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Trade deadline (2021): thoughts/strategy/predictions
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 10, 2021 23:00:59 GMT -5
Perhaps he thought the cost to improve every area was not worth it. Yes. (Catcher, DH etc) And outside of Rizzo (who now has COVID and is not helping the Yankees) what other 1B could we have traded for? Cron for Colorado would have Been a nice get, but the Rockies are one of the worst run teams in the league (as we all saw when story torched the team and the owners for not trading him.) You're using a false argument. Nobody is saying he should have replaced the whole team. That's silly. They had sub replacement level at 1b. They had poor starting that had 2 internal solutions on the way. So it makes sense to beef up an overworked pen. Perhaps Josh Bell could have helped at 1b and Washington was trading guys. I was hoping for Daniel Hudson for the pen. Would have liked Raisel Iglesias as well. Perhaps he asked about Bell and others but was turned off by the price.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2021 23:07:34 GMT -5
You're using a false argument. Nobody is saying he should have replaced the whole team. That's silly. They had sub replacement level at 1b. They had poor starting that had 2 internal solutions on the way. So it makes sense to beef up an overworked pen. Perhaps Josh Bell could have helped at 1b and Washington was trading guys. I was hoping for Daniel Hudson for the pen. Would have liked Raisel Iglesias as well. Perhaps he asked about Bell and others but was turned off by the price. Well if they wanted Casas or even Blaze I could understand it. There's about 8 to 10 guys I wouldnt trade. They might have asked for a guy I'd be ok with parting with but Bloom wasn't or maybe they wanted a guy we both wouldn't part with. You and I will never know which it is. I'm just pushing back on the narrative that Bloom saw a team that was going to implode and figured they weren't worth it. He could not have known they'd collapse so suddenly. That makes no sense.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 10, 2021 23:13:44 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 10, 2021 23:28:28 GMT -5
Yes, they've been bad since July 5th, but just because they have been so bad, particularly from the offense and even starting pitching point of view doesn't mean that they have to continue to suck until the season ends. All you've shown is that they're playing like crap. We all know this. It doesnt mean that it must continue. Teams have good and bad stretches throughout the season. If they'd remove their head from their sphincter maybe you can show us a graphic telling us how much the offense improved and the starting pitching improved since the rotation changes have occurred since Aug 13th. Maybe they do suck the rest of the season as I'm not feeling optimistic right now, but it's not like they have to suck the rest of the year.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 11, 2021 10:52:16 GMT -5
So Bloom should have predicted that X and JDM would struggle? C'mon. Barnes is gassed. They could have used another high leverage arm. Not doing so had a bad effect on Barnes. Vazquez sucking only means more playing time for Plawecki who hasn't sucked. Maybe reinforcements wouldnt have mattered, but please spare me the "Bloom knew this team was going to implode" nonsense. I take it you didn’t see my spreadsheets up thread. The above players have been in a downward trend since June. And I assume their scouts and stat machines can see the same. As of 8/1 Nathan Eovaldi is the only sox pitcher to have an ERA under 4 in both June and July as of 8/1 the only Red sox batter with an OBP over .350 in June and July is Rafael Devers... thats it. And no. I don’t think bloom knew this team was going to implode. What I am saying is he saw that the team had way to many holes to fix and it was not worth raiding the farm system to do it. Need some context on those: 1) There were 89 pitchers in MLB with at least 45 IP from 6/1 to 7/31, including all 5 Boston starters. 50 had ERAs below 4.00. So on average you'd expect them to perhaps have 2, so I don't think that's a fair standard. That said, of the 89, the other 4 were ranked 70, 79, 80, and 86 and all had ERAs over 5.00. THAT'S more of the problem. However, Rodriguez continued to be pretty unlucky (3.17 FIP, which is 15th among the 89). It's Pivetta (5.19 FIP, 76th), Perez (6.03 FIP, 85th) and Richards (6.53 FIP, 87th) who were the problem. But again... they are replacing the latter two with Houck and Sale. It's not like they were stubbornly sticking with the same 5 guys. 2) As for hitters, 149 qualified, Sox had 7. 58 such hitters had an OBP above .350, so you'd expect 2. And Hernandez had one right at .350, so Sox were where they should be. They had 4 above .330 when there were 89 in baseball, so they were ahead of the curve at that cutoff. Indeed, for June/July, they had 5 hitters with wRC+ 108 or higher. The problem is that in July, Bogaerts and Verdugo have fallen off and JDM has been merely good. Devers and Hernandez have continued to hit very well (170 and 153 wRC+, respectively). But yeah, the problem wasn't June.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 11, 2021 11:09:37 GMT -5
If it was just the BP I would agree. JDM/Xander/Barnes/Vaz just to name 4 players are all under performing the past few months. Who should bloom have traded for to fix those black holes? So Bloom should have predicted that X and JDM would struggle? C'mon. Barnes is gassed. They could have used another high leverage arm. Not doing so had a bad effect on Barnes. Vazquez sucking only means more playing time for Plawecki who hasn't sucked. Maybe reinforcements wouldnt have mattered, but please spare me the "Bloom knew this team was going to implode" nonsense as an excuse not to get a serviceable 1b and a decent 6th inning reliever and a good high leverage reliever. Bloom wouldn't go over the luxury tax and or didn't want to give up any prospects for this team. I mean they gave up Aldo who might turn into a 5th starter and Schreff who people here loved but might turn into a middle reliever. If they were going to buy they could have beaten Phillys offer for Gibson and Kennedy easily without doing much damage to the farm. Dombrowski robbed Texas blind. You get those two on top of Schwarber it drastically changes the outlook. Now Schwarber is probably 2 weeks away due to the "minor" set back. The question becomes do the Sox want to risk Schwarber reinjuring himself by playing 1st base or do they just toss him into the outfield? His injury happened while practicing learning a new position. I said it before and I'll say it again if you weren't going to invest in this team they should have fielded offers on Eovaldi and ERod. Yeah it would have killed the vibe on this team (much like not addressing the pitching issues did) but at least you would have added more talent to the farm for Eovaldi and probably Erod while getting rid of the contract of Eovaldi. Major league team probably responds the same way as it is now anyways. Either path taken by the Sox would fail the current roster but at least that path helps the 2023-2024 teams. Not to mention that the Sox missed a golden opportunity last offseason to cash in on Christian Vazquez. Also why the hell is Richards Davis Perez and Robles still on the 40 man roster?
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 11, 2021 12:08:47 GMT -5
So Bloom should have predicted that X and JDM would struggle? C'mon. Barnes is gassed. They could have used another high leverage arm. Not doing so had a bad effect on Barnes. Vazquez sucking only means more playing time for Plawecki who hasn't sucked. Maybe reinforcements wouldnt have mattered, but please spare me the "Bloom knew this team was going to implode" nonsense as an excuse not to get a serviceable 1b and a decent 6th inning reliever and a good high leverage reliever. Bloom wouldn't go over the luxury tax and or didn't want to give up any prospects for this team. I mean they gave up Aldo who might turn into a 5th starter and Schreff who people here loved but might turn into a middle reliever. If they were going to buy they could have beaten Phillys offer for Gibson and Kennedy easily without doing much damage to the farm. Dombrowski robbed Texas blind. You get those two on top of Schwarber it drastically changes the outlook. Now Schwarber is probably 2 weeks away due to the "minor" set back. The question becomes do the Sox want to risk Schwarber reinjuring himself by playing 1st base or do they just toss him into the outfield? His injury happened while practicing learning a new position. I said it before and I'll say it again if you weren't going to invest in this team they should have fielded offers on Eovaldi and ERod. Yeah it would have killed the vibe on this team (much like not addressing the pitching issues did) but at least you would have added more talent to the farm for Eovaldi and probably Erod while getting rid of the contract of Eovaldi. Major league team probably responds the same way as it is now anyways. Either path taken by the Sox would fail the current roster but at least that path helps the 2023-2024 teams. Not to mention that the Sox missed a golden opportunity last offseason to cash in on Christian Vazquez. Also why the hell is Richards Davis Perez and Robles still on the 40 man roster? Do you have a source saying that Schwarber got hurt learning first? I haven't seen any that state that.
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Post by greenmonster on Aug 11, 2021 12:24:14 GMT -5
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 11, 2021 12:31:59 GMT -5
You could be right Or he could have hurt it running. Hard to tell.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 11, 2021 13:20:20 GMT -5
Yeah I don't understand why first base would carry more risk than the outfield for causing leg injuries.
It's like when people blame the Red Sox for Swihart getting hurt playing left field, like it was more dangerous than catching. Just because a guy gets hurt while playing a different position doesn't mean that playing the position is what caused the injury.
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 11, 2021 13:27:20 GMT -5
Yeah I don't understand why first base would carry more risk than the outfield for causing leg injuries. It's like when people blame the Red Sox for Swihart getting hurt playing left field, like it was more dangerous than catching. Just because a guy gets hurt while playing a different position doesn't mean that playing the position is what caused the injury. I suspect learning any new position increases chances of injury… but what are you supposed to do? *Not* move guys when you need them elsewhere? It is a totally worthwhile (small) risk.
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Post by greenmonster on Aug 12, 2021 10:55:01 GMT -5
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Post by blizzards39 on Aug 12, 2021 11:39:03 GMT -5
My guess is he’s with the Sox on Tuesday for MFY
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Post by incandenza on Aug 12, 2021 12:39:20 GMT -5
So far Yankees trade deadline additions have accounted for 0.3 fWAR, which breaks down as follows: Rizzo 0.3, Holmes 0.3, Gallo -0.1, Heaney -0.2.
Blue Jays additions have accounted for 0.3 fWAR: Berrios 0.3, Hand 0.0.
Red Sox additions have accounted for 0.2 fWAR: Davis 0.1, Robles 0.1, Schwarber 0.0.
Rays additions have accounted for 0.0 fWAR: Cruz 0.0.
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Post by soxinsf on Aug 12, 2021 14:12:32 GMT -5
My guess is he’s with the Sox on Tuesday for MFY We all can barely wait for the "savior of the season" to arrive (along with Sale, of course). I worry that both of them will not live up to expectations, and that we will be swimming in sadness yet again. Not that they are not great players, but think about it. One has not thrown a big league pitch in a year and a half and the other has not hit game pitching for a month and a half. If they hit the ground going full speed, it will be grand. But, we need to be realistic. Even if they do contribute, we need to not put the full weight of future Sox success on their shoulders. OK, enough of the big brother talk. Let's win ten in a row with Chris and Kyle.
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Post by trajanacc on Aug 12, 2021 14:58:41 GMT -5
So far Yankees trade deadline additions have accounted for 0.3 fWAR, which breaks down as follows: Rizzo 0.3, Holmes 0.3, Gallo -0.1, Heaney -0.2.
Blue Jays additions have accounted for 0.3 fWAR: Berrios 0.3, Hand 0.0.
Red Sox additions have accounted for 0.2 fWAR: Davis 0.1, Robles 0.1, Schwarber 0.0.
Rays additions have accounted for 0.0 fWAR: Cruz 0.0.
Yes but does this WAR you speak of take into account the magical feeling of confidence imbued by the front office to those teams by showing that they are "going for it?"
/s
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manfred
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Post by manfred on Aug 12, 2021 15:09:32 GMT -5
So far Yankees trade deadline additions have accounted for 0.3 fWAR, which breaks down as follows: Rizzo 0.3, Holmes 0.3, Gallo -0.1, Heaney -0.2.
Blue Jays additions have accounted for 0.3 fWAR: Berrios 0.3, Hand 0.0.
Red Sox additions have accounted for 0.2 fWAR: Davis 0.1, Robles 0.1, Schwarber 0.0.
Rays additions have accounted for 0.0 fWAR: Cruz 0.0.
Yes but does this WAR you speak of take into account the magical feeling of confidence imbued by the front office to those teams by showing that they are "going for it?"
/s
It is a little deceptive. Rizzo has been good as an everday guy, while Heaney got annihilated in one of his two starts. That almost negates in WAR terms, but in reality is a bit more difficult to view as a push. Similarly, Berrios has been quite good and filled a hole, while Hand has been, well, a reliever. This is a great example of WAR being meaningless. Would you say Davis and Robles have been almost as good an addition as Berrios?
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 12, 2021 15:24:58 GMT -5
My guess is he’s with the Sox on Tuesday for MFY We all can barely wait for the "savior of the season" to arrive (along with Sale, of course). I worry that both of them will not live up to expectations, and that we will be swimming in sadness yet again. Not that they are not great players, but think about it. One has not thrown a big league pitch in a year and a half and the other has not hit game pitching for a month and a half. If they hit the ground going full speed, it will be grand. But, we need to be realistic. Even if they do contribute, we need to not put the full weight of future Sox success on their shoulders. OK, enough of the big brother talk. Let's win ten in a row with Chris and Kyle. Schwarber can be a league average hitter and be a big upgrade at 1B/LF over Dalbec/Franchy/Gonzalez You don’t know what you’ll get with Sale but it’s going to be hard to be any worse than Perez or Richards.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 12, 2021 15:40:25 GMT -5
Yes but does this WAR you speak of take into account the magical feeling of confidence imbued by the front office to those teams by showing that they are "going for it?"
/s
It is a little deceptive. Rizzo has been good as an everday guy, while Heaney got annihilated in one of his two starts. That almost negates in WAR terms, but in reality is a bit more difficult to view as a push. Similarly, Berrios has been quite good and filled a hole, while Hand has been, well, a reliever. This is a great example of WAR being meaningless. Would you say Davis and Robles have been almost as good an addition as Berrios? Why is it difficult to view that as close to a push? Getting annihilated in a start is a huge negative for win expectancy, not much any position player can do that's equally impactful in a short period of time as totally blowing a start. Viewed another way, by WPA: NYY: Rizzo (+0.48), Heaney (-0.37), Gallo (+0.19), Holmes (+0.06) = +0.36 TOR: Berrios (+0.51), Hand (-.1) = +0.41 TBR: Cruz (-0.17) = -0.17 BOS: Robles (-0.04), Davis (-0.02) = -0.06 Thus far across all the deadline additions in the AL East the range of impact on actually winning a game (excluding any defensive impacts) has been just over half a win, between the Rays on the low end and Jays on the high end. For what it's worth, Houck, who many have been referring to as a quasi-deadline acquisition as been +0.59 in WPA since he returned to the sox in Mid-July, not counting whatever happens today, and if we were to include him the Red Sox easily come out ahead, and that's before Sale or Schwarber factor in.
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Post by trajanacc on Aug 12, 2021 16:39:15 GMT -5
I take it as more of an indication that, even though NYY and Toronto obviously added better baseball players than we did, the actual impact of those players on wins over the course of a few weeks is relatively small.
It’s easy when we are losing ground in the standings to see the trade deadline moves as the cause, but there are lots of other players on those teams.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 12, 2021 22:07:06 GMT -5
Yes but does this WAR you speak of take into account the magical feeling of confidence imbued by the front office to those teams by showing that they are "going for it?"
/s
It is a little deceptive. Rizzo has been good as an everday guy, while Heaney got annihilated in one of his two starts. That almost negates in WAR terms, but in reality is a bit more difficult to view as a push. Similarly, Berrios has been quite good and filled a hole, while Hand has been, well, a reliever. This is a great example of WAR being meaningless. Would you say Davis and Robles have been almost as good an addition as Berrios? I don't think any of the numbers mean all that much, but I do think they put in perspective the scale of effect we're talking about here. It's baseball, wherein there's so much luck involved that its effect can swamp talent for any individual player over the course of a third of a season, and even when it doesn't one player can only make so much of a difference.
Like Rizzo has been "good," but actually he just had two good games against the Marlins, and then he hit .185/.258/.296 for seven games, and then he got covid, and the Yankees will have been without his services for nearly as long as the Red Sox have been without Schwarber. Cruz has been below replacement level in his 3 weeks with the Rays. Whatever these guys contribute can be wiped out by a cold streak or a bout of bad BABIP.
For all the attention they get, any team's trade deadline moves amount to very slightly loading the dice in their favor; and since most teams are doing the same thing, it pretty much works out to a wash.
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Post by patford on Aug 13, 2021 8:04:48 GMT -5
A number of fans continue to be unhappy about the moves at the trade deadline. I'm one of them. The very moment I heard about the trade of Ramirez for Schwarber I was hotly opposed to it. And at the time I wasn't even aware Schwarber was hurt. The reason I was opposed is even at that time I saw no path for the Sox to win a WS other than acquiring Scherzer and a Chris Sale who came back as Chris Sale at his peak. Not to say I'd have supported a trade for Scherzer because we don't know what Sale will be and Scherzer has had some kind of issue with his triceps. Those factors coupled with Scherzer being a free agent and his likely cost made me less than enthused about the idea although I do think two dominant starters in the short series post season games can carry just about any sort of team to a WS title.
On the other hand a lot of fans think Bloom didn't do enough and I'm curious to know who fans think the Sox should have traded to acquire who ever it is they think the Sox should have traded for. I always have the feeling that fans tend to believe older prospects who are near their expatriation date are going to be desired by other teams where as in reality what selling teams want are young high upside prospects. So do fans really want to give up Casas, Bello and Jordan for a shot in the dark rental of Scherzer?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Aug 13, 2021 10:32:59 GMT -5
At least Gallo has a -0.2 WAR for the Yankees thus far. Silver lining.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 13, 2021 11:14:54 GMT -5
So far Yankees trade deadline additions have accounted for 0.3 fWAR, which breaks down as follows: Rizzo 0.3, Holmes 0.3, Gallo -0.1, Heaney -0.2.
Blue Jays additions have accounted for 0.3 fWAR: Berrios 0.3, Hand 0.0.
Red Sox additions have accounted for 0.2 fWAR: Davis 0.1, Robles 0.1, Schwarber 0.0.
Rays additions have accounted for 0.0 fWAR: Cruz 0.0.
Yes but does this WAR you speak of take into account the magical feeling of confidence imbued by the front office to those teams by showing that they are "going for it?"
/s
Yeah know when the moderators asked us to stop with the back and forth about players being human and having normal emotions about things I did as asked and stopped. But I see now that some of you want to continue that banter as you still feel the need to bring it up. This will be my last comment, sorry I lied before but I can't help myself, I'm human. I think it is funny if not annoying that you all think you know better than the players and coaches that actually play the games. Have any of you actually ever played or were you the waterboys? Countless players and coaches thru the years have spoken about this in all team sports but you guys know better I get it. I think I will just laugh at you rather than get annoyed.
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Post by trajanacc on Aug 13, 2021 11:39:58 GMT -5
Just because players “feel” something is helping them win doesn’t mean it necessarily is. Players are human, and just like the rest of us will construct narratives to easily explain cause and effect. Doesn’t necessarily make it true.
A pro baseball player is certainly an expert on baseball, and an expert on his own emotions, but this doesn’t necessarily make him an expert on predicting the outcome of future games they play in.
Can you prove that the feeling of confidence that players say they feel is actually predictive of future success?
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