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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by jawnvalentin on Aug 5, 2023 13:13:44 GMT -5
I just want to see what the kid can do at the MLB level. He's shown a lot of ways he can impact winning. I think he's a better prospect than Johan Rojas, who is starting a lot of games for the Phillies in CF right now.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 5, 2023 13:47:51 GMT -5
He's pulling a Mookie Betts(lite) right now. Not saying he's close to Mookie Betts-caliber (although his style of play, tools, and statistics are very similar to what Betts showed during his sudden and rapid ascent... haha save for the massive difference in plate discipline/walk rate/OBP. etc.. which is critical to success in the MLB)
Different in the sense that Betts was really on no one's radar other than the Sox organization, until that 2013 season, whereas Rafaela has kind of popped in and out of the top 100 lists for years now (has also been with the organization since he was 16)..
But based on what I continue to watch daily, I now have a gut feeling he's going to be an impact player for the Boston Red Sox well before Marcelo Mayer is.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 5, 2023 20:18:01 GMT -5
Kid is unreal and I hope we don’t have to wait for roster expansion to see him in Boston
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 5, 2023 20:24:29 GMT -5
If they aren't going to call him up right now then they may as well just save the year of control and call him next June.
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Post by jmei on Aug 5, 2023 20:41:03 GMT -5
The thing that impressed me is his power to all fields. Lots of little guys have pull side power (Pedroia comes to mind) but it takes serious bat speed to consistently drive pitches the other way at his size.
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Post by adamgregory81 on Aug 5, 2023 20:46:03 GMT -5
Ceddanne is quickly becoming my favorite Red Sox prospect of all time. A big reason for that is all the advanced stats guys on this thread; which have effectively turned him into an underdog.
Doubting a 21 year old kid because his walk and strikeout rates don’t project well? He’s a 21 year old kid!!! He just gets better and better.
This is the next great red sock, stop getting caught up in the blunt prospect evaluation equations and enjoy the rise.
(It’s an important reminder that most, if not all, stats are descriptive, but not predictive)
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briam
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Post by briam on Aug 5, 2023 20:57:51 GMT -5
At what point does AAA not serve him any good? Doesn’t look like his approach will ever change so if you believe the guy can help why not just call him up?
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Post by abrinker on Aug 5, 2023 23:16:43 GMT -5
Ceddanne is quickly becoming my favorite Red Sox prospect of all time. A big reason for that is all the advanced stats guys on this thread; which have effectively turned him into an underdog. Doubting a 21 year old kid because his walk and strikeout rates don’t project well? He’s a 21 year old kid!!! He just gets better and better. This is the next great red sock, stop getting caught up in the blunt prospect evaluation equations and enjoy the rise. (It’s an important reminder that most, if not all, stats are descriptive, but not predictive) He actually turns 23 next month. Not sure where you got 21. Still an exciting prospect.
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Post by patford on Aug 5, 2023 23:57:22 GMT -5
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2023 5:48:00 GMT -5
He's pulling a Mookie Betts(lite) right now. Not saying he's close to Mookie Betts-caliber (although his style of play, tools, and statistics are very similar to what Betts showed during his sudden and rapid ascent... haha save for the massive difference in plate discipline/walk rate/OBP. etc.. which is critical to success in the MLB) Different in the sense that Betts was really on no one's radar other than the Sox organization, until that 2013 season, whereas Rafaela has kind of popped in and out of the top 100 lists for years now (has also been with the organization since he was 16).. But based on what I continue to watch daily, I now have a gut feeling he's going to be an impact player for the Boston Red Sox well before Marcelo Mayer is. Mookie was a 20 year old A+ level player when he started getting national attention. Remember the Mookie Meter ? Rafaela is a 22 year old AAA player who has yet to get that level of attention. I don't see a parallel.
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Post by Foulke_In_Athol on Aug 6, 2023 7:02:07 GMT -5
This team really needs some energy. Give him a cup of coffee and see if he can be a spark. At this point there isn't much to lose.
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Post by nonothing on Aug 6, 2023 7:20:49 GMT -5
The thing that impressed me is his power to all fields. Lots of little guys have pull side power (Pedroia comes to mind) but it takes serious bat speed to consistently drive pitches the other way at his size. This is huge and could not agree more.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 6, 2023 13:02:43 GMT -5
I think the 3 questions for how good he can be in the MLB
1. Can he hit .270 or better 2. Can he achieve a walk rate around 7% 3. Can he keep his k rates around 18-22%
I think 1 is definitely trending toward yes.
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Post by jodyreidnichols on Aug 6, 2023 13:29:17 GMT -5
Even Bogaerts struggled when they brought him up and put him on the playoff roster in 2013, and he was a super prospect. Nearly everyone struggles when they first come up, even future MVP's. It's extremely rare to flourish right off the bat, Doc Gooden and Fernando Mania are two rare exceptions. I've paraphrased Ted Williams many times and repeated this phrase several times here, 'never judge a batter until he's had 1,000 at-bats and pitchers (starters) 500 IP'. This used to be basically 2 season. I'd knock the pitching down to 300 IP today.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2023 21:09:35 GMT -5
I think the 3 questions for how good he can be in the MLB 1. Can he hit .270 or better 2. Can he achieve a walk rate around 7% 3. Can he keep his k rates around 18-22% I think 1 is definitely trending toward yes. As the importance of 1 goes up, the importance of 2 & 3 goes down. That said, I am not a fan of calling him up now.
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 6, 2023 21:33:43 GMT -5
Ceddanne is quickly becoming my favorite Red Sox prospect of all time. A big reason for that is all the advanced stats guys on this thread; which have effectively turned him into an underdog. Doubting a 21 year old kid because his walk and strikeout rates don’t project well? He’s a 21 year old kid!!! He just gets better and better. This is the next great red sock, stop getting caught up in the blunt prospect evaluation equations and enjoy the rise. (It’s an important reminder that most, if not all, stats are descriptive, but not predictive) I think it’s kind of silly to imply that evaluating hitters’ plate approach, plate coverage, quality of contact, etc etc has no basis in scouting, just because people are tossing around public facing minor league stats on the internet. I think basically everyone is excited about this exciting player, and hopes he can crush it in the majors. There are no perfect prospects. We have choices here besides being pollyanna, or being totally out on a given player. If those are our only two choices, it wouldn’t be much of a resource.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 6, 2023 22:02:03 GMT -5
That said, I am not a fan of calling him up now. Given that you've been pounding the table for him (mean this respectfully as an observation, not being snarky), I'm curious - why?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2023 22:58:55 GMT -5
That said, I am not a fan of calling him up now. Given that you've been pounding the table for him (mean this respectfully as an observation, not being snarky), I'm curious - why? The only time I wanted him called up was when Hamilton was called up, I thought he was the better option there. The Red Sox outfield is already crowded enough and it would be unrealistic to expect Rafaela to be a difference maker right out of the box. Could happen but unlikely.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 6, 2023 23:30:14 GMT -5
I would feel different if Story has a setback but as a SS, not a CF.
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Post by awalkinthepark on Aug 7, 2023 12:16:14 GMT -5
I know that the comparisons to Mookie are superficial, but one aspect of this that I am reminded of is that basically every prospect evaluator was pumping the breaks on Mookie as he was rising through the system, and we are seeing similar things with Rafaela now. It's not like Mookie was all over top prospect lists, the only top 100 list he was ever on was BA at #75 and MLB at #62. Here is what BP had to say about Mookie prior to 2014:
I think the consensus around Mookie was that he didn't fit the mold of what prospect evaluators look for in a prospect. He was a smaller guy with good approach/contact skills but not a lot of raw power, he could run but he wasn't a burner, and he didn't really have a home defensively. I get why a guy like that sort of fell through the cracks. With Mookie I think it was basically "I have to see it to believe it."
Rafaela is in the same boat to me right now. He just does not have a typical prospect profile - he is small and has an extremely aggressive approach. I get why people who cover prospects professionally are just not willing to buy that, and honestly I don't think they ever will no matter what his slash line looks like in the minors. He could have a 200 wRC+ in Worcester, but if it comes with him swinging at everything you still will have people doubting that it will work in the majors. We are getting close to the point where the only way to know if it will work in the majors is to give him at bats in the majors.
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Post by LoneStarSox on Aug 7, 2023 12:55:06 GMT -5
Very curious to see how things play out between now and the close of the season. ATM he's mostly blocked in the OF, between Masa, Duran, Duvall and Verdugo. I see him getting a cup of coffee when rosters expand with an eye on '24. It would be my expectation that Duvall leaves in the offseason to little fanfare and Ceddanne then works as a utility player splitting time between the CF/RF and middle infield which leaves time to vet out whatever the heck Verdugo actually while providing coverage for SS/2B so he's still getting regular at-bats.
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Post by alexcorahomevideo on Aug 7, 2023 13:14:41 GMT -5
This team really needs some energy. Give him a cup of coffee and see if he can be a spark. At this point there isn't much to lose. Depends on if they're just holding him in the minors to stop the accruing of service time. Might be smart since they can easily call him up at some point in September and save some money long term. Unless something changed and it doesn't matter after August.
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Post by jaffinator on Aug 7, 2023 16:00:22 GMT -5
I know that the comparisons to Mookie are superficial, but one aspect of this that I am reminded of is that basically every prospect evaluator was pumping the breaks on Mookie as he was rising through the system, and we are seeing similar things with Rafaela now. It's not like Mookie was all over top prospect lists, the only top 100 list he was ever on was BA at #75 and MLB at #62. Here is what BP had to say about Mookie prior to 2014: I think the consensus around Mookie was that he didn't fit the mold of what prospect evaluators look for in a prospect. He was a smaller guy with good approach/contact skills but not a lot of raw power, he could run but he wasn't a burner, and he didn't really have a home defensively. I get why a guy like that sort of fell through the cracks. With Mookie I think it was basically "I have to see it to believe it."
Rafaela is in the same boat to me right now. He just does not have a typical prospect profile - he is small and has an extremely aggressive approach. I get why people who cover prospects professionally are just not willing to buy that, and honestly I don't think they ever will no matter what his slash line looks like in the minors. He could have a 200 wRC+ in Worcester, but if it comes with him swinging at everything you still will have people doubting that it will work in the majors. We are getting close to the point where the only way to know if it will work in the majors is to give him at bats in the majors.
Ok, small point but prospect evaluators are essentially always going to be too low on someone like Mookie. Not because just because he's small, but because it's basically impossible to come in too high on a player like Mookie Betts. You either get it correct or you come in too low. This is true of every single true superstar.
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Post by adamgregory81 on Aug 7, 2023 17:12:40 GMT -5
Ceddanne is quickly becoming my favorite Red Sox prospect of all time. A big reason for that is all the advanced stats guys on this thread; which have effectively turned him into an underdog. Doubting a 21 year old kid because his walk and strikeout rates don’t project well? He’s a 21 year old kid!!! He just gets better and better. This is the next great red sock, stop getting caught up in the blunt prospect evaluation equations and enjoy the rise. (It’s an important reminder that most, if not all, stats are descriptive, but not predictive) I think it’s kind of silly to imply that evaluating hitters’ plate approach, plate coverage, quality of contact, etc etc has no basis in scouting, just because people are tossing around public facing minor league stats on the internet. I think basically everyone is excited about this exciting player, and hopes he can crush it in the majors. There are no perfect prospects. We have choices here besides being pollyanna, or being totally out on a given player. If those are our only two choices, it wouldn’t be much of a resource. I agree with you, I was being a little facetious. With that said, any level of certainty when discussing prospects is irritating to me. I love to read optimistic projections, because it’s fun to dream on a player turning into the next Mookie Betts, however unrealistic; but the truth is, projections are rarely correct. And being more cautious doesn’t necessarily make those projections anymore correct. (One of my favorite exercises is to to go back and read old top 100 lists, and/or compare that year’s all star roster to old rankings, it’s pretty clear to be that, with the exception of a very few can’t-miss guys (I.e. Harper, Gerit Cole, Arod, Griffey, etc.), stars are just as likely come from outside of the top 50 prospects as they are to come from the top 15-20 prospects. That isn’t to judge the art of scouting, which for our purposes (I assume you don’t work for the Red Sox), is a fun away to insert a little levity into the daily grind. Still scouting departments are very wrong far more often than they are very right. I think that’s for a very good and obvious reason — the most important quality in any player (or person, for that matter) is not measurable or apparent to the naked eye—it’s an innate and insatiable desire to improve, constantly and continuously. (See, e.g., Tom Brady, Steph Curry, etc.) And I’ll posit that, if a player with the speed and athleticism of Ceddanne Rafaela has that trait, he will be a star, and it doesn’t matter how much he strikes out or walks this season, or how aggressive he is at the plate. Those are improve-able skills.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 8, 2023 10:22:34 GMT -5
It's now been a month exactly since he started hitting at AAA. It's easy to forget that he hit .182 / .229 / .364 in his first 9 G / 35 PA.
Since then he's had 105 PA and is .379 / .429 / .800. His hot stretch breaks neatly into three chunks. I've included the cold start for comparison. PA SO% BB% BA OBP SA 35 .200 .029 .182 .229 .364 33 .303 .000 .367 .424 .761 35 .257 .029 .353 .371 .677 37 .135 .135 .419 .487 .984
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