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2021 Draft Signing Period
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Post by telson13 on Aug 1, 2021 11:44:01 GMT -5
Well, a conservative way to live off of your savings is to invest it (and with $2.5m, you can find plenty of people willing to help you) and withdraw 4% each year. You should be able to do way better than 4% per year in returns, e.g. by simply investing in a fund pegged to the S&P -- some years way more than 4%, some years will be losses (at least there used to be) but I believe the average 10-year window, pick any window, since the inception of the S&P is >7%/year. So a 4% draw on $2.5m is $100,000 per year. Starting at age 21? That's pretty good. And you still have the $2.5m in the bank for later. I could live pretty comfortably on that but I doubt a 21 year old kid would do that. It's a stupid argument to have in the first place. But you have to pay taxes on 2.5 million. They get mad if you don't. And kids will want to buy a house and cars. And in the hypothetical of a failed career, so you know what lifetime health insurance for the unemployed is? It's plenty to get him to a second career. If you don't make it to arb years in MLB though, you better have a second career. You make a valid point (he’s losing basically 36% off the top, so he’s only seeing 1.5+). But hey, just put a minimum down payment on a nice house in MA (say 20% for a million-dollar home, on a 2.6% mortgage) and Medicaid covers your health insurance. Hell, I earned 65% in the market in the past year. One good year and he’s set. Lifetime S&P return as noted is about 8%…and smart investing should double that. It’s not like they HAVE to go Yoan Moncada and start blowing money on a Lambo collection 😂. I will say this…it’s a lot easier if the player is Mike Mussina or Craig Breslow or Ron Darling. But in that sense, it’s why I don’t understand these kids who turn down huge bucks. Financially speaking, especially if they’re not otherwise uber-talented (or at least very bright) in some way, in doesn’t make sense at all to “go for it.” It’s a huge, unnecessary gamble. And the litany of losers is long. The only winner I can think of off the top of my head is Gerrit Cole. Delayed time to reach MLB, injury, performance regression, scouting finding more holes…there’s just not much upside from $2.5 to 8.5M in a year when that’s what a guy will make in a month if he’s actually as good as he thinks being willing to push it off. |
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art
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Post by art on Aug 1, 2021 11:50:39 GMT -5
You need to hope Hickey can stay at C. I know it’s SEC vs B1G, but Hickey was not Schwarber in college. Not even close. If you followed NCAAB closely that’s an insult to Schwarber. He was awesome; electric. These things are easily forgotten in time, but Schwarber was a sick college hitter. If he wasn’t drafted shortly after Bryant to the same club, I think he would have been even more of a college legend. He was sick. Speaking as a college baseball fan. He’s definitely not Schwarber but he isn’t as far off as I figured he was, and that’s pretty impressive as Schwarber was a monster OPSing over 1000 with more walks than K’s But yeah if you compare their age 21 seasons you can clearly see why one went 4 and the other went 5th round As both a Gators and Red Sox fan I think UF will miss Hickey's bat more than it would have missed Fabian's. Hickey led UF in just about every hitting category except HRs. And his 9 HRs in a 60 game schedule against the highest college competition wasn't exactly shabby. While I'll be missing him as a Gator I'm glad to welcome him into the Sox family. |
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Post by juanpena on Aug 1, 2021 11:53:17 GMT -5
Sounds like the Mets not only will not sign Rocker, but because they didn't draft any signability guys on day 3 they will let amount $900k go to waste. I feel bad for Rocker. I hope he absolutely shoves at Vandy next year and looks like that possible ace that he's shown glimpses of. Yet inexplicably slides to pick 41 in next year's draft.  |
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Post by telson13 on Aug 1, 2021 12:10:05 GMT -5
Cubs draft signing below. Never seen this before and honestly didn't even know this was a possible arrangement: I don’t get at all why more teams don’t do this. Young guys aren’t going to start their seasons until June anyway. It’s probably not an issue for at least 2 years. By then maybe the kid drops out to play baseball, or he loses just a bit of development time each spring. Like, a month. Hell, he can make it up if the team runs a January clinic just for the draft-and-fulltime school guys. Seems like a market inefficiency to me. Paid school and summers playing baseball? Yes please. |
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Post by jbuttah on Aug 1, 2021 12:31:47 GMT -5
It's a stupid argument to have in the first place. But you have to pay taxes on 2.5 million. They get mad if you don't. And kids will want to buy a house and cars. And in the hypothetical of a failed career, so you know what lifetime health insurance for the unemployed is? It's plenty to get him to a second career. If you don't make it to arb years in MLB though, you better have a second career. You make a valid point (he’s losing basically 36% off the top, so he’s only seeing 1.5+). But hey, just put a minimum down payment on a nice house in MA (say 20% for a million-dollar home, on a 2.6% mortgage) and Medicaid covers your health insurance. Hell, I earned 65% in the market in the past year. One good year and he’s set. Lifetime S&P return as noted is about 8%…and smart investing should double that. It’s not like they HAVE to go Yoan Moncada and start blowing money on a Lambo collection 😂. I will say this…it’s a lot easier if the player is Mike Mussina or Craig Breslow or Ron Darling. But in that sense, it’s why I don’t understand these kids who turn down huge bucks. Financially speaking, especially if they’re not otherwise uber-talented (or at least very bright) in some way, in doesn’t make sense at all to “go for it.” It’s a huge, unnecessary gamble. And the litany of losers is long. The only winner I can think of off the top of my head is Gerrit Cole. Delayed time to reach MLB, injury, performance regression, scouting finding more holes…there’s just not much upside from $2.5 to 8.5M in a year when that’s what a guy will make in a month if he’s actually as good as he thinks being willing to push it off. If Orioles did promise $3mm and if Sox did offer $2.6mm, geez I really don't understand Fabian rejecting the 2.6mm. OTOH, I really don't understand the Sox not taking some senior signs in the later rounds to get that extra 250-400k to give to Fabian.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 1, 2021 12:32:43 GMT -5
I’m looking at this like a good thing. I’m telling you next year I’m hoping they load up with a couple of top pitchers. Next year is the year to go back-to-back on HS arms in the second round. It’s a deep year supposedly, and the prep arm risk issue means great talent often slides. Plus the extra college hitters (highest likelihood of success historically) should eat up Rd 1. |
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Post by evanstonredsox on Aug 1, 2021 12:38:18 GMT -5
Any update on niko?
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Post by vermontsox1 on Aug 1, 2021 12:39:09 GMT -5
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Post by telson13 on Aug 1, 2021 12:41:21 GMT -5
You make a valid point (he’s losing basically 36% off the top, so he’s only seeing 1.5+). But hey, just put a minimum down payment on a nice house in MA (say 20% for a million-dollar home, on a 2.6% mortgage) and Medicaid covers your health insurance. Hell, I earned 65% in the market in the past year. One good year and he’s set. Lifetime S&P return as noted is about 8%…and smart investing should double that. It’s not like they HAVE to go Yoan Moncada and start blowing money on a Lambo collection 😂. I will say this…it’s a lot easier if the player is Mike Mussina or Craig Breslow or Ron Darling. But in that sense, it’s why I don’t understand these kids who turn down huge bucks. Financially speaking, especially if they’re not otherwise uber-talented (or at least very bright) in some way, in doesn’t make sense at all to “go for it.” It’s a huge, unnecessary gamble. And the litany of losers is long. The only winner I can think of off the top of my head is Gerrit Cole. Delayed time to reach MLB, injury, performance regression, scouting finding more holes…there’s just not much upside from $2.5 to 8.5M in a year when that’s what a guy will make in a month if he’s actually as good as he thinks being willing to push it off. If Orioles did promise $3mm and if Sox did offer $2.6mm, geez I really don't understand Fabian rejecting the 2.6mm. OTOH, I really don't understand the Sox not taking some senior signs in the later rounds to get that extra 250-400k to give to Fabian.
My guess is they picked him on the talent/slide alone, and had a value they were willing to spend, hard stop. I’m glad they stuck to their guns and spread the bonuses around. I mean, I get your point, it’s not a ton to sacrifice, but I think the depth of next year’s draft and the financial flexibility of the added pick basically meant they were comfortable taking a hard line. Sure, 4th-8th round picks don’t pan out that often, but theres a serious talent drop-off going HS or Jr to Sr sign. To save that kind of money they’d be giving up real talent. And getting pick 41 next year means they basically lose nothing but a year of development on a second round pick, which isn’t much…and they get to gamble even bigger since they’ll have another 2nd-rounder they can go underslot on. I’m actually happy it went this way, mostly because I’m a hit tool guy and Fabian made me nervous. |
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Post by telson13 on Aug 1, 2021 12:42:07 GMT -5
Ask and we shall receive I see. |
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 1, 2021 12:45:44 GMT -5
By my count, Niko's bonus makes the max Guerrero could have gotten about 150k.
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Post by telson13 on Aug 1, 2021 12:48:30 GMT -5
I feel bad for Rocker. I hope he absolutely shoves at Vandy next year and looks like that possible ace that he's shown glimpses of. Yet inexplicably slides to pick 41 in next year's draft. If I were the Sox, having the extra bucks with 41 and roughly 65 next year, I’d put a bug in his ear. They could overslot him at 25 easily. |
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Post by jbuttah on Aug 1, 2021 13:04:41 GMT -5
Yet inexplicably slides to pick 41 in next year's draft. If I were the Sox, having the extra bucks with 41 and roughly 65 next year, I’d put a bug in his ear. They could overslot him at 25 easily. Even post surgery? With his inconsistent velocity, reliance on the slider, and the Mets wariness over his physicals, I think the chances that he's gonna need surgery is pretty high. |
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 1, 2021 13:07:25 GMT -5
If I were the Sox, having the extra bucks with 41 and roughly 65 next year, I’d put a bug in his ear. They could overslot him at 25 easily. Even post surgery? With his inconsistent velocity, reliance on the slider, and the Mets wariness over his physicals, I think the chances that he's gonna need surgery is pretty high. If the surgery ends up just being Tommy John than personally I'd say heck yes. The success rate coming back from it is pretty solid these days. When he's right he's got great stuff hence why he got drafted by the Mets in the top 10. If that's potential is available at 24+ I think it'd be a great move by sox if the opportunity presented itself. |
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Post by jmei on Aug 1, 2021 13:19:54 GMT -5
Here’s the thing about Kavadas—if he has plus-plus raw power and projects to have at least plus in-game power, and potentially a fringe-average to average hit tool with acceptable strikeout rates and no glaring holes in his swing/approach (can recognize spin, can catch up to velocity, not a hacker), why wouldn’t he be ranked higher? I get that he might immediately be the slowest player in the minors, is on the older side and might honestly be DH-only, but those things don’t seem to me to account for the difference between he and, say, Bobby Dalbec or even Henry Davis.
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Post by wOBA Fett on Aug 1, 2021 13:44:57 GMT -5
Did Niko have any options other than signing with the Sox?
Also looking forward to the extra 2nd round pick next year. We can go overslot round 1 now and get a top player in the late 20s with signability issues. That's worth losing Jud.
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smuck
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Post by smuck on Aug 1, 2021 13:45:08 GMT -5
Here’s the thing about Kavadas—if he has plus-plus raw power and projects to have at least plus in-game power, and potentially a fringe-average to average hit tool with acceptable strikeout rates and no glaring holes in his swing/approach (can recognize spin, can catch up to velocity, not a hacker), why wouldn’t he be ranked higher? I get that he might immediately be the slowest player in the minors, is on the older side and might honestly be DH-only, but those things don’t seem to me to account for the difference between he and, say, Bobby Dalbec or even Henry Davis. Being a 1B already doesn't help. If his bat came with a Catcher position, he wouldn't have slid. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 1, 2021 14:04:07 GMT -5
In retrospect, it would've been fun if they had picked Joshua Baez at #40. He was ranked by mlb.com just one spot behind Fabian and ended up signing for $2.25 million, which presumably would have been doable.
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 1, 2021 14:10:20 GMT -5
I'm glad Fabian didn't sign. Hard pass on light hitting guys with 40% k rates.
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Post by malynn19 on Aug 1, 2021 14:21:49 GMT -5
I actively root against Mookie. He didn’t want to be in the Bean? F ‘im. I don’t hate him, and I appreciate all he contributed, but I definitely dislike him. And that’s while accepting that on some level, it actually wasn’t about the money for him. If a player wants out of Boston, good riddance. And if they want to stay (BOGEYYYYYYY! Love the guy), he’s a treasure. It was, what, two seasons ago that there was a controversy about fans in the right field stands yelling racial slurs at opposing players? The same fans Mookie played in front of? Even if it were the case that Mookie did want to leave Boston (which we don't know for sure) I am going to withhold judgment about his motivations. (And yes, there are undoubtedly racist fans everywhere, but Boston definitely has a reputation.)
I say this not because I have particular reason to think those racist fans were a motivation for Mookie, but only to give an example of how we don't know what he might have been thinking and I am not about to say "F him" over it. He certainly gave the team and the city all he had while he was here, and he never uttered one negative thing about them on the way out. I'm inclined to return that treatment.
ADD: On a more germane note... I am irrationally excited about Niko Kavadas and I have no idea why.
He's the Greek God of Bombs and Gyros. He has a name any 1980s action movie star would love. He's big, bad and he's the Greek version of Sam Horn. Plus he could stunt double for Schwarber. |
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Post by incandenza on Aug 1, 2021 14:22:39 GMT -5
I'm wondering if this is related at all to Fabian not signing? Were they able to go ahead with other guys as Plan B, or did they unrelatedly just manage to sign 1 or 2 more guys than expected?
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Aug 1, 2021 14:30:58 GMT -5
Okay it didn't add badly, 10 out 11 signed, you get another pick next year.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 1, 2021 14:33:04 GMT -5
In retrospect, it would've been fun if they had picked Joshua Baez at #40. He was ranked by mlb.com just one spot behind Fabian and ended up signing for $2.25 million, which presumably would have been doable. The two counterfactual that I will allow for the purposes of arguing on internet message boards:
1) Red Sox draft Baez instead of Fabian, sign Baez. Everything else is the same. This is Baez vs 2022 #41
2) Red Sox draft Niko in the 5th instead of Hickey, sign everyone including Fabian. This is Fabian vs Hickey + 2022 #41
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Post by malynn19 on Aug 1, 2021 14:33:43 GMT -5
Here’s the thing about Kavadas—if he has plus-plus raw power and projects to have at least plus in-game power, and potentially a fringe-average to average hit tool with acceptable strikeout rates and no glaring holes in his swing/approach (can recognize spin, can catch up to velocity, not a hacker), why wouldn’t he be ranked higher? I get that he might immediately be the slowest player in the minors, is on the older side and might honestly be DH-only, but those things don’t seem to me to account for the difference between he and, say, Bobby Dalbec or even Henry Davis. Hey Jmei can we get Niko Kavadas his own thread? |
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Post by arquimedezbozo on Aug 1, 2021 14:35:43 GMT -5
Did Niko have any options other than signing with the Sox? Also looking forward to the extra 2nd round pick next year. We can go overslot round 1 now and get a top player in the late 20s with signability issues. That's worth losing Jud. Yes, he could have gone back to ND for another year as a Covid senior. He would have then had zero leverage next year and been closing in on 24. Based on an interview I listened to from before the draft, I don’t think there was much chance he was not going to sign. He wants to play pro ball and was very disappointed that he didn’t get drafted last year. I do wonder if the Sox will ever see that pick next year, though, as I could see them signing a FA with a QO attached. If that’s the case, at least they get to keep their own 2nd-rounder and won’t lose a 5th-rounder (and $1m in international signing $), since they didn’t end up going over the 1st CB threshold at the deadline. |
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