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Red Sox Acquire Kyle Schwarber for Aldo Ramirez
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 12, 2021 11:08:43 GMT -5
Hey I looked at the video....and what impressed me was his ability to hit 'high in the zone' pitches with authority. We are so used to those pitches being missed by so many of our guys especially LH hitters who reputedly prefer low in zone stuff. Maybe he can coach the Dalbecs of our world.🙄 Facetious or not, you nailed this. Not only Kyle's high strike power, which he displayed on the tank job he hit off Cole in the WC game, but according to the Athletic (sorry, I don't have a subscription but it was quoted in a different thread in these pages) he was one of the main drivers behind Dalbec's late-season renaissance... starting his coaching sessions right around the time you wrote this...
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Post by joemayosparty on Oct 12, 2021 13:12:08 GMT -5
He may be expensive to re-sign, maybe prohibitively expensive, but to paraphrase satiric columnist Norm Chad, "Pay the man, Chaim".
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 12, 2021 14:30:16 GMT -5
He may be expensive to re-sign, maybe prohibitively expensive, but to paraphrase satiric columnist Norm Chad, "Pay the man, Chaim". I'm dubious that Chaim will pay top-market, multi-year money for a DH-only player. I think there will be more emphasis on defense (both glove-first and more expensive bat+glove guys) over the next couple off-seasons...
EDIT: I also don't think he'll be handing out a ton of 12-year, $350+m contracts, bat+glove or otherwise...
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2021 14:42:19 GMT -5
He may be expensive to re-sign, maybe prohibitively expensive, but to paraphrase satiric columnist Norm Chad, "Pay the man, Chaim". I'm dubious that Chaim will pay top-market, multi-year money for a DH-only player. I think there will be more emphasis on defense (both glove-first and more expensive bat+glove guys) over the next couple off-seasons...
I still come back to the question in my mind what is top of the market for a DH only right now? In 2018 JD set the bar at 23.75 million over 5 years. Since then we haven't seen any DH only guy even come close. The i closest i can think of is Nelson Cruz going year to year for 13 or so. Is top of the market for DH only the Nelson Cruz deal, or what I find most likely somewhere between the 13 and I'd guess 20? Also add the caveat that DH is likely coming to the NL but when? even if not this year it just takes one team to look at Schwarber at first base and think we can get by for a season until DH is added.
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Post by joemayosparty on Oct 12, 2021 15:49:17 GMT -5
I get that he's not going to remind anyone of Anthony Rizzo at first base. But he's not Dick Stuart, either. Yes, he's primarily a DH, but with some additional time at the position you'd think he'd at least be passable. And the intangibles he brings, great teammate and erstwhile Assistant Batting Coach (at least for Dalbec) would make him contract worth (at the right price). And in a year or so when Casas is available and JD is gone, he slides into the DH slot. Not my money, but I'd try to get something done with him.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Oct 12, 2021 16:31:02 GMT -5
He also doesn't have to play 1B (especially if Dalbec improves or Casas becomes ready) - he's not a total butcher in LF:
+3.2 UZR/150 -3 per 1000 innings DRS -8.6 OOA per 1000 innings (this is bad but it doesn't account for his plus arm)
Given that Schwarber has a good arm but below average range, he is actually a great fit in LF in Fenway. Could work it into a decent platoon (some 1b against RHers and LF against LHers) depending on what happens with Martinez and Renfroe.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 12, 2021 16:37:42 GMT -5
He also doesn't have to play 1B (especially if Dalbec improves or Casas becomes ready) - he's not a total butcher in LF: +3.2 UZR/150 -3 per 1000 innings DRS -8.6 OOA per 1000 innings (this is bad but it doesn't account for his plus arm) Given that Schwarber has a good arm but below average range, he is actually a great fit in LF in Fenway. Could work it into a decent platoon (some 1b against RHers and LF against LHers) depending on what happens with Martinez and Renfroe. Some of the it's either schwarber or JD stuff does puzzle me because as you've pointed out Schwarber isn't a complete butcher out there and could probably man LF for the home games somewhat decently and can fill in at first too. Do I see them signing both of them to longer term deals this offseason? No. But if JD opts in and Schwarber decides he likes it in Boston they could figure it out for next season.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 13, 2021 8:08:36 GMT -5
He also doesn't have to play 1B (especially if Dalbec improves or Casas becomes ready) - he's not a total butcher in LF: +3.2 UZR/150 -3 per 1000 innings DRS -8.6 OOA per 1000 innings (this is bad but it doesn't account for his plus arm) Given that Schwarber has a good arm but below average range, he is actually a great fit in LF in Fenway. Could work it into a decent platoon (some 1b against RHers and LF against LHers) depending on what happens with Martinez and Renfroe. Some of the it's either schwarber or JD stuff does puzzle me because as you've pointed out Schwarber isn't a complete butcher out there and could probably man LF for the home games somewhat decently and can fill in at first too. Do I see them signing both of them to longer term deals this offseason? No. But if JD opts in and Schwarber decides he likes it in Boston they could figure it out for next season. They better resign Schwaber… one of the Sox biggest advantages has been their stud DHs over the years. I really hope Bloom continues that with Schwaber and it would be ideal if JD opted in for one more season.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Oct 13, 2021 9:52:53 GMT -5
I’ll be extremely sad if we don’t re-sign Schwarber. Just a fun, smart hitter with a good personality for Boston. And we’ve seen what he does in October (career .994 OPS).
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 13, 2021 10:00:23 GMT -5
I like Schwarber but I'm not quite on the same level as we have to resign this guy. I dont want to see them get in some bidding war over him. 4 years 50-60 million would probably be the max I'd like to see them to go for him. Someone wants to pay more for him and he takes it than thank you for a fun ride but I'd rather they maintain the flexibility.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 13, 2021 10:01:02 GMT -5
I think it could work, if JD opts in and they re-sign Schwarber. Somebody will get injured and Dalbec can get some action. He also would be good trade bait for pitching if it came down to it.
A spring training could help Schwarber to be semi-adequate at 1b next season. Get one more good year out of JDM and let him walk after the season and Schwarber would be ready to move into his ideal role, DH for 2023. By then Casas should be at 1b. Of course Casas could force his way up sooner at some point in 2022 but that's not a bad problem to have.
Schwarber's fit in Boston is obvious. He's got the right personality for it. His atbats are clinics in discipline. No, he doesn't have the greatest hit tool but his judgment of the strike zone has allowed him to zero in on hittable pitches as he gets himself ahead in the count and if the pitch isn't there, he won't swing at it. I guess it's a matter of how much other teams would be willing to give him as far as length of contract goes. He is a DH, so I don't know that another team gives him 5 years. But if the Sox can get him for 3 or 4 years that would be ideal.
I can see Bloom looking at him as more than a rental and I think Schwarber would be quite open to returning. I'm hopeful on this one.
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Post by jbuttah on Oct 13, 2021 10:06:12 GMT -5
I think the odds are that JD doesn't opt out, and if he doesn't I think odds are that Bloom does not resign Schwarber unless its for a huge discount, something like 1/10mm.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 13, 2021 10:17:00 GMT -5
I think the odds are that JD doesn't opt out, and if he doesn't I think odds are that Bloom does not resign Schwarber unless its for a huge discount, something like 1/10mm. Don't see a huge discount with Schwarber. He had over 30 homers despite missing a month and a sky high OBP. He'll get paid.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 13, 2021 10:34:47 GMT -5
I think the odds are that JD doesn't opt out, and if he doesn't I think odds are that Bloom does not resign Schwarber unless its for a huge discount, something like 1/10mm. Don't see a huge discount with Schwarber. He had over 30 homers despite missing a month and a sky high OBP. He'll get paid. Try as I might I can't seem to find any good comparisons in the past few years for Schwarber. Last year Brantley got 2 years 16 AAV and Turner got 2 years 17 AAV. Both older than schwarber and turner plays a more premium position. Brantley appears to be at least an average LF. 2020 Castellanos got 4 years 16 AAV. I can't escape the question of what is getting paid for a guy like schwarber these days who is more bat than glove? We'll find out soon enough though.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 13, 2021 11:30:09 GMT -5
Don't see a huge discount with Schwarber. He had over 30 homers despite missing a month and a sky high OBP. He'll get paid. Try as I might I can't seem to find any good comparisons in the past few years for Schwarber. Last year Brantley got 2 years 16 AAV and Turner got 2 years 17 AAV. Both older than schwarber and turner plays a more premium position. Brantley appears to be at least an average LF. 2020 Castellanos got 4 years 16 AAV. I can't escape the question of what is getting paid for a guy like schwarber these days who is more bat than glove? We'll find out soon enough though. I have no idea. But Dan Szymborski who does the ZIPS projections at fangraphs had his algorithm spit out 3/58 or so. Which would seem like good value to me. I have a hunch he gets more years than that though.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 13, 2021 11:35:23 GMT -5
Try as I might I can't seem to find any good comparisons in the past few years for Schwarber. Last year Brantley got 2 years 16 AAV and Turner got 2 years 17 AAV. Both older than schwarber and turner plays a more premium position. Brantley appears to be at least an average LF. 2020 Castellanos got 4 years 16 AAV. I can't escape the question of what is getting paid for a guy like schwarber these days who is more bat than glove? We'll find out soon enough though. I have no idea. But Dan Szymborski who does the ZIPS projections at fangraphs had his algorithm spit out 3/58 or so. Which would seem like good value to me. I have a hunch he gets more years than that though. Almost 20 AAV to me seems too steep for a guy best served to DH over half the time. Perhaps that's because it's only 3 years though? Maybe 4-5 years brings it closer to 15 AAV? Though as we've all seen in every sport it just takes one team so maybe that 20 AAV does happen even though it really hasn't recently with a guy of his profile.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Oct 13, 2021 13:02:08 GMT -5
He also doesn't have to play 1B (especially if Dalbec improves or Casas becomes ready) - he's not a total butcher in LF: +3.2 UZR/150 -3 per 1000 innings DRS -8.6 OOA per 1000 innings (this is bad but it doesn't account for his plus arm) Given that Schwarber has a good arm but below average range, he is actually a great fit in LF in Fenway. Could work it into a decent platoon (some 1b against RHers and LF against LHers) depending on what happens with Martinez and Renfroe. I'm not sure looking at career numbers paints the right picture, both Fangraphs and Baseball Refrence show him declining the last three years. His career UZR/150 is +3.2, yet that's based on his age 22-25 seasons. The last three years -.9, -2.5 and -6.3. DRS last three years in LF, 140 games -2, 48 games -3, 87 games -5. If you want to sign him long-term I wouldn't overlook that trend and if it continues he's going to be horrible in LF rather soon. Even his arm ratings have gone down for three straight years. If you want to play him in the field, 1B might be the only spot.
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Post by rjp313jr on Oct 13, 2021 14:56:12 GMT -5
Schwaber isn’t getting a huge contract. He doesn’t have a defensive position. We’ve seen this before.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 13, 2021 15:00:26 GMT -5
Schwaber isn’t getting a huge contract. He doesn’t have a defensive position. We’ve seen this before. This is how I've started to feel when I tried to find any sort of comps in the previous few off seasons.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 13, 2021 21:51:43 GMT -5
He'd look pretty good in Yankee pinstripes as DH...
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 13, 2021 21:54:24 GMT -5
I like Schwarber but I'm not quite on the same level as we have to resign this guy. I dont want to see them get in some bidding war over him. 4 years 50-60 million would probably be the max I'd like to see them to go for him. Someone wants to pay more for him and he takes it than thank you for a fun ride but I'd rather they maintain the flexibility. He's also un-QO-able, so let the bidding war begin. I'll be surprised if he's back.
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Post by Underwater Johnson on Oct 13, 2021 22:13:58 GMT -5
He'd look pretty good in Yankee pinstripes as DH... I don't think they'd flatter him (although he already modeled blue stripes on the North Side).
I don't know that the MFYs would do that... although now that you've brought it up, I think I would love how it would make their roster even worse on defense and less athletic.
Would be sad to see him go there but their main problem is that they already have too many bat-first, no-glove, DH/pre-DH guys -- they could barely fit Rizzo into the lineup because they already had DJLM, Urshela, Voit, Stanton. Imagine if they add Schwarber at close to $20m AAV, on top of Cole ($30m+), Stanton ($30m+), and DJLM ($16m), plus Judge ($17m) and Gallo's ($10m) final arb years and they're going to want to extend Judge at something approaching Stantonian numbers. And that's without Rizzo, who became an immediate fan favorite because of his big first week.
Just checked in on their B-R page: They had three members of their starting lineup with an OPS+ over 100. Rizzo (49 games), Stanton (big second half) and Judge.
Talk about stars and scrubs...
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Post by benzinger on Oct 13, 2021 23:52:23 GMT -5
I have no idea. But Dan Szymborski who does the ZIPS projections at fangraphs had his algorithm spit out 3/58 or so. Which would seem like good value to me. I have a hunch he gets more years than that though. Almost 20 AAV to me seems too steep for a guy best served to DH over half the time. Perhaps that's because it's only 3 years though? Maybe 4-5 years brings it closer to 15 AAV? Though as we've all seen in every sport it just takes one team so maybe that 20 AAV does happen even though it really hasn't recently with a guy of his profile. I could see him getting the Eovaldi contract(4yr/$68m), or something close to it, this offseason. He just had the best season of his career and he’s right in his prime. I’m sure NL teams would consider him at 1B until the universal DH is in play. I doubt the Sox are the team to pay him. Definitely not if JDM stays.
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Post by benzinger on Oct 13, 2021 23:53:40 GMT -5
He'd look pretty good in Yankee pinstripes as DH... I don't think they'd flatter him (although he already modeled blue stripes on the North Side).
I don't know that the MFYs would do that... although now that you've brought it up, I think I would love how it would make their roster even worse on defense and less athletic.
Would be sad to see him go there but their main problem is that they already have too many bat-first, no-glove, DH/pre-DH guys -- they could barely fit Rizzo into the lineup because they already had DJLM, Urshela, Voit, Stanton. Imagine if they add Schwarber at close to $20m AAV, on top of Cole ($30m+), Stanton ($30m+), and DJLM ($16m), plus Judge ($17m) and Gallo's ($10m) final arb years and they're going to want to extend Judge at something approaching Stantonian numbers. And that's without Rizzo, who became an immediate fan favorite because of his big first week.
Just checked in on their B-R page: They had three members of their starting lineup with an OPS+ over 100. Rizzo (49 games), Stanton (big second half) and Judge.
Talk about stars and scrubs...
Hey, if Cashman wants to load up his roster with guys like Joey Gallo and Odor, you let him!
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Post by agastonguay13 on Oct 14, 2021 7:45:33 GMT -5
He may be expensive to re-sign, maybe prohibitively expensive, but to paraphrase satiric columnist Norm Chad, "Pay the man, Chaim". I'm dubious that Chaim will pay top-market, multi-year money for a DH-only player. I think there will be more emphasis on defense (both glove-first and more expensive bat+glove guys) over the next couple off-seasons...
EDIT: I also don't think he'll be handing out a ton of 12-year, $350+m contracts, bat+glove or otherwise...
I don't see Schwarber as a DH only player. First of all, he's been transitioning to 1B for like 3 months. Give him an off-season to work on it and maybe you have a guy who can be adequate there when facing RHPs. Second, he's not AWFUL in LF, especially in the smaller one at Fenway. I would honestly consider trading Renfroe since his Arb $# is going to be near $7-8mil and I worry that this season was more of a career year than a "coming into his own" year. This allows you to use Schwarber at 3 positions (1B, LF, DH). Then maybe you go get another OF who hits righties well to play when it's Schwarber's turn at 1B since Dalbec won't be in the lineup. Or maybe you don't do any of those things if you believe Casas is coming up <soon> to, at the very least, fill the LHH 1B platoon role, since that decreases the amount of versatility you'd need out of Schwarber, and re-signing him will likely cost relatively large money over relatively long years, overlapping with Casas' affordable years. Idfk...
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