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Trade deadline (2021): thoughts/strategy/predictions
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 10, 2021 7:36:37 GMT -5
I mentioned Cron a few times as a cheap acquisition as well I will say, maybe they want to offer him arbitration hoping to get a draft pick? Rockies are like the Bengals in regards to taking the stance that the player agreed to play for them for the duration of the contract and it would take a lot to deal anyone on that team. Organization is run extremely weird. Its really hurt them in the long run. Guys like Story Bard and Cron could have helped them a lot with what they could have brought back. I mean, if their contracts are almost up and they asked those players if they would mind getting moved to a contender for 2-3 months and they said no I would find that a little strange. They don't have a no-trade in their contracts, but I understand a gentleman's agreement. I do wonder if they just like the draft pick more than the middling prospects they would otherwise get back? Would you prefer an Aldo Ramirez type or a compensation pick? That's my theory with the Schwarber trade. He's going to re-sign because there's no loss of a pick and taking it further, I can see Verdugo moved for more kids as well, but maybe they keep him at 1B/DH.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 10, 2021 7:53:15 GMT -5
Rockies are like the Bengals in regards to taking the stance that the player agreed to play for them for the duration of the contract and it would take a lot to deal anyone on that team. Organization is run extremely weird. Its really hurt them in the long run. Guys like Story Bard and Cron could have helped them a lot with what they could have brought back. I mean, if their contracts are almost up and they asked those players if they would mind getting moved to a contender for 2-3 months and they said no I would find that a little strange. They don't have a no-trade in their contracts, but I understand a gentleman's agreement. I do wonder if they just like the draft pick more than the middling prospects they would otherwise get back? Would you prefer an Aldo Ramirez type or a compensation pick? That's my theory with the Schwarber trade. He's going to re-sign because there's no loss of a pick and taking it further, I can see Verdugo moved for more kids as well, but maybe they keep him at 1B/DH. This goes back to when everyone thought Huston Street was getting moved at the deadline and the Rockies just stood pat. Story was kind of stunned that he wasn't moved. Its an organizational philosophy. Just not a very good one. Speaking of not very good, trading Verdugo just to kick the can down the road on this rebuild would send a terrible message. As far as Schwarber goes it would benefit the player to opt in at this point. Too much time has passed and it will probably be later in the month when we see him. By that time the Sox will potentially be in 4th place. The organization didn't believe in this roster to contend and acted as such.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 10, 2021 8:00:37 GMT -5
Rockies are like the Bengals in regards to taking the stance that the player agreed to play for them for the duration of the contract and it would take a lot to deal anyone on that team. Organization is run extremely weird. Its really hurt them in the long run. Guys like Story Bard and Cron could have helped them a lot with what they could have brought back. I mean, if their contracts are almost up and they asked those players if they would mind getting moved to a contender for 2-3 months and they said no I would find that a little strange. They don't have a no-trade in their contracts, but I understand a gentleman's agreement. I do wonder if they just like the draft pick more than the middling prospects they would otherwise get back? Would you prefer an Aldo Ramirez type or a compensation pick? That's my theory with the Schwarber trade. He's going to re-sign because there's no loss of a pick and taking it further, I can see Verdugo moved for more kids as well, but maybe they keep him at 1B/DH. Wait, what? Verdugo who's 25, not arb eligible until 2022 and not a FA until 2025? Really?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 10, 2021 8:10:43 GMT -5
I mean, if their contracts are almost up and they asked those players if they would mind getting moved to a contender for 2-3 months and they said no I would find that a little strange. They don't have a no-trade in their contracts, but I understand a gentleman's agreement. I do wonder if they just like the draft pick more than the middling prospects they would otherwise get back? Would you prefer an Aldo Ramirez type or a compensation pick? That's my theory with the Schwarber trade. He's going to re-sign because there's no loss of a pick and taking it further, I can see Verdugo moved for more kids as well, but maybe they keep him at 1B/DH. Wait, what? Verdugo who's 25, not arb eligible until 2022 and not a FA until 2025? Really? And the haul you could get for a guy like that would be enormous while having his replacement on hand. It's about rebuilding the system as quickly as possible. I could see Dalbec back at 1B next year as well. Maybe it's crazy talk, but when you have 2 left fielders and a young player like Verdugo with the control remaining he has, I'm assuming you can gouge a team's farm system. Schwarber is slightly the better player.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 10, 2021 8:17:23 GMT -5
I mean, if their contracts are almost up and they asked those players if they would mind getting moved to a contender for 2-3 months and they said no I would find that a little strange. They don't have a no-trade in their contracts, but I understand a gentleman's agreement. I do wonder if they just like the draft pick more than the middling prospects they would otherwise get back? Would you prefer an Aldo Ramirez type or a compensation pick? That's my theory with the Schwarber trade. He's going to re-sign because there's no loss of a pick and taking it further, I can see Verdugo moved for more kids as well, but maybe they keep him at 1B/DH. This goes back to when everyone thought Huston Street was getting moved at the deadline and the Rockies just stood pat. Story was kind of stunned that he wasn't moved. Its an organizational philosophy. Just not a very good one. Speaking of not very good, trading Verdugo just to kick the can down the road on this rebuild would send a terrible message. As far as Schwarber goes it would benefit the player to opt in at this point. Too much time has passed and it will probably be later in the month when we see him. By that time the Sox will potentially be in 4th place. The organization didn't believe in this roster to contend and acted as such. It's not really kicking the can down the road. It's because this team doesn't believe in this year and probably not next either. Schwarber is a slight upgrade overall in LF. I'm assuming the package for a good player who is 26 and 3 years of arbitration could net a nifty return. Then you have Renfroe in RF and Duran in CF. Dalbec probably gets another year at 1B until Casas is ready. Bloom's first job is to make this a strong farm system. Turning Aldo Ramirez into a protected draft pick, slight improvement in left and getting a bunch of high end prospects just seems like win-win. They were willing to go over the luxury tax for Hosmer so the cost I don't believe is a factor. Maybe Schwarber does play and stay at 1B, but I do believe they acquired him for more than just this year.
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Post by manfred on Aug 10, 2021 8:28:21 GMT -5
Wait, what? Verdugo who's 25, not arb eligible until 2022 and not a FA until 2025? Really? And the haul you could get for a guy like that would be enormous while having his replacement on hand. It's about rebuilding the system as quickly as possible. I could see Dalbec back at 1B next year as well. Maybe it's crazy talk, but when you have 2 left fielders and a young player like Verdugo with the control remaining he has, I'm assuming you can gouge a team's farm system. Schwarber is slightly the better player. I don’t think Verdugo gets nearly as much as you suggest. It would be insane to trade him.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 10, 2021 9:20:24 GMT -5
And the haul you could get for a guy like that would be enormous while having his replacement on hand. It's about rebuilding the system as quickly as possible. I could see Dalbec back at 1B next year as well. Maybe it's crazy talk, but when you have 2 left fielders and a young player like Verdugo with the control remaining he has, I'm assuming you can gouge a team's farm system. Schwarber is slightly the better player. I don’t think Verdugo gets nearly as much as you suggest. It would be insane to trade him. Back of the envelope math, five years of Verdugo was worth about a third of a year of Mookie Betts. So three years of Verdugo is worth what? As a young, controllable player, he would be worth something but not sure it would be a "haul."
Would've made sense, perhaps, as a piece in a Scherzer trade but I would be surprised if that was a consideration.
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Post by manfred on Aug 10, 2021 9:52:23 GMT -5
I don’t think Verdugo gets nearly as much as you suggest. It would be insane to trade him. Back of the envelope math, five years of Verdugo was worth about a third of a year of Mookie Betts. So three years of Verdugo is worth what? As a young, controllable player, he would be worth something but not sure it would be a "haul."
Would've made sense, perhaps, as a piece in a Scherzer trade but I would be surprised if that was a consideration. I’m not dismissing his value. I guess I mean you won’t get the big gaul that would be worth the equivalent or more of the years you can control him. If you could get Scherzer for him and minimal prospect damage, I’d do it. I doubt that is the case.
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Post by joshuacoffee on Aug 10, 2021 10:50:36 GMT -5
My predictions on trades from here on out is that nothing big happens before December 1, because teams won't know what new rules they'll be operating under after that. At that point, the millionaires and billionaires will be more concerned about winning (in collective negotiations against each other, not on the field) and there won't be a new deal in place. Tony Clark is under a lot of pressure not to fold like a Japanese paper fan this time, and the owners have consistently shown that they are willing to lose millions to make thousands (or maybe lose billions to make millions). I don't know if the owners can stomach giving the players any improvement on the lopsided deal that is expiring. I'm actually pretty pessimistic that there will be a full season next year. I do think there's a good chance that we might get a half season, as the losses start to mount up for the owners.
Maybe I'm just being too pessimistic though.
I guess a deal of Verdugo for prospects would be the type of deal that might get done, as it wouldn't involve a lot of money for either side, but I'm with Manfred in thinking that there's almost no way that we would get the prospect haul that would make it worth it.
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bcsox
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Post by bcsox on Aug 10, 2021 12:56:31 GMT -5
Nothing they could do about it, but I wonder what this thread would have looked like had the sox schedule been different. At the time of the deadline, the Sox were in the midst of the brutal 17 games in 17 days all against the other three AL East contenders. More specifically the Sox were embarking on a fare that included 3 at Tampa, 3 at Detroit(who have been fairly solid for the last 3 months), 4 at toronto, 3 at home to Tampa. Really tough road. Meanwhile since we last saw them at Fenway, and taking three of four from them, the Yankees have had their feet up at Club Med. How about this stretch during which they have got fat and happy:
3 At Tampa 3 Home Marlins 3 Home Orioles 3 Home Mariners 3 at KC
Had the Sox had this 15 game run in the middle of the deadline and went say 10-5, and broke down three weeks after the deadline, would we still attributer the meltdown to the deadline?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 10, 2021 13:13:00 GMT -5
Back of the envelope math, five years of Verdugo was worth about a third of a year of Mookie Betts. So three years of Verdugo is worth what? As a young, controllable player, he would be worth something but not sure it would be a "haul."
Would've made sense, perhaps, as a piece in a Scherzer trade but I would be surprised if that was a consideration. I’m not dismissing his value. I guess I mean you won’t get the big gaul that would be worth the equivalent or more of the years you can control him. If you could get Scherzer for him and minimal prospect damage, I’d do it. I doubt that is the case. I guess it really depends if the same deal is available a year or 2 later as it would be in the off-season. I think they're going to look into very creative ways to build up the farm system. I know they'd like to win, but I think Bloom would also relish having a similar situation as the Cubs that had a bunch of talent to sell in a lost season.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 10, 2021 13:14:28 GMT -5
My predictions on trades from here on out is that nothing big happens before December 1, because teams won't know what new rules they'll be operating under after that. At that point, the millionaires and billionaires will be more concerned about winning (in collective negotiations against each other, not on the field) and there won't be a new deal in place. Tony Clark is under a lot of pressure not to fold like a Japanese paper fan this time, and the owners have consistently shown that they are willing to lose millions to make thousands (or maybe lose billions to make millions). I don't know if the owners can stomach giving the players any improvement on the lopsided deal that is expiring. I'm actually pretty pessimistic that there will be a full season next year. I do think there's a good chance that we might get a half season, as the losses start to mount up for the owners. Maybe I'm just being too pessimistic though. I guess a deal of Verdugo for prospects would be the type of deal that might get done, as it wouldn't involve a lot of money for either side, but I'm with Manfred in thinking that there's almost no way that we would get the prospect haul that would make it worth it. But why not just keep good young players instead of getting an unknown return filled with "potential"? This is still a big market team. Even though they don't want to pay into the luxury tax anymore.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 10, 2021 13:20:10 GMT -5
Nothing they could do about it, but I wonder what this thread would have looked like had the sox schedule been different. At the time of the deadline, the Sox were in the midst of the brutal 17 games in 17 days all against the other three AL East contenders. More specifically the Sox were embarking on a fare that included 3 at Tampa, 3 at Detroit(who have been fairly solid for the last 3 months), 4 at toronto, 3 at home to Tampa. Really tough road. Meanwhile since we last saw them at Fenway, and taking three of four from them, the Yankees have had their feet up at Club Med. How about this stretch during which they have got fat and happy: 3 At Tampa 3 Home Marlins 3 Home Orioles 3 Home Mariners 3 at KC Had the Sox had this 15 game run in the middle of the deadline and went say 10-5, and broke down three weeks after the deadline, would we still attributer the meltdown to the deadline? Overall the Red Sox are 10-13 since the all-star break, with all but the Tigers series against the Rays, Jankees, and Blue Jays. 8 games at home and 15 on the road. The back of the envelope says that fangraphs game odds predicted they'd go 11.2-11.8 in this stretch. So they basically underperformed by one game.
('Jankees' was a typo, but I'm keeping it.)
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Post by greenmonster on Aug 10, 2021 14:13:18 GMT -5
Nothing they could do about it, but I wonder what this thread would have looked like had the sox schedule been different. At the time of the deadline, the Sox were in the midst of the brutal 17 games in 17 days all against the other three AL East contenders. More specifically the Sox were embarking on a fare that included 3 at Tampa, 3 at Detroit(who have been fairly solid for the last 3 months), 4 at toronto, 3 at home to Tampa. Really tough road. Meanwhile since we last saw them at Fenway, and taking three of four from them, the Yankees have had their feet up at Club Med. How about this stretch during which they have got fat and happy: 3 At Tampa 3 Home Marlins 3 Home Orioles 3 Home Mariners 3 at KC Had the Sox had this 15 game run in the middle of the deadline and went say 10-5, and broke down three weeks after the deadline, would we still attributer the meltdown to the deadline? Overall the Red Sox are 10-13 since the all-star break, with all but the Tigers series against the Rays, Jankees, and Blue Jays. 8 games at home and 15 on the road. The back of the envelope says that fangraphs game odds predicted they'd go 11.2-11.8 in this stretch. So they basically underperformed by one game. ('Jankees' was a typo, but I'm keeping it.)
The 10-13 does include 2 gifts from the Yankees series.... Could easily be 8-15 without four wild pitches in one inning.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 10, 2021 14:38:01 GMT -5
Overall the Red Sox are 10-13 since the all-star break, with all but the Tigers series against the Rays, Jankees, and Blue Jays. 8 games at home and 15 on the road. The back of the envelope says that fangraphs game odds predicted they'd go 11.2-11.8 in this stretch. So they basically underperformed by one game. ('Jankees' was a typo, but I'm keeping it.)
The 10-13 does include 2 gifts from the Yankees series.... Could easily be 8-15 without four wild pitches in one inning. It's true that if different things had happened their record could have been different. It could also be 13-10 if not for a couple bloops in the other Yankees game at Fenway and just a skosh more BABIP help in their 1-run losses to the Rays and Jays.
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Post by juanpena on Aug 10, 2021 15:10:45 GMT -5
Overall the Red Sox are 10-13 since the all-star break, with all but the Tigers series against the Rays, Jankees, and Blue Jays. 8 games at home and 15 on the road. The back of the envelope says that fangraphs game odds predicted they'd go 11.2-11.8 in this stretch. So they basically underperformed by one game. ('Jankees' was a typo, but I'm keeping it.)
The 10-13 does include 2 gifts from the Yankees series.... Could easily be 8-15 without four wild pitches in one inning. In the game with the wild pitches, they were down a run with the ghost runner at second and their best hitters due up. They had a great chance to at least tie with no help. And every team gets some gift wins in a season. NESN has replayed that 2007 Mother's Day Miracle game roughly a million times.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 10, 2021 15:15:22 GMT -5
The 10-13 does include 2 gifts from the Yankees series.... Could easily be 8-15 without four wild pitches in one inning. In the game with the wild pitches, they were down a run with the ghost runner at second and their best hitters due up. They had a great chance to at least tie with no help. And every team gets some gift wins in a season. NESN has replayed that 2007 Mother's Day Miracle game roughly a million times. I was at that game. It was awful, until it wasn't
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 10, 2021 21:46:39 GMT -5
This is who the Sox are. Not the Sox from the first month and a half of the season.
No amount of trades would fix this dumpster Fire.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2021 21:56:04 GMT -5
This is who the Sox are. Not the Sox from the first month and a half of the season. No amount of trades would fix this dumpster Fire. You keep singing the same song. I dont see how not getting a couple of good relievers wouldnt have helped an overworked bullpen. The bullpen got no help and it amplified the problem.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 10, 2021 21:58:53 GMT -5
This is who the Sox are. Not the Sox from the first month and a half of the season. No amount of trades would fix this dumpster Fire. You keep singing the same song. I dont see how not getting a couple of good relievers wouldnt have helped an overworked bullpen. The bullpen got no help and it amplified the problem. If it was just the BP I would agree. JDM/Xander/Barnes/Vaz just to name 4 players are all under performing the past few months. Who should bloom have traded for to fix those black holes?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2021 22:14:14 GMT -5
You keep singing the same song. I dont see how not getting a couple of good relievers wouldnt have helped an overworked bullpen. The bullpen got no help and it amplified the problem. If it was just the BP I would agree. JDM/Xander/Barnes/Vaz just to name 4 players are all under performing the past few months. Who should bloom have traded for to fix those black holes? So Bloom should have predicted that X and JDM would struggle? C'mon. Barnes is gassed. They could have used another high leverage arm. Not doing so had a bad effect on Barnes. Vazquez sucking only means more playing time for Plawecki who hasn't sucked. Maybe reinforcements wouldnt have mattered, but please spare me the "Bloom knew this team was going to implode" nonsense as an excuse not to get a serviceable 1b and a decent 6th inning reliever and a good high leverage reliever.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 10, 2021 22:15:20 GMT -5
If it was just the BP I would agree. JDM/Xander/Barnes/Vaz just to name 4 players are all under performing the past few months. Who should bloom have traded for to fix those black holes? So Bloom should have predicted that X and JDM would struggle? C'mon. Barnes is gassed. They could have used another high leverage arm. Not doing so had a bad effect on Barnes. Vazquez sucking only means more playing time for Plawecki who hasn't sucked. Maybe reinforcements wouldnt have mattered, but please spare me the "Bloom knew this team was going to implode" nonsense. I take it you didn’t see my spreadsheets up thread. The above players have been in a downward trend since June. And I assume their scouts and stat machines can see the same. As of 8/1 Nathan Eovaldi is the only sox pitcher to have an ERA under 4 in both June and July as of 8/1 the only Red sox batter with an OBP over .350 in June and July is Rafael Devers... thats it. And no. I don’t think bloom knew this team was going to implode. What I am saying is he saw that the team had way to many holes to fix and it was not worth raiding the farm system to do it.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2021 22:19:18 GMT -5
So Bloom should have predicted that X and JDM would struggle? C'mon. Barnes is gassed. They could have used another high leverage arm. Not doing so had a bad effect on Barnes. Vazquez sucking only means more playing time for Plawecki who hasn't sucked. Maybe reinforcements wouldnt have mattered, but please spare me the "Bloom knew this team was going to implode" nonsense. I take it you didn’t see my spreadsheets up thread. The above players have been in a downward trend since June. And I assume their scouts and stat machines can see the same. Players have crappy months and rebound. It's not that shocking if there are struggles. Doesnt mean some players can't pick it back up. Again, you're telling me that Bloom, when the Sox had the best record in the league, looked at his team, said they're overachievers who will tank so they're not worth improving? I call BS to that.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 10, 2021 22:31:20 GMT -5
I take it you didn’t see my spreadsheets up thread. The above players have been in a downward trend since June. And I assume their scouts and stat machines can see the same. Players have crappy months and rebound. It's not that shocking if there are struggles. Doesnt mean some players can't pick it back up. Again, you're telling me that Bloom, when the Sox had the best record in the league, looked at his team, said they're overachievers who will tank so they're not worth improving? I call BS to that. Perhaps he thought the cost to improve every area was not worth it. Yes. (Catcher, DH etc) And outside of Rizzo (who now has COVID and is not helping the Yankees) what other 1B could we have traded for? Cron for Colorado would have Been a nice get, but the Rockies are one of the worst run teams in the league (as we all saw when story torched the team and the owners for not trading him.)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2021 22:51:03 GMT -5
Players have crappy months and rebound. It's not that shocking if there are struggles. Doesnt mean some players can't pick it back up. Again, you're telling me that Bloom, when the Sox had the best record in the league, looked at his team, said they're overachievers who will tank so they're not worth improving? I call BS to that. Perhaps he thought the cost to improve every area was not worth it. Yes. (Catcher, DH etc) And outside of Rizzo (who now has COVID and is not helping the Yankees) what other 1B could we have traded for? Cron for Colorado would have Been a nice get, but the Rockies are one of the worst run teams in the league (as we all saw when story torched the team and the owners for not trading him.) You're using a false argument. Nobody is saying he should have replaced the whole team. That's silly. They had sub replacement level at 1b. They had poor starting that had 2 internal solutions on the way. So it makes sense to beef up an overworked pen. Perhaps Josh Bell could have helped at 1b and Washington was trading guys. I was hoping for Daniel Hudson for the pen. Would have liked Raisel Iglesias as well.
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