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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 13, 2023 9:52:01 GMT -5
Those stats make me more concerned for Rafaela and also confused. 390/398 in o-zone chase rate? Really weak max exit velos and 95th percentile velos. These are really bad signs but also I don’t even know how he’s putting up the lines he is with those numbers.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 13, 2023 10:41:51 GMT -5
You don't see 400+ foot HRs, you see solid contact when he makes contact. He sprays line drives all over the field and some go out. He's not a threat to move the red seat and doesn't have Duran's physical strength, for example. Neither did Pedroia.
ADD: Think about what would have to happen to be
34th barrels/batted ball 38th hard hit rate and yet 226th 95th percentile exit velo
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 13, 2023 11:09:26 GMT -5
Anecdotal but...
When I watch a game, I also have a gameday tab open for when I want to see details. A few days ago I saw a hard hit groundout to second which I wondered how he got to. Gameday showed an almost in the dirt sinker that he hit at 102 MPH. Who the hell hits an in the dirt sinker 102 MPH ?
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Post by adamgregory81 on Aug 13, 2023 11:47:19 GMT -5
I am guessing that you can count on one hand the people that are in the upper right quadrant on both graphs. To me, these charts do two things. 1. It illustrates the point the discipline people have been making, in a general sense although I don't think anyone disagrees in a general sense. 2. It shows that there are exceptions and Rafaela is one of them. I will bet that if you did those charts for historic major leaguers, the people in the upper right on both are superstars. Vlad Guerrero Sr. comes to mind. Just for context, Guerrero’s career K-rate was 11% and his walk rate was 8%. That’s like 10% percent of plate appearances (likely more if Rafaela’s strikeouts tik up in the majors like most people) where Guerrero was giving himself a chance at a successful outcome (putting a ball in play) where Rafaela is guaranteeing failure (striking out.) The strikeouts alone are probably a .030 difference in OBP and a .040 difference in slug(guesstimating that 30% of those strikeouts would be hits if he put the ball in play), and the lack of walks is another .020 or .030 points of OBP Rafaela is losing compared to Guerrero. So we’re talking about an OPS .100 points lower than Vlad’s EVEN IF Rafaela manages to do as much damage when he does make contact - which is a huge ask of anyone. If that happens, he’s a stud. But the margin for error is razor thin - if the strikeouts jump another 6% or the quality of contact declines even a bit, he’s just not going to be a very good hitter. If the range is somewhere between “not very good hitter” and “Vlad Jr.” is it even worth discussing? Feels to me like you could know nothing about player development (you could be a 10 year old that collects baseball cards” and project that range. Further, isn’t a player that has an OPS that is (consistently) 100 points lower than Vlad, combined with GG defense in CF and/or short an occasional MVP candidate? I understood that the original poster was not trying to compare Ceddane to Vlad Jr. - and it would be silly to, they have completely opposite player profiles. his actual point is the point that detractors on this thread are completely missing, because hitting isn’t a one-size fits all skill, players are successful in a multitude of ways, and outliers do exist outside of the typical metrics you’d hope to see in a prospect. Let’s try your last sentence another way: “But the margin or error is massive - if the strikeouts sink another 6% and the quality of contact increases even a bit, he’s not just going to be a very good player, he’s going to be a superstar.” Maybe this statement is more absurd because k% is more likely to increase than decrease as you go up a level, and quality contact is more difficult to make against MLB pitching, but I think it’s absurd to ignore the likelihood of improvement in a player that has improved at every step. (And/or ignore that he’s a little guy that will get stronger and stronger every year for the next decade.) So how about we try your last sentence a third way - “Ceddane’s continued success will depend on whether he can continue to make quality contact as opposing pitching improves, if that quality of contact slips, even a bit, he will need to improve his k% to avoid being a liability at the plate.”
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Post by evanstonredsox on Aug 13, 2023 12:15:01 GMT -5
I built this tool today that estimates OPS based on BB%, K%, BABIP and extra base hits. It's by no means an exact science but I think it gives a good rough estimate of where a player's OPS could end up I really just wanted to play around with Ceddanne's numbers and see what he could realistically produce if he maintains these BB and K rates. His realistic OPS isn't that high if his BB rate stays under 5%, maybe like low 700s at best ops-generator.glitch.me/
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 13, 2023 13:06:12 GMT -5
There is a healthy dose of irony in using a graph to attempt to illustrate Rafaela as an offensive outlier when said graph has Bobby Dalbec, who teams have shown they don’t believe able to consistently hit at the MLB level, is an even bigger outlier. Rafaela is obviously a better prospect than Dalbec is/was, but he’s also definitely not in the “exception” tier. Dalbec isn’t really anything like Rafaela. He has massive natural power, fairly normal plate discipline, but struggles to make contact. Rafaela is extremely aggressive but also has strong bat-to-ball ability. Besides, Dalbec would be starting in the majors if he played elite CF defense.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 13, 2023 13:11:34 GMT -5
I built this tool today that estimates OPS based on BB%, K%, BABIP and extra base hits. It's by no means an exact science but I think it gives a good rough estimate of where a player's OPS could end up I really just wanted to play around with Ceddanne's numbers and see what he could realistically produce if he maintains these BB and K rates. His realistic OPS isn't that high if his BB rate stays under 5%, maybe like low 700s at best ops-generator.glitch.me/What’s wrong with a low 700s OPS? Agree on that assessment, but it makes him a starting player and fully worthy of a top 100 list. I also think it is likely he can improve on that with experience. Most players don’t max out their skills at 22.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 13, 2023 13:19:49 GMT -5
There is a healthy dose of irony in using a graph to attempt to illustrate Rafaela as an offensive outlier when said graph has Bobby Dalbec, who teams have shown they don’t believe able to consistently hit at the MLB level, is an even bigger outlier. Rafaela is obviously a better prospect than Dalbec is/was, but he’s also definitely not in the “exception” tier. Dalbec isn’t really anything like Rafaela. He has massive natural power, fairly normal plate discipline, but struggles to make contact. Rafaela is extremely aggressive but also has strong bat-to-ball ability. Besides, Dalbec would be starting in the majors if he played elite CF defense. Yes I understand that Dalbec and Rafaela are different thank you, I think you may have missed my point.
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Post by e on Aug 13, 2023 13:44:37 GMT -5
I built this tool today that estimates OPS based on BB%, K%, BABIP and extra base hits. It's by no means an exact science but I think it gives a good rough estimate of where a player's OPS could end up I really just wanted to play around with Ceddanne's numbers and see what he could realistically produce if he maintains these BB and K rates. His realistic OPS isn't that high if his BB rate stays under 5%, maybe like low 700s at best ops-generator.glitch.me/What’s wrong with a low 700s OPS? Agree on that assessment, but it makes him a starting player and fully worthy of a top 100 list. I also think it is likely he can improve on that with experience. Most players don’t max out their skills at 22. I think this is where the disconnect is between everyone on Rafaela. Nobody thinks a low 700s OPS is bad for him. We all agree that with his defense it makes him a legit starting centerfielder, and maybe an all star. When people bring up the chase rate and lack of walks, it's not to say he won't be a great, valuable player. It's just meant to temper expectations of him being a great hitter(which he very well could be).
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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 13, 2023 13:49:15 GMT -5
Just for context, Guerrero’s career K-rate was 11% and his walk rate was 8%. That’s like 10% percent of plate appearances (likely more if Rafaela’s strikeouts tik up in the majors like most people) where Guerrero was giving himself a chance at a successful outcome (putting a ball in play) where Rafaela is guaranteeing failure (striking out.) The strikeouts alone are probably a .030 difference in OBP and a .040 difference in slug(guesstimating that 30% of those strikeouts would be hits if he put the ball in play), and the lack of walks is another .020 or .030 points of OBP Rafaela is losing compared to Guerrero. So we’re talking about an OPS .100 points lower than Vlad’s EVEN IF Rafaela manages to do as much damage when he does make contact - which is a huge ask of anyone. If that happens, he’s a stud. But the margin for error is razor thin - if the strikeouts jump another 6% or the quality of contact declines even a bit, he’s just not going to be a very good hitter. If the range is somewhere between “not very good hitter” and “Vlad Jr.” is it even worth discussing? Feels to me like you could know nothing about player development (you could be a 10 year old that collects baseball cards” and project that range. Further, isn’t a player that has an OPS that is (consistently) 100 points lower than Vlad, combined with GG defense in CF and/or short an occasional MVP candidate? I understood that the original poster was not trying to compare Ceddane to Vlad Jr. - and it would be silly to, they have completely opposite player profiles. his actual point is the point that detractors on this thread are completely missing, because hitting isn’t a one-size fits all skill, players are successful in a multitude of ways, and outliers do exist outside of the typical metrics you’d hope to see in a prospect. Let’s try your last sentence another way: “But the margin or error is massive - if the strikeouts sink another 6% and the quality of contact increases even a bit, he’s not just going to be a very good player, he’s going to be a superstar.” Maybe this statement is more absurd because k% is more likely to increase than decrease as you go up a level, and quality contact is more difficult to make against MLB pitching, but I think it’s absurd to ignore the likelihood of improvement in a player that has improved at every step. (And/or ignore that he’s a little guy that will get stronger and stronger every year for the next decade.) So how about we try your last sentence a third way - “Ceddane’s continued success will depend on whether he can continue to make quality contact as opposing pitching improves, if that quality of contact slips, even a bit, he will need to improve his k% to avoid being a liability at the plate.” Okay, we'll go point by point. 1. We're talking about Vlad Sr., not Jr.
2. The range is not "not a very good hitter" to Vlad. My point is that he has no chance of hitting like Vlad given his current approach. In fact, he will have to make HOF-quality contact just to be a slightly above average hitter unless he strikes out less or walks more. And while Phil says he wasn't trying to directly compare him to Guerrero, I don't really think that's fair. All these "I know he's not Mookie, but..." comments minimize the absolutely massive importance of plate discipline numbers. Mookie without plate discipline is way, way worse than Mookie. Vlad who strikes out a lot is way, way worse than Vlad. To the point where it's irresponsible to throw those names around at all, let alone use them as examples of why Rafaela will be a good Major Leaguer.
3. I'm not ignoring the possibility Rafaela can improve. I think it's nonsense that BA left him off their top 100 list. I am on record saying I believe this is a gifted individual with outlier skills who has a chance to turn himself into a star. But what I find incredibly frustrating is the argument that some here implicitly or explicitly make: that Rafaela does not actually need to improve to be a star, that looking at his plate discipline is a waste of time, that he will be able to strike out 25% of the time and walk 3% of the time and still manage to be an elite hitter (unlike pretty much everybody else ever) and if you don't recognize that then you should stick to spreadsheets and give up on baseball.
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Post by evanstonredsox on Aug 13, 2023 13:52:52 GMT -5
I built this tool today that estimates OPS based on BB%, K%, BABIP and extra base hits. It's by no means an exact science but I think it gives a good rough estimate of where a player's OPS could end up I really just wanted to play around with Ceddanne's numbers and see what he could realistically produce if he maintains these BB and K rates. His realistic OPS isn't that high if his BB rate stays under 5%, maybe like low 700s at best ops-generator.glitch.me/What’s wrong with a low 700s OPS? Agree on that assessment, but it makes him a starting player and fully worthy of a top 100 list. I also think it is likely he can improve on that with experience. Most players don’t max out their skills at 22. Nothing wrong with it, think that would be a great outcome for him. My perspective on it is that this helps visualize how his ceiling at the plate is capped by his swing decisions. He’s never going to have superstar potential if he can’t sort this out, despite what he’s doing in AAA, which is what Ian and Chris have been saying for years
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 13, 2023 14:02:21 GMT -5
Kevin Kiermaier has a career .718 ops with q 7% BB rate and 22% K rate and a .158 iso averaging about 3.3 bWAR with a .310 BABIP. If that's the central projection for Rafaela it's huge win not even counting that he can play average to above SS when needed. And, as mentioned above, he may well not be done developing yet. BTW, Kiermaier debuted in MLB at age 23 (1 game)
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 13, 2023 19:57:49 GMT -5
Kiermaier is a career 34.7 bWAR player.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 13, 2023 20:09:34 GMT -5
Kevin Kiermaier has a career .718 ops with q 7% BB rate and 22% K rate and a .158 iso averaging about 3.3 bWAR with a .310 BABIP. If that's the central projection for Rafaela it's huge win not even counting that he can play average to above SS when needed. And, as mentioned above, he may well not be done developing yet. BTW, Kiermaier debuted in MLB at age 23 (1 game) But have we been a little quick to say "no worries if he's Kiermaier on defense"? That's probably true, but Kiermaier is at +77 OAA since 2016 and +147 DRS for his career. Rafaela could be elite defensively and still not match those numbers. Also Kiermaier has a (surprisingly high?) 98 wRC+ for his career, which is certainly higher than Rafaela's floor.
Things still have to go somewhat better than expected for Rafaela to have a Kiermaierian career.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 14, 2023 7:29:02 GMT -5
incandenza I don't think anyone, even the most ardent fan like me, thinks Kiermaier is the floor which is why I posted that as his CENTRAL projection which given his already known defense is not such a stretch. His D has been on display for some time now and we have heard assessments from coaches and rehabbing MLBers who back up those reports so, yes he might not reach them, but he might also exceed them. As for the bat, we can be pretty sure he won't be Willie Mays, but he could well be Jimmy Piersall (93 OPS+) or Paul Blair (96 OPS+) either of which is an excellent outcome. And if his outlier approach works in the Majors then he's an all star. Or he could be JBJ without the white hot streaks which is not so great but still very useful especially given his ability to backup SS.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 14, 2023 8:18:20 GMT -5
Not sure I buy Kiermaier as Rafaela’s 50th percentile projection. He has better BB and K numbers early in the majors than Rafaela did in the minors, he has a 32% chase rate to Rafaela’s 40%, and a 98 wRC+ which to me would be a great outcome if Rafaela can do it but I don’t think it’s the most likely. Can’t speak on the defense that just seems too hard to know for sure until he’s up and we get some numbers.
Also, if the general prospect community thought his most likely outcome was Kiermaier he’d be regarded more highly I think.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 14, 2023 8:50:17 GMT -5
Everything I said in my earlier post aside... If you guys are all fairly on target, and Rafaela's realistic outcome is that of a Kevin Kiermaier (or maybe 10%-20% better) in terms of career stat line.. don't you think the Red Sox should trade him as SOON as possible?
No disrespect to Kevin Kiermaier, he's put together a very solid career for himself. That being said, do I want the center fielder of the Red Sox future to be a .250/.310/.404 hitter, who pops 15 or so home runs a year? Absolutely not, even if he becomes a perennial Gold Glove candidate..
Hypothetically, if I had a crystal ball, and I knew that is what Rafaela's future held... I would be trading him this offseason at the peak of his value, hopefully as someone who could headline a package for a Logan Gilbert/Dylan Cease. Because Bloom's analysts are probably seeing something similar to what you guys are, right? I mean, the numbers are the numbers...
Then make a firm decision on whether or not to stay the course with Duran in CF, try to trade Verdugo (especially if he finishes the season strong), and go sign a premium outfielder (CF/RF) with 25+ HR, 80+ RBI, .840+ OPS potential. You have the belief that Roman Anthony is going to be ready (meaning impact level ready) in 3 years, and by then Yoshida is going to be your DH and close to the end of his contract.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 14, 2023 9:03:26 GMT -5
As others noted, I did a double take when I saw that Baseball American had DROPPED him from their top 100. Somehow he was good enough to make their list this spring but has disappointed them over the last few months?
The ZiPS 2024 projection has him with a 4.0% BB rate and 23.2% K rate, which they see as translating to a .258/.296/.442 line for a .310 wOBA? Obviously his OBP will be on the low side, and the batting average could initially be disappointing (poor swing decisions), but he makes up for some of that with his line-drive power and speed.
He isn't really an outlier, merely fringe. If you do a comprehensive search for guys with a 40%+ chase rate, you'll come up with a solid list, including names like Javier Baez and Luis Robert Jr. Or Tim Anderson. That style buys him success through his 20s, and a chance to perhaps improve on that if he wants a longer career. But a potential +20 career WAR, which is a huge win for pretty much any prospect. Right? And all he has to do is raise his current game one more level -- none of that is projecting improved discipline.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 14, 2023 9:12:37 GMT -5
If Anthony is impact-ready in 2026, then bring up Rafaela for 2024-2025 and trade him then? You'll get more value after he has established in the majors. Only reason to trade him immediately is if you believe he is highly valued now and will fall flat at the next level. Since he isn't even on the BA top 100 list, I'm skeptical that other GMs will be falling over themselves to overpay.
I want him in CF because the quickest way to improve the defense is to put Rafaela in CF, Duran in LF, and Yoshida at DH. The Red Sox have more "easy gains" defensively than they do on offense or with the pitching.
How many plus defensive outfielders have an .840+ OPS? Maybe half a dozen? Are any of those available in free agency this year? I was hoping they would go after Brandon Nimmo last year, but he is a notch short of that level.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 14, 2023 9:20:20 GMT -5
There are 9 outfielders who qualify for the batting title with an OPS over .840: Acuna, Betts, Bellinger, Soto, Tucker, Robert, Carroll, Adolis Garcia, and Yelich. Expanding to 300 PA min., you add 6: Yordan, Chas Mccormick, Trout, Luke Raley, Riley Greene, Christopher Morel.
Dunno how many of those guys I'd call plus defenders at this point.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 14, 2023 9:29:09 GMT -5
I am completely prepared to think Rafaela could flame out at the plate with the result being perhaps one of the best defense super utility player in the history of the game with a Mendoza line bat. However, I would point out that people were ready to dump Duran and now, after 4 hot months some want to anoint him as the CF anchor despite his defense being at best average and his speed being his main carrying tool as a soon to be 27 year old. As for Kiermaier, 3+ WAR players at premium positions are pretty valuable (@ $20mm/year in their prime on the free agent market I guess) and if he ends up as Kiermaier or Blair that's worth the risk versus what you can realistically get for a guy in AAA. Also note that despite his negative states in some areas, there is more than one way to get to the 90/95 OPS+ range particularly when we're talking about a 22 year old whose main problem is not lack of physical talent but a skill that can be improved.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 14, 2023 9:37:42 GMT -5
There are 9 outfielders who qualify for the batting title with an OPS over .840: Acuna, Betts, Bellinger, Soto, Tucker, Robert, Carroll, Adolis Garcia, and Yelich. Expanding to 300 PA min., you add 6: Yordan, Chas Mccormick, Trout, Luke Raley, Riley Greene, Christopher Morel. Dunno how many of those guys I'd call plus defenders at this point. Thanks Chris, so on your expanded list there are 15 out of 90 starting OF positions or 1 in 6 and Rafaela seems to be as good or better than any on defense PLUS he can play average or better SS which not even Mookie can do for more than a game or so. I really can remember a prospect with this much potential being so readily dismissed by so many on this site which is largely why his defenders get so pumped up. Did he shoot someone's dog that we don't know about?
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 14, 2023 9:42:06 GMT -5
There are 9 outfielders who qualify for the batting title with an OPS over .840: Acuna, Betts, Bellinger, Soto, Tucker, Robert, Carroll, Adolis Garcia, and Yelich. Expanding to 300 PA min., you add 6: Yordan, Chas Mccormick, Trout, Luke Raley, Riley Greene, Christopher Morel. Dunno how many of those guys I'd call plus defenders at this point. I knew when I typed in .840 OPS, that was going to be keyed in on lol. In terms of all those numbers, I viewed .840 as sort of a peak/ideal for the Sox to sign to play a premium outfield position (CF/RF).. Nimmo was definitely the main player crossing my mind, even though he's having a down year. And I certainly haven't gone through the list of guys that fit that bill that are free agents after this year, its probably 1-2 at most. Again, let it be known, I was just playing devil's advocate for those who think Rafaela is Kevin Kiermaier 2.0. I'm a big time Rafaela guy, and I believe he is going to be a ~20 HR, ~70 RBI, ~.820 OPS hitter down the road. I don't want the Red Sox to trade him for any reason.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 14, 2023 9:44:01 GMT -5
If Anthony is impact-ready in 2026, then bring up Rafaela for 2024-2025 and trade him then? You'll get more value after he has established in the majors. Only reason to trade him immediately is if you believe he is highly valued now and will fall flat at the next level. Since he isn't even on the BA top 100 list, I'm skeptical that other GMs will be falling over themselves to overpay. I want him in CF because the quickest way to improve the defense is to put Rafaela in CF, Duran in LF, and Yoshida at DH. The Red Sox have more "easy gains" defensively than they do on offense or with the pitching. How many plus defensive outfielders have an .840+ OPS? Maybe half a dozen? Are any of those available in free agency this year? I was hoping they would go after Brandon Nimmo last year, but he is a notch short of that level. I trust/respect Baseball America more than most prospect evaluating publications, but I do believe their stance on Rafaela is one of their most ridiculous of any player. It is almost certain that this ridiculous offensive outburst in Worcester is not sustainable. That being said, MLB.com (who I'm not the biggest fan of) has him back at #78, Keith Law had him at #48 on July 21st (before the run got really crazy), and FanGraphs has him at #34 (kind of ridiculous).... It's just a feeling, as I am no talent evaluator or scout, but my guess is that a lot of MLB organizations view him somewhere in between and more closely to the number from MLB.com (#70-#80).
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 14, 2023 9:44:02 GMT -5
Just another quick thing to note on Kiermaier, something that has dragged his value down has been health, he's missed a lot of time. Per 150 games he's a 3.8 WAR guy. For the first four seasons of his career he was at 4.7/150.
So two things - 1) Saying Kiermaier's career would be a better than expected outcome isn't deriding Rafaela, Kiermaier has had an awesome career, and Rafaela could have a great one even if he doesn't reach that level. 2) If the Red Sox think Rafaela is going to be a Kiermaier-level-talent they ain't trading him.
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