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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 14, 2023 9:44:08 GMT -5
I think the problem may stem from your thinking of him as "perhaps one of the best defense super utility player in the history of the game." That's kind of crazy. He's a very good defender. One of the best they've had since I've done this. He is not a historically good defender. At least, I'd never say that about any guy before he got to MLB.
Also I think people play up the utility aspect a bit too much. That's extremely useful (see, e.g., the Red Sox a month ago - would've been nice if one of the OF could've slid over to SS, right?) but it's not like he can play both positions at once. Put another way, I'm not sure I'd think terribly much less of him if he just played CF. It'd be less, but I'm not sure he'd slide in my rankings, for example.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 14, 2023 9:47:13 GMT -5
There are 9 outfielders who qualify for the batting title with an OPS over .840: Acuna, Betts, Bellinger, Soto, Tucker, Robert, Carroll, Adolis Garcia, and Yelich. Expanding to 300 PA min., you add 6: Yordan, Chas Mccormick, Trout, Luke Raley, Riley Greene, Christopher Morel. Dunno how many of those guys I'd call plus defenders at this point. Thanks Chris, so on your expanded list there are 15 out of 90 starting OF positions or 1 in 6 and Rafaela seems to be as good or better than any on defense PLUS he can play average or better SS which not even Mookie can do for more than a game or so. I really can remember a prospect with this much potential being so readily dismissed by so many on this site which is largely why his defenders get so pumped up. Did he shoot someone's dog that we don't know about? I can't speak for everyone here and I certainly could be wrong in my assumptions, but I generally think people value defense-first players less because of the aesthetics of fielding vs. batting. Not saying that's right or wrong, it's a preference thing, but that's something I would say anecdotally tracks. You can use JBJ as a pretty good example of this, he was a very valuable player for the Red Sox despite people wanting to get rid of him at first opportunity for years. So I think some of that dismissiveness may just be from people who put more value on the bat and are skeptical that the results he's achieving in AAA are sustainable, for reasons that have been discussed ad nauseam. Now if you are talking about that general skepticism in the bat being the "readily dismissed" component of this, I would say again that's making an issue that doesn't exist appear out of nowhere. I don't think many people are going out of their way to trash Rafaela's chances at being a valuable major leaguer, but when you have guys (or, rather, one overly exuberant guy) going around invoking names like Vlad Guerrero or Dustin Pedroia when talking about Rafaela, I don't think offering a reality check is the same as being dismissive. I'll also readily acknowledge that I fall into the camp of defense-first players not being my preference. I can appreciate their contributions and was not one of those who incessantly complained about JBJ (at least not that I remember), but if I had my choice between 2018 JBJ (3.4 fWAR) or 2023 Jarren Duran (currently 2.6, should finish in the low to mid 3's) to man center field, I'd choose Duran every time. Again, I don't think that's me being dismissive of Rafaela as long as I can acknowledge his objective value, but maybe some people don't straddle that line as delicately.
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Aug 14, 2023 9:54:59 GMT -5
Duran is roughly average defensively in CF, doesn't have a good arm, and while he walks a LITTLE more than Rafaela, he also strikes out more often. Nor is it clear to me that Duran has any more power. They are somewhat similar players. Note that Duran's carrying card is his .384 BABIP and his xwOBA is just .321. There is likely a degree of luck in his performance. I like both, though. There are 82 OFs with 350+ PA this year, just 52 with a .320 wOBA. Plenty of teams don't have three outfielders at that level, let alone three with speed on the basepaths and above-average range defensively. My guess is that both will end up being above-average starters over the next 5 years.
Note also that Duran's chase rate was pushing 40% when he first came up in 2021, but he has brought it down 4.5 points. Possible that Rafaela might do the same, and at that point he would be off the fringe.
You could reasonably argue that putting Duran in Fenway's LF is a waste defensively, but Yoshida isn't the answer for sure.
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Aug 14, 2023 10:02:22 GMT -5
Not that much difference between #34 and #48. His limitations keep him out of the top 20, but his solid performance at AAA in my opinion demands a top-50 ranking. Beyond that it is all speculation as to how his game will translate to the majors. Am sure if you catch him on a bad day that #78 might look eminently reasonable. Many players put up ridiculous numbers in AAA, you have to figure that the BB rate comes down a bit, the K rate rises (maybe 2%-5%), the BABIP suffers from superior defense, and the HR rate falls dramatically as ML pitchers rarely feed hitters meatballs. But decent evidence from the last two seasons to support a .200 ISO, which plays in the upper 700s if he can manage a .260 BA.
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 14, 2023 10:08:55 GMT -5
Duran is roughly average defensively in CF, doesn't have a good arm, and while he walks a LITTLE more than Rafaela, he also strikes out more often. Nor is it clear to me that Duran has any more power. They are somewhat similar players. Note that Duran's carrying card is his .384 BABIP and his xwOBA is just .321. There is likely a degree of luck in his performance. I like both, though. There are 82 OFs with 350+ PA this year, just 52 with a .320 wOBA. Plenty of teams don't have three outfielders at that level, let alone three with speed on the basepaths and above-average range defensively. My guess is that both will end up being above-average starters over the next 5 years. Note also that Duran's chase rate was pushing 40% when he first came up in 2021, but he has brought it down 4.5 points. Possible that Rafaela might do the same, and at that point he would be off the fringe. You could reasonably argue that putting Duran in Fenway's LF is a waste defensively, but Yoshida isn't the answer for sure. I don't wanna go too OT here, but Duran is not an average defensive CF. He is tied for the least OAA of any centerfielder with at least 500 innings there this year. He's an average outfielder but most teams put a really good outfielder in center.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Aug 14, 2023 10:20:09 GMT -5
If Rafaela was one year older (in life and development) he would have likely been perfect for this team this year.
Providing depth, utility, defense, and speed, and hopefully making SOME progress with the bat at the MLB level. Still, Sox might overall of been better off with that guy on this team this year.
Future Ceddanne that is.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 14, 2023 10:32:05 GMT -5
Duran is roughly average defensively in CF, doesn't have a good arm, and while he walks a LITTLE more than Rafaela, he also strikes out more often. Nor is it clear to me that Duran has any more power. They are somewhat similar players. Note that Duran's carrying card is his .384 BABIP and his xwOBA is just .321. There is likely a degree of luck in his performance. I like both, though. There are 82 OFs with 350+ PA this year, just 52 with a .320 wOBA. Plenty of teams don't have three outfielders at that level, let alone three with speed on the basepaths and above-average range defensively. My guess is that both will end up being above-average starters over the next 5 years. Note also that Duran's chase rate was pushing 40% when he first came up in 2021, but he has brought it down 4.5 points. Possible that Rafaela might do the same, and at that point he would be off the fringe. You could reasonably argue that putting Duran in Fenway's LF is a waste defensively, but Yoshida isn't the answer for sure. I don't wanna go too OT here, but Duran is not an average defensive CF. He is tied for the least OAA of any centerfielder with at least 500 innings there this year. He's an average outfielder but most teams put a really good outfielder in center. Similarly, I don't want to stray too far off topic, but I think the situation with Duran is important in terms of Rafaela's future role on the club (i.e. RF or CF).... Now that Duran seems to be past the mental hurdles surrounding his ability to hit in the MLB, he and the Sox organization will be directing a majority of their energy this offseason into his CF defense. I believe he clearly has the pure athleticism/range that it will take to play the position long-term. Now it's a matter of finding out whether or not he can significantly improve in all of the other areas necessary to be a solid CF. I do not believe the likely outcome is that Duran remains in CF long-term, and he will eventually move to LF. But at the same time I think it will be very interesting to see what he looks like come spring training now that he can devote more energy to the defensive aspect of his game in the offseason. I think we will know one way or the other come early next year, and then it's time to make the decision based on what the numbers say in the first few months of 2024.
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 14, 2023 11:58:48 GMT -5
Thanks Chris, so on your expanded list there are 15 out of 90 starting OF positions or 1 in 6 and Rafaela seems to be as good or better than any on defense PLUS he can play average or better SS which not even Mookie can do for more than a game or so. I really can remember a prospect with this much potential being so readily dismissed by so many on this site which is largely why his defenders get so pumped up. Did he shoot someone's dog that we don't know about? I can't speak for everyone here and I certainly could be wrong in my assumptions, but I generally think people value defense-first players less because of the aesthetics of fielding vs. batting. Not saying that's right or wrong, it's a preference thing, but that's something I would say anecdotally tracks. You can use JBJ as a pretty good example of this, he was a very valuable player for the Red Sox despite people wanting to get rid of him at first opportunity for years. So I think some of that dismissiveness may just be from people who put more value on the bat and are skeptical that the results he's achieving in AAA are sustainable, for reasons that have been discussed ad nauseam. Now if you are talking about that general skepticism in the bat being the "readily dismissed" component of this, I would say again that's making an issue that doesn't exist appear out of nowhere. I don't think many people are going out of their way to trash Rafaela's chances at being a valuable major leaguer, but when you have guys (or, rather, one overly exuberant guy) going around invoking names like Vlad Guerrero or Dustin Pedroia when talking about Rafaela, I don't think offering a reality check is the same as being dismissive. I'll also readily acknowledge that I fall into the camp of defense-first players not being my preference. I can appreciate their contributions and was not one of those who incessantly complained about JBJ (at least not that I remember), but if I had my choice between 2018 JBJ (3.4 fWAR) or 2023 Jarren Duran (currently 2.6, should finish in the low to mid 3's) to man center field, I'd choose Duran every time. Again, I don't think that's me being dismissive of Rafaela as long as I can acknowledge his objective value, but maybe some people don't straddle that line as delicately. I am a defense first guy. That being said you have got to put the ball in play and cannot be striking out all the time. I wanted JBJ from college and was happy the Sox got him but he didn't make as much contact as I thought he would have and should have made. I have never seen Rafaela play so I have no idea at what level of defense he is in center. I have read articles comparing him to Keirmaier on defense if that is correct that is great. Kind of unlikely though as Keirmaier is in the Paul Blair, Andrew Jones class of defenders.
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Post by adamgregory81 on Aug 14, 2023 12:09:49 GMT -5
Also I think people play up the utility aspect a bit too much. That's extremely useful (see, e.g., the Red Sox a month ago - would've been nice if one of the OF could've slid over to SS, right?) but it's not like he can play both positions at once. Put another way, I'm not sure I'd think terribly much less of him if he just played CF. It'd be less, but I'm not sure he'd slide in my rankings, for example. This is a really interesting thought - do you think the trouble is quantifying the value of playing multiple positions? I take your point that he can only play one position at a time, and maybe the issue is that WAR doesn’t take into account the value a player permits his teammates to contribute; but arguably it should in the super utility case. That is, if having Ceddane on your roster permits you to carry (a) one less position player, (b) one additional arm, or (c) a legitimate second side of a platoon somewhere; in each case, Ceddane isn’t necessarily playing two positions, but his value to the team is (in theory) his WAR, plus the incremental WAR from the extra guy. You would know better than me, but it feels like the incremental WAR could very well be non-de minimis. (if it’s something like .5-1-5 wins a year, wouldn’t that make a very material change in a player’s expected value?) As I’m writing this out, this feels like the type of magic that the Rays have mastered, while (much of) the rest of the league is catching up. Anyway, not poking to say your wrong, I just think it is a very interesting thing to think about… what is the actual value of utility?
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 14, 2023 12:14:02 GMT -5
Also I think people play up the utility aspect a bit too much. That's extremely useful (see, e.g., the Red Sox a month ago - would've been nice if one of the OF could've slid over to SS, right?) but it's not like he can play both positions at once. Put another way, I'm not sure I'd think terribly much less of him if he just played CF. It'd be less, but I'm not sure he'd slide in my rankings, for example. This is a really interesting thought - do you think the trouble is quantifying the value of playing multiple positions? I take your point that he can only play one position at a time, and maybe the issue is that WAR doesn’t take into account the value a player permits his teammates to contribute; but arguably it should in the super utility case. That is, if having Ceddane on your roster permits you to carry (a) one less position player, (b) one additional arm, or (c) a legitimate second side of a platoon somewhere; in each case, Ceddane isn’t necessarily playing two positions, but his value to the team is (in theory) his WAR, plus the incremental WAR from the extra guy. You would know better than me, but it feels like the incremental WAR could very well be non-de minimis. (if it’s something like .5-1-5 wins a year, wouldn’t that make a very material change in a player’s expected value?) As I’m writing this out, this feels like the type of magic that the Rays have mastered, while (much of) the rest of the league is catching up. Anyway, not poking to say your wrong, I just think it is a very interesting thing to think about… what is the actual value of utility? I’m not really sure you accomplish point a (and therefore point b) with Rafaela’s situation. In my opinion that is true of super utility guys who can play a ton of positions but don’t play one consistently, but since Rafaela is going to most likely play center an overwhelming majority of the time I’m not sure you would use his shortstop versatility in roster planning. Especially since you’ll likely need a backup second baseman who will likely have shortstop utility as well. I suppose it’s possible but not likely in my mind.
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Post by taiwansox on Aug 14, 2023 12:29:40 GMT -5
For Rafaela, I’d argue that it’s just too early to know. He’s 22 in Triple-A with under 2000 professional PAs. He’s getting reps looking at breaking balls, off-speed, high velo and has shown good hand-eye. Part of it is just learning and recognizing patterns, which comes with experience. Reddick had a 5% walk rate as a 23 year old in Triple-A with a much lower ISO.
Totally agree the plate approach is a problem, but it’s also potentially due to lack of experience which we’ll only know once we see his stats normalize after 500 PAs at Triple-A or see him struggle in the majors
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2023 13:02:17 GMT -5
I built this tool today that estimates OPS based on BB%, K%, BABIP and extra base hits. It's by no means an exact science but I think it gives a good rough estimate of where a player's OPS could end up I really just wanted to play around with Ceddanne's numbers and see what he could realistically produce if he maintains these BB and K rates. His realistic OPS isn't that high if his BB rate stays under 5%, maybe like low 700s at best ops-generator.glitch.me/Clay Davenport, the original stats guy for Baseball Prospectus, has spent his career doing what you just did on a virtual envelope back. No criticism at all of your attempt -- I do the same sort of thing all the time! Just pointing out there's a really detailed model based on the same idea.
And here are the results of his Peak Projections. Last number is EqA, which is essentially wOBA but expressed as a BA equivalent rather than OBP, with .260 defined as average.
.235 .287 .352 = .224 -- 2019 in GCL. Slash line does not include his 12 PA for Lowell, EgA does. COVID .246 .283 .408 = .241 -- 2021 in low-A .282 .314 .505 = .276 -- 2022 in high-A .271 .302 .455 = .259 -- 2022 in AA .279 .303 .410 = .253 -- 2023 in AA .281 .311 .536 = .271 -- 2023 in AAA
The combined EqA's for the last two years are .266 and .260. But he was .276 in high-A and is now putting up .271 in AAA.
His 600-PA HR projection from his AAA line is 33; based on the whole year, 22.
Basically, this is a RHB version of Kevin Kiermaier (career OBP .310) but with 25 HR instead of 12. That's a pretty tasty projection.
EDIT: Oh yes, a KK who can also play the middle infield when needed.
(It's worth noting that the Davenport Translations are tough on guys with poor strike zone command. E.g., he had Will Middlebrooks correctly when everyone else saw him as a star.)
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 14, 2023 13:14:44 GMT -5
Basically, this[Rafaela] is a RHB version of Kevin Kiermaier (career OBP .310) but with 25 HR instead of 12. That's a pretty tasty projection.
EDIT: Oh yes, a KK who can also play the middle infield when needed.
(It's worth noting that the Davenport Translations are tough on guys with poor strike zone command. E.g., he had Will Middlebrooks correctly when everyone else saw him as a star.)
Wow, what odds can I get for taking the under on Rafaela hitting 25 home runs anytime through age 26?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 14, 2023 13:28:36 GMT -5
Basically, this[Rafaela] is a RHB version of Kevin Kiermaier (career OBP .310) but with 25 HR instead of 12. That's a pretty tasty projection.
EDIT: Oh yes, a KK who can also play the middle infield when needed.
(It's worth noting that the Davenport Translations are tough on guys with poor strike zone command. E.g., he had Will Middlebrooks correctly when everyone else saw him as a star.)
Wow, what odds can I get for taking the under on Rafaela hitting 25 home runs anytime through age 26? What part of Peak Projection did you not understand?
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Aug 14, 2023 13:31:27 GMT -5
I don't wanna go too OT here, but Duran is not an average defensive CF. He is tied for the least OAA of any centerfielder with at least 500 innings there this year. He's an average outfielder but most teams put a really good outfielder in center.
Good catch, and all the more reason to put Rafaela there. Duran likely won't get significantly better than he is now, and it is tough to carry below average defense at multiple positions.
That said, there are plenty of weaker defenders running around in CF, they just aren't getting 500 innings at the position. The overall position average appears to be +2.6 OAA per 500 innings, vs. Duran at +0.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2023 14:15:31 GMT -5
Here's an amazing stat. Ceddanne Rafaela apparently hasn't had a strikeout looking since 2019 in Low A: www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?player=678882. That's at least 1,381 PAs and 281 swinging strikeouts ago. That's preposterous to me. Anyone with a Stathead account and more time than me want to take a look and see if that's some sort of record?
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Aug 14, 2023 14:19:59 GMT -5
What I've learned from this thread today is that Kiermaier is incredibly underrated.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 14, 2023 14:21:06 GMT -5
Also I think people play up the utility aspect a bit too much. That's extremely useful (see, e.g., the Red Sox a month ago - would've been nice if one of the OF could've slid over to SS, right?) but it's not like he can play both positions at once. Put another way, I'm not sure I'd think terribly much less of him if he just played CF. It'd be less, but I'm not sure he'd slide in my rankings, for example. This is a really interesting thought - do you think the trouble is quantifying the value of playing multiple positions? I take your point that he can only play one position at a time, and maybe the issue is that WAR doesn’t take into account the value a player permits his teammates to contribute; but arguably it should in the super utility case. That is, if having Ceddane on your roster permits you to carry (a) one less position player, (b) one additional arm, or (c) a legitimate second side of a platoon somewhere; in each case, Ceddane isn’t necessarily playing two positions, but his value to the team is (in theory) his WAR, plus the incremental WAR from the extra guy. You would know better than me, but it feels like the incremental WAR could very well be non-de minimis. (if it’s something like .5-1-5 wins a year, wouldn’t that make a very material change in a player’s expected value?) As I’m writing this out, this feels like the type of magic that the Rays have mastered, while (much of) the rest of the league is catching up. Anyway, not poking to say your wrong, I just think it is a very interesting thing to think about… what is the actual value of utility? Point is well taken. Defensive versatility isn't a de minimis value trait, but I just think in Rafaela's case some people overvalue it a little. I think it's primarily because he's so good in CF that he's going to get as much time there as possible. His utility value comes into play IF: 1. the team is able to carry a different bench player because he can back up SS (they're not going to carry an extra pitcher), and 2. the roster is constructed to take advantage of that (in other words, the 4th OF is better than the hypothetical backup shortstop would be). Again, the situation recently in which being able to move one of the four OF to second would've been ideal to get the 4 OF and 3 CIF into the same lineup. It's different than Ohtani, who literally does 2 jobs for 1 roster spot. Rafaela's versatility allows you to use the other spots differently, but doesn't give you an extra roster spot. That has value! It's not zero or even near zero. But I don't think it's "moves him a dozen spots higher on a top 100" value. I think the value of versatility is more important for a marginal player. Mauricio Dubon for example. Pablo Reyes. If Rafaela winds up only being a 300-PA guy, it'll be more important then than if he's an everyday guy, imo, because his best role will be as The Starting CF, if that makes sense?
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Post by crossedsabres8 on Aug 14, 2023 14:21:36 GMT -5
Here's an amazing stat. Ceddanne Rafaela apparently hasn't had a strikeout looking since 2019 in Low A: www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?player=678882. That's at least 1,381 PAs and 281 swinging strikeouts ago. That's preposterous to me. Anyone with a Stathead account and more time than me want to take a look and see if that's some sort of record? I've been assuming that data just isn't populated because on every player I've looked up it has had a 0 for strikeouts looking.
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Post by jmei on Aug 14, 2023 14:23:52 GMT -5
Here's an amazing stat. Ceddanne Rafaela apparently hasn't had a strikeout looking since 2019 in Low A: www.soxprospects.com/stats/batter.php?player=678882. That's at least 1,381 PAs and 281 swinging strikeouts ago. That's preposterous to me. Anyone with a Stathead account and more time than me want to take a look and see if that's some sort of record? I've been assuming that data just isn't populated because on every player I've looked up it has had a 0 for strikeouts looking. Oh that would be a bummer. Seemed too good to be true…
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 14, 2023 14:25:18 GMT -5
God I cannot wait to stop seeing "Kevin Kiermaier," "5% walk rate," "o-zone chase rate" included in every post about Rafaela (realizing I mentioned him multiple times, regretting it now) Rafaela may not end up doing what I expect him to when he reaches the major leagues, but after watching most of his at bats for the past month or so... I would be willing to put every dollar I have on him having better offensive numbers than Kevin Kiermaier in his career, in every major statistical category. Anyone want in on that?
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radiohix
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'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
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Post by radiohix on Aug 14, 2023 14:30:24 GMT -5
I’ll reiterate what I’ve said before: I really care more about him keeping an acceptable K%, which he’s doing, than limiting his chase rate. Since 2021, Rafaela amassed 1381 PA across 4 levels and he struck out 281 times..that’s a 20.3% which is acceptable for a hitter with his skill set, more importantly he hovered around that while being young for the levels he was facing: 2022: 19.8% K Rate in AA in his age 21 season 2023: 20.7% K Rate in AA in his age 22 season 2023: 21.1% K Rate in AAA in his age 22 season Usually the strikeout percentages goes up when young hitters jump to higher levels considering they face pitchers with better stuff and pitchability but it doesn’t seem the case for CR as he kept his numbers steady. Look, he’ll never post a double digit BB% and his OBP will be powered by his Batting Average, the more balls he puts in play, the better his chances of getting on base are. Of course, you’d like him to work counts and get himself into hitters counts where pitchers come to him so he can get balls he can drive, but this is not ESSENTIAL for him to thrive at the major league level because: A- He’s an outstanding “bad ball hitter”, here’s an example vs the baby MFY where he hit that thing 99.4 mph for a 370 ft line drive dinger! Do you really care if he chased that thing? B- He’s fast and twitchy so weak grounders don’t mean outs in his case, he’ll beat a bunch of them. Here’s 2 examples from Saturday’s game where he swung at horrible pitchs and still got the base knocks. As I said above, it’s the strikeouts that he needs to continue at keeping under control and he’ll be fine.
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Post by christianarroyossock on Aug 14, 2023 14:35:00 GMT -5
I've been assuming that data just isn't populated because on every player I've looked up it has had a 0 for strikeouts looking. Oh that would be a bummer. Seemed too good to be true… yeah I saw him strikeout looking live in Binghamton this year
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 14, 2023 14:36:45 GMT -5
A- He’s an outstanding “bad ball hitter”, here’s an example vs the baby MFY where he hit that thing 99.4 mph for a 370 ft line drive dinger! Do you really care if he chased that thing? This is the argument that I find myself most often pushing back on with Rafaela because yes, I absolutely care if he chases that. It's very neat that he HAS hit a home run off of that pitch, and it's nice to know that he CAN do it, but I care about what the likely outcome is when chasing a pitch like that and realistically, how often do you expect a chase like that to end up as a home run? I think there needs to be a better separation of "ability" vs. "probability", because no one here will doubt that Rafaela has the ability to barrel bad pitches from time to time, it's just that "from time to time" is an extremely loaded statement here because it is very unlikely that the rate at which he barrels bad pitches in the majors is enough to allow him to tap into his offensive potential. I would absolutely love for him to be an outlier and for me to be wrong, but I will go with the odds here.
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radiohix
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Post by radiohix on Aug 14, 2023 14:51:09 GMT -5
A- He’s an outstanding “bad ball hitter”, here’s an example vs the baby MFY where he hit that thing 99.4 mph for a 370 ft line drive dinger! Do you really care if he chased that thing? This is the argument that I find myself most often pushing back on with Rafaela because yes, I absolutely care if he chases that. It's very neat that he HAS hit a home run off of that pitch, and it's nice to know that he CAN do it, but I care about what the likely outcome is when chasing a pitch like that and realistically, how often do you expect a chase like that to end up as a home run? I think there needs to be a better separation of "ability" vs. "probability", because no one here will doubt that Rafaela has the ability to barrel bad pitches from time to time, it's just that "from time to time" is an extremely loaded statement here because it is very unlikely that the rate at which he barrels bad pitches in the majors is enough to allow him to tap into his offensive potential. I would absolutely love for him to be an outlier and for me to be wrong, but I will go with the odds here. It seems to me like you didn’t get the point I was trying to make.
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