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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2021 15:02:06 GMT -5
Literally to inform the agent of what his signing demands should be in an attempt to get that player to fall to your pick. I wouldn't put it past them to be doing that just to f with the Red Sox. They are not under obligation to pay that either if he did fall. OK, this I would DEFINITELY agree would be bush league. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 28, 2021 15:04:03 GMT -5
I feel like a better system would be to have each pick to be slotted and everyone gets their slot value. Then each team has a pool based on draft order and number of picks to go above slot.
Then finally, draft order would matter much more since going below slot wouldn't be a thing anymore. Though kids who want slot might go before kids who want more. It wouldn't be as pronounced though.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 28, 2021 15:08:48 GMT -5
I wouldn't put it past them to be doing that just to f with the Red Sox. They are not under obligation to pay that either if he did fall. OK, this I would DEFINITELY agree would be bush league. Is this so crazy that it could never happen?
Red Sox to Fabian: We can go to $2.5M Fabian to Orioles: Red Sox want me one pick before yours. Orioles to Fabian knowing that the Red Sox are going to draft him: We can go to $3M
Orioles talking amongst themselves: Hahahaha
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Post by widewordofsport on Jul 28, 2021 15:11:39 GMT -5
I wish there was a better way to do it, and I keep wondering about split (college vs high school, revocable vs. not) drafts but have no good ideas.
For Fabian... Sox have the money to throw an extra 500k at him. If he doesn't want it, I don't love him as a prospect enough to worry too much, can take the pick next year*
*I have no idea other than what I read here
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2021 15:14:10 GMT -5
OK, this I would DEFINITELY agree would be bush league. Is this so crazy that it could never happen? Red Sox to Fabian: We can go to $2.5M Fabian to Orioles: Red Sox want me one pick before yours. Orioles to Fabian knowing that the Red Sox are going to draft him: We can go to $3M Orioles talking amongst themselves: Hahahaha
If the Orioles did this, and then the Red Sox passed on Fabian, and then the Orioles either didn’t draft him or didn’t offer $3M, that’s a big black mark. Once you start reneging on deals, no one wants to make deals with you anymore. |
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 28, 2021 15:16:49 GMT -5
Is this so crazy that it could never happen? Red Sox to Fabian: We can go to $2.5M Fabian to Orioles: Red Sox want me one pick before yours. Orioles to Fabian knowing that the Red Sox are going to draft him: We can go to $3M Orioles talking amongst themselves: Hahahaha
If the Orioles did this, and then the Red Sox passed on Fabian, and then the Orioles either didn’t draft him or didn’t offer $3M, that’s a big black mark. Once you start reneging on deals, no one wants to make deals with you anymore. That's why I used the caveat "knowing that the Red Sox are going to draft him". It can't be that hard to figure out these things.
I know this is a silly sidebar at this point. I just don't like the tampering leading to crap like this.
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Post by jmei on Jul 28, 2021 15:18:17 GMT -5
If the Orioles did this, and then the Red Sox passed on Fabian, and then the Orioles either didn’t draft him or didn’t offer $3M, that’s a big black mark. Once you start reneging on deals, no one wants to make deals with you anymore. That's why I used the caveat "knowing that the Red Sox are going to draft him". It can't be that hard to figure out these things.
I know this is a silly sidebar at this point. I just don't like the tampering leading to crap like this.
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Post by orion09 on Jul 28, 2021 16:12:06 GMT -5
yeah as pedroelgrande said above, the Red Sox have done this and so have other teams. Like if we're saying a draft is bad then yes, I'm with you. But within the construct of a draft, then I completely disagree with the idea the Red Sox committed some ethical foul here. Like, if they picked him and offered him the bare minimum in order to protect their 2022 comp pick? Yeah, bush league. Even under $2M I'd say yeah what're you doing here. But the way a draft is supposed to work is that you select a player and then negotiate a contract with that player. They're almost certainly offering him an overslot contract. If it's not as far overslot as another team would've gone, I completely get being disappointed - I'm certainly not in the "take the money you got and like it" camp - but at the same time, this is how the system basically works, and they're operating within that construct in a way I find is fine ethically. Did the Rangers make a bush league move by drafting Leiter 2nd so he couldn't fall to his preferred team? I'm sure the Red Sox have had their pockets picked other times too. But don't you think when an agent lines up a deal for his player and tells teams "we're not signing below $X" then its usually a pretty safe deterrent from having other teams draft that player ahead of the deal? Leiter isn't one of those cases. The Rangers are paying him top $ (more than what we would have offered) even if TEX isn't his preferred team. I obviously have no issue with that. Its purely drafting a player who has a sizable deal in place at the very next pick that I feel to be questionable....maybe not bush league, but you're at the very least putting the agent and player in a difficult spot. I guess another way of thinking about this is this: If I'm an agent, and I have a deal lined up for my player for $3M, I'm then making it very clear in any communication with other teams that my player will not sign for below $3M (in order to get my player to that deal). If a team chooses to blatantly ignore that and force you into a situation of taking a lesser bonus or going back to school, that puts the agent and the player in a tough position based on what was previously communicated. Now I'm not entirely sure how things went down between the Red Sox and Fabian's agent...maybe it wasn't made blatantly clear that Fabian wouldn't be signing for less than $3M, but if it was in an effort to get Fabian to pick #41, then there as at least some pressure to stick to your guns even if the fully rational thing to do is take the money. It's interesting... here's a soundbite from right after we drafted Fabian: www.gatorsports.com/story/more-sports/2021/07/12/florida-gators-jud-fabian-selected-boston-red-sox-mlb-draft/7945427002/It makes me wonder whether the Sox were so surprised/giddy he dropped to them that they just went ahead and popped him without really hashing things out with his camp |
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Post by jchang on Jul 28, 2021 16:41:32 GMT -5
Is this so crazy that it could never happen? Red Sox to Fabian: We can go to $2.5M Fabian to Orioles: Red Sox want me one pick before yours. Orioles to Fabian knowing that the Red Sox are going to draft him: We can go to $3M Orioles talking amongst themselves: Hahahaha
If the Orioles did this, and then the Red Sox passed on Fabian, and then the Orioles either didn’t draft him or didn’t offer $3M, that’s a big black mark. Once you start reneging on deals, no one wants to make deals with you anymore. Fabian was ranked 23 by MLB, 27 by BA and 37 by PG. Slot for 23 is just under $3M, so Fabian has grounds to ask based on the high value, while the drafting team can start at the lower value. I am assuming various teams called to inquire as to his ask, and possibly a counter of : would you take 2.x? Given that the O's drafted the tenth rank (MLB) prospect with their first pick and signed to $4.9M, slightly over slot for 10, then it is not entirely unreasonable for the O's to be agreeable to 3M for the 23rd ranked (again MLB) prospect - also slightly over slot. Now its up to Fabian whether he should take the 2.6 bird in hand, or go for 3+ birds in the bush |
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Post by ghostofrussgibson on Jul 28, 2021 17:15:39 GMT -5
A young, healthy, bullet-proof stud feels like they can whip everyone in the bar. I hope someone can educate him on the risk/reward and remove the ego from any decision. Easier said than done, but that's part of what you hopefully glean from a trusted agent.
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nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,607
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Post by nomar on Jul 28, 2021 17:33:49 GMT -5
Calling Fabian’s bluff. He’s squabbling over a few hundred K and next year if he posts another 25% K% he’s falling much lower and is a senior sign. Just don’t see the point of assuming the risk for 300K.
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 28, 2021 18:45:15 GMT -5
Calling Fabian’s bluff. He’s squabbling over a few hundred K and next year if he posts another 25% K% he’s falling much lower and is a senior sign. Just don’t see the point of assuming the risk for 300K. Everything about this is incorrect. |
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 28, 2021 19:15:29 GMT -5
The nonsense of teams arranging deals with players (or their agents) before they are drafted lacks integrity. It essentially allows teams and players to manipulate the draft. MLB needs to wake up and fix this before the next draft. Things are only going to get more complicated if/when the international players are included in the draft.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Jul 28, 2021 19:19:32 GMT -5
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Post by unitspin on Jul 28, 2021 19:36:48 GMT -5
I take full blame if he doesnt sign I was rooting for it so hard, I pulled an eddy the mush.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 28, 2021 20:01:32 GMT -5
How does it get changed to equally distribute talent then? Are you suggesting the current system equally distributes amateur talent to all 30 teams? I don't see it that way when it awards free picks to so called small market teams and not trying to nit pick issues.
Are you possibly suggesting a just no draft, but possible top limit each team may spend on talent every year and every team has the same amount? That could possibly work, but good luck getting it past probably half of the owners is my 2c.
Chris, one more thing do want to mention tho. Control of a player, even with the reserve clause now gone nearly 50y is still 6y.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 28, 2021 20:01:33 GMT -5
I would love the day of the draft, like in the movie blue chips, someone leaves a duffle bag containing 2.5 million in front of his door. Let him sit on that decision.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
Posts: 639
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Post by alnipper on Jul 28, 2021 20:04:35 GMT -5
If we don't sign Fabian we can hopefully sign Green and sign more 11-20 guys. I'm never a big fan of drafting guys with a high K-Rate early in the draft. Early 2nd round. I'm not sure if he's worth the gamble. I'm glad he is not our first round pick though. I bet we'll sign him though. Hopefully he'll improve over his past season.
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 28, 2021 20:09:27 GMT -5
Green isn’t signing. At all. Not going to happen.
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alnipper
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Living the dream
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Post by alnipper on Jul 28, 2021 20:17:22 GMT -5
Green isn’t signing. At all. Not going to happen. Looks like they should of drafted a easier to sign guy or two as a backup plan. 30 rounds would of helped. |
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Post by majikthise on Jul 28, 2021 20:39:19 GMT -5
Any idea what Green's asking price was?
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Post by geostorm on Jul 28, 2021 21:19:21 GMT -5
Green isn’t signing. At all. Not going to happen. His Dad's reply to ChrisH seems to hint that there is a chance, though?...or, perhaps it is just a "dream"?
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Post by juanpena on Jul 28, 2021 21:41:13 GMT -5
OK, this I would DEFINITELY agree would be bush league. Is this so crazy that it could never happen?
Red Sox to Fabian: We can go to $2.5M Fabian to Orioles: Red Sox want me one pick before yours. Orioles to Fabian knowing that the Red Sox are going to draft him: We can go to $3M
Orioles talking amongst themselves: Hahahaha
I can't see this. Manny Machado is long gone from Baltimore. Is there any bad blood between the Orioles and the Red Sox? And since the Sox will get the No. 41 pick next year if Fabian doesn't sign, why would Baltimore do it? |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 28, 2021 21:56:14 GMT -5
Well, maybe it's just posturing, but it seems completely bananas to me to turn down a guaranteed $2.5 million. That's enough to live comfortably for the rest of your life. The difference in marginal utility between, say, $200,000 and $2.5 million is about 1000x more than the difference between $2.5 million and $6 million or whatever, if you ask me. , without the benefit of lucky investments or starting off with some wealth. It's certainly enough to get you through to your second career should baseball not work out. That said... he's not getting generational wealth without an MLB salary, 2.5 vs 3 or whatever. If you are doing this for the money, your only goal needs to be 1. get to the big league min salary as quickly as possible and 2. if you're lucky enough to be good, get to free agency as quickly as possible. (The implication that there is certainly an opportunity cost to giving up a year of prime ball-playing to be in college, unless you are studying something that will make you legit money later on). Well, a conservative way to live off of your savings is to invest it (and with $2.5m, you can find plenty of people willing to help you) and withdraw 4% each year. You should be able to do way better than 4% per year in returns, e.g. by simply investing in a fund pegged to the S&P -- some years way more than 4%, some years will be losses (at least there used to be) but I believe the average 10-year window, pick any window, since the inception of the S&P is >7%/year. So a 4% draw on $2.5m is $100,000 per year. Starting at age 21? That's pretty good. And you still have the $2.5m in the bank for later. I could live pretty comfortably on that but I doubt a 21 year old kid would do that. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 28, 2021 21:58:54 GMT -5
I can understand feeling sympathy for Fabian. It's normal to feel that there is some injustice when one side has too much power in a negotiation. The villain here is the draft system itself, which fundamentally exists to strip negotiating power away from players as they enter professional baseball. The Red Sox have done a very normal job of responding to the incentives presented to them. I don't think it's fair to expect them to hand wins to the Baltimore Orioles. Amazing still see the draft system vilified as bad. How many others remember when the Bklyn/LAD and NYY had more talent within their farm systems than several MLB teams on the field, due solely because talent coming out of school wanted to sign with those organizations? It's way better for the players (just ask Yoan Moncada) but you wind up with a league that has only a handful of teams with real shots at winning. Go have a look at the Premier League over in England... |
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