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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
zoot
Rookie
Posts: 50
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Post by zoot on Aug 8, 2023 11:44:27 GMT -5
It's now been a month exactly since he started hitting at AAA. It's easy to forget that he hit .182 / .229 / .364 in his first 9 G / 35 PA.
Since then he's had 105 PA and is .379 / .429 / .800. His hot stretch breaks neatly into three chunks. I've included the cold start for comparison. PA SO% BB% BA OBP SA 35 .200 .029 .182 .229 .364 33 .303 .000 .367 .424 .761 35 .257 .029 .353 .371 .677 37 .135 .135 .419 .487 .984
That’s a profound shift in the BB% in particular. What happens when you toggle the PA column to level off the PAs more smoothly, say to 35-35-35? Is there any underlying logic in bundling the PAs the way you did? (Not suggesting there was any data manipulation, just curious.)
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 8, 2023 12:49:54 GMT -5
It's now been a month exactly since he started hitting at AAA. It's easy to forget that he hit .182 / .229 / .364 in his first 9 G / 35 PA.
Since then he's had 105 PA and is .379 / .429 / .800. His hot stretch breaks neatly into three chunks. I've included the cold start for comparison. PA SO% BB% BA OBP SA 35 .200 .029 .182 .229 .364 33 .303 .000 .367 .424 .761 35 .257 .029 .353 .371 .677 37 .135 .135 .419 .487 .984
That’s a profound shift in the BB% in particular. What happens when you toggle the PA column to level off the PAs more smoothly, say to 35-35-35? Is there any underlying logic in bundling the PAs the way you did? (Not suggesting there was any data manipulation, just curious.) I considered doing 35 x 3 but that would mean going into game logs and dividing single games into 2 different buckets, which would actually add noise -- SP in a game in 1 bucket, relievers in another.
I did start by trying to identify changes in SO and BB %. Note that he had a 4 walk game in the last group, second game vs. the Syracuse Mets, and didn't walk in the remaining 4 games against them, but that looks like the Mets realizing that he's not chasing as he was in early July against them (7 K, 1 W in 28 PA).
The last group goes:
12 PA, 1 K, 1 BB, .546 / .583 / .909 (first 2 games against Rochester) HR and 4 BB 15 PA, 3 SO, 0 BB, .215 / .200 / .857 (HR in each game, 5 straight games overall) 3/5, 2B, SO in last game of series.
21 Woo games left before MLB rosters expand.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 8, 2023 13:06:23 GMT -5
So what you're showing there is that he makes better quality of contact when he's making better swing decisions? What a concept! Too bad that pointing such a thing out would mean that you're a stat nerd with a personal vendetta against him.
That said, I do think these sample sizes are small enough that they're not predictive and may not even be terribly descriptive. Interesting nonetheless though.
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Post by rhswanzey on Aug 8, 2023 13:31:48 GMT -5
One thing that kind of sucks about the quote feature is you might be responding to a general sentiment from a number of people, but because you have to reply to just one post, it might come across as singling someone out. Apologies if it was interpreted that way. I’m just sitting here wondering where all of these folks were way back in late May!
This game is extremely humbling in that even when you think you’ve figured it all out, or you’re dead sure on a team or a player or basically anything, it may change, sometimes dramatically and unexpectedly.
I’m weary of overreacting to recent performance changes, whether good or bad, or setting expectations so high that it’s almost impossible to satisfy them. It’s definitely fun to dream on the next big thing, and once in a while when we do it, it actually turns out to be the next big thing. We also have so much empirical draft and development history that clarifies that the next big things who turn out to be merely solid big leaguers for a few seasons are actually resounding success stories that still beat the odds.
We’ve got choices besides Mookie Betts lite and a sub replacement player. I hope no one is disappointed if we get a slightly different looking version of Kevin Pillar or Kevin Kiermaier; outcomes along those lines are slam dunk success stories that provide a ton of MLB value for six years before FA. People who are landing in a bucket that land among names more along those lines are absolutely not out or cold on a guy. It’s an incredibly hard game to be excellent at and we should be totally thrilled when we develop 6th/7th inning arms and glove first bottom third of the order regulars, too.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 8, 2023 23:42:21 GMT -5
So what you're showing there is that he makes better quality of contact when he's making better swing decisions? What a concept! Too bad that pointing such a thing out would mean that you're a stat nerd with a personal vendetta against him. That said, I do think these sample sizes are small enough that they're not predictive and may not even be terribly descriptive. Interesting nonetheless though. lol, you are getting testy.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,584
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Post by radiohix on Aug 9, 2023 16:32:49 GMT -5
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Post by natesp4 on Aug 9, 2023 21:21:19 GMT -5
So what you're showing there is that he makes better quality of contact when he's making better swing decisions? What a concept! Too bad that pointing such a thing out would mean that you're a stat nerd with a personal vendetta against him. That said, I do think these sample sizes are small enough that they're not predictive and may not even be terribly descriptive. Interesting nonetheless though. lol, you are getting testy. I get it. Red Sox twitter right now is unbearable. Lots of people lashing out at "nerds and their advanced stats", as if "he swings at bad pitches and as a result gets bad contact" is a deep cut sabrmetric too difficult to understand. Chris seems to get the bulk of that as the quasi-face of Sox Prospects over there.
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Post by dangermike on Aug 9, 2023 23:07:21 GMT -5
lol, you are getting testy. I get it. Red Sox twitter right now is unbearable. Lots of people lashing out at "nerds and their advanced stats", as if "he swings at bad pitches and as a result gets bad contact" is a deep cut sabrmetric too difficult to understand. Chris seems to get the bulk of that as the quasi-face of Sox Prospects over there. Sure - but there’s tempering expectations and then there’s raining on parades and there’s been a loud contingency of stormy individuals when it comes to Rafaela’s bat. This is a community dedicated to prospects a lot of us never see play live and an effusive attempt at downplaying the successes of a forum darling might be met with the same “bah humbug” its delivered with. We all want CR to make a seamless transition to the majors and while this isn’t a wishcasting website (is it not?), let’s not lose sight of that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 9, 2023 23:55:37 GMT -5
I get it. Red Sox twitter right now is unbearable. Lots of people lashing out at "nerds and their advanced stats", as if "he swings at bad pitches and as a result gets bad contact" is a deep cut sabrmetric too difficult to understand. Chris seems to get the bulk of that as the quasi-face of Sox Prospects over there. Sure - but there’s tempering expectations and then there’s raining on parades and there’s been a loud contingency of stormy individuals when it comes to Rafaela’s bat. This is a community dedicated to prospects a lot of us never see play live and an effusive attempt at downplaying the successes of a forum darling might be met with the same “bah humbug” its delivered with. We all want CR to make a seamless transition to the majors and while this isn’t a wishcasting website (is it not?), let’s not lose sight of that. See I think this is the problem. Nobody is doing what you're describing. There is no effusive attempt to downplay anything. This is not a place where folks are going to look at a guy's batting average and declare him the next superstar or, similarly, call him a bust based on the same if there's reason for optimism. Pointing out development points for a player is not an attempt to downplay anything. This is a discussion forum. If there are points to discuss, good and bad, they'll be discussed. And I think the not watching guys play thing is important too. I had a thought the other day that the Venn diagram of people who tell me on Twitter that we have Blaze Jordan ranked way too low and we're idiots because of it and people who have never seen Jordan play is pretty darn close to a big circle with a little circle inside it. If you don't watch guys play and don't want to know about important metrics regarding their performance, don't be upset when people who do both have different opinions than you, y'know? That's all. Not a big deal.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 11, 2023 11:29:58 GMT -5
Please let him also be working on bunting with his speed.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 12, 2023 13:37:24 GMT -5
Understand, please, that I've never seen Rafaela play live and wouldn't be qualified to scout him if I did. Nor can I access the full arrange of descriptive statistics that are available for major league players. I get that he is on the extreme fringe when it comes to chase rate. Yet when I look at his lines since 2021, I see progression.
* His BB and K rates have been stable, but two years ago he was doing that in Salem. Now he is putting up very similar numbers in Worcester.
* His 2021 line showed a .288 BABIP and a .173 ISO, indicative of a lot of weak contact. But his BABIP improved at Greenville, and after a bit of a dip last year at Portland seems to be settling into the .350ish range. I know he is fast, and can beat out a weak dribbler, but you don't maintain a BABIP like that with "weak contact" alone. He must be hitting some balls well?
* And of course he is running a remarkable .345 ISO right now. Are AAA pitchers too stupid to stay away from the heart of the plate? Or is he making solid contact on marginal pitches? Again, a .345 ISO would not normally indicate a lot of weak contact.
Basically I'm wondering how the heck is he putting up that line, just one step removed from the majors? I totally understand that he will need to make some adjustments at the major league level (he WON'T be able to nail pitches a foot outside against ML talent), but given the progression over the last two years and his relatively young age, I'm not seeing why that should be an insurmountable task?
If his defense is even half as good as reported, then a .310 wOBA goes a long way. Out of 28 players with 200+ PA as a CF this year, just 19 have a .310 wOBA -- and many of those don't bring the same defense. Rafaela vs. Tim Anderson -- who has the better career? Willing to bet that he never walks much. He isn't Mookie Betts, he is a far more aggressive hitter. But Kiermaier has made a terrific career out of CF defense (Rafaela walks less but might have a little more power) and Anderson put together some good years without an iota of patience. What does Rafaela need to do to get to that level? And what are his chances of making the necessary adjustments by the end of 2024?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 12, 2023 14:42:30 GMT -5
All I would ask is that when he does come up, we should be patient if his performance at the plate doesn't immediately match expectations. It is, as I've mentioned, a quantum leap these days and the size of that keeps expanding. Regardless, it should be a hell of a lot of fun watching him chase down fly balls in center and run down stray grounders at short.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 12, 2023 14:56:24 GMT -5
Sure - but there’s tempering expectations and then there’s raining on parades and there’s been a loud contingency of stormy individuals when it comes to Rafaela’s bat. This is a community dedicated to prospects a lot of us never see play live and an effusive attempt at downplaying the successes of a forum darling might be met with the same “bah humbug” its delivered with. We all want CR to make a seamless transition to the majors and while this isn’t a wishcasting website (is it not?), let’s not lose sight of that. See I think this is the problem. Nobody is doing what you're describing. There is no effusive attempt to downplay anything. This is not a place where folks are going to look at a guy's batting average and declare him the next superstar or, similarly, call him a bust based on the same if there's reason for optimism. Pointing out development points for a player is not an attempt to downplay anything. This is a discussion forum. If there are points to discuss, good and bad, they'll be discussed. And I think the not watching guys play thing is important too. I had a thought the other day that the Venn diagram of people who tell me on Twitter that we have Blaze Jordan ranked way too low and we're idiots because of it and people who have never seen Jordan play is pretty darn close to a big circle with a little circle inside it. If you don't watch guys play and don't want to know about important metrics regarding their performance, don't be upset when people who do both have different opinions than you, y'know? That's all. Not a big deal. I think you guys are doing a commendable job of tempering expectations, which I honestly think is important for just about every/any top-tier prospect that may get called up in the next couple years (Rafaela/Mayer/etc.). Particularly due to the fact that there may be more of a spotlight on the Red Sox farm system than at ANY point in the past, due to the fact that Chaim Bloom is carrying out a plan for the organization that is quite at odds with everything fans/sportswriters have become accustomed to since 2004 (top 3 payroll virtually every season, huge international signings, etc.) The fact is that while I have learned a ton more this past year than ever about advanced player development metrics thanks to this forum, as well as a few other obvious sources (Baseball Savant, FanGraphs), I am nowhere near understanding enough to claim something like "I know that Rafaela is an outlier, and he's going to be the greatest player since Mookie Betts... blah blah blah." Do I FEEL and BELIEVE strongly that he will be an outlier? Sure. I have watched a majority of his at-bats since his promotion to Worcester, and I do see something special in the making. ...... I've honestly kind of lost track of where I was going with this, but essentially, I think I was hoping to make the point that I am a firm believer in a synthesis between pure data/metrics as predictors of outcomes (due to a background in economics/finance) and also taking into account what you see before your very eyes watching a player like Rafaela (having played baseball at the college level, noticing traits that simply cannot be quantified). When it comes down to it, I think the point Chris makes about there being so many differing opinions/player comps/nitpicking about the degree of success Rafaela can achieve... the reality is that most people here are rooting for the kid to be as incredible as he possibly can. I want Ceddanne Rafaela to be the next Mookie Betts. Is it highly unrealistic? Absolutely. But why would I not look at him and say that I hope he's a 10x All-Star, 5x GG winner, and one of the greatest players of all time? Would you rather have the aforementioned occur, or would you rather be right about your projection of him as a player like Kierimaier or whoever else his numbers tell us he will most likely be? ....... I'm new to the SoxProspects Forum, and I'm absolutely in love with it, and the community. I have ranted, written essays on a daily basis like this one, and said some fairly absurd things in my short time posting (I will attribute a BIT of that to the fact I chose trade deadline week as the time to start getting my thoughts out there...trying to take it down a couple notches in the aftermath) .. I appreciate you not kicking my a** off during that stretch haha. You all are awesome, I'm learning a ton more about this organization thanks to your posts and discussions. GO SOX!
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ephus
Veteran
Posts: 829
Member is Online
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Post by ephus on Aug 12, 2023 18:13:51 GMT -5
Thanks for sharing! I was wondering what the big league guys thought. It is very encouraging that they mention his approach. He'll need to keep a level head because the media is absolutely starting to pay more attention to him and a long winter of overhyping a kid online and in ink will have people expecting the unachievable in the spring.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 12, 2023 18:39:38 GMT -5
All I would ask is that when he does come up, we should be patient if his performance at the plate doesn't immediately match expectations. It is, as I've mentioned, a quantum leap these days and the size of that keeps expanding. Regardless, it should be a hell of a lot of fun watching him chase down fly balls in center and run down stray grounders at short. That's all I'm hoping for in his first year in the majors. Looking around for comps, a lot of those who came close to his profile took a year to adjust. Elite centerfield defense is extremely valuable and worth waiting for.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 12, 2023 22:06:21 GMT -5
It's a month old but I hadn't seen this: “Finishing last year, I made an adjustment with my hands up and stance more up,” Rafaela said. “And I went to the offseason working on that in Curacao. And coming into the season, I see the work has paid off.”
Gragnani said, “We kept his hands higher and made an adjustment with his lower half where he kind of tucked his hips underneath him and he learned to kind of carry the center of his body into a balanced position. And we kind of embraced his aggressiveness instead of trying to tell him, ‘You need to take more pitches.’ That’s such a hard thing to do for young hitters is tell them to take and swing at strikes. It all sounds good in theory but it’s really hard to execute. So our mindset as a group was to embrace his aggressiveness and make sure to put him in a really good position to hit multiple pitch-types.” www.masslive.com/redsox/2022/07/boston-red-soxs-ceddanne-rafaela-has-quick-hands-bat-speed-like-mookie-betts-speaks-4-languages-like-xander-bogaerts.htmlI don't think at all that the Sox are working on what some think the Sox are working on.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 12, 2023 22:21:31 GMT -5
That's actually been stated and understood by SP staff and those posting here. The idea of tempering his aggressiveness was put aside by the coaches a while back.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 12, 2023 22:26:03 GMT -5
Yes but the he needs to be more selective to be successful in the majors theme is pretty much a constant.
ADD: And I don't remember seeing an article stating it.
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Post by RedSoxStats on Aug 12, 2023 23:25:35 GMT -5
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Post by RedSoxStats on Aug 12, 2023 23:35:08 GMT -5
Here are Rafaela's updated ranks among 398 AAA players 34th barrels/batted ball 38th hard hit rate 163rd z-contact 169th strikeout rate 226th 95th percentile exit velo 315th contact rate on swings 362nd max exit velocity 390th o-zone chase rate 391st walk rate
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 13, 2023 1:02:49 GMT -5
So, where's the weak contact ?
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 13, 2023 3:15:40 GMT -5
I am guessing that you can count on one hand the people that are in the upper right quadrant on both graphs.
To me, these charts do two things.
1. It illustrates the point the discipline people have been making, in a general sense although I don't think anyone disagrees in a general sense.
2. It shows that there are exceptions and Rafaela is one of them.
I will bet that if you did those charts for historic major leaguers, the people in the upper right on both are superstars. Vlad Guerrero Sr. comes to mind.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 13, 2023 8:58:54 GMT -5
I am guessing that you can count on one hand the people that are in the upper right quadrant on both graphs. To me, these charts do two things. 1. It illustrates the point the discipline people have been making, in a general sense although I don't think anyone disagrees in a general sense. 2. It shows that there are exceptions and Rafaela is one of them. I will bet that if you did those charts for historic major leaguers, the people in the upper right on both are superstars. Vlad Guerrero Sr. comes to mind. Just for context, Guerrero’s career K-rate was 11% and his walk rate was 8%. That’s like 10% percent of plate appearances (likely more if Rafaela’s strikeouts tik up in the majors like most people) where Guerrero was giving himself a chance at a successful outcome (putting a ball in play) where Rafaela is guaranteeing failure (striking out.) The strikeouts alone are probably a .030 difference in OBP and a .040 difference in slug(guesstimating that 30% of those strikeouts would be hits if he put the ball in play), and the lack of walks is another .020 or .030 points of OBP Rafaela is losing compared to Guerrero. So we’re talking about an OPS .100 points lower than Vlad’s EVEN IF Rafaela manages to do as much damage when he does make contact - which is a huge ask of anyone. If that happens, he’s a stud. But the margin for error is razor thin - if the strikeouts jump another 6% or the quality of contact declines even a bit, he’s just not going to be a very good hitter.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 13, 2023 9:09:18 GMT -5
To be clear, I never said I expect Guerrero like production. He's an example of a type, a type that can make solid contact on pretty much everything. Someone that's likely in the upper right quadrant of both graphs. Hell, I remember him hitting a mammoth HR when they were trying to IBB him. If you took Guerrero's offence and Rafaela's defense you'd have Trout plus.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 13, 2023 9:09:25 GMT -5
There is a healthy dose of irony in using a graph to attempt to illustrate Rafaela as an offensive outlier when said graph has Bobby Dalbec, who teams have shown they don’t believe able to consistently hit at the MLB level, is an even bigger outlier. Rafaela is obviously a better prospect than Dalbec is/was, but he’s also definitely not in the “exception” tier.
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