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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 23, 2021 21:31:32 GMT -5
Hi guys I think Perez and Richards are gunners. Mata is coming back at some point. So I believe rotation will be Sale, Eovaldi, Withlock, Pivetta and Houck. Seabold, Crawford and Mata for remaining spot Unlikely Eduardo is coming back Mata is not coming back next year and even if he did it would be unlikely him cracking the rotation. Not sure if you meant back in any capacity but I'd say Mata will be back pitching next year hopefully by July/August. It'll be in the minors but he'll be back.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 23, 2021 23:06:18 GMT -5
My stab at the '22 rotation is:
Sale ($25m) E-Rod ($16-$18m) Eovaldi ($17m, walk year) Pivetta (arb) Houck (min) Whitlock (min)
Five-man rotation with a sixth to spell guys now and then as Whitlock stretches out (and replaces Eovaldi in '23).
I think E-Rod takes a hometown discount, maybe in the 4/$72m to 5/$80 range. He loves Cora like a second father and he loves the core o' the team (which is remarkably very Latin).
I don't see them picking up Richards's or Perez's options (or Andriese's - remember him?). They didn't even pick up Martin's this off season, bargaining him down after rejecting the option. I think both find better offers elsewhere.
Hope for Seabold to fit into a Whitlock/Houck role and I won't be shocked if Chaim signs/trades for another AAA/MLB swingman that he's had his eye on for a while.
Barnes, Brazier, Bazardo, Taylor, Darwinzon, Sawamura, Valdez form the nucleus of the bullpen.
Worcester rotation to include Winckowski, Bello, Krawford, with some hangers-on from this season, and eventually Groome and perhaps Ward and Mata.
Hard to remember the last time there were so many promising arms in the high minors. Obviously, injuries happen but we can always hope that this year's near-perfect health, particularly in the BOS rotation, is reflective of a successful team training/conditioning strategy.
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Post by alan on Jul 24, 2021 4:42:56 GMT -5
My stab at the '22 rotation is: Sale ($25m) E-Rod ($16-$18m) Eovaldi ($17m, walk year) Pivetta (arb) Houck (min) Whitlock (min) Five-man rotation with a sixth to spell guys now and then as Whitlock stretches out (and replaces Eovaldi in '23). I think E-Rod takes a hometown discount, maybe in the 4/$72m to 5/$80 range. He loves Cora like a second father and he loves the core o' the team (which is remarkably very Latin). I don't see them picking up Richards's or Perez's options (or Andriese's - remember him?). They didn't even pick up Martin's this off season, bargaining him down after rejecting the option. I think both find better offers elsewhere. Hope for Seabold to fit into a Whitlock/Houck role and I won't be shocked if Chaim signs/trades for another AAA/MLB swingman that he's had his eye on for a while. Barnes, Brazier, Bazardo, Taylor, Darwinzon, Sawamura, Valdez form the nucleus of the bullpen. Worcester rotation to include Winckowski, Bello, Krawford, with some hangers-on from this season, and eventually Groome and perhaps Ward and Mata. Hard to remember the last time there were so many promising arms in the high minors. Obviously, injuries happen but we can always hope that this year's near-perfect health, particularly in the BOS rotation, is reflective of a successful team training/conditioning strategy. Unless Houck's starts to throw a third pitch more often I'm not comfortable with him starting long term. Also if Eovaldi continues to pitch well next season I wouldn't be surprised to see Bloom trade him at the deadline, especially if guys like Seabold (or potentially Bello, gotta dream) pitches well in the Minors
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 24, 2021 5:03:58 GMT -5
My stab at the '22 rotation is: Sale ($25m) E-Rod ($16-$18m) Eovaldi ($17m, walk year) Pivetta (arb) Houck (min) Whitlock (min) Five-man rotation with a sixth to spell guys now and then as Whitlock stretches out (and replaces Eovaldi in '23). I think E-Rod takes a hometown discount, maybe in the 4/$72m to 5/$80 range. He loves Cora like a second father and he loves the core o' the team (which is remarkably very Latin). I don't see them picking up Richards's or Perez's options (or Andriese's - remember him?). They didn't even pick up Martin's this off season, bargaining him down after rejecting the option. I think both find better offers elsewhere. Hope for Seabold to fit into a Whitlock/Houck role and I won't be shocked if Chaim signs/trades for another AAA/MLB swingman that he's had his eye on for a while. Barnes, Brazier, Bazardo, Taylor, Darwinzon, Sawamura, Valdez form the nucleus of the bullpen. Worcester rotation to include Winckowski, Bello, Krawford, with some hangers-on from this season, and eventually Groome and perhaps Ward and Mata. Hard to remember the last time there were so many promising arms in the high minors. Obviously, injuries happen but we can always hope that this year's near-perfect health, particularly in the BOS rotation, is reflective of a successful team training/conditioning strategy. Unless Houck's starts to throw a third pitch more often I'm not comfortable with him starting long term. Also if Eovaldi continues to pitch well next season I wouldn't be surprised to see Bloom trade him at the deadline, especially if guys like Seabold (or potentially Bello, gotta dream) pitches well in the Minors Out of curiosity, how many zeroes does Houck need to put up with his present repertoire before you are comfortable? Not meaning to pick on you because that seems to be the general sentiment yet, I'm watching a pitcher totally dominating the opposition going back to last year and continuing now. The Yankees looked helpless except when Houck lost command of his fastballs for a couple of batters then recovered fast. How many hard hit balls did you see ?
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 24, 2021 6:57:16 GMT -5
My stab at the '22 rotation is: Sale ($25m) E-Rod ($16-$18m) Eovaldi ($17m, walk year) Pivetta (arb) Houck (min) Whitlock (min) Five-man rotation with a sixth to spell guys now and then as Whitlock stretches out (and replaces Eovaldi in '23). I think E-Rod takes a hometown discount, maybe in the 4/$72m to 5/$80 range. He loves Cora like a second father and he loves the core o' the team (which is remarkably very Latin). I don't see them picking up Richards's or Perez's options (or Andriese's - remember him?). They didn't even pick up Martin's this off season, bargaining him down after rejecting the option. I think both find better offers elsewhere. Hope for Seabold to fit into a Whitlock/Houck role and I won't be shocked if Chaim signs/trades for another AAA/MLB swingman that he's had his eye on for a while. Barnes, Brazier, Bazardo, Taylor, Darwinzon, Sawamura, Valdez form the nucleus of the bullpen. Worcester rotation to include Winckowski, Bello, Krawford, with some hangers-on from this season, and eventually Groome and perhaps Ward and Mata. Hard to remember the last time there were so many promising arms in the high minors. Obviously, injuries happen but we can always hope that this year's near-perfect health, particularly in the BOS rotation, is reflective of a successful team training/conditioning strategy. Unless Houck's starts to throw a third pitch more often I'm not comfortable with him starting long term. Also if Eovaldi continues to pitch well next season I wouldn't be surprised to see Bloom trade him at the deadline, especially if guys like Seabold (or potentially Bello, gotta dream) pitches well in the Minors Are you predicting the Sox won’t be in the playoff mix at next years deadline?
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Post by patford on Jul 24, 2021 8:07:35 GMT -5
My stab at the '22 rotation is: Sale ($25m) E-Rod ($16-$18m) Eovaldi ($17m, walk year) Pivetta (arb) Houck (min) Whitlock (min) Five-man rotation with a sixth to spell guys now and then as Whitlock stretches out (and replaces Eovaldi in '23). I think E-Rod takes a hometown discount, maybe in the 4/$72m to 5/$80 range. He loves Cora like a second father and he loves the core o' the team (which is remarkably very Latin). I don't see them picking up Richards's or Perez's options (or Andriese's - remember him?). They didn't even pick up Martin's this off season, bargaining him down after rejecting the option. I think both find better offers elsewhere. Hope for Seabold to fit into a Whitlock/Houck role and I won't be shocked if Chaim signs/trades for another AAA/MLB swingman that he's had his eye on for a while. Barnes, Brazier, Bazardo, Taylor, Darwinzon, Sawamura, Valdez form the nucleus of the bullpen. Worcester rotation to include Winckowski, Bello, Krawford, with some hangers-on from this season, and eventually Groome and perhaps Ward and Mata. Hard to remember the last time there were so many promising arms in the high minors. Obviously, injuries happen but we can always hope that this year's near-perfect health, particularly in the BOS rotation, is reflective of a successful team training/conditioning strategy. Unless Houck's starts to throw a third pitch more often I'm not comfortable with him starting long term. Also if Eovaldi continues to pitch well next season I wouldn't be surprised to see Bloom trade him at the deadline, especially if guys like Seabold (or potentially Bello, gotta dream) pitches well in the Minors Houck already has three pitches. His 2 seam and 4 seam FB and his slider. His trouble is his 4 seam is not very good and he throws it too much. The overuse of his 4 seam might be due to his slider and 2 seam being pitches which are most effective out of the zone so if he's going against a team like the Rays who don't swing at anything then he's got a problem because they just sit on his 4 seam and spit on everything else. If he could consistently command his 4 seam at the top edge of the zone it would be a more effective pitch for him.
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Post by dcb26 on Jul 24, 2021 9:12:42 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, how many zeroes does Houck need to put up with his present repertoire before you are comfortable? Not meaning to pick on you because that seems to be the general sentiment yet, I'm watching a pitcher totally dominating the opposition going back to last year and continuing now. The Yankees looked helpless except when Houck lost command of his fastballs for a couple of batters then recovered fast. How many hard hit balls did you see ? Honest non-snarky question, how many starters have had sustained success with 2 pitches? With Houck right now it's mostly theoretical no matter which way you lean, and I keep going back and forth. I'd feel a lot better though if he definitely had a legitimate third pitch - and I've seen the analysis that his 2 and 4 seam fastballs play differently enough to serve the same purpose as a traditional fastball and off-speed pitch would; I'm not discounting the possibility, but not sold yet, either. I wrote the above before I saw the post right above this one talking about the 2 and 4 seam fastballs. Maybe I should change the question to "how many starting pitchers have had sustained success with 2 types of fastballs and one other pitch?"
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 24, 2021 9:38:28 GMT -5
Out of curiosity, how many zeroes does Houck need to put up with his present repertoire before you are comfortable? Not meaning to pick on you because that seems to be the general sentiment yet, I'm watching a pitcher totally dominating the opposition going back to last year and continuing now. The Yankees looked helpless except when Houck lost command of his fastballs for a couple of batters then recovered fast. How many hard hit balls did you see ? Honest non-snarky question, how many starters have had sustained success with 2 pitches? With Houck right now it's mostly theoretical no matter which way you lean, and I keep going back and forth. I'd feel a lot better though if he definitely had a legitimate third pitch - and I've seen the analysis that his 2 and 4 seam fastballs play differently enough to serve the same purpose as a traditional fastball and off-speed pitch would; I'm not discounting the possibility, but not sold yet, either. I wrote the above before I saw the post right above this one talking about the 2 and 4 seam fastballs. Maybe I should change the question to "how many starting pitchers have had sustained success with 2 types of fastballs and one other pitch?" Over the history of baseball, a huge number (not going to try to add them up) with it being more common a century ago. Randy Johnson is my favorite example of the modern day 2-pitch pitcher (he added a change up and splitter late in his career, but still used them sparingly). Read this if you want an in-depth analysis: blogs.fangraphs.com/evaluating-two-pitch-pitchers/Given the concern of 2-pitch pitchers struggling to get through a lineup 3+ times, and the increasing reluctance of baseball teams to allow pitchers to go through the lineup 3+ times, I'm venturing to guess 2-pitch starting pitchers become more common over the proceeding decade (not surprisingly the Rays, who have used many piggy-back starters, are leading the way on this).
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 24, 2021 9:51:28 GMT -5
Houck has flashed a splitter that looks like it could be a great complement. Maybe it will take him another off-season to get it down.
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Post by philarhody on Jul 24, 2021 10:36:47 GMT -5
Great two pitch starters that come to the top of my head are overpowering lefties like Randy Johnson and Chris Sale. I think power command guys like Clemens and Schilling could fit this description too, although both threw occasional breaking balls in addition to 4 seams and splitters.
Houck is a similar style to the lanky lefties, but he operates from the right side of rubber, obviously. While he is probably going to struggle against lefties until he can learn to throw a cut fastball or something that drops a bit more, in the AL East with right handed heavy lineups like New York and Toronto, he could probably be average until he figures out that third pitch.
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Post by dcb26 on Jul 24, 2021 12:06:09 GMT -5
With the exception of Johnson (until the last few years of his career) even those guys aren't 2-pitch (or "fastballs plus 1 other pitch") pitchers though. Each of them threw another pitch or pitches 15+% of the time - they certainly relied primarily on fastballs and a secondary pitch but used tertiary pitches often enough and effectively enough that hitters had to account for them. I almost used Sale as an example of how pitchers who people consider "2-pitch" really do need a 3rd offering - you could make a solid argument that Sale's changeup is his most effective pitch.
I'm sure there are a number of guys who have had careers as starters without a legitimate 3rd offering - Masterson was overall solid for a few years as a starter, and Rich Hill is almost exclusively FB/CB, so I know its not impossible, but pitchers that have sustained success (or that you'd be comfortable penciling in as an important part of the rotation) seem pretty rare. Rare enough that I'm not real sure that what Houck has done in the majors so far outweighs the concern, anyway. To be clear, I want the Sox to give Houck plenty of opportunities to start, I'm hopeful he can do it. If we're trying to set the the 2022 rotation today, though, I'm at least a little concerned if he's one of the top 5.
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Post by philarhody on Jul 24, 2021 12:25:06 GMT -5
Obviously every pitcher is different. If you are going to throw only two pitches, a mid 80’s frisbee is a pretty good one to throw as it’s tougher on lefties than a traditional breaking ball.
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Post by soxinsf on Jul 24, 2021 13:01:16 GMT -5
Houck has flashed a splitter that looks like it could be a great complement. Maybe it will take him another off-season to get it down. Here is the Houck question in a nutshell. Can he develop a third pitch with a downward plane? If not, he will likely still be an effective pitcher over 3 to 5 innings, either as a useful long man out of the pen, or as another five inning starter. I get the concern that is felt about a pitcher facing a lineup a third time in a game, and, the best way to overcome that, and save the pen, is to have a couple of guys in the rotation who can be so potent that they are not liabilities the third time through. Houck could be one of those guys with a functional third pitch.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 24, 2021 13:31:27 GMT -5
ERod was a 2 pitch pitcher when he came up and then added his cutter. I think when you have two plus pitches, adding a 3rd almost average pitch is not incredibly difficult or uncommon.
If rosters are staying at 26, I don't think it's much of a problem to have 5 inning starters.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jul 24, 2021 21:52:50 GMT -5
With the exception of Johnson (until the last few years of his career) even those guys aren't 2-pitch (or "fastballs plus 1 other pitch") pitchers though. Each of them threw another pitch or pitches 15+% of the time - they certainly relied primarily on fastballs and a secondary pitch but used tertiary pitches often enough and effectively enough that hitters had to account for them. I almost used Sale as an example of how pitchers who people consider "2-pitch" really do need a 3rd offering - you could make a solid argument that Sale's changeup is his most effective pitch. I'm sure there are a number of guys who have had careers as starters without a legitimate 3rd offering - Masterson was overall solid for a few years as a starter, and Rich Hill is almost exclusively FB/CB, so I know its not impossible, but pitchers that have sustained success (or that you'd be comfortable penciling in as an important part of the rotation) seem pretty rare. Rare enough that I'm not real sure that what Houck has done in the majors so far outweighs the concern, anyway. To be clear, I want the Sox to give Houck plenty of opportunities to start, I'm hopeful he can do it. If we're trying to set the the 2022 rotation today, though, I'm at least a little concerned if he's one of the top 5. As others have mentioned, Houck doesn't really count as a 2-pitch pitcher since he throws 3 distinct pitches with regularity. Although cutters and sinkers are often referred to as 'fastballs' that's only due to their velocity and not and indication that they are the same as a 4-seam fastball. So let's change the wordage to 'only 1 off-speed pitch' for the matter of discussion. It's pretty common for pitchers to begin their major league career using only 1 off-speed pitch but the ones who have success seem to add a 2nd off-speed pitch early on if they are starters. For current Red Sox examples: Chris Sale was a FB/SL relief pitcher his rookie year; Eovaldi was very similar to Houck as a FB/SI/SL pitcher his rookie year before throwing off-speed pitches more and more as time went on; Richards was mostly a FB/SI/SL pitcher, throwing CH/CB only about 6% of the time up until his 6th year in the majors. 50% of the Red Sox rotation would fit into your criteria for the beginning of their careers, so I'm not too concerned at the moment. I'd say look to next season and see if he adds a 3rd pitch. It seems he's registering a splitter more often, although that's typically just a 2-seam/sinker with a wider grip, it can provide a change in velocity along with greater vertical movement, to keep hitters off-balance. If Houck doesn't add a 3rd pitch, he may not be a 7-9 inning guy (not that it hasn't happened before) but given how the game is evolving those pitchers are mostly a relic of the past. Even if he doesn't add another off-speed pitch, a 3-5 inning pitcher with his early levels of success is quite valuable and would be considered a starter by some teams.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 24, 2021 23:53:02 GMT -5
Houck throws 3 distinctly different sliders. One with a big bend (like the one that hit Gardner in the video above), one with a sharp late break and one halfway in between that also dips down more than the other two. He's essentially commanding shape. That's a weapon and that weapon was very effective against the Yankees.
CVaz always looked ready no matter how the break was so, it had to be a called pitch more than just putting down a slider sign. Eck mentioned the different shapes several times during the broadcast.
He also continues to tunnel. Every pitch has the same release point.
I can't think of a comp.
ADD: If the Sox brass thought a so called 3rd pitch was a necessity rather than a nicety, don't you think he would have been throwing a lot of them in AAA ? He wasn't. It's only getting a modicum of lip service.
In a bacon and egg breakfast, the pig is committed, the hen is involved. Houck was involved with the additional pitch.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 25, 2021 2:28:37 GMT -5
Last year, he only had 1 type of slider. It was similar to the middle one mentioned above.
If this is what Houck is, stats guys are going to have a nightmare analyzing the sliders without grouping them into different shapes.
Not meant as a comp, just an analogy. Mo had multiple cutters. Everyone knew a cutter was coming, they just didn't know which cutter was coming. He's pretty clearly the greatest closer of all time.
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Post by voiceofreason on Jul 25, 2021 8:41:20 GMT -5
Houck throws 3 distinctly different sliders. One with a big bend (like the one that hit Gardner in the video above), one with a sharp late break and one halfway in between that also dips down more than the other two. He's essentially commanding shape. That's a weapon and that weapon was very effective against the Yankees. CVaz always looked ready no matter how the break was so, it had to be a called pitch more than just putting down a slider sign. Eck mentioned the different shapes several times during the broadcast. He also continues to tunnel. Every pitch has the same release point. I can't think of a comp. ADD: If the Sox brass thought a so called 3rd pitch was a necessity rather than a nicety, don't you think he would have been throwing a lot of them in AAA ? He wasn't. It's only getting a modicum of lip service. In a bacon and egg breakfast, the pig is committed, the hen is involved. Houck was involved with the additional pitch. Eck is my favorite!! Funny and not afraid to speak his mind. I trust he knows more about pitching than me or the rest of us here so I will take his word for it. As for all this talk about innings and starters and piggybacking and whatever. I have been preaching for years about the 3 times thru the line up thing and how many pitches etc etc. Bottom line is very few pitchers are good enough long enough to think your going to get a solid 7 or 100+ pitches often enough to count on it. What you need and I think the future will be, is enough guys who can go thru the lineup twice. Piggybacking is the future and given that I think also that guys with 2 plus pitches will be fine. Push the 1 inning guys to pitch more like 2 and expect your starters to go 5. Statistically guys get crushed in the 6th or 7th right. So build your rotation to avoid that. Don't go to a 6 man rotation, manage the staff to minimize wear and tear by limiting the pitch count all while avoiding those bad innings when you tried to get too much out of a starter. I would bet that this is what we are going to see in the future, it just makes too much sense. We go on and on here about managing innings right, well just look at the total innings pitched each year and how far it has fallen. It just keeps going down year after year, what is causing that? Stress on arms because of the way they spin the ball and max out velocity, that isn't going away. 5 innings is the new 7. And it just so happens that the Sox with the depth of "starter" type arms are in a good position to approach it this way. It also takes the coaches to recognize when it is time to make the hook, which I think the Sox also are good at. So I say the rotation next year should go 7 deep. Sale, Eovaldi, ERod, Pivetta, Houck, Whitlock and 1 of either Perez or Richards. Those last 2 are an interesting decision based on ability and cost and will also be effected by the next man up from the farm. This depth also helps when injuries pop up. edit. Funny thing is that it now makes the guys who used to be considered mop up middle relievers some of the more important players on the team.
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Post by tookme55 on Jul 25, 2021 15:39:41 GMT -5
I believe Houck sees himself as a starter no matter what anyone else here thinks.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 27, 2021 22:14:25 GMT -5
Houck has flashed a splitter that looks like it could be a great complement. Maybe it will take him another off-season to get it down. Here is the Houck question in a nutshell. Can he develop a third pitch with a downward plane? If not, he will likely still be an effective pitcher over 3 to 5 innings, either as a useful long man out of the pen, or as another five inning starter. I get the concern that is felt about a pitcher facing a lineup a third time in a game, and, the best way to overcome that, and save the pen, is to have a couple of guys in the rotation who can be so potent that they are not liabilities the third time through. Houck could be one of those guys with a functional third pitch. His sinker actually breaks downward absolutely (0.8"), as opposed to merely relative to his 4-seamer like 95% of the pitchers in MLB. In fact, this year it has averaged fractionally more downward movement than his splitter (0.6").
The splitter is 5 mph slower and breaks straight down instead of having 8" of armside run.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 28, 2021 0:30:48 GMT -5
Houck throws 3 distinctly different sliders. One with a big bend (like the one that hit Gardner in the video above), one with a sharp late break and one halfway in between that also dips down more than the other two. He's essentially commanding shape. That's a weapon and that weapon was very effective against the Yankees. CVaz always looked ready no matter how the break was so, it had to be a called pitch more than just putting down a slider sign. Eck mentioned the different shapes several times during the broadcast. He also continues to tunnel. Every pitch has the same release point. I can't think of a comp. ADD: If the Sox brass thought a so called 3rd pitch was a necessity rather than a nicety, don't you think he would have been throwing a lot of them in AAA ? He wasn't. It's only getting a modicum of lip service. In a bacon and egg breakfast, the pig is committed, the hen is involved. Houck was involved with the additional pitch. What's your source for this? Your own impressions?
The only pitch-by-pitch movement map I can find is Statcast's Pitch Visualization Report. I compared him to Ottavino as another sinker / wipeout slider guy.
The first thing you notice is that Ottavino's sinker map is just a blob centered on the average pitch. Houck's is a diagonal band, running from less to more movement (down and away), so he's absolutely varying the degree of movement. He's changing movement on it in the same way you change speed.
Ottavino's slider shows a bit of a trade-off between getting break and getting sink, which is to say the blob is a bit of an tilted oval. It's not extreme enough to look like it's intentional, and this is supported by the density being fairly constant through the blob. There's also a handful or two of what look like hangers, with much less movement.
Houck's slider map shows a more angled blob, which is to say, quite a bit more of a tradeoff in the sliders that have less sweep and more sink. And they are clearly the minority; the densest part of the map is the sliders with big sweep and less sink. This has to be intentional.
There is, however, no evidence of even two distinct pitches, let alone three. What he seems to be doing is changing movement on the slider, to get more sink and less sweep, but on a continuum, again like changing speeds -- just like he does with the sinker. I think it would be very natural for a brain to see this as three distinct variants, but a continuum is very likely more effective.
The only other pitch-by-pitch maps I've ever seen were the ones I constructed from pitch/fx data while working for the Sox. I never found anyone who had distinct variations of a pitch. I tracked Justin Masterson's slider movement as a rookie long enough to notice a lot of variation but I don't think I ever updated the data enough to decide whether he was changing movement or not. And one of the symptoms of Daisuke's decline was that he lost what used to be very tight maps on his cutter, slider, and curve, and instead began producing an impossible-to-parse map full of hybrid pitches in addition to the three he was known to be trying to throw. It seems as if he lost the ability to keep the "muscle" memories distinct.
That small amount of work suggests to me that the ability to change movement on pitches is a fairly advanced skill.
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Post by bosoxnation on Jul 28, 2021 3:20:54 GMT -5
I’m really hurt reading all this E-Rod is a goner talk. I think he loves it here and will take a hometown discount AND he’s having a not so great season so we will be lucky to capitalize. The Red Sox win over 80% of the games E-Rod starts over his career. It was like 83% a few months ago. That number is insane. E-Rod needs to stay. Richards and Perez should be let go unless Perez comes back on another steal.
Sale Eovaldi E-Rod Pivetta Houck
with Perez or Whitlock as the injury replacement. I think it would be nice to let Whitlock continue to be one of the best middle relievers in the game. It’s very nice not sweating in the middle innings 😂. Once Eovaldis contract is up we can move him to SP but I don’t see the need to rush it. Another year under his belt wouldn’t hurt before the move.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 28, 2021 7:25:33 GMT -5
Houck throws 3 distinctly different sliders. One with a big bend (like the one that hit Gardner in the video above), one with a sharp late break and one halfway in between that also dips down more than the other two. He's essentially commanding shape. That's a weapon and that weapon was very effective against the Yankees. CVaz always looked ready no matter how the break was so, it had to be a called pitch more than just putting down a slider sign. Eck mentioned the different shapes several times during the broadcast. He also continues to tunnel. Every pitch has the same release point. I can't think of a comp. ADD: If the Sox brass thought a so called 3rd pitch was a necessity rather than a nicety, don't you think he would have been throwing a lot of them in AAA ? He wasn't. It's only getting a modicum of lip service. In a bacon and egg breakfast, the pig is committed, the hen is involved. Houck was involved with the additional pitch. What's your source for this? Your own impressions? The only pitch-by-pitch movement map I can find is Statcast's Pitch Visualization Report. I compared him to Ottavino as another sinker / wipeout slider guy.
The first thing you notice is that Ottavino's sinker map is just a blob centered on the average pitch. Houck's is a diagonal band, running from less to more movement (down and away), so he's absolutely varying the degree of movement. He's changing movement on it in the same way you change speed. Ottavino's slider shows a bit of a trade-off between getting break and getting sink, which is to say the blob is a bit of an tilted oval. It's not extreme enough to look like it's intentional, and this is supported by the density being fairly constant through the blob. There's also a handful or two of what look like hangers, with much less movement. Houck's slider map shows a more angled blob, which is to say, quite a bit more of a tradeoff in the sliders that have less sweep and more sink. And they are clearly the minority; the densest part of the map is the sliders with big sweep and less sink. This has to be intentional.
There is, however, no evidence of even two distinct pitches, let alone three. What he seems to be doing is changing movement on the slider, to get more sink and less sweep, but on a continuum, again like changing speeds -- just like he does with the sinker. I think it would be very natural for a brain to see this as three distinct variants, but a continuum is very likely more effective.
The only other pitch-by-pitch maps I've ever seen were the ones I constructed from pitch/fx data while working for the Sox. I never found anyone who had distinct variations of a pitch. I tracked Justin Masterson's slider movement as a rookie long enough to notice a lot of variation but I don't think I ever updated the data enough to decide whether he was changing movement or not. And one of the symptoms of Daisuke's decline was that he lost what used to be very tight maps on his cutter, slider, and curve, and instead began producing an impossible-to-parse map full of hybrid pitches in addition to the three he was known to be trying to throw. It seems as if he lost the ability to keep the "muscle" memories distinct. That small amount of work suggests to me that the ability to change movement on pitches is a fairly advanced skill.
Yes, my own impressions. The differences in movement is obvious as is the fact that the catcher is prepared for the specific movement which pretty much says he's controlling it. If you have time, watch some of the game and watch Vasquez on the sliders. Only the batter isn't prepared. It could be an uncontrolled continuum but that doesn't explain the catcher and I didn't see any slider between the slurvy one and the mid slider (#2 above). Also, look at the slider to Gardner above. I'm pretty sure that one (there were several similar), is nowhere near the average. It started outside and ended up hitting him. Immediately before that he got a slider on the outside corner with a sharp break. That is what he expected when he saw the little red slider circle on its way. If Houck threw the same slider, Gardner would have barreled it, that's no rookie batter in the box. Yes, an advanced skill. Like I said, I can't think of a comp for what I think, closest I could come was Mo's cutter.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2021 9:10:02 GMT -5
Curious what you mean by the catcher being ready for the specific movement. Like it's certainly not that he's hitting the glove with pinpoint accuracy.
I just feel like if you know a slider is coming, as long as you know roughly the velo and how it's going to break, as a MLB catcher, you can receive it. It's not like thinking 83 is coming and getting 95.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 28, 2021 11:42:24 GMT -5
Sadly, Mad Max wants to go to fire land so there’s no hope for me ending up in the Sox 2020 rotation.
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