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2021 Draft Signing Period
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Post by jlechan on Jul 25, 2021 20:21:46 GMT -5
Based on what I've heard, everyone probably needs to get the idea of Green out of their heads. I just don't see how it works. Hickey's price tag is higher than you'd think. They can sign Fabian for like $2.6m+ but that'd leave slot for Hickey which is unlikely to get it done. They simply will not have $1M to sign Green unless both Fabian and Hickey come way down. Based on the way this all worked out, I think Hickey might be the Fabian insurance. Tough to understand why Hickey thinks he should get above slot. He was selected right where his BA and MLB ranking projected him to go. Seems like he should be a right at slot guy. |
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Post by texs31 on Jul 25, 2021 20:26:07 GMT -5
Based on what I've heard, everyone probably needs to get the idea of Green out of their heads. I just don't see how it works. Hickey's price tag is higher than you'd think. They can sign Fabian for like $2.6m+ but that'd leave slot for Hickey which is unlikely to get it done. They simply will not have $1M to sign Green unless both Fabian and Hickey come way down. Based on the way this all worked out, I think Hickey might be the Fabian insurance. Tough to understand why Hickey thinks he should get above slot. He was selected right where his BA and MLB ranking projected him to go. Seems like he should be a right at slot guy. Bonuses arent just about rankings. Leverage factors in and as a draft eligible sophomore, Hickey has some. |
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 25, 2021 20:35:52 GMT -5
I just feel like they wouldn't/shouldn't have drafted Fabian (or Hickey, or even Kavadas for that matter) without knowing what it would take to sign them and whether or not it was available. An obvious exception being if they changed their mind down the line. I also thought that if they drafted Kavadas that that was a sign that they had money left to spend from their top 10.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 25, 2021 20:46:02 GMT -5
I just feel like they wouldn't/shouldn't have drafted Fabian (or Hickey, or even Kavadas for that matter) without knowing what it would take to sign them and whether or not it was available. An obvious exception being if they changed their mind down the line. I also thought that if they drafted Kavadas that that was a sign that they had money left to spend from their top 10. 1) Nobody is saying they didn't know. They also might know what they're comfortable signing him for. 2) I'm beginning to think Hickey was drafted as the first insurance option if Fabian didn't sign/as a guy whose bluff they call with whatever money they have left after signing Fabian. 3) As a senior, Kavadas is unlikely to need much, if anything, over slot. |
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Post by pasadenasox on Jul 25, 2021 20:51:37 GMT -5
I just feel like they wouldn't/shouldn't have drafted Fabian (or Hickey, or even Kavadas for that matter) without knowing what it would take to sign them and whether or not it was available. An obvious exception being if they changed their mind down the line. I also thought that if they drafted Kavadas that that was a sign that they had money left to spend from their top 10. 1) Nobody is saying they didn't know. They also might know what they're comfortable signing him for. 2) I'm beginning to think Hickey was drafted as the first insurance option if Fabian didn't sign/as a guy whose bluff they call with whatever money they have left after signing Fabian. 3) As a senior, Kavadas is unlikely to need much, if anything, over slot. Kavadas can go back for one more, though, no? The COVID senior thing, IIRC? Not that I want him to, I'm already irrationally attached. |
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Post by juanpena on Jul 25, 2021 21:04:34 GMT -5
I would have preferred Jaden Hill in the second round. It would have been a chance to get the best player in the draft and an elite pitching prospect -- albeit one you're going to have to wait until spring 2023 to get him on the mound -- and have more money to throw at tough signs.
Hopefully they think they can fix Fabian, who got better later in the season but still not great.
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 25, 2021 21:17:25 GMT -5
I do enjoy thinking about how we often love prospects on draft night and fanboy over them and then hate them for taking money (that isn't ours) to sign them and then go back to loving or hating them as they progress through our system. It is also interesting to look through our draft history page and look at the bonuses players got and how they have performed and progressed relative to others. There are a number of big names from draft nights over the past decade that nobody talks about now.
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 25, 2021 21:34:58 GMT -5
If it comes down to it, Hickey + Makeup 2022 2nd rounder + Maybe Guerrero? vs Fabian isn't like, a slam dunk for Fabian.
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 25, 2021 23:58:12 GMT -5
I would have preferred Jaden Hill in the second round. It would have been a chance to get the best player in the draft and an elite pitching prospect -- albeit one you're going to have to wait until spring 2023 to get him on the mound -- and have more money to throw at tough signs. Hopefully they think they can fix Fabian, who got better later in the season but still not great. Even beyond the injury concerns, it's not at all clear to me that Jaden Hill is someone with a better chance of being the best player in the draft than Jud Fabian. The stuff has always been tantalizing on paper, but the fastball plays way down. The secondaries show enough to dream on, but he's going to take some "fixing" just like Fabian. |
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 26, 2021 1:10:23 GMT -5
It could be that they need to have a guaranteed clearing of some $$ lower before they can finalize Fabian. It's not always obvious what the sequence has to be to keep from having a lower order player holding penalties over the Sox head.
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Post by auger1 on Jul 26, 2021 5:55:20 GMT -5
Based on what I've heard, everyone probably needs to get the idea of Green out of their heads. I just don't see how it works. Hickey's price tag is higher than you'd think. They can sign Fabian for like $2.6m+ but that'd leave slot for Hickey which is unlikely to get it done. They simply will not have $1M to sign Green unless both Fabian and Hickey come way down. Based on the way this all worked out, I think Hickey might be the Fabian insurance. This is kind of weird to me. Is it normal to draft a back up plan for your 2nd round pick? Furthermore, is it normal to draft that back up plan within the first 10 rounds? I would think you would want to draft a backup plan after round 10 for bonus pool purposes |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 26, 2021 6:44:10 GMT -5
At this point, I feel like we may not hear about Fabian/Hickey/Kavadas until the deadline. They know there's a finite amount of money left and everyone is in a hurry up and wait mode.
If Hickey signed for slot the Sox could give a lot of money to Fabian, but if they fail to sign him they can't go over $2.67 million. Sox may or may not want to throw that number at him now if Hickey is demanding over slot.
I think it's very plausible some guys come down on their demands and they get all three of these players but if they fail to sign Fabian then there should be plenty of money for Hickey/Kavadas and they'd get the 41st pick in next years draft. Given the rest of this draft, I wouldn't be completely upset with that scenario.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 26, 2021 7:49:57 GMT -5
I know we know of the Felix signing, a quick note as I'm not sure it was mentioned, he's a switch-hitting, two way player. Was drafted out of HS by the Marlins in the 21st round, but went to Western Oklahoma
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 26, 2021 8:58:52 GMT -5
At this point, I feel like we may not hear about Fabian/Hickey/Kavadas until the deadline. They know there's a finite amount of money left and everyone is in a hurry up and wait mode. If Hickey signed for slot the Sox could give a lot of money to Fabian, but if they fail to sign him they can't go over $2.67 million. Sox may or may not want to throw that number at him now if Hickey is demanding over slot. I think it's very plausible some guys come down on their demands and they get all three of these players but if they fail to sign Fabian then there should be plenty of money for Hickey/Kavadas and they'd get the 41st pick in next years draft. Given the rest of this draft, I wouldn't be completely upset with that scenario. Hickey signing for slot does not change what the Red Sox can give Fabian (versus what they can give him if he doesn't sign). He'd need to sign for below slot to increase what they can give Fabian. That isn't going to happen. I know we know of the Felix signing, a quick note as I'm not sure it was mentioned, he's a switch-hitting, two way player. Was drafted out of HS by the Marlins in the 21st round, but went to Western Oklahoma I believe he was actually drafted after his first year of JuCo in 2019. He's a weird third-year JuCo player caused by the lost 2020 season. |
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Post by texs31 on Jul 26, 2021 9:02:14 GMT -5
Bonuses arent just about rankings. Leverage factors in and as a draft eligible sophomore, Hickey has some. Where is Fabian's leverage coming from? He's a college junior who was projected as a late 1st or early 2nd pick which is exactly where he was drafted. If I'm the Sox I'm telling him it's slot or take a hike, especially if the pick is protected for next year. Leverage, here, is really based on the willingness to "walk away from the table". Who has more/less as compared to the Sox in their respective negotiations? Don't know. Factors for Fabian - confidence that he can return to Top 10 status - adverse impact to Sox of losing his pool money +5% - BAs writeup did indicate that he's young so 2022 he'd still be "age appropriate" for the draft. TBH, wasn't clear on that as it makes it sound like he's an eligible soph but I didn't think that was true. Factors for Hickey - Confidence that, as a Jr, he can have the type of year that would keep him no worse than what he'd currently be offered. - adverse impact to Sox of losing his pool money +5% Leverage is based on perception really and, again who loses/risks the most by walking away. Related (if I'm doing this correctly) If Fabian doesn't sign, Sox have $1.151M to sign Hickey, Kavadas, Ehrhard, Green (included only for completeness), Guerrero and Hood. If Hickey doesn't sign, Sox have 2.67M to sign Fabian, Kavadas and the others mentioned above If neither sign, Sox have 720K for Kavadas and the remaining post rd 10 guys. EDIT - TBC, of course, the money listed above is for bonuses over 125K on the post Rd 10 guys. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 26, 2021 9:03:18 GMT -5
At this point, I feel like we may not hear about Fabian/Hickey/Kavadas until the deadline. They know there's a finite amount of money left and everyone is in a hurry up and wait mode. If Hickey signed for slot the Sox could give a lot of money to Fabian, but if they fail to sign him they can't go over $2.67 million. Sox may or may not want to throw that number at him now if Hickey is demanding over slot. I think it's very plausible some guys come down on their demands and they get all three of these players but if they fail to sign Fabian then there should be plenty of money for Hickey/Kavadas and they'd get the 41st pick in next years draft. Given the rest of this draft, I wouldn't be completely upset with that scenario. Hickey signing for slot does not change what the Red Sox can give Fabian (versus what they can give him if he doesn't sign). He'd need to sign for below slot to increase what they can give Fabian. That isn't going to happen. I know we know of the Felix signing, a quick note as I'm not sure it was mentioned, he's a switch-hitting, two way player. Was drafted out of HS by the Marlins in the 21st round, but went to Western Oklahoma I believe he was actually drafted after his first year of JuCo in 2019. He's a weird third-year JuCo player caused by the lost 2020 season. Yeah, That's what I meant to say. The actual difference in what they can can't give Fabian if they fail to sign Hickey is 5% of his slow value, which isn't significant. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 26, 2021 9:46:07 GMT -5
Oh right, very good point on the 5% though, which is like $20k and as you say, not really going to move the needle.
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Post by kalinis73 on Jul 26, 2021 9:53:52 GMT -5
I just feel like they wouldn't/shouldn't have drafted Fabian (or Hickey, or even Kavadas for that matter) without knowing what it would take to sign them and whether or not it was available. An obvious exception being if they changed their mind down the line. I also thought that if they drafted Kavadas that that was a sign that they had money left to spend from their top 10. well after first 10 rounds they know are guy probably can't sign. they take a shot hoping can find a way. u don't pass up talent just cause know wont sign them. u take a shot see. not getting fabian or hickey done would be odd since usually teams get top 10 picks signed. after that is always a crap shoot. |
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 26, 2021 9:58:46 GMT -5
Question, for how many rounds are picks protected for not signing a guy? is it just the first two? or 1-10?
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 26, 2021 10:03:00 GMT -5
I just feel like they wouldn't/shouldn't have drafted Fabian (or Hickey, or even Kavadas for that matter) without knowing what it would take to sign them and whether or not it was available. An obvious exception being if they changed their mind down the line. I also thought that if they drafted Kavadas that that was a sign that they had money left to spend from their top 10. well after first 10 rounds they know are guy probably can't sign. they take a shot hoping can find a way. u don't pass up talent just cause know wont sign them. u take a shot see. not getting fabian or hickey done would be odd since usually teams get top 10 picks signed. after that is always a crap shoot. I should clarify, I just meant with the 11th round pick specifically. As in they knew roughly how much they had left after the 10 rounds and specifically shot their shot with whoever was available and picked that decently ranked and likely overslot player for a reason. I did not mean to refer to any highly ranked player drafted towards the end of the draft. And in this case I felt that round 2 was the same since it was the following day after the first round. I figured they'd have shot their shot with Mayer and calculated how much they anticipated having left over and then when to anyone and said "is this enough?" and wouldn't have drafted anyone that said no. But.........what do I know? |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 26, 2021 10:04:42 GMT -5
Question, for how many rounds are picks protected for not signing a guy? is it just the first two? or 1-10? Just the first two rounds. |
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Post by splendidsplinter on Jul 26, 2021 10:23:14 GMT -5
Really enjoying the discussion and all the machinations. I take comfort from the Sox record of signing their top ten picks and the very capable Bloom captaining the ship. I doubt Fabian or Hickey would have been drafted without a good idea of their cost. The low dollar accounting moves would seem more indicative (IMHO) of gathering money for signing a prospect outside of the top ten.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Jul 26, 2021 10:34:21 GMT -5
If Hickey is an insurance pick, I'm having issues with the way Bloom drafts. I'd also argue a huge part of Fabian being ranked so high at one point was because he was younger. Like Hickey is a 21 year old sophomore, while Fabian is a 20 year old junior. We don't have to wait long for an answer, yet I'm certainly not liking what I'm hearing right now.
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Post by missourimike441 on Jul 26, 2021 10:40:44 GMT -5
The environment around SEC conference schools just got a lot more interesting with the advent of NIL (name use compensation for athletes). Two football schools in the SEC got their players $10K to do interviews and another school saw a player just get a $1mil endorsement. The big money is happening mostly in the SEC, and it is difficult to see how their younger baseball stars, like Fabian, will assess things. But if anything, it could give them pause when considering bonus money balanced with the local business deals.
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Post by ematz1423 on Jul 26, 2021 10:47:13 GMT -5
The environment around SEC conference schools just got a lot more interesting with the advent of NIL (name use compensation for athletes). Two football schools in the SEC got their players $10K to do interviews and another school saw a player just get a $1mil endorsement. The big money is happening mostly in the SEC, and it is difficult to see how their younger baseball stars, like Fabian, will assess things. But if anything, it could give them pause when considering bonus money balanced with the local business deals. No doubt it changes the landscape on some level. Fabian could bet on himself and go back to school make some money and if he plays well improve his draft position. On the flipside he's not likely to even come close to the 1.85 million bonus that the 40th pick is slotted in NIL endorsements and maybe his K rate continues to be an issue as a Jr and he scares teams off and goes later than the 2nd round. |
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