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Post by incandenza on Jul 26, 2021 10:56:15 GMT -5
I'm confused by this "maybe Fabian or Hickey won't sign" talk. What every knowledgeable person said before the draft, here and elsewhere, was that if a guy is taken in rounds 1-10, it's a safe bet that they'll sign. And also that signing bonuses are basically agreed on before the guys are drafted. If they're just hashing out details right now, then no problem, but to actually not sign one of these guys? Seems to go against what everyone was saying would happen...
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 26, 2021 11:04:42 GMT -5
I'm confused by this "maybe Fabian or Hickey won't sign" talk. What every knowledgeable person said before the draft, here and elsewhere, was that if a guy is taken in rounds 1-10, it's a safe bet that they'll sign. And also that signing bonuses are basically agreed on before the guys are drafted. If they're just hashing out details right now, then no problem, but to actually not sign one of these guys? Seems to go against what everyone was saying would happen... This^. We'll find out shortly but until and unless that deadline passes and they don't sign someone from the first 10 rounds I'm assuming they are signing them all. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 26, 2021 11:21:08 GMT -5
I'm confused by this "maybe Fabian or Hickey won't sign" talk. What every knowledgeable person said before the draft, here and elsewhere, was that if a guy is taken in rounds 1-10, it's a safe bet that they'll sign. And also that signing bonuses are basically agreed on before the guys are drafted. If they're just hashing out details right now, then no problem, but to actually not sign one of these guys? Seems to go against what everyone was saying would happen... The way I look at it is there's the rule and then the exception. Generally speaking, teams sign their top ten picks, the Sox included. However, it's not completely unprecedented and it would be plausible that the Sox are going to fail to sign one of their top 10 this year. I don't think they're in any immediate danger of that happening. Someone, somwhere is posturing and when the deadline approaches the Sox very well may end up signing both Hickey and Fabian. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 26, 2021 11:32:25 GMT -5
I am going to choose to believe that Fabian and Hickey are just the only two draftees that didn't take an extremely agreeable posture during negotiations, and that they're making sure that they suck the bonus pool dry. Might be relevant that they're teammates.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 26, 2021 12:16:16 GMT -5
Gosh I wish we could use Fabian’s money for Green If they don't sign Fabian, his slot money is removed from the pool. Do you mean the excess money saved on the other signings? |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 26, 2021 12:21:49 GMT -5
The only way Green is an option is if Fabian and Hickey are signing for Slot and Green would take 957K. It doesn't sound like one of those things will happen let alone all three. At this point, I think we can consider Green a pipe dream. (probably should have been there a few weeks ago).
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Post by jchang on Jul 26, 2021 14:41:00 GMT -5
I am leaning towards Fabian signing for the max we have left, assuming Hickey doesn't sign, say 2.6M. However much Fabian thinks his upside potential for 2022 is top 10, achieving his current ranking, 23, 27 & 37 of all draft eligible prospects for 2021 is already an incredible achievement. If many things go right for him, and almost nothing goes wrong, then perhaps a higher rank in 2022. But a real probability, any injury, is a lower rank. Given that he will be a high profile player, every team he play will scout the heck out of him for known weaknesses. The sox remaining budget of 2.6M is slot 26/27 money, pretty damn good. Don't gamble that for a risk laden shot at high 4M. Usually, taking a risk makes sense only if the gain is much larger than 2X.
I am thinking the Sox have a offer to Fabian, if he does not accept sometime before the deadline + room, then the spare cap space, currently $720k gets split between Kavadas and Green, as each would warrant around $400K. Hickey's offer should be slot or possibly slot + 5%.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 26, 2021 16:18:52 GMT -5
I'm confused by this "maybe Fabian or Hickey won't sign" talk. What every knowledgeable person said before the draft, here and elsewhere, was that if a guy is taken in rounds 1-10, it's a safe bet that they'll sign. And also that signing bonuses are basically agreed on before the guys are drafted. If they're just hashing out details right now, then no problem, but to actually not sign one of these guys? Seems to go against what everyone was saying would happen... 1) It's not that they agree on bonuses, but rather the team knows the asking price. There are certainly instances where that happens but it's not the rule - the rule is that the team will ask the player's price before popping them. 2) The bonuses have been kind of surprising for the guys who did sign. Mayer took slot but I don't know if anyone saw, for example, ERC getting $500k or Miller getting $200k (Callis on our podcast called him an underslot guy). The new Fabian/Hickey concern is based on the reporting that both will require overslot bonuses and there not being a ton of money left in the pool. We'll see what happens - maybe the Red Sox are planning to call one and/or the other's bluff and they needed to know exactly how much money they had before doing so. There's a lot of wait-and-see here, it's just trying to read the tea leaves. |
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Post by ramireja on Jul 26, 2021 16:23:45 GMT -5
VT already posted on all of these, but just following up with Callis confirmation and accounting trick factored in:
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Post by jchang on Jul 26, 2021 16:32:05 GMT -5
I'm confused by this "maybe Fabian or Hickey won't sign" talk. What every knowledgeable person said before the draft, here and elsewhere, was that if a guy is taken in rounds 1-10, it's a safe bet that they'll sign. And also that signing bonuses are basically agreed on before the guys are drafted. If they're just hashing out details right now, then no problem, but to actually not sign one of these guys? Seems to go against what everyone was saying would happen... 1) It's not that they agree on bonuses, but rather the team knows the asking price. There are certainly instances where that happens but it's not the rule - the rule is that the team will ask the player's price before popping them. 2) The bonuses have been kind of surprising for the guys who did sign. Mayer took slot but I don't know if anyone saw, for example, ERC getting $500k or Miller getting $200k (Callis on our podcast called him an underslot guy). The new Fabian/Hickey concern is based on the reporting that both will require overslot bonuses and there not being a ton of money left in the pool. We'll see what happens - maybe the Red Sox are planning to call one and/or the other's bluff and they needed to know exactly how much money they had before doing so. There's a lot of wait-and-see here, it's just trying to read the tea leaves. I think only Mookie and Ockimey were unranked when drafted to a good bonus (450K+) |
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art
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Post by art on Jul 26, 2021 19:20:16 GMT -5
I am going to choose to believe that Fabian and Hickey are just the only two draftees that didn't take an extremely agreeable posture during negotiations, and that they're making sure that they suck the bonus pool dry. Might be relevant that they're teammates. Do they have the same agent/adviser? They shouldn't. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 26, 2021 19:25:00 GMT -5
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 26, 2021 19:25:58 GMT -5
Well that sucks and makes this draft look quite a bit different if it's not just posturing. |
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Post by alan on Jul 26, 2021 19:33:15 GMT -5
At least we get the pick back next year but damn |
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 26, 2021 19:36:32 GMT -5
Not a great look for Chaim if we're being honest. You had to know beforehand that it was gonna take 3 to get it done and if you weren't comfortable going to 3 you can't still take him and lose all that slot money. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 26, 2021 19:37:46 GMT -5
Whatever I’ll take the 41st pick next year, it’s all Mayer and gravy here
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 26, 2021 19:38:37 GMT -5
This could get more complicated with the upcoming trade deadline and the Red Sox close to the luxury tax threshold. Could their 2021 2nd round pick carryover to 2022 be at risk if the Red Sox exceed the luxury tax threshold?
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 26, 2021 19:39:49 GMT -5
So he asked for 3 million, the Red Sox took him with the plan of daring him to turn down 2.5, and then he got mad and walked home. Something like that?
Doesn't really hurt the Red Sox in the end.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 26, 2021 19:40:38 GMT -5
Not a great look for Chaim if we're being honest. You had to know beforehand that it was gonna take 3 to get it done and if you weren't comfortable going to 3 you can't still take him and lose all that slot money. If we're being honest, Chaim and crew known what they're doing. |
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 26, 2021 19:42:14 GMT -5
Not getting Fabian is disappointing. I like his potential. I feel like this may come back to bite him though. He’s taking a big risk. Get Hickey signed and hope that the bat is as good as some think.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 26, 2021 19:43:05 GMT -5
They're kinda forced to give Jud's buddy Nate a huge overslot bonus now.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Jul 26, 2021 19:43:31 GMT -5
If he goes back to school and doesn’t absolutely rake then bullet dodged. If he does then that stinks but oh well we have a nice draft pool next year
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 26, 2021 19:47:05 GMT -5
Power to him, for his sake hopefully he cuts down on his Ks and goes higher than 40 next year. Pick 41 in next years draft isn't a half bad consolation in this scenario for the sox.
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Post by evanstonredsox on Jul 26, 2021 19:50:06 GMT -5
Are we that confident they won’t be able to sign Payton Green now? Everyone labeled him as “Fabian insurance” at the pick. Seems like if they knew Fabian may not sign, they’d at least take a high schooler who’s price they knew they could meet with the extra money.
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Post by benogliviesbrother on Jul 26, 2021 19:54:52 GMT -5
Whatever I’ll take the 41st pick next year, it’s all Mayer and gravy here Plus another 2022 2nd rounder? I don't know how it works. |
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