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2021 Draft Signing Period
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 2, 2021 1:53:51 GMT -5
So Kumar does NOT sign with the Mets and will NOT return to Vanderbilt....Is he now a free-agent and able to sign with anyone?? No - he has college eligibility and will be part of the 2022 draft. His best bet this year is to go play pro overseas or maybe in an independent league in the States. My guess is this also, but probably not overseas, here in Indy ball where he will have plenty of rest between games and it will be more of a showcase attempt, then simply shutdown early and wait out the draft. There is a reason Rocker avoided having his elbow checked out and Boras is going to protect it as long as he can until the Rocker autograph is on a contract. I don't expect to see him drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round next year, if even in the 1st round at all. Hiding like this just sends up all sorts of warning flares. |
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Post by manfred on Aug 2, 2021 2:02:13 GMT -5
What I want to know is if the Mets would have signed him at a reduced cost or if they were so down on his elbow (?) that they just preferred the pick next year. What, in short, is wrong with Kumar?
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Post by unitspin on Aug 2, 2021 4:56:29 GMT -5
No - he has college eligibility and will be part of the 2022 draft. His best bet this year is to go play pro overseas or maybe in an independent league in the States. My guess is this also, but probably not overseas, here in Indy ball where he will have plenty of rest between games and it will be more of a showcase attempt, then simply shutdown early and wait out the draft. There is a reason Rocker avoided having his elbow checked out and Boras is going to protect it as long as he can until the Rocker autograph is on a contract. I don't expect to see him drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round next year, if even in the 1st round at all. Hiding like this just sends up all sorts of warning flares. From what I ready they did an x-ray and saw nothing wrong with his arm. But that could be all boras propaganda. Guess we will find out if he goes out and throws a 100 ip next season that maybe be the case. |
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Post by ramireja on Aug 2, 2021 12:02:18 GMT -5
You need to hope Hickey can stay at C. I know it’s SEC vs B1G, but Hickey was not Schwarber in college. Not even close. If you followed NCAAB closely that’s an insult to Schwarber. He was awesome; electric. These things are easily forgotten in time, but Schwarber was a sick college hitter. If he wasn’t drafted shortly after Bryant to the same club, I think he would have been even more of a college legend. He was sick. Speaking as a college baseball fan. So I agree that the Hickey to Schwarber comparisons need to be taken with a huge grain of salt. That said, ignoring age for a minute and looking at college experience: Kyle Schwarber's first 270 college PAs: .300/.390/.513, 8 HR, .213 ISO, 11.11 BB%, 8.89 K% Nathan Hickey's first 335 college PAs: .316/.436/.539, 13 HR, .223 ISO, 15.52 BB%, 16.42 K% Now of course, Hickey was ages 20-21 over this timeframe while Schwarber was 19, but Hickey obviously can't control the lack of playing time due to COVID. It certainly would have been interesting to see Hickey's performance as a junior. |
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Aug 2, 2021 12:25:35 GMT -5
You need to hope Hickey can stay at C. I know it’s SEC vs B1G, but Hickey was not Schwarber in college. Not even close. If you followed NCAAB closely that’s an insult to Schwarber. He was awesome; electric. These things are easily forgotten in time, but Schwarber was a sick college hitter. If he wasn’t drafted shortly after Bryant to the same club, I think he would have been even more of a college legend. He was sick. Speaking as a college baseball fan. So I agree that the Hickey to Schwarber comparisons need to be taken with a huge grain of salt. That said, ignoring age for a minute and looking at college experience: Kyle Schwarber's first 270 college PAs: .300/.390/.513, 8 HR, .213 ISO, 11.11 BB%, 8.89 K% Nathan Hickey's first 335 college PAs: .316/.436/.539, 13 HR, .223 ISO, 15.52 BB%, 16.42 K% Now of course, Hickey was ages 20-21 over this timeframe while Schwarber was 19, but Hickey obviously can't control the lack of playing time due to COVID. It certainly would have been interesting to see Hickey's performance as a junior. Agreed and I’m not disparaging Hickey at all, Schwarber was just a monster. And I think while he might move off C, he has a much better shot at sticking than KS did. |
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Post by jaffinator on Aug 2, 2021 15:16:43 GMT -5
So I agree that the Hickey to Schwarber comparisons need to be taken with a huge grain of salt. That said, ignoring age for a minute and looking at college experience: Kyle Schwarber's first 270 college PAs: .300/.390/.513, 8 HR, .213 ISO, 11.11 BB%, 8.89 K% Nathan Hickey's first 335 college PAs: .316/.436/.539, 13 HR, .223 ISO, 15.52 BB%, 16.42 K% Now of course, Hickey was ages 20-21 over this timeframe while Schwarber was 19, but Hickey obviously can't control the lack of playing time due to COVID. It certainly would have been interesting to see Hickey's performance as a junior. Agreed and I’m not disparaging Hickey at all, Schwarber was just a monster. And I think while he might move off C, he has a much better shot at sticking than KS did. Just from a watching perspective, Schwarber was such a strong, physical player in college in a way Hickey wasn't completely. The Hickey I saw seemed... unlikely to stick behind the dish, but I've read that he's done a good job improving his body while at Florida, so optimistically there might be even more improvement that could be done there? |
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Post by soxaddict on Aug 2, 2021 16:42:11 GMT -5
My completely uninformed speculation: Red Sox reset after night 1 of the draft. They're pumped they got Mayer. They reset the board knowing Mayer probably signs for slot (so they have something like $334k to spend elsewhere). They see Fabian, a guy they were once once looking at heavily as an option at 1-4, is still there. They know his bonus demand but say F it, we like him better than anyone else available so let's swing for the fences and try to get him to back off this $3M number and if he doesn't sign, we get pick 41 next year, when honestly we might need it more because we're going to be picking late rather than 4th. They tried it, he stuck to his guns, ok good for you kid we're rolling the pick over. For what it's worth, for those saying the Hickey bonus happened after Fabian said no, I heard the $1M on Hickey very soon after the draft. Now, if Fabian had been like, yeah I'll sign for $2.3M, would the Red Sox have probably gone to Hickey and be like $800k, take it or leave it? Maybe, but this isn't something where they were only planning on signing him for slot but suddenly money was available (which, honestly, I'm more inclined to think was the case with Kavadas). Forgive my ignorance, I’m not up on the draft rules. But, knowing Fabian was going to be a tough sign, couldn’t they have drafted a prep arm like Chase Burns in the 10th round and maybe enticed him to sign with money they had allotted for Fabian? |
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 2, 2021 18:16:07 GMT -5
My completely uninformed speculation: Red Sox reset after night 1 of the draft. They're pumped they got Mayer. They reset the board knowing Mayer probably signs for slot (so they have something like $334k to spend elsewhere). They see Fabian, a guy they were once once looking at heavily as an option at 1-4, is still there. They know his bonus demand but say F it, we like him better than anyone else available so let's swing for the fences and try to get him to back off this $3M number and if he doesn't sign, we get pick 41 next year, when honestly we might need it more because we're going to be picking late rather than 4th. They tried it, he stuck to his guns, ok good for you kid we're rolling the pick over. For what it's worth, for those saying the Hickey bonus happened after Fabian said no, I heard the $1M on Hickey very soon after the draft. Now, if Fabian had been like, yeah I'll sign for $2.3M, would the Red Sox have probably gone to Hickey and be like $800k, take it or leave it? Maybe, but this isn't something where they were only planning on signing him for slot but suddenly money was available (which, honestly, I'm more inclined to think was the case with Kavadas). Forgive my ignorance, I’m not up on the draft rules. But, knowing Fabian was going to be a tough sign, couldn’t they have drafted a prep arm like Chase Burns in the 10th round and maybe enticed him to sign with money they had allotted for Fabian? No, because once Fabian doesn't sign, the club loses his draft slot money. The money is fungible ONLY for the slots whose draftees you sign. As for the non-signees in the second 10: What would you do with all those shortstops anyway? |
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rasimon
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Post by rasimon on Aug 2, 2021 19:26:56 GMT -5
I wonder what the fair discount rate is for draft picks in baseball. In football the standard conversion for trades is an Nth round pick this year is equivalent to an (N-1)th round pick next year. Example: a 2nd round pick this year is worth a 1st round pick next year. Since you cant trade picks in baseball its not clear what the discount rate for future picks is in baseball, but I would guess its similar to football.
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 2, 2021 19:50:00 GMT -5
The discount rate for NFL draft picks is entirely a principle-agent problem. The GM has job insecurity and so severely discounts future value in favor of present value for selfish reasons. This works against the interests of the team and its fans.
It superficially resembles finance where money today is worth more than money tomorrow because of opportunity cost, compound interest and inflation. The comparison does not hold - NFL draft picks provide a four year only benefit in a zero sum system. Fans outside of a hospice should be closer to indifferent if their team enjoys the value of draft pick from 2021-2024 or 2022-2025
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Post by soxaddict on Aug 2, 2021 22:17:29 GMT -5
Forgive my ignorance, I’m not up on the draft rules. But, knowing Fabian was going to be a tough sign, couldn’t they have drafted a prep arm like Chase Burns in the 10th round and maybe enticed him to sign with money they had allotted for Fabian? No, because once Fabian doesn't sign, the club loses his draft slot money. The money is fungible ONLY for the slots whose draftees you sign. As for the non-signees in the second 10: What would you do with all those shortstops anyway? I guess I didn’t phrase that correctly. Say they drafted Burns in the 10th round, and they were sure Fabian was not going to sign. Could they then offer that money towards Burns to try and entice him not to go to college? Kinda Hickey signed for way over slot in the 5th round. Edit** Oh wait, so are you saying they could only offer Burns anything left over minus the slot amount for the 41st pick? |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 2, 2021 22:25:59 GMT -5
No, because once Fabian doesn't sign, the club loses his draft slot money. The money is fungible ONLY for the slots whose draftees you sign. As for the non-signees in the second 10: What would you do with all those shortstops anyway? I guess I didn’t phrase that correctly. Say they drafted Burns in the 10th round, and they were sure Fabian was not going to sign. Could they then offer that money towards Burns to try and entice him not to go to college? Kinda Hickey signed for way over slot in the 5th round. Edit** Oh wait, so are you saying they could only offer Burns anything left over minus the slot amount for the 41st pick? Because Fabian didn't sign, his slot money goes away. They didn't have any spare money to throw around - like $25k or something. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 2, 2021 22:27:40 GMT -5
The discount rate for NFL draft picks is entirely a principle-agent problem. The GM has job insecurity and so severely discounts future value in favor of present value for selfish reasons. This works against the interests of the team and its fans. It superficially resembles finance where money today is worth more than money tomorrow because of opportunity cost, compound interest and inflation. The comparison does not hold - NFL draft picks provide a four year only benefit in a zero sum system. Fans outside of a hospice should be closer to indifferent if their team enjoys the value of draft pick from 2021-2024 or 2022-2025 Plus NFL draft picks are hard slotted. The value of an MLB draft pick is as much in the slot money that can be moved around as in the player selected. The Red Sox might sign an underslot guy 41 so they can get a guy at their first=round pick who falls and wants overslot for all we know. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 2, 2021 23:56:23 GMT -5
This is a drafting signings thread. Please stop with the back and forth about Mookie. It is exhausting. Wow, glad I missed that. |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 3, 2021 0:22:20 GMT -5
No - he has college eligibility and will be part of the 2022 draft. His best bet this year is to go play pro overseas or maybe in an independent league in the States. My guess is this also, but probably not overseas, here in Indy ball where he will have plenty of rest between games and it will be more of a showcase attempt, then simply shutdown early and wait out the draft. There is a reason Rocker avoided having his elbow checked out and Boras is going to protect it as long as he can until the Rocker autograph is on a contract. I don't expect to see him drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round next year, if even in the 1st round at all. Hiding like this just sends up all sorts of warning flares. I thought I read that NYM didn't even make him an offer because the medicals put the two sides too far apart. So if NYM didn't even make an offer, I don't see how he's "hiding like this." He's got to pick up the pieces and prepare for next year; not ideal but the draft is what it is (which is to say, an effective way to put young players over a barrel).
If I was Kumar, I'd try to play in the Mexican League. Many teams are an easy flight away from the US and I bet he could do well with endorsements. The level of competition would be better than US Indy ball too. Mexico is also an awesome place to visit.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 3, 2021 0:32:53 GMT -5
Agreed and I’m not disparaging Hickey at all, Schwarber was just a monster. And I think while he might move off C, he has a much better shot at sticking than KS did. Just from a watching perspective, Schwarber was such a strong, physical player in college in a way Hickey wasn't completely. The Hickey I saw seemed... unlikely to stick behind the dish, but I've read that he's done a good job improving his body while at Florida, so optimistically there might be even more improvement that could be done there? Um, wouldn't the fact that Schwarber went #4 overall and Hickey dropped to the 5th round give us a rough indication that Schwarber was more highly regarded coming out of college?
Hickey is one of my favorite picks of this draft but even his overslot bonus is equivalent only to the 66th overall pick. We can still hope that Hickey mashes in the bigs like Schwarber in a few years, I guess.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 3, 2021 0:37:35 GMT -5
The discount rate for NFL draft picks is entirely a principle-agent problem. The GM has job insecurity and so severely discounts future value in favor of present value for selfish reasons. This works against the interests of the team and its fans. It superficially resembles finance where money today is worth more than money tomorrow because of opportunity cost, compound interest and inflation. The comparison does not hold - NFL draft picks provide a four year only benefit in a zero sum system. Fans outside of a hospice should be closer to indifferent if their team enjoys the value of draft pick from 2021-2024 or 2022-2025 Plus NFL draft picks are hard slotted. The value of an MLB draft pick is as much in the slot money that can be moved around as in the player selected. The Red Sox might sign an underslot guy 41 so they can get a guy at their first=round pick who falls and wants overslot for all we know. You can also trade NFL picks so there's almost no reason to pick a kid "under slot" in the NFL. You're better off trading back if you really like a certain kid more than his perceived value. As such, NFL draft picks should more or less go off the board in the order of their actual value on the field. |
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mobaz
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Post by mobaz on Aug 3, 2021 7:39:47 GMT -5
My guess is this also, but probably not overseas, here in Indy ball where he will have plenty of rest between games and it will be more of a showcase attempt, then simply shutdown early and wait out the draft. There is a reason Rocker avoided having his elbow checked out and Boras is going to protect it as long as he can until the Rocker autograph is on a contract. I don't expect to see him drafted in the 1st half of the 1st round next year, if even in the 1st round at all. Hiding like this just sends up all sorts of warning flares. I thought I read that NYM didn't even make him an offer because the medicals put the two sides too far apart. So if NYM didn't even make an offer, I don't see how he's "hiding like this." He's got to pick up the pieces and prepare for next year; not ideal but the draft is what it is (which is to say, an effective way to put young players over a barrel).
If I was Kumar, I'd try to play in the Mexican League. Many teams are an easy flight away from the US and I bet he could do well with endorsements. The level of competition would be better than US Indy ball too. Mexico is also an awesome place to visit.
If memory serves they HAVE to make him an offer to get the replacement pick next year, and it has to be a reasonable offer. The Braves had an issue with Carter Stewart's wrist in 2018, and he filed a grievance after failing to sign. According to the article below, the minimum is $2M; the Braves were awarded their replacement pick www.talkingchop.com/2018/7/9/17545928/a-chronology-of-what-happened-with-carter-stewart-and-atlanta-braves |
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Post by manfred on Aug 3, 2021 8:37:19 GMT -5
I thought I read that NYM didn't even make him an offer because the medicals put the two sides too far apart. So if NYM didn't even make an offer, I don't see how he's "hiding like this." He's got to pick up the pieces and prepare for next year; not ideal but the draft is what it is (which is to say, an effective way to put young players over a barrel).
If I was Kumar, I'd try to play in the Mexican League. Many teams are an easy flight away from the US and I bet he could do well with endorsements. The level of competition would be better than US Indy ball too. Mexico is also an awesome place to visit.
If memory serves they HAVE to make him an offer to get the replacement pick next year, and it has to be a reasonable offer. The Braves had an issue with Carter Stewart's wrist in 2018, and he filed a grievance after failing to sign. According to the article below, the minimum is $2M; the Braves were awarded their replacement pick www.talkingchop.com/2018/7/9/17545928/a-chronology-of-what-happened-with-carter-stewart-and-atlanta-bravesTrue, generally, but what I read is that Rocker declined a pre-draft MRI, so the Mets, having balked at his post-draft medicals, are given an exception. They don’t have to make an offer in this case. More knowledgeable folks corrxt me if I’m wrong, svp. |
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Post by arquimedezbozo on Aug 3, 2021 13:18:21 GMT -5
True, generally, but what I read is that Rocker declined a pre-draft MRI, so the Mets, having balked at his post-draft medicals, are given an exception. They don’t have to make an offer in this case. More knowledgeable folks corrxt me if I’m wrong, svp. I’ve read the same thing in a couple different places, including BA: Teams are required to offer 40 percent of the slot value to receive a compensatory pick if the player in question submitted to MLB’s requested pre-draft MRI. Rocker did not undergo a pre-draft MRI, so the Mets were under no obligation to offer a minimum amount to receive the compensatory pick. www.baseballamerica.com/stories/mets-fail-to-sign-kumar-rocker-by-signing-deadline/ |
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Aug 3, 2021 22:06:38 GMT -5
It looks like they're all in the books.
16/20 signed, with the guys who didn't sign being the guys not expected to (with Fabian being the highest profile).
A couple nice Day 3 gets in Guerrero and Kavadas... and may we all live long enough to see Elmer pitch in Fenway.
Bit of an overpay for Hickey but his value would grow if the rules change (robot umps, universal DH) but he swings a solid stick and I'll be comparing him with Miller all the way up through the system.
Oh, and a potential franchise cornerstone in Mayer... plus a bonus pick next year.
Not a bad draft.
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Post by madstork on Aug 9, 2021 13:01:23 GMT -5
Anyone know why Jud Fabian hasn’t signed?
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redsox04071318champs
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 9, 2021 13:04:43 GMT -5
Anyone know why Jud Fabian hasn’t signed? $$. The Sox didn't offer the $3 million he wanted. |
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Post by ramireja on Aug 9, 2021 13:08:18 GMT -5
Anyone know why Jud Fabian hasn’t signed? Yup, and the signing deadline has passed, so Fabian isn't signing with us. We collect the #41 pick overall in next year's draft as a result. |
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Post by madstork on Aug 9, 2021 13:29:46 GMT -5
You would think Boston would have known what he was seeking to sign as a second round pick before they drafted the player?
Sox are out a top pick that might have become a player
Bad front office management or did player change his mind?
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