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2021 Draft Signing Period
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Post by chr31ter on Jul 31, 2021 18:42:50 GMT -5
I'm thinking of Hickey as a typical 5th round talent that played his cards well after the draft, and not a "real" overslot talent. Does that sound right to you guys, or is Hickey better than I'm thinking? Hickey's bat is for real. |
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Post by arquimedezbozo on Jul 31, 2021 18:48:49 GMT -5
I'd rather have the extra money next season than Fabian this season, but what happens if you don't use all of your cap money? Do you get to carry it over? They won’t have any money left over, they lose Fabians slot amount and what’s left is going to go to Kavadas They don’t carry the money over but they’ll have the slot money for the 41st pick next year, in addition to the rest of their pool. So they effectively carry it over, especially since I’m guessing the slot value will be higher next year. |
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Post by arquimedezbozo on Jul 31, 2021 18:51:13 GMT -5
I guess I’ll be the lone dissenting voice on this. If the day after the draft you said that the Sox were going to sign Hickey for $1M and forgo signing Fabian, literally everyone on this board would be freaking out and wondering what the hell happened. All we have to go by are the industry rankings, which obviously have less info than Chaim, but when a contract looks this out of whack (which is to say it looks completely freaking insane) it’s never good. Let’s hope this works out but, as of now, it doesn’t look good. If it was just Hickey vs Fabian, I think most of us would agree with you. But if it’s Hickey + Kavadas + the 41st pick next year (and its accompanying slot $$), do you feel differently? Because that’s effectively what it looks like, assuming Fabian would have even signed for $2.6M, which he may not have. |
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Post by kingstephanos on Jul 31, 2021 18:54:56 GMT -5
I guess I’ll be the lone dissenting voice on this. If the day after the draft you said that the Sox were going to sign Hickey for $1M and forgo signing Fabian, literally everyone on this board would be freaking out and wondering what the hell happened. All we have to go by are the industry rankings, which obviously have less info than Chaim, but when a contract looks this out of whack (which is to say it looks completely freaking insane) it’s never good. Let’s hope this works out but, as of now, it doesn’t look good. If it was just Hickey vs Fabian, I think most of us would agree with you. But if it’s Hickey + Kavadas + the 41st pick next year (and its accompanying slot $$), do you feel differently? Because that’s effectively what it looks like, assuming Fabian would have even signed for $2.6M, which he may not have. I completely agree with this assessment. |
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Post by kingofthetrill on Jul 31, 2021 19:03:42 GMT -5
I also don't think that Hickey would have gotten that money straight up, but since they weren't going to sign Fabian I think they had more money to play with and since you don't get bonus points for any money left over might as well give it to him. I think if Fabian were closer to being in play then Hickey either wouldn't have gotten as much or possibly not signed at all. I highly doubt that the Red Sox FO planned on giving Hickey $1M when he was drafted but who knows.
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Post by jbuttah on Jul 31, 2021 19:22:26 GMT -5
You have to think that the Bloom had an idea what Fabian was looking for, but took a calculated risk that he'd sign for less. I started having doubts about his signability when they gave Rodriguez near slot money. I thought he'd sign for 250,000 under slot and offer 2.8mm to Fabian. And it's now obvious that Hickey was plan B in case he didn't sign. Overall, I think it was a good gamble though, especially having kept him from going to Baltimore. I just hope for his sake that he comes back next year as a top draft pick. Hate for anyone to have to live with that shoulda.
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Post by auger1 on Jul 31, 2021 19:52:12 GMT -5
I guess I’ll be the lone dissenting voice on this. If the day after the draft you said that the Sox were going to sign Hickey for $1M and forgo signing Fabian, literally everyone on this board would be freaking out and wondering what the hell happened. All we have to go by are the industry rankings, which obviously have less info than Chaim, but when a contract looks this out of whack (which is to say it looks completely freaking insane) it’s never good. Let’s hope this works out but, as of now, it doesn’t look good. If it was just Hickey vs Fabian, I think most of us would agree with you. But if it’s Hickey + Kavadas + the 41st pick next year (and its accompanying slot $$), do you feel differently? Because that’s effectively what it looks like, assuming Fabian would have even signed for $2.6M, which he may not have. I do. I agree with your calculus. I guess I have more of a problem with people explaining this away like it was part of some grand plan or just shrugging their shoulders and acting like this is somehow par for the course when it’s clearly not. Obviously wires got crossed somewhere with the 2nd and 5th round picks. Fabian himself said that he barely had any contact with the Red Sox, so their gamble on signing him backfired. It’s rare for teams to not sign a top 2 pick. I don’t think Chaim and the Sox FO should be tarred and feathered or ripped apart mercilessly but there has to be a more critical look at this than what I am seeing here. (Both for missing out on Fabian and for drafting Hickey with his ludicrous demands that they acquiesced to. And I believe Chris alluded to hearing that Hickey wanted a million pretty soon after the draft, so I don’t think this is a case of the Sox FO handing him a couple of hundred K extra out of th goodness of their heart) |
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Post by jaffinator on Jul 31, 2021 20:11:04 GMT -5
If it was just Hickey vs Fabian, I think most of us would agree with you. But if it’s Hickey + Kavadas + the 41st pick next year (and its accompanying slot $$), do you feel differently? Because that’s effectively what it looks like, assuming Fabian would have even signed for $2.6M, which he may not have. I do. I agree with your calculus. I guess I have more of a problem with people explaining this away like it was part of some grand plan or just shrugging their shoulders and acting like this is somehow par for the course when it’s clearly not. Obviously wires got crossed somewhere with the 2nd and 5th round picks. Fabian himself said that he barely had any contact with the Red Sox, so their gamble on signing him backfired. It’s rare for teams to not sign a top 2 pick. I don’t think Chaim and the Sox FO should be tarred and feathered or ripped apart mercilessly but there has to be a more critical look at this than what I am seeing here. (Both for missing out on Fabian and for drafting Hickey with his ludicrous demands that they acquiesced to. And I believe Chris alluded to hearing that Hickey wanted a million pretty soon after the draft, so I don’t think this is a case of the Sox FO handing him a couple of hundred K extra out of th goodness of their heart) Bloom & co took a risk and it didn't pan out. When evaluating how they did, the next step is to examine not whether the risk itself worked or not, but how the decision-making process went. Was the apparent risk/reward worth it? Were there things they could have done to either minimize the risk or maximize the reward? Could they have been better at gathering information so as to better understand the risk? The first two questions can be discussed separately (though my first reaction is that the Sox did fine there) but it sounds like your issue is largely with the last one - that the Sox did not fully understand the nature of the risk they were taking. Both Hickey and Fabian stuck to their bonus guns pretty dang hard, and perhaps if the Sox had known they would, they might have gone in a slightly different direction. This is fair but a) guys get negotiated down off of firm bonus demands all the time, especially in college and b) at a certain level we can never know what the communication was like. |
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Post by redsox3in10 on Jul 31, 2021 20:13:17 GMT -5
The Sox had 3m? If both signed. Presuming hickey’s price had been 1m all along, then the initial Sox offer could have been 2.6 to Fabian and slot to hickey or somewhat less to fab and more to hickey. Since Fabian did not accept whatever his offer was , the Sox gave hickey his price, which is high considering his rank, while 2.6 to fab would have been inline with his ranking. Oh well, time to move on Nope, I guess I wasn’t clear: they could have offered Fabian all of their remaining pool (around 2.6) and not done Hickey, Kavadas (assuming he gets over slot), and maybe Guerrero (same qualifier). I think they already knew they couldn’t sign Hickey at slot. Instead, they gave Hickey $1M and have about $243k left for Kavadas/Guerrero. Btw, I just listened to the most recent podcast and Ian basically said what I said above, that 2022 #41, Hickey and Kavadas > Fabian. It's actually a bit less than the $243k, as they lose the plus five per cent of Fabian's slot as well. So it means that they have an extra $151,145 left to add to the $125k each for anyone past the top ten (Kavadas/Guerrero/Ehrhard). |
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Post by arquimedezbozo on Jul 31, 2021 20:30:43 GMT -5
Nope, I guess I wasn’t clear: they could have offered Fabian all of their remaining pool (around 2.6) and not done Hickey, Kavadas (assuming he gets over slot), and maybe Guerrero (same qualifier). I think they already knew they couldn’t sign Hickey at slot. Instead, they gave Hickey $1M and have about $243k left for Kavadas/Guerrero. Btw, I just listened to the most recent podcast and Ian basically said what I said above, that 2022 #41, Hickey and Kavadas > Fabian. It's actually a bit less than the $243k, as they lose the plus five per cent of Fabian's slot as well. So it means that they have an extra $151,145 left to add to the $125k each for anyone past the top ten (Kavadas/Guerrero/Ehrhard). Good catch, thanks. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jul 31, 2021 21:36:33 GMT -5
Hope they hit a HR with pick no 41 on the 2022 draft.
Is it wrong that a part of me now hopes that Fabian winds up being an overrated prospect whose strikeouts override his hit tool?
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Post by orion09 on Jul 31, 2021 21:59:06 GMT -5
Hope they hit a HR with pick no 41 on the 2022 draft. Is it wrong that a part of me now hopes that Fabian winds up being an overrated prospect whose strikeouts override his hit tool? Part of me feels the same way. It's why I don't really root for Mookie anymore - if you don't want to be here, it's going to be tough for me to root for you. It's difficult though - it would suck to see him flame out next year and wind up with nothing. I guess I'm agnostic on the issue - I hope he signs next year, gets his money, and I don't really care what happens to him after that. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 31, 2021 22:26:47 GMT -5
I am going to assume that Hickey forgot the word ENOUGH in his posting Either that or he left out the words "because wtf did they do? I'm the guy who swings the bat and throws dudes out." |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 31, 2021 22:28:31 GMT -5
I'd rather have the extra money next season than Fabian this season, but what happens if you don't use all of your cap money? Do you get to carry it over? They won’t have any money left over, they lose Fabians slot amount and what’s left is going to go to Kavadas But they get Fabian's slot amount back next year... Also, my understanding is that they can't apply Fabian's slot amount to bros drafted after the 10th round. I think they can give Kavadas (or Hood or Green or...) an extra amount equal to 105% of the total pool, minus the total of all top-ten slots. If that's not right, someone please correct me. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Jul 31, 2021 22:42:36 GMT -5
Hope they hit a HR with pick no 41 on the 2022 draft. Is it wrong that a part of me now hopes that Fabian winds up being an overrated prospect whose strikeouts override his hit tool? Part of me feels the same way. It's why I don't really root for Mookie anymore - if you don't want to be here, it's going to be tough for me to root for you. It's difficult though - it would suck to see him flame out next year and wind up with nothing. I guess I'm agnostic on the issue - I hope he signs next year, gets his money, and I don't really care what happens to him after that. I'd kind of like to see his gamble pay off and go top-5 next year and the other half of me wants to see the MFYs pick him at #20ish next year, give him a huge overslot deal that effs up their whole draft, and then he face-plants from Day 1 in Low-A. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 31, 2021 23:18:08 GMT -5
You need to hope Hickey can stay at C.
I know it’s SEC vs B1G, but Hickey was not Schwarber in college. Not even close. If you followed NCAAB closely that’s an insult to Schwarber. He was awesome; electric. These things are easily forgotten in time, but Schwarber was a sick college hitter. If he wasn’t drafted shortly after Bryant to the same club, I think he would have been even more of a college legend. He was sick.
Speaking as a college baseball fan.
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Post by GyIantosca on Aug 1, 2021 3:06:51 GMT -5
I’m looking at this like a good thing. I’m telling you next year I’m hoping they load up with a couple of top pitchers.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 1, 2021 5:34:53 GMT -5
The part of the calculus that is missing here, is whether there was a better draft option this year at 40. You don’t get to draft that high very often, so you want to make the most of that. Yes you have the 41st pick next year but was there a stud pitcher you missed in order to take Fabian?
Also, I hope he goes 42nd for slot next year, and the cost to him is only a year of pro life and not $$.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 1, 2021 6:13:42 GMT -5
They won’t have any money left over, they lose Fabians slot amount and what’s left is going to go to Kavadas But they get Fabian's slot amount back next year... Also, my understanding is that they can't apply Fabian's slot amount to bros drafted after the 10th round. I think they can give Kavadas (or Hood or Green or...) an extra amount equal to 105% of the total pool, minus the total of all top-ten slots. If that's not right, someone please correct me. In a sense, yes, I get what you’re saying. but it’s the pick carrying over not the money. It’s not like they can use that money right now and since they won’t it will be carried over into next year. |
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 1, 2021 6:33:04 GMT -5
You need to hope Hickey can stay at C. I know it’s SEC vs B1G, but Hickey was not Schwarber in college. Not even close. If you followed NCAAB closely that’s an insult to Schwarber. He was awesome; electric. These things are easily forgotten in time, but Schwarber was a sick college hitter. If he wasn’t drafted shortly after Bryant to the same club, I think he would have been even more of a college legend. He was sick. Speaking as a college baseball fan. He’s definitely not Schwarber but he isn’t as far off as I figured he was, and that’s pretty impressive as Schwarber was a monster OPSing over 1000 with more walks than K’s But yeah if you compare their age 21 seasons you can clearly see why one went 4 and the other went 5th round |
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 1, 2021 6:55:39 GMT -5
You need to hope Hickey can stay at C. I know it’s SEC vs B1G, but Hickey was not Schwarber in college. Not even close. If you followed NCAAB closely that’s an insult to Schwarber. He was awesome; electric. These things are easily forgotten in time, but Schwarber was a sick college hitter. If he wasn’t drafted shortly after Bryant to the same club, I think he would have been even more of a college legend. He was sick. Speaking as a college baseball fan. I first saw him against FSU in a CWS regional. IU went down to Tallahassee and clobbered the Noles 2x. Was shocking. Made CWS. Sam Travis was on that team too. Followed him since His minor league stats are crazy too. He played 72 games his draft year and hit 18 Schwarbombs. 1000 ops in FSL and Midwest. Not complex games. Follows it up with1000+ OPS in Southern and PCL for half season. Before promoted to Cubs. I want him as our DH for the next 7-8 years. I think he’s be much Healthier doing that. I believe his injuries have occur laying OF. |
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Post by borisman on Aug 1, 2021 10:57:43 GMT -5
So did we not sign anyone else or is an announcement due out tomorrow? I get that Kavadas is still in play but did we lose out on Guerrero?
Edit: my bad, I thought deadline was 7/31. Thanks soxfanatic.
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Post by soxfanatic on Aug 1, 2021 11:01:04 GMT -5
Deadline is 5 PM ET
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Post by vermontsox1 on Aug 1, 2021 11:30:34 GMT -5
Sounds like the Mets not only will not sign Rocker, but because they didn't draft any signability guys on day 3 they will let amount $900k go to waste.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 1, 2021 11:36:47 GMT -5
Sounds like the Mets not only will not sign Rocker, but because they didn't draft any signability guys on day 3 they will let amount $900k go to waste. Just a complete blunder on their part. I wonder how bad those medicals must have been on Rocker because he's still a really high upside arm that they're punting for an extra first now. I feel bad for Rocker. I hope he absolutely shoves at Vandy next year and looks like that possible ace that he's shown glimpses of. |
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