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Franchy Cordero, the enigma
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2021 8:28:41 GMT -5
I honestly believe they're going to stick to the model they've been following, looking for under-valued players who have decent offensive and defensive skills and can play multiple positions. It's the Belichikian to do! Arroyo, Renfroe, and Hernandez all have that profile. In that light, it's not surprising they're looking to expand Cordero's skillset. Hatfield's master plan would seem to fit into that. Hatfield's master plan ? Multiple posters have been suggesting that in multiple places for quite a while now. Hatfield is good and obviously knowledgeable but really doesn't need credit for things that are not his ideas. Dalbec/Chavis/Santana are the worst 1B combo in baseball and the Sox biggest hole. A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link. RE: the bolded part, they're... somehow not? www.baseball-reference.com/tools/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1¶ms=defp%7Cas%201B%7CML%7C2021%7Cbat%7CAB%7CThe Mariners have been slightly worse (really the Red Sox, M's, and DBacks are in a tier), but both the Yankees and Indians have been WAY worse. Moving to Bobby Bradley is a step in the right direction for Cleveland, who got put in a hole by Jake Bauers and Yu Chang, two former prospects who've been worse than Dalbec. For the NYY, Voit's been hurt and not great when playing. LeMahieu has played a lot of 1B but hasn't been himself, especially when playing 1B. Definitely an area that needs to be addressed though, regardless. As for the first part, I mean, I think the guy was just referring to a post for simplicity, but fair point on not giving me too much credit. Joking aside, as other poster have mentioned, trying Franchy there for 3 weeks or so will inform whether the team needs to look outside the org for a solution there. I got asked on a radio hit yesterday about prospects they might trade, but I honestly don't know where they're going to look to add if this works. Maybe another bullpen arm, but if Sale comes back as "Chris Sale" and Cordero at 1B works, you have Duran as your ace in the hole if any of the 3 OFs turns into a pumpkin... I'm not sure where else they'd do more than make opportunistic deals outside the bullpen, and even then, I don't see it as an area of "need" so much as everyone could use another good RP.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 30, 2021 8:30:04 GMT -5
Obviously I adore this, but there's something else that's not obvious.
He has passed the hitting exam, if you get my meaning. He was asked to learn / show he could do certain things at the plate, and he has.
Because you never, never ask a player to learn or work on two very different things at once. Given his SS experience, learning to play an adequate 1B should not be a long process.
This doesn't mean a strict platoon with Dalbec. On any given day vs. a RHP, three of Franchy, Dalbec, Kiké, and Arroyo play, and you can even start all four and sit Renfroe. When Durran arrives, it's 6 players for four positions. Nearly as much flexibility as they have now.
A further upshot: if Franchy succeeds in this role, this makes it much easier to make room for Durran by trading Marwin, as opposed to going to 13 pitchers. The two non-catchers on the bench right now are Marwin and Santana. In the new regime, it's Franchy (or Dalbec) and Kiké (or Arroyo). Given the strength of the two extra players, it would be hard to find PT for a third.
Thanks for this. I had thought of the premise (can't ask a struggling hitter to learn 1b) but not the smart conclusion. Having Duran (I don't think the joke misspelling is worth it) and Franchy on the 25 would mean a lean backup situation for middle-infield and 3b. You'd see occasional appearances of Dalbec at 3rd or Vazquez or Wong at 2nd. Nothing wrong with giving JD, Renfroe, and Verdugo an occasional day off. Is a trade of Marwin actually possible? Would anyone want him? Would we have to pay his salary? Rosters expand in September. Workman and Andriese also barely play so it might be worth going to a 4 man bench for a bit.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 30, 2021 8:46:27 GMT -5
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Post by patford on Jun 30, 2021 8:50:30 GMT -5
"Everyone" is drafted as a SS. In the case of Cordero it is interesting that the Padres did not immediately move him off SS. That suggests there were thoughts he could stick at SS which further suggests he ought to be at least a competent 1B.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2021 8:51:01 GMT -5
Thanks for this. I had thought of the premise (can't ask a struggling hitter to learn 1b) but not the smart conclusion. Having Duran (I don't think the joke misspelling is worth it) and Franchy on the 25 would mean a lean backup situation for middle-infield and 3b. You'd see occasional appearances of Dalbec at 3rd or Vazquez or Wong at 2nd. Nothing wrong with giving JD, Renfroe, and Verdugo an occasional day off. Is a trade of Marwin actually possible? Would anyone want him? Would we have to pay his salary? Rosters expand in September. Workman and Andriese also barely play so it might be worth going to a 4 man bench for a bit. Just a point of information: Keep in mind they only expand from 26 to 28 now (and that it's a 26-man roster, not 25). I do tend to agree that having Duran and Franchy on the same roster would probably require a four-man bench. I do think you can do that with a 26-man roster, but then you get into the question of how much rope they think they need to give Sale when he gets back.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 30, 2021 9:33:24 GMT -5
It's been so easy to forget this.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 30, 2021 10:45:19 GMT -5
Hatfield's master plan ? Multiple posters have been suggesting that in multiple places for quite a while now. Hatfield is good and obviously knowledgeable but really doesn't need credit for things that are not his ideas. Dalbec/Chavis/Santana are the worst 1B combo in baseball and the Sox biggest hole. A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link. RE: the bolded part, they're... somehow not? www.baseball-reference.com/tools/split_stats_lg.cgi?full=1¶ms=defp%7Cas%201B%7CML%7C2021%7Cbat%7CAB%7CThe Mariners have been slightly worse (really the Red Sox, M's, and DBacks are in a tier), but both the Yankees and Indians have been WAY worse. Moving to Bobby Bradley is a step in the right direction for Cleveland, who got put in a hole by Jake Bauers and Yu Chang, two former prospects who've been worse than Dalbec. For the NYY, Voit's been hurt and not great when playing. LeMahieu has played a lot of 1B but hasn't been himself, especially when playing 1B. Definitely an area that needs to be addressed though, regardless. As for the first part, I mean, I think the guy was just referring to a post for simplicity, but fair point on not giving me too much credit. Joking aside, as other poster have mentioned, trying Franchy there for 3 weeks or so will inform whether the team needs to look outside the org for a solution there. I got asked on a radio hit yesterday about prospects they might trade, but I honestly don't know where they're going to look to add if this works. Maybe another bullpen arm, but if Sale comes back as "Chris Sale" and Cordero at 1B works, you have Duran as your ace in the hole if any of the 3 OFs turns into a pumpkin... I'm not sure where else they'd do more than make opportunistic deals outside the bullpen, and even then, I don't see it as an area of "need" so much as everyone could use another good RP. Well let's go, already. I mean west coast road trip coming up means no Fenway microscope.
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Post by cba82 on Jun 30, 2021 10:57:08 GMT -5
There is a math problem with this roster, and the Sox are likely going to have to eat the contracts of Gonzalez and Santana; I can’t see another team picking up either until they clear waivers.
Complicating matters further, perhaps, was a piece on NESN this morning suggesting that Marcus Wilson could be called up before Duran.
Can Arroyo play short, to give Boegarts the occasional day off?
Perhaps injuries will resolve some of this, but that doesn’t feel like a strategy.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2021 11:20:27 GMT -5
There is a math problem with this roster, and the Sox are likely going to have to eat the contracts of Gonzalez and Santana; I can’t see another team picking up either until they clear waivers. Complicating matters further, perhaps, was a piece on NESN this morning suggesting that Marcus Wilson could be called up before Duran. Can Arroyo play short, to give Boegarts the occasional day off? Perhaps injuries will resolve some of this, but that doesn’t feel like a strategy. People keep referring to "eating" the Santana and Gonzalez contracts. Santana is making $1.75M prorated and Gonzalez is making $3M. that's chump change. Meanwhile, I don't think Santana makes it to August, but I do think Gonzalez sticks around. If they're going to stay with a 3-man bench, they kind of need a versatile guy who can field all the positions he does on that bench. Hernandez has been producing at an MLB regular rate for just under a month now and Arroyo is due back soon, which will push Gonzalez/Santana back to true bench roles playing less often than they have.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 30, 2021 11:29:46 GMT -5
Left unmentioned in all of this talk about Cordero are Mieses and Wilson. The former is crushing his AAA call up so far. And in a perfect baseball world, Wilson would get a cup of coffee at some point. Worcester has a hell of an outfield.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Jun 30, 2021 11:32:58 GMT -5
There is a math problem with this roster, and the Sox are likely going to have to eat the contracts of Gonzalez and Santana; I canât see another team picking up either until they clear waivers. Complicating matters further, perhaps, was a piece on NESN this morning suggesting that Marcus Wilson could be called up before Duran. Can Arroyo play short, to give Boegarts the occasional day off? Perhaps injuries will resolve some of this, but that doesnât feel like a strategy. People keep referring to "eating" the Santana and Gonzalez contracts. Santana is making $1.75M prorated and Gonzalez is making $3M. that's chump change. Meanwhile, I don't think Santana makes it to August, but I do think Gonzalez sticks around. If they're going to stay with a 3-man bench, they kind of need a versatile guy who can field all the positions he does on that bench. Hernandez has been producing at an MLB regular rate for just under a month now and Arroyo is due back soon, which will push Gonzalez/Santana back to true bench roles playing less often than they have. If both Duran and Cordero are on the 26, how can you have both Gonzalez and a 3-man bench? Of Duran, Cordero, Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe, Arroyo and Dalbec, only 5 can play at once. So the bench is two of them plus a catcher? Or can they only have one of Duran/Cordero up?
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Post by incandenza on Jun 30, 2021 11:33:44 GMT -5
Hatfield's master plan ? Multiple posters have been suggesting that in multiple places for quite a while now. Hatfield is good and obviously knowledgeable but really doesn't need credit for things that are not his ideas. Dalbec/Chavis/Santana are the worst 1B combo in baseball and the Sox biggest hole. A chain is only as strong as it's weakest link. RE: the bolded part, they're... somehow not? I don't think it's too surprising when you realize that Dalbec has actually been okay.
Since 4/11, not exactly deep into the season: .231/.278/.462, 95 wRC+
Since 5/1, a non-cherry-picked date: .219/.263/.466, 91 wRC+
Since 5/7, a cherry-picked date: .246/.293/.523, 114 wRC+ (5th best on the team after Bogaerts, Devers, and Renfroe, and Arroyo just barely edges him out, though with only 62 PAs)
Since 6/1: .237/.280/.500, 104 wRC+
Since 6/10: .315/.356/.630, 159 wRC+
His wOBA is still behind his xwOBA too (.297 vs. .323).
And encouragingly, even though the moon is waning (i.e., following his established pattern, he should be in the middle of one of his slumpy stretches) he's had a couple of good games in a row, and looks pretty good at the plate, using the opposite field, etc.
He still has bad numbers against righties overall, though I'd be curious if those have improved lately; it seems like he's hit them better in the last month or so.
All this to say: I would consider 1B far from a black hole at this point. If Franchy can hit, a Franchy/Dalbec platoon could be a real strength, but even if Franchy flops again this is not really the place I'd look to expend resources in making an upgrade.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jun 30, 2021 11:35:16 GMT -5
It's been so easy to forget this. I try to bring it up every time he is mentioned because it’s kind of a big deal. He got off an illness that saps you of energy and was more or less thrust directly into the spotlight in Boston without much in terms of reps to prepare for the season I’m excited for Franchy 2.0
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 30, 2021 11:58:17 GMT -5
People keep referring to "eating" the Santana and Gonzalez contracts. Santana is making $1.75M prorated and Gonzalez is making $3M. that's chump change. Meanwhile, I don't think Santana makes it to August, but I do think Gonzalez sticks around. If they're going to stay with a 3-man bench, they kind of need a versatile guy who can field all the positions he does on that bench. Hernandez has been producing at an MLB regular rate for just under a month now and Arroyo is due back soon, which will push Gonzalez/Santana back to true bench roles playing less often than they have. If both Duran and Cordero are on the 26, how can you have both Gonzalez and a 3-man bench? Of Duran, Cordero, Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe, Arroyo and Dalbec, only 5 can play at once. So the bench is two of them plus a catcher? Or can they only have one of Duran/Cordero up? You can't. I wasn't starting from that premise. I've been making the point for a couple weeks now that they're not calling Duran up because they don't (think, at least, they) need an outfielder. Again, Arroyo sounds like he's coming back right at 10 days. He takes the lion's share of 2B AB's. Hernandez is mostly in CF. Cordero is your 4th OF and LHH 1B. Dalbec loses PT against RHP. Chavis goes back to Worcester and Santana probably gets DFA. Gonzalez is your only real "bench" player because you're rotating 9 guys in 8 spots now. EDIT: to be clearer, rotating 4 guys in 3 spots, really, in 1B, 2B, and one OF slot that's either CF or LF. Duran probably only comes up if someone turns back into a pumpkin (EDIT: e.g., Hernandez starts hitting like a utility guy again, Renfroe starts hitting like a platoon guy again, Arroyo magic wears off) or gets hurt (Arroyo's inability to stay healthy being a key thing to watch). His not going to the Futures Game makes it sound like he's going to Tokyo, which means the team was apparently ok with losing him for the second half of July.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Jun 30, 2021 12:32:07 GMT -5
If both Duran and Cordero are on the 26, how can you have both Gonzalez and a 3-man bench? Of Duran, Cordero, Verdugo, Kiké, Renfroe, Arroyo and Dalbec, only 5 can play at once. So the bench is two of them plus a catcher? Or can they only have one of Duran/Cordero up? You can't. I wasn't starting from that premise. I've been making the point for a couple weeks now that they're not calling Duran up because they don't (think, at least, they) need an outfielder. Again, Arroyo sounds like he's coming back right at 10 days. He takes the lion's share of 2B AB's. Hernandez is mostly in CF. Cordero is your 4th OF and LHH 1B. Dalbec loses PT against RHP. Chavis goes back to Worcester and Santana probably gets DFA. Gonzalez is your only real "bench" player because you're rotating 9 guys in 8 spots now. Duran probably only comes up if someone turns into a pumpkin or gets hurt. His not going to the Futures Game makes it sound like he's going to Tokyo, which means the team was apparently ok with losing him for the second half of July. Ok that makes sense. I've always been more interested in Duran in 2022, in centerfield, with a non-bargain-basement pitching staff.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 30, 2021 15:51:01 GMT -5
I've made so many useful comments at the Athletic that I feel that quoting the Franchy article at length is a fair exchange. It's also a bit of a sample of / ad for their coverage, which quite frequently has stuff you never see in the Globe, etc..
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 30, 2021 19:34:16 GMT -5
Rosters expand in September. Workman and Andriese also barely play so it might be worth going to a 4 man bench for a bit. Just a point of information: Keep in mind they only expand from 26 to 28 now (and that it's a 26-man roster, not 25). I do tend to agree that having Duran and Franchy on the same roster would probably require a four-man bench. I do think you can do that with a 26-man roster, but then you get into the question of how much rope they think they need to give Sale when he gets back. I thought it was 29 for some reason actually. Would they need to use both those spots on bullpen though? I guess it depends how the season plays out huh? I would think September would be a good time to get the regulars some rest as well, and as I said in the previous post we have some bullpen guys barely pitching.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 1, 2021 4:50:56 GMT -5
There is a math problem with this roster, and the Sox are likely going to have to eat the contracts of Gonzalez and Santana; I canât see another team picking up either until they clear waivers. Complicating matters further, perhaps, was a piece on NESN this morning suggesting that Marcus Wilson could be called up before Duran. Can Arroyo play short, to give Boegarts the occasional day off? Perhaps injuries will resolve some of this, but that doesnât feel like a strategy. People keep referring to "eating" the Santana and Gonzalez contracts. Santana is making $1.75M prorated and Gonzalez is making $3M. that's chump change. Meanwhile, I don't think Santana makes it to August, but I do think Gonzalez sticks around. If they're going to stay with a 3-man bench, they kind of need a versatile guy who can field all the positions he does on that bench. Hernandez has been producing at an MLB regular rate for just under a month now and Arroyo is due back soon, which will push Gonzalez/Santana back to true bench roles playing less often than they have. They went a good chunk of the year with Franchy instead of Santana, so the question is whether they can keep a 3-man bench if Duran replaces Marwin.
they kind of need a versatile guy who can field all the positions he does on that bench.
Can you make sense of these numbers?
1B 46, 16, 19, 0. SS 169, 67, 41, 2. LF 82, 44, 86, 0. RF 75, 66, 116, 0.
That's right: innings played by Kiké Hernandez from 2018 to 2021 (2020 pro-rated). They have not used him as a utility guy at all. He has 416 innings in CF and 119 at 2B. And 2 more. They can add Duran in CF and move Kiké into Marwin's role (and then some).
The standard 3 men on a 4-man bench are a skill infielder, a 4th OFer, and a 1B who can play either 3B or OF.
Arroyo is the bench skill infielder, except he's actually your platoon 2B and is good enough to get starts against RHP. Dalbec is the backup corner infielder, except he's actually your platoon 1B and is also good enough to get starts against RHP. If you go with a short bench, you have no 4th OFer, but your starting 1B is a solid defensive LF and your starting 2B is a very good defensive CF (in fact, likely in a platoon there) and can play everywhere else if needed. And 1B and 2B are the two positions where the backup has often been your starter as you played at a 100-win pace. It's really a team with 11 regulars and a backup catcher. And the starting catcher can in a pinch play 1B, 2B and 3B (65, 15, and 15 career innings, including some at each position already this year) and leads the club in SB!
It's hard to see what PT there would be for Marwin. It's also really hard to see how they could get down to 13 pitchers, but that's another topic.
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Post by sibbysisti on Jul 1, 2021 8:54:39 GMT -5
Is part of the reason for not calling up Duran the possibility of burning a year on his FA status? I don't recall how many games have to be played before he would reach that deadline. Anyway it seems like the FO has a plan for him until September.
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Post by kman22 on Jul 1, 2021 10:00:26 GMT -5
Is part of the reason for not calling up Duran the possibility of burning a year on his FA status? I don't recall how many games have to be played before he would reach that deadline. Anyway it seems like the FO has a plan for him until September. I think that date is safely in the rear view at this point.
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vokuhila
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 7, 2021 10:27:48 GMT -5
What is a reasonable timeframe for someone to "learn first base"? With the outfield performing like it has there is no reason to call him up as an OF (only if they need Kiké to go utility again). In an ideal world you would want to be certain he can play 1B before the trade deadline.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jul 7, 2021 10:45:43 GMT -5
What is a reasonable timeframe for someone to "learn first base"? With the outfield performing like it has there is no reason to call him up as an OF (only if they need Kiké to go utility again). In an ideal world you would want to be certain he can play 1B before the trade deadline. The reason is Marwin and Santana can’t fill-in as 4th outfielders or backup 1B very well. Cora starts the bench guys all the time, so this really adds up and hurts the production of our lineup.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 13, 2021 20:50:16 GMT -5
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 13, 2021 22:32:16 GMT -5
GG
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Post by incandenza on Aug 5, 2021 16:06:59 GMT -5
Franchy has hit .333/.400/.333 since getting called back up. If not for the ump stealing a walk from it it would be .353/.450/.353.
Power hasn't shown up yet, as that line indicates. But I am cautiously, tentatively, becoming intrigued.
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