correlation between this % and team offensive production - Rockies are the best at 25% and have the worst offense in baseball, White Sox are 4th highest and have one of the best offenses in baseball. If i had a bit more time, I would try to find out exactly what the correlation is. Contextually, 2018 Red Sox had 11th highest oswing%, 2017 3rd highest, 2016 middle of the pack (15th), 2013 20th. Didn't look further back than that. I think it's definitely a league-wide trend more than anything else. Pitchers are throwing fastballs less than ever, and using the Trackman and spin rate type data to optimize their arsenal. Combined with the shorter outings, higher velocities, hitting is only getting more difficult. Additionally, league average O swing % hasn't changed nearly as much as overall contact rates over the years. I don't think the Red Sox (or league-wide) issue is nearly as much as erosion of plate discipline, but pitching is has gotten more sophisticated, and combined with hitters swinging for the fences more, leading to less contact. I think there has to be some kind of rule change on the way as Theo has talked about. I'm not sure what you're looking at, but their O-Swing is 35.1%, highest in baseball: Link
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Post by ajs1994 on May 26, 2021 15:43:21 GMT -5
The Sox out of zone swing % per Fangraphs is 29.7% this year, which is actually 5th lowest in baseball. Interestingly, doesn't seem to be much correlation between this % and team offensive production - Rockies are the best at 25% and have the worst offense in baseball, White Sox are 4th highest and have one of the best offenses in baseball. If i had a bit more time, I would try to find out exactly what the correlation is. Contextually, 2018 Red Sox had 11th highest oswing%, 2017 3rd highest, 2016 middle of the pack (15th), 2013 20th. Didn't look further back than that. I think it's definitely a league-wide trend more than anything else. Pitchers are throwing fastballs less than ever, and using the Trackman and spin rate type data to optimize their arsenal. Combined with the shorter outings, higher velocities, hitting is only getting more difficult. Additionally, league average O swing % hasn't changed nearly as much as overall contact rates over the years. I don't think the Red Sox (or league-wide) issue is nearly as much as erosion of plate discipline, but pitching is has gotten more sophisticated, and combined with hitters swinging for the fences more, leading to less contact. I think there has to be some kind of rule change on the way as Theo has talked about. I'm not sure what you're looking at, but their O-Swing is 35.1%, highest in baseball: LinkHa thanks, disregard my whole post - was looking at pitching. Everything makes more sense now, no wonder why there was no correlation between pitching oswing% and hitting production.
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Post by Guidas on May 26, 2021 15:54:51 GMT -5
I also know I am not the one standing in the box, but often I see guys swinging at pitches that weren’t strikes from the time the ball left the pitcher’s hand until it hit the mitt. Also, my brain keeps going back to when I played, which was up to my first year in college, and the demands of plate discipline all the way through. The only people who could get away with not having that were the superstars, and I’m sure it caught up to them, as no one ever played against made it past AA. Just to put it simply, I think this part of your post (and more generally, of your point) drastically underestimates how hard it is to hit a baseball thrown by a major league-quality pitcher. Like, just go watch some Pitching Ninja gifs. It's insane that anyone ever makes contact. Based on the metrics, I feel like the only guy in the lineup who you can really say is extreme as far as chasing is Chavis. He literally can't lay off pitches out of the zone even when everyone in the park knows they're coming. Everyone else is kind of in the realm of a standard deviation, or at least it seems eyeballing the numbers. Seriously, don't be that guy who calls into WEEI talking about how when he was in high school his coach taught him blah blah blah and the Red Sox need to do that too. Like I said, I think you're watching the game expecting one thing and that's just not what MLB is right now. Seriously I did play 1 year of college ball (and was crap) so I am well aware of - and in awe of - hitters’ abilities versus elite pitching.Yet, every night, hundreds of MLB players make contact and layoff pitches we never could. Using their rubric as my framework, not ours.
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Post by Guidas on May 26, 2021 15:55:59 GMT -5
Line-up:
1. Kiké Hernández CF
2. Alex Verdugo LF
3. J.D. Martinez DH
4. Xander Bogaerts SS
5. Rafael Devers 3B
6. Hunter Renfroe RF
7. Bobby Dalbec 1B
8. Christian Vázquez C
9. Christian Arroyo 2B
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shagworthy
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My neckbeard game is on point.
Posts: 1,602
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Post by shagworthy on May 26, 2021 16:59:18 GMT -5
Line-up: 1. Kiké Hernández CF 2. Alex Verdugo LF 3. J.D. Martinez DH 4. Xander Bogaerts SS 5. Rafael Devers 3B 6. Hunter Renfroe RF 7. Bobby Dalbec 1B 8. Christian Vázquez C 9. Christian Arroyo 2B I sort of like this lineup if everyone is firing on all cylinders. There aren't 2-3 almost sure outs in it like it was when it was Renfroe, Dalbec, Franchy bunched together.
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Post by James Dunne on May 26, 2021 17:01:04 GMT -5
I would seriously consider batting Dalbec leadoff against a lefty. It would be a good idea to set things up where he's getting his third PA in (usually) the 5th inning. As far as the logistics of him hitting there, he's not a burner but he's not a baseclogger either and he's pretty smart out there.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,511
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Post by cdj on May 26, 2021 17:07:32 GMT -5
Smyly should have major issues with the lineup they’re rolling out tonight
This seasons next no hitter coming from him now that I said it
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Post by Chris Hatfield on May 26, 2021 17:08:51 GMT -5
Line-up: 1. Kiké Hernández CF 2. Alex Verdugo LF 3. J.D. Martinez DH 4. Xander Bogaerts SS 5. Rafael Devers 3B 6. Hunter Renfroe RF 7. Bobby Dalbec 1B 8. Christian Vázquez C 9. Christian Arroyo 2B I sort of like this lineup if everyone is firing on all cylinders. There aren't 2-3 almost sure outs in it like it was when it was Renfroe, Dalbec, Franchy bunched together. Cora said earlier he moved Renfroe and Dalbec up to get them more at-bats against the LHP.
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Post by incandenza on May 26, 2021 17:42:56 GMT -5
It's frankly a terrifying lineup for a lefty pitcher.
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Post by julyanmorley on May 26, 2021 18:20:44 GMT -5
Rough inning for Renfroe in the field
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Post by Guidas on May 26, 2021 18:40:04 GMT -5
one more hit and we will be on the way to a serious thumping.
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Post by Guidas on May 26, 2021 18:49:42 GMT -5
Nice. Renfroe gets one back.
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Post by manfred on May 26, 2021 18:51:06 GMT -5
Nice. Renfroe gets one back. I’m not expecting 3 runs to do it for the Braves. This game is still there to be had.
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