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2021 Draft Signing Period
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 28, 2021 22:08:16 GMT -5
Green isn’t signing. At all. Not going to happen. Looks like they should of drafted a easier to sign guy or two as a backup plan. 30 rounds would of helped. The problem is that the money from Fabian's slot can't be applied to Day 3 picks (i.e. after the 10th round). So the most they can offer Green is not a huge amount (I think it was estimated above at ~$850k). |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 28, 2021 22:18:59 GMT -5
I for one will be rooting for Fabian to figure out his swing and his strike zone.
If he signs with the Sox, great. That new swing (which he showed flashes of in the middle of this season, according to Callis) would shoot him up through the system like a gator strapped to a rocket.
If he turns down the Sox, I'll be rooting for him to have a bonkers year at Florida (even though I hate the Gators as a UGA alum) and rocket up next year's draft board.
This is a kid who the Sox had on their short-list for the #4 overall pick this past winter (again, according to Callis) and he dropped to #40 because he struck out too much this season. This is a kid who hit two bombs in one game vs. Jack Leiter -- you think he lacks confidence? (I bet he doesn't have an ugly GF...) What if he fulfills that top 5 promise by fixing his swing, mashing like hell, and continuing to unload his personal tool shed on the field every game?
That would be awesome.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2021 22:53:39 GMT -5
But don't you think when an agent lines up a deal for his player and tells teams "we're not signing below $X" then its usually a pretty safe deterrent from having other teams draft that player ahead of the deal? Leiter isn't one of those cases. The Rangers are paying him top $ (more than what we would have offered) even if TEX isn't his preferred team. I obviously have no issue with that. Its purely drafting a player who has a sizable deal in place at the very next pick that I feel to be questionable....maybe not bush league, but you're at the very least putting the agent and player in a difficult spot. I guess another way of thinking about this is this: If I'm an agent, and I have a deal lined up for my player for $3M, I'm then making it very clear in any communication with other teams that my player will not sign for below $3M (in order to get my player to that deal). If a team chooses to blatantly ignore that and force you into a situation of taking a lesser bonus or going back to school, that puts the agent and the player in a tough position based on what was previously communicated. Now I'm not entirely sure how things went down between the Red Sox and Fabian's agent...maybe it wasn't made blatantly clear that Fabian wouldn't be signing for less than $3M, but if it was in an effort to get Fabian to pick #41, then there as at least some pressure to stick to your guns even if the fully rational thing to do is take the money. It's interesting... here's a soundbite from right after we drafted Fabian: www.gatorsports.com/story/more-sports/2021/07/12/florida-gators-jud-fabian-selected-boston-red-sox-mlb-draft/7945427002/It makes me wonder whether the Sox were so surprised/giddy he dropped to them that they just went ahead and popped him without really hashing things out with his camp Wait really? Longenhagen said that Fabian had a workout at Fenway this year. Someone is very wrong. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 28, 2021 22:54:45 GMT -5
Green isn’t signing. At all. Not going to happen. His Dad's reply to ChrisH seems to hint that there is a chance, though?...or, perhaps it is just a "dream"?
His dad also tweeted (and deleted) that he's not signing, and has basically made it sound like it would've taken roughly second-round money. |
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Post by bluechip on Jul 28, 2021 23:50:56 GMT -5
That’s my point. It probably doesn’t make sense from a bean-counting perspective to turn down the Red Sox offer. But he may be understandably pissed off about them popping him a few picks before he was promised $3M and turn them down out of spite. I guess then I'm focused more on how irrational and stupid refusing to sign with them out of spite would be. He graduated from HS early to matriculate at UF and get his college career started a year earlier. It's not like this is some guy who was just strolling along in his career and then suddenly realized he was an MLB draft prospect. We can assume he and his camp are informed, rational actors. Turning down a Red Sox offer of, say, $2.4M or higher would be completely irrational and just silly. If we're lower than that, it gets more rational the lower it goes. People DO act irrational though. They get annoyed, and fixate on a number, and refuse to budge. It happens in negotiations all the time. I’m sure real estate agents, lawyers, and movie agents can all tell stories about the times clients fixated on a particular number in negotiations much to their own detriment. |
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jul 29, 2021 6:38:25 GMT -5
I guess then I'm focused more on how irrational and stupid refusing to sign with them out of spite would be. He graduated from HS early to matriculate at UF and get his college career started a year earlier. It's not like this is some guy who was just strolling along in his career and then suddenly realized he was an MLB draft prospect. We can assume he and his camp are informed, rational actors. Turning down a Red Sox offer of, say, $2.4M or higher would be completely irrational and just silly. If we're lower than that, it gets more rational the lower it goes. People DO act irrational though. They get annoyed, and fixate on a number, and refuse to budge. It happens in negotiations all the time. I’m sure real estate agents, lawyers, and movie agents can all tell stories about the times clients fixated on a particular number in negotiations much to their own detriment. Ah yes, the old, "It isn't the money, it's the principle of the thing ....." So in this case, is it the money, or the principle? And if it IS the principle, what exactly IS the principle? The draft is a crapshoot. Just because I think I might be able to get $X from a particular franchise, there are 30 teams out there, any one of whom might select me at any point in the draft. The draft is a restriction on The more I think about it -- it's the money. It's ALWAYS the money. |
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Post by greenmonster on Jul 29, 2021 9:36:04 GMT -5
It is either the principle or the principal
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 29, 2021 10:17:19 GMT -5
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 29, 2021 10:40:08 GMT -5
Is Gammons saying they would have paid Fabian $3m if they took him at 40, or that Baltimore told him the Red Sox told Fabian they would pay him $3m? Also, if you are Fabian, turning down $2.5m to go back to school and having a second straight summer with no Cape League ABs or CNBT experience would seemingly be enough of a deterrent for teams to balk at a $3m price tag next summer, wouldn't it? Crucial developmental and scouting experiences gone, esp if he shows any stretches of swing and miss. There would be an awful lot of pressure on him. |
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Post by vokuhila on Jul 29, 2021 10:49:34 GMT -5
Still feels a little "off" to me...leaving 2.5 on the table because you were hoping for 3...500k is a lot of money, sure, but...2.5 is "in the ballpark". So we get to pic 25-30 and 41st next year...i can live with that! Bloom took a home run swing...and fouled it off...let's do it again next year... |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 29, 2021 10:55:14 GMT -5
Hickey close to a million leaves like 2.1 for Fabian, maybe less if Guerrero is getting anything.
It could be the case that Fabian turned down 2.5 million, but in a world where he accepted, Hickey would have happily signed for $500k
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Post by bluechip on Jul 29, 2021 10:58:33 GMT -5
Still feels a little "off" to me...leaving 2.5 on the table because you were hoping for 3...500k is a lot of money, sure, but...2.5 is "in the ballpark". So we get to pic 25-30 and 41st next year...i can live with that! Bloom took a home run swing...and fouled it off...let's do it again next year... Is it the 41st pick or is it just the fifth pick of the second round? Correct me if I’m wrong, but the fifth pick of the second round is not guaranteed to be the 41st pick. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Jul 29, 2021 11:00:22 GMT -5
41st
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Post by semsox on Jul 29, 2021 11:03:38 GMT -5
Still feels a little "off" to me...leaving 2.5 on the table because you were hoping for 3...500k is a lot of money, sure, but...2.5 is "in the ballpark". So we get to pic 25-30 and 41st next year...i can live with that! Bloom took a home run swing...and fouled it off...let's do it again next year... Is it the 41st pick or is it just the fifth pick of the second round? Correct me if I’m wrong, but the fifth pick of the second round is not guaranteed to be the 41st pick. Somebody hasn't listened to the latest podcast episode  Chris and Ian discussed this very topic, and said it's best to describe this pick as pick 40* as a replacement for this year's 40th pick. Thus, it is pick 41 next year irrespective of where in the round. Additionally, if other first rounders end up not signing, it does not push the pick back at all. It is 41st pick no matter what. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 29, 2021 11:34:10 GMT -5
FWIW, Jim Callis reported everything in that latest Gammons tweet in the latest MLB Pipeline podcast. Baltimore had the $3M deal (which makes sense after Cowser pick) and Sox swooped in. Hickey wants $1M.
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Post by radatz17 on Jul 29, 2021 11:39:10 GMT -5
Is Hickey signing?
Would make sense if you had a choice of Fabian vs Hickey to sign Hickey as there is no compensation pick if not signed
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Post by bcsox on Jul 29, 2021 11:43:19 GMT -5
so can somebody help me with the numbers: I want the Greek God of bombs from ND. If they go 1 Mill with Hickey, which in my opinion seems very high for a prospect ranked where he is, and go the full say 2.2 with Fabian, is the Greek not in the plans, or is he also getting a take the $125,000.00 or move on?
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Post by widewordofsport on Jul 29, 2021 11:54:43 GMT -5
I don't know about live comfortably the rest of your life, without the benefit of lucky investments or starting off with some wealth. It's certainly enough to get you through to your second career should baseball not work out. That said... he's not getting generational wealth without an MLB salary, 2.5 vs 3 or whatever. If you are doing this for the money, your only goal needs to be 1. get to the big league min salary as quickly as possible and 2. if you're lucky enough to be good, get to free agency as quickly as possible. (The implication that there is certainly an opportunity cost to giving up a year of prime ball-playing to be in college, unless you are studying something that will make you legit money later on). Well, a conservative way to live off of your savings is to invest it (and with $2.5m, you can find plenty of people willing to help you) and withdraw 4% each year. You should be able to do way better than 4% per year in returns, e.g. by simply investing in a fund pegged to the S&P -- some years way more than 4%, some years will be losses (at least there used to be) but I believe the average 10-year window, pick any window, since the inception of the S&P is >7%/year. So a 4% draw on $2.5m is $100,000 per year. Starting at age 21? That's pretty good. And you still have the $2.5m in the bank for later. I could live pretty comfortably on that but I doubt a 21 year old kid would do that. It's a stupid argument to have in the first place. But you have to pay taxes on 2.5 million. They get mad if you don't. And kids will want to buy a house and cars. And in the hypothetical of a failed career, so you know what lifetime health insurance for the unemployed is? It's plenty to get him to a second career. If you don't make it to arb years in MLB though, you better have a second career. |
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Post by threeifbaerga on Jul 29, 2021 12:02:19 GMT -5
Well, a conservative way to live off of your savings is to invest it (and with $2.5m, you can find plenty of people willing to help you) and withdraw 4% each year. You should be able to do way better than 4% per year in returns, e.g. by simply investing in a fund pegged to the S&P -- some years way more than 4%, some years will be losses (at least there used to be) but I believe the average 10-year window, pick any window, since the inception of the S&P is >7%/year. So a 4% draw on $2.5m is $100,000 per year. Starting at age 21? That's pretty good. And you still have the $2.5m in the bank for later. I could live pretty comfortably on that but I doubt a 21 year old kid would do that. It's a stupid argument to have in the first place. But you have to pay taxes on 2.5 million. They get mad if you don't. And kids will want to buy a house and cars. And in the hypothetical of a failed career, so you know what lifetime health insurance for the unemployed is? It's plenty to get him to a second career. If you don't make it to arb years in MLB though, you better have a second career. Millions live without health insurance. Also IIRC most of these rookie contracts come with contingencies should the player decide to go back to school once their career is over. Idk why you'd assume Jud would be unemployed for life. |
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Post by chrisfromnc on Jul 29, 2021 12:27:42 GMT -5
Years ago, on the old message board (so I can't quote the specific post) Mike Andrews outlined the entire draft signing process, which was then much more complex and drawn out because of the "Draft and Follow" process that many draftees went through back then. He had like eight different numbered points legitimately detailing the signing process after the draft. IIRC, the last point he made was something like, "8. Everybody freaks out right up until the deadline and the draftees initially predicted to sign actually sign."
Maybe Fabian signs, but first we need to all freak out for another couple days and Mike will be proven right on a post he made like 13 years ago. One can hope.
It is reasonable to wonder why I remember a specific message board post from that long ago. Its kina weird, really.
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Post by widewordofsport on Jul 29, 2021 12:36:27 GMT -5
It's a stupid argument to have in the first place. But you have to pay taxes on 2.5 million. They get mad if you don't. And kids will want to buy a house and cars. And in the hypothetical of a failed career, so you know what lifetime health insurance for the unemployed is? It's plenty to get him to a second career. If you don't make it to arb years in MLB though, you better have a second career. Millions live without health insurance. Also IIRC most of these rookie contracts come with contingencies should the player decide to go back to school once their career is over. Idk why you'd assume Jud would be unemployed for life. The point was that he wouldn't be set for life on 2.5 million. It was that if he took it and failed, he'd have to get a job in all likelihood. And to say he doesn't need health insurance because lots don't have it, is well... Very American of you. |
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Post by lonborgski on Jul 29, 2021 12:36:53 GMT -5
Years ago, on the old message board (so I can't quote the specific post). . . . It is reasonable to wonder why I remember a specific message board post from that long ago. Its kina weird, really. We remember because we freak out each year three days before the deadline about the then unsigned picks. |
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Post by threeifbaerga on Jul 29, 2021 12:49:34 GMT -5
Edit - nvm, it's off topic and not really worth discussing here.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 29, 2021 13:10:56 GMT -5
so can somebody help me with the numbers: I want the Greek God of bombs from ND. If they go 1 Mill with Hickey, which in my opinion seems very high for a prospect ranked where he is, and go the full say 2.2 with Fabian, is the Greek not in the plans, or is he also getting a take the $125,000.00 or move on? I think he'll have to take the $125k. I also think the Sox might be willing to offer him a little more, maybe $150k-$175 if it's available. If not, likely because they manage to get both Fabian and Hickey, I think he's stuck with $125k. I guess he could go back to ND as a Covid senior, b ut he'd have even less leverage then with Indy ball his only option. And If I recall correctly, he's on the older side for his draft class. So that doesn't help. |
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Post by congusgambler33 on Jul 29, 2021 13:12:54 GMT -5
The brain trust must be having a field day watching all the speculation on what everyone thinks will happen. We will find out when we find out after tomorrow. No one really knows what is in the mind of Bloom. We may be pleasantly surprised or we may be downright disheartened. If we get the 41st pick next year if Fabian decides not to sign then so be it. I just have a hard time believing that the Sox were giddy about Fabian being there for them to draft and jumping up and down in the room. Would they then say "Now what do we do"
Edit: Saturday is the last day for signings is that correct? I was mixed up with the trade deadline.
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