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2021 Draft Signing Period
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Post by incandenza on Jul 19, 2021 11:54:23 GMT -5
I'm not sure what the disagreement even is here. It's that you think their actions were motivated by an effort to influence the draft picks that were made above them, whereas I do not. To be sure, the stakes of this disagreement are extremely low and it's probably not worth pursuing! But I have to procrastinate from work somehow...  |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 19, 2021 13:43:48 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 19, 2021 13:49:00 GMT -5
They had a bunch of guys fly into Fort Myers this week including Miller and Sikes. My guess is we get a release near the end of the week with the first round of official signings.
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Post by jchang on Jul 19, 2021 14:34:32 GMT -5
Mayer said he would sign for slot, possibly meaning if 1-1, then 1-1 money , possibly with some limit, like 1-6 floor. Suppose the pirates, texas and Detroit rated the top four as close so whoever takes the lower bonus would allow room for another bonus baby with their next pick. Then the two high bonus picks outweigh what ever the difference between the top four are. Hence the maneuvering shenanigans are irrelevant as there is a logical reason for what happened
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 19, 2021 17:25:00 GMT -5
Mayer said he would sign for slot, possibly meaning if 1-1, then 1-1 money , possibly with some limit, like 1-6 floor. Suppose the pirates, texas and Detroit rated the top four as close so whoever takes the lower bonus would allow room for another bonus baby with their next pick. Then the two high bonus picks outweigh what ever the difference between the top four are. Hence the maneuvering shenanigans are irrelevant as there is a logical reason for what happened Mayer has not said he would sign for slot that I've seen? Or are you saying this as a hypothetical? Anyway what you're describing is what we've been trying to say is what clearly seems to have happened - Texas and Detroit were locked in with their picks, and Pittsburgh likely had two or more guys ranked closely enough they took the one who had the lowest bonus figure in order to spread it around to their next three picks in Solometo, White and Chandler. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 20, 2021 9:14:25 GMT -5
This one was already known, but just further confirmation:
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Post by texs31 on Jul 20, 2021 10:27:55 GMT -5
Mayer said he would sign for slot, possibly meaning if 1-1, then 1-1 money , possibly with some limit, like 1-6 floor. Suppose the pirates, texas and Detroit rated the top four as close so whoever takes the lower bonus would allow room for another bonus baby with their next pick. Then the two high bonus picks outweigh what ever the difference between the top four are. Hence the maneuvering shenanigans are irrelevant as there is a logical reason for what happened Mayer has not said he would sign for slot that I've seen? Or are you saying this as a hypothetical? Anyway what you're describing is what we've been trying to say is what clearly seems to have happened - Texas and Detroit were locked in with their picks, and Pittsburgh likely had two or more guys ranked closely enough they took the one who had the lowest bonus figure in order to spread it around to their next three picks in Solometo, White and Chandler. In the FanGraphs Day 1 Recap, there was a comment from KG that "late word had Mayer demanding an at-slot deal with any pick" but I think it was more "you're not getting a deal by drafting me at [insert pick #]". This was also referenced on page 2 of the Mayer Thread here. Maybe the source of the statement above. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 20, 2021 10:36:04 GMT -5
Yeah I took the comment less as saying he will literally sign for slot so much as he wasn't cutting a deal, like you.
I have since come down on what I think it'll take to sign him (in large part due to our conversation with Jim), but I do think it'll take a little bit over slot.
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Post by Mike Andrews on Jul 20, 2021 17:27:26 GMT -5
Fully vetted the scouting reports, bios, & stat lines for all of the draftees, talked it over with the brass, did some social media stalking, and reviewed the discussion here. Changed some of my projections slightly. Again, this is all still largely speculation. Top Ten Rounds (entire amount counts towards bonus cap)
Round, Overall Pick, Player, Projected Bonus1 Marcelo Mayer $7,100,000 2 Jud Fabian $2,450,000 3 Tyler McDonough $831,100 (slot) 4 Elmer Rodriguez $200,000 5 Nathan Hickey $700,000 6 Daniel McElveny $200,000 7 Wyatt Olds $100,000 8 Hunter Dobbins $100,000 9 Tyler Miller $125,000 10 Matt Litwicki $47,500 After 10th round, above $125K (first $125,000 does not count towards bonus cap)11 Niko Kavadas $175,000 ($50k towards cap) After 10th round, possible $125,000 or less signs (count $0 towards cap)12 Christopher Troye 13 Zach Ehrhard 14 Jacob Webb 16 BJ Vela 18 Phillip Sikes 19 Tyler Uberstine Total spent towards cap using these projections: $11,903,600 Red Sox Cap: $11,359,600 Red Sox Cap +5%: (no draft pick penalty): $11,927,580 Super wicked early projected not to sign15 Payton Green 17 Luis Guerrero 20 Josh Hood Another round of updates |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 21, 2021 11:07:17 GMT -5
With the Red Sox back at home against the Yankees tomorrow, I'd expect that Mayer will be in the house and they'll have him on the field, etc., as they typically do with their first round picks. I assume he'll sign then (as early as tomorrow). I think they'll probably announce a bunch of other signings, too.
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Post by The Duck on Jul 21, 2021 11:29:04 GMT -5
With the Red Sox back at home against the Yankees tomorrow, I'd expect that Mayer will be in the house and they'll have him on the field, etc., as they typically do with their first round picks. I assume he'll sign then (as early as tomorrow). I think they'll probably announce a bunch of other signings, too. Would an early signing like that indicate a lower number? As in the Sox do not have to complete other signings to ensure that a larger amount is even available? |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 21, 2021 11:31:37 GMT -5
It's not really an early signing. The entire signing period is 3 weeks this year.
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Post by The Duck on Jul 21, 2021 11:45:50 GMT -5
It's not really an early signing. The entire signing period is 3 weeks this year. Of which 10 days remain, hence the early. And my point remains that until 2-10 sign, they don't know how much is available to spend over slot. And don't you have a day job to tend to? |
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Jul 21, 2021 13:06:09 GMT -5
It's not really an early signing. The entire signing period is 3 weeks this year. Of which 10 days remain, hence the early. And my point remains that until 2-10 sign, they don't know how much is available to spend over slot. And don't you have a day job to tend to? Most, likely 60%+, draft picks sign well before the actual deadline date. The Red Sox have already signed 20% of their class publicly, and probably have deals with plenty more we don't know about. It's not signing "early" because it's within the designated signing period. Signing early would mean signing immediately after the first round before the draft even ends, or something like that. It seems like you might be new to the whole MLB Draft thing, so just in case, I will repeat what has been said many times which is that these teams generally have a good idea of what it's going to take to sign guys, so even if Mayer signs before their 2nd-10th rounders, they will likely not put themselves in much danger of running over the slot + 5% cap. So not only are you making fairly invalid points, you picked the absolute worst person to throw an unnecessary, unprompted, and out of the blue rude response to. But I'll stop there, as I need to get back to my day job. |
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 21, 2021 13:13:32 GMT -5
It's not really an early signing. The entire signing period is 3 weeks this year. Plus there are several teams to my knowledge that have already signed most of their players. I think as of today, over half the 1st rounders have signed. Saw a tweet to that notion somewhere this morning. The Blue Jays I think are a team that’s already used up almost all of their 105%. If anything, compared to some other teams, the Sox are taking their time. |
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 21, 2021 13:18:32 GMT -5
It's not really an early signing. The entire signing period is 3 weeks this year. Of which 10 days remain, hence the early. And my point remains that until 2-10 sign, they don't know how much is available to spend over slot. And don't you have a day job to tend to? 17 of the 30 first-rounders have signed. It's not really that quick was all I was saying. As for the "lower number" thing, I'm not quite sure what you mean "lower" than. As I said recently, after talking to Jim Callis for the podcast, it doesn't sound like he's going to need a terribly overslot deal. My guess is the last dominos are Fabian and Hickey. Those guys might take until the last couple days. |
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 21, 2021 14:10:02 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 21, 2021 14:14:53 GMT -5
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 21, 2021 17:33:44 GMT -5
Sounds like tomorrow may be the day:
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,202 
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Post by jimoh on Jul 22, 2021 10:18:38 GMT -5
Interesting to hear Jim Callis opine on the (great!) pod that Niko Kavadas would sign for slot.
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Post by The Duck on Jul 22, 2021 11:22:11 GMT -5
Of which 10 days remain, hence the early. And my point remains that until 2-10 sign, they don't know how much is available to spend over slot. And don't you have a day job to tend to? Most, likely 60%+, draft picks sign well before the actual deadline date. The Red Sox have already signed 20% of their class publicly, and probably have deals with plenty more we don't know about. It's not signing "early" because it's within the designated signing period. Signing early would mean signing immediately after the first round before the draft even ends, or something like that. It seems like you might be new to the whole MLB Draft thing, so just in case, I will repeat what has been said many times which is that these teams generally have a good idea of what it's going to take to sign guys, so even if Mayer signs before their 2nd-10th rounders, they will likely not put themselves in much danger of running over the slot + 5% cap. So not only are you making fairly invalid points, you picked the absolute worst person to throw an unnecessary, unprompted, and out of the blue rude response to. But I'll stop there, as I need to get back to my day job. I apologize to the readers who get to this before it is justifiably removed by the mods. I tried to let it go, but it is just eating at me. I understand the MLB Draft "thing" fairly well, having been a member and supporter of this site longer than you. It may well turn out that everything I said does not happen, but none of it is "invalid". My reference to Chris was to a comment he made earlier this week about not leaving his day job, and he answered my post in about 2 minutes in the middle of work hours. You were correct on one thing though: it is much easier to throw an unnecessary, unprompted, and out of the blue rude response to a nobody with 30 posts than to an executive of the site. Kudos. |
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Post by vermontsox1 on Jul 22, 2021 14:59:42 GMT -5
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,607
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Post by radiohix on Jul 22, 2021 15:03:56 GMT -5
Interesting.
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Post by 1toolplayer on Jul 22, 2021 15:05:41 GMT -5
Spier quickly confirms as well!
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Post by Addam603 on Jul 22, 2021 15:10:02 GMT -5
Mayer gets $164k more than Davis took to be 1-1.
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