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Trade deadline (2021): thoughts/strategy/predictions
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Post by soxjim on Aug 16, 2021 19:07:03 GMT -5
What I don't understand is that the Sox got a thumper in Schwarber, the GM said he's better than Rizzo and Bryant, and yet we continue to bat him 6th? Why??? What is wrong with 6th? The problem much of the year has been the length of the lineup. This helps — bigtime. I don't understand why you're asking me this question. Shouldn't you always want to give your better hitters the most at bats? I can understand having your best hitter 3rd or 4th-absoultley - so to drive in guys. But 6th is more toward the bottom than the top. To further that, he isn't potentially "just a little better" than Verdugo or Renfroe, is he? He's about a .900 OPS guy. He's their 2nd best lefty hitter. The past two years his stats have been a little less than JDM and Xander. Why are both Renfroe and Verdugo ahead of him when he is a better hitter - and at least you can have him hit 5th behind JDM and have that righty-lefty? In regards to extending the lineup - again I'm not sure what you're getting at. Wouldn't the Red Sox lineup still be "extended" if you put for example Schwarber 5th, and Renfroe 6th? It's not like it's that big of a deal but more like simple logic. And again Bloom specifically said Schwarber is better than Rizzo and Bryant. Apparently Cora isn't so impressed with Schwarber's hitting?
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Post by soxjim on Aug 16, 2021 19:08:42 GMT -5
Especially when 3/4/5 is Bogaerts, Devers, JDM. There doesn't seem to be many times they've put lefties back-to-back in the order, so with Devers hitting 4th it's either 2nd or 6th for Schwarber. But the 2spot is being taken by either Verdugo or - the last time Renfroe.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 16, 2021 19:16:19 GMT -5
Kiké's had the best OBP in the AL over the past 6 weeks, he's been great in the 1-spot. Not opposed to moving XB/RD/JDM to 2-4 and getting Schwarber into the 5-spot, but ideally I think we'd just move Verdugo back into the 2-spot and put Renfroe at 7. While I’ve biased towards the big four hitting 2-4, if Verdugo is back (and he’s been back lately) he looks pretty darn good in that 2 hole.
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Post by manfred on Aug 16, 2021 19:24:53 GMT -5
What is wrong with 6th? The problem much of the year has been the length of the lineup. This helps — bigtime. I don't understand why you're asking me this question. Shouldn't you always want to give your better hitters the most at bats? I can understand having your best hitter 3rd or 4th-absoultley - so to drive in guys. But 6th is more toward the bottom than the top. To further that, he isn't potentially "just a little better" than Verdugo or Renfroe, is he? He's about a .900 OPS guy. He's their 2nd best lefty hitter. The past two years his stats have been a little less than JDM and Xander. Why are both Renfroe and Verdugo ahead of him when he is a better hitter - and at least you can have him hit 5th behind JDM and have that righty-lefty? In regards to extending the lineup - again I'm not sure what you're getting at. Wouldn't the Red Sox lineup still be "extended" if you put for example Schwarber 5th, and Renfroe 6th? It's not like it's that big of a deal but more like simple logic. And again Bloom specifically said Schwarber is better than Rizzo and Bryant. Apparently Cora isn't so impressed with Schwarber's hitting? Yes, but there are composition matters, too. Verdugo is good in the second spot because of bat control. As someone said above, alternating RLRL is also a factor. But I think having a big hitter at 6th is a huge luxury.
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 16, 2021 19:57:01 GMT -5
Some times the debates on here just make me shake my head. Schwarber has been in the lineup for a hot minute..... give it a break!!!
What matters is how they lineup in the playoffs, right now they are just feeling things out. Give it a break please this is a stupid debate at the moment.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 16, 2021 20:35:27 GMT -5
I don't understand why you're asking me this question. Shouldn't you always want to give your better hitters the most at bats? I can understand having your best hitter 3rd or 4th-absoultley - so to drive in guys. But 6th is more toward the bottom than the top. To further that, he isn't potentially "just a little better" than Verdugo or Renfroe, is he? He's about a .900 OPS guy. He's their 2nd best lefty hitter. The past two years his stats have been a little less than JDM and Xander. Why are both Renfroe and Verdugo ahead of him when he is a better hitter - and at least you can have him hit 5th behind JDM and have that righty-lefty? In regards to extending the lineup - again I'm not sure what you're getting at. Wouldn't the Red Sox lineup still be "extended" if you put for example Schwarber 5th, and Renfroe 6th? It's not like it's that big of a deal but more like simple logic. And again Bloom specifically said Schwarber is better than Rizzo and Bryant. Apparently Cora isn't so impressed with Schwarber's hitting? Yes, but there are composition matters, too. Verdugo is good in the second spot because of bat control. As someone said above, alternating RLRL is also a factor. But I think having a big hitter at 6th is a huge luxury. Well - I just don't understand "composition." I don't know what that really means other than personal preference. Give me the better hitter any day every day. "Bat control" can be 6 or 7 too. And they weren't alternating right/left when they put Renfroe 2nd. So it's not being used consistently if that were the case. How much "bat control" does he possess over say - Xander? He doesn't. Why does the 2nd spot need "bat control" - and doesn't Xander have enough "bat control" anyway? Why not give Xander more at bats in a game rather than Verdugo or Renfroe? Well we can disagree. I think having your best hitters 1-5 is better luxury than sticking him at 6.
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Post by soxjim on Aug 16, 2021 20:37:36 GMT -5
Some times the debates on here just make me shake my head. Schwarber has been in the lineup for a hot minute..... give it a break!!! What matters is how they lineup in the playoffs, right now they are just feeling things out. Give it a break please this is a stupid debate at the moment. Sometimes some posters need to chill. I just asked a question. Please chill. I asked a harmless question just wondering "Why?" Is it that big of a deal that you need to make this type of reply?
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 16, 2021 20:38:49 GMT -5
The difference between which of Schwarber vs. Verdugo bats 2nd or 6th when they are both in the lineup is very unlikely to matter with the time left this season, at least not in any predictable way (there's plausibly situations that arise where it would be better to have Schwarber batting 2nd in the lineup or batting 6th depending on how game situations develop).
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Post by soxjim on Aug 16, 2021 20:46:17 GMT -5
The difference between which of Schwarber vs. Verdugo bats 2nd or 6th when they are both in the lineup is very unlikely to matter with the time left this season, at least not in any predictable way (there's plausibly situations that arise where it would be better to have Schwarber batting 2nd in the lineup or batting 6th depending on how game situations develop). Ughhh okay I'll stop. There was no game discussion tonight anyways. I still don't understand why not having Xander bat 2nd. It can't be righty-lefty because in the past game they put Renfroe 2nd. The question was the combination of Verdugo/Renfroe- not just Verdugo, and why not use the better hitter? I'll stop.
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Aug 16, 2021 20:51:28 GMT -5
One midseason trade acquisition we're not talking about enough: The regression-to-the-mean Eddie Rodriguez
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Post by voiceofreason on Aug 17, 2021 6:34:34 GMT -5
Some times the debates on here just make me shake my head. Schwarber has been in the lineup for a hot minute..... give it a break!!! What matters is how they lineup in the playoffs, right now they are just feeling things out. Give it a break please this is a stupid debate at the moment. Sometimes some posters need to chill. I just asked a question. Please chill. I asked a harmless question just wondering "Why?" Is it that big of a deal that you need to make this type of reply? My apologies, you are correct my reply was a little harsh. I shouldn't have used the word stupid. And just because I don't see the need for a certain discussion doesn't give me license to criticize. But maybe that is my thoughts on it, it is too soon and it will work it's self out. Heck what would be great is if Schwarber starts mashing like he did in June and they need to put him at 4 or 5.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 17, 2021 9:51:32 GMT -5
There can be a new lineup every game. Decisions are not made to be permanent.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,681
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 17, 2021 10:40:34 GMT -5
One midseason trade acquisition we're not talking about enough: The regression-to-the-mean Eddie Rodriguez In Eddie's case, wouldn't that be a progression-to-the-mean instead of a regression-to-the-mean?
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mobaz
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Posts: 2,791
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Post by mobaz on Aug 17, 2021 12:35:31 GMT -5
One midseason trade acquisition we're not talking about enough: The regression-to-the-mean Eddie Rodriguez In Eddie's case, wouldn't that be a progression-to-the-mean instead of a regression-to-the-mean? Can you just gress?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 17, 2021 13:12:42 GMT -5
One midseason trade acquisition we're not talking about enough: The regression-to-the-mean Eddie Rodriguez In Eddie's case, wouldn't that be a progression-to-the-mean instead of a regression-to-the-mean? Depends if we're talking about his goodness or badness.
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redsox04071318champs
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Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 15,681
Member is Online
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 17, 2021 16:25:30 GMT -5
In Eddie's case, wouldn't that be a progression-to-the-mean instead of a regression-to-the-mean? Can you just gress? I guess?
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 29, 2021 15:28:37 GMT -5
Since the deadline for the complainers:
Rizzo 0.1 fWAR 95 wRC+ Schwarber 0.7 fWAR 217 wRC+
and just for fun Dalbec 210 wRC+ (cannot find WAR in a date range on same team)
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Post by jdb on Aug 29, 2021 16:19:50 GMT -5
I’ve seen enough that I want to resign him and It will be interesting to see his market. It could explode if there is an NL DH but he was non tendered and didn’t break the bank with Washington. Is a 2 year in that 12-15 per or can he get 4 years?
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Post by incandenza on Aug 29, 2021 16:31:19 GMT -5
Since the deadline for the complainers: Rizzo 0.1 fWAR 95 wRC+ Schwarber 0.7 fWAR 217 wRC+ and just for fun Dalbec 210 wRC+ (cannot find WAR in a date range on same team) You can infer it by going to his graphs page and setting a 23-game rolling average. He's at 0.9 fWAR since the trade deadline.
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Post by jmei on Aug 29, 2021 16:34:02 GMT -5
Just personal preference, but even when I agree with the underlying point of view, I find “I told you so” posts slightly distasteful.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 29, 2021 17:10:16 GMT -5
Just personal preference, but even when I agree with the underlying point of view, I find “I told you so” posts slightly distasteful. My hope is that at least one person can look back and change their future perspective. So many people act like they are absolutely right about things before winding up wrong. Maybe even wait and see what happens before acting like the world is ending.
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cdj
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Posts: 14,138
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Post by cdj on Aug 30, 2021 5:01:02 GMT -5
I’m cool with it after the multitude of ruined gdt’s, this is something those posters need to keep seeing imo
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Post by incandenza on Aug 30, 2021 12:53:38 GMT -5
One thing about the Schwarber/Dalbec/Rizzo comparisons is it goes to show the opportunity cost of going all in on a guy with a fixed position. If they'd traded for Rizzo he'd be the everyday first baseman and that's it. We never would have had the chance to see the Dalbec breakout. By getting Schwarber and then being willing to play him at 1B as well as LF and DH they were able to hedge their bets. Schwarber displaces Dalbec sometimes, but other times he displaces Arroyo/whomever is still standing at 2B, or he lets JD have a day off, or he replaces Renfroe against a RHP.
People got it in their heads that the team needed a first baseman and since they didn't get the platonic ideal of a first baseman they failed. But I don't know how many times Bloom has to explain his own thinking, and demonstrate it by his actions, that he has a much more fluid conception of roster-building than that. Not that he's beyond criticism, but it would have been nice for people to at least acknowledge the logic of adding Schwarber rather than Rizzo, especially considering the massive difference in prospect cost.
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Post by vokuhila on Aug 30, 2021 13:55:34 GMT -5
One thing about the Schwarber/Dalbec/Rizzo comparisons is it goes to show the opportunity cost of going all in on a guy with a fixed position. If they'd traded for Rizzo he'd be the everyday first baseman and that's it. We never would have had the chance to see the Dalbec breakout. By getting Schwarber and then being willing to play him at 1B as well as LF and DH they were able to hedge their bets. Schwarber displaces Dalbec sometimes, but other times he displaces Arroyo/whomever is still standing at 2B, or he lets JD have a day off, or he replaces Renfroe against a RHP. People got it in their heads that the team needed a first baseman and since they didn't get the platonic ideal of a first baseman they failed. But I don't know how many times Bloom has to explain his own thinking, and demonstrate it by his actions, that he has a much more fluid conception of roster-building than that. Not that he's beyond criticism, but it would have been nice for people to at least acknowledge the logic of adding Schwarber rather than Rizzo, especially considering the massive difference in prospect cost.
1. Let's call it a "hot streak" rather than a "breakout" Don't get me wrong, I enjoy his .400 BABIP fueled rampage as much as the next RS fan. Let's enjoy it while it lasts! He has a shot a finishing the year with a positive WAR...that's more than most of us expected. 2. Well...yes...because it made all the sense in the world. I would have liked to see a "real" 1B acquisition. We only learned after the deadline what CB learned before: there weren't many available (basically just Rizzo at a very high price). I think CB just accepted that and got creative...which lead to Schwarber and his exceptional 0.6 WAR for the RS. Nicely done!
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Post by incandenza on Aug 30, 2021 14:33:14 GMT -5
One thing about the Schwarber/Dalbec/Rizzo comparisons is it goes to show the opportunity cost of going all in on a guy with a fixed position. If they'd traded for Rizzo he'd be the everyday first baseman and that's it. We never would have had the chance to see the Dalbec breakout. By getting Schwarber and then being willing to play him at 1B as well as LF and DH they were able to hedge their bets. Schwarber displaces Dalbec sometimes, but other times he displaces Arroyo/whomever is still standing at 2B, or he lets JD have a day off, or he replaces Renfroe against a RHP. People got it in their heads that the team needed a first baseman and since they didn't get the platonic ideal of a first baseman they failed. But I don't know how many times Bloom has to explain his own thinking, and demonstrate it by his actions, that he has a much more fluid conception of roster-building than that. Not that he's beyond criticism, but it would have been nice for people to at least acknowledge the logic of adding Schwarber rather than Rizzo, especially considering the massive difference in prospect cost.
1. Let's call it a "hot streak" rather than a "breakout" Don't get me wrong, I enjoy his .400 BABIP fueled rampage as much as the next RS fan. Let's enjoy it while it lasts! He has a shot a finishing the year with a positive WAR...that's more than most of us expected. 2. Well...yes...because it made all the sense in the world. I would have liked to see a "real" 1B acquisition. We only learned after the deadline what CB learned before: there weren't many available (basically just Rizzo at a very high price). I think CB just accepted that and got creative...which lead to Schwarber and his exceptional 0.6 WAR for the RS. Nicely done!On point 2... I think you're right about all of that. Heck, even I thought they'd get a mid-tier first baseman. But then Bloom got Schwarber and I was like "Well that's a heck of a lot better than Jonathan Schoop!" A lot of people reacted, though, as if they'd rather have gotten Jonathan Schoop, so fixated were they on the idea that the team needed a first baseman.
On point 1... Yes, he could still fall back to earth! And in fact I'll go out on a limb and predict he *won't* maintain his 200 wRC+ that he's had in August, lol. The thing is, though, that he's up to a 99 wRC+ for the season. And you mention BABIP but in fact his wOBA still hasn't caught up to his xwOBA. SSS aside, his large sample sizes are looking better and better. Since April 11th - not exactly deep into the season! - he has a .787 OPS and a 107 wRC+. He's flat out been a better hitter than Rizzo over nearly the last 4 months. In fact he has a higher wRC+ than Rizzo since the start of 2020 - i.e., since his career began.
ADD: Don't get me wrong - if I had to wager money, I'd put it on Rizzo being better than Dalbec for the rest of the season. But Dalbec has been better by so much in August that it's going to be really hard for Rizzo to end up with better post-trade deadline stats overall.
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