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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
cdj
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Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on Aug 14, 2023 14:56:54 GMT -5
What I've learned from this thread today is that Kiermaier is incredibly underrated. Which is wild because all he did for years was kill the Sox
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 14, 2023 14:58:32 GMT -5
This is the argument that I find myself most often pushing back on with Rafaela because yes, I absolutely care if he chases that. It's very neat that he HAS hit a home run off of that pitch, and it's nice to know that he CAN do it, but I care about what the likely outcome is when chasing a pitch like that and realistically, how often do you expect a chase like that to end up as a home run? I think there needs to be a better separation of "ability" vs. "probability", because no one here will doubt that Rafaela has the ability to barrel bad pitches from time to time, it's just that "from time to time" is an extremely loaded statement here because it is very unlikely that the rate at which he barrels bad pitches in the majors is enough to allow him to tap into his offensive potential. I would absolutely love for him to be an outlier and for me to be wrong, but I will go with the odds here. It seems to me like you didn’t get the point I was trying to make. Did I? You asked a pretty explicit question and I answered it. I see that you’re focused on the strikeouts but I don’t agree with the last statement that as long as he doesn’t strike out a lot he’ll be fine, all I did was isolate a particular example of why I think an example you gave was not correct.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 14, 2023 15:16:14 GMT -5
What I've learned from this thread today is that Kiermaier is incredibly underrated. Which is wild because all he did for years was kill the Sox Right? I feel like he was for the years ~2015-2020 with the Rays what Tellez and now Melendez/Raleigh are becoming against the Sox. But he absolutely buried them in games that actually meant a lot. And you just knew it was coming... That's a big part of the reason I want to stop reading his name hahah
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cdj
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Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on Aug 14, 2023 15:18:56 GMT -5
Which is wild because all he did for years was kill the Sox Right? I feel like he was for the years ~2015-2020 with the Rays what Tellez and now Melendez/Raleigh are becoming against the Sox. But he absolutely buried them in games that actually meant a lot. And you just knew it was coming... That's a big part of the reason I want to stop reading his name hahah I had my hopes up on so many gap shots and he would smash them as if they were nothing
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 14, 2023 15:30:52 GMT -5
Wow, what odds can I get for taking the under on Rafaela hitting 25 home runs anytime through age 26? What part of Peak Projection did you not understand? Sorry, my mistake, I missed that. I was going by your summary "Basically, this is a RHB version of Kevin Kiermaier (career OBP .310) but with 25 HR instead of 12. That's a pretty tasty projection," and not realizing what the antecedents were of "this" and "that."
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 14, 2023 18:23:54 GMT -5
This is a really interesting thought - do you think the trouble is quantifying the value of playing multiple positions? I take your point that he can only play one position at a time, and maybe the issue is that WAR doesn’t take into account the value a player permits his teammates to contribute; but arguably it should in the super utility case. That is, if having Ceddane on your roster permits you to carry (a) one less position player, (b) one additional arm, or (c) a legitimate second side of a platoon somewhere; in each case, Ceddane isn’t necessarily playing two positions, but his value to the team is (in theory) his WAR, plus the incremental WAR from the extra guy. You would know better than me, but it feels like the incremental WAR could very well be non-de minimis. (if it’s something like .5-1-5 wins a year, wouldn’t that make a very material change in a player’s expected value?) As I’m writing this out, this feels like the type of magic that the Rays have mastered, while (much of) the rest of the league is catching up. Anyway, not poking to say your wrong, I just think it is a very interesting thing to think about… what is the actual value of utility? Point is well taken. Defensive versatility isn't a de minimis value trait, but I just think in Rafaela's case some people overvalue it a little. I think it's primarily because he's so good in CF that he's going to get as much time there as possible. His utility value comes into play IF: 1. the team is able to carry a different bench player because he can back up SS (they're not going to carry an extra pitcher), and 2. the roster is constructed to take advantage of that (in other words, the 4th OF is better than the hypothetical backup shortstop would be). Again, the situation recently in which being able to move one of the four OF to second would've been ideal to get the 4 OF and 3 CIF into the same lineup. It's different than Ohtani, who literally does 2 jobs for 1 roster spot. Rafaela's versatility allows you to use the other spots differently, but doesn't give you an extra roster spot. That has value! It's not zero or even near zero. But I don't think it's "moves him a dozen spots higher on a top 100" value. I think the value of versatility is more important for a marginal player. Mauricio Dubon for example. Pablo Reyes. If Rafaela winds up only being a 300-PA guy, it'll be more important then than if he's an everyday guy, imo, because his best role will be as The Starting CF, if that makes sense? Rafaela's versatility also opens up a whole host of possibilities. Here's a not too far fetched example. If hypothetically Yorke was ready before Mayer (likely) then the fact that Yorke only plays 2B isn't as big a hinderance with Rafaela on the team. The open spot could go to a multiple position bat like Hickey or Scott which, in turn, frees up the maager to freely PH for the catcher. Ian Browne's email today brought up the possibility of Rafaela to cover 2B in October (September ?) if that area hasn't been solved. Methinks Rafaela at SS and Story at 2B seems more likely. I've been of the general feeling that Rafaela won't be the 27th man but I assume Browne got that possibility from someplace since he's the Red Sox MLB beat writer. Ceddanne Rafaela, OF/SS (No. 3) The Red Sox are still unsettled at second base and Rafaela has enough athleticism to provide quality defense, even playing a position at which he doesn't have much experience. Signed for just $10,000 out of Curacao in 2017, he's batting .305/.347/.524 with 18 homers and 34 steals in 96 games between Double-A and Triple-A. If the Red Sox make it to the postseason, it’s easy to envision Rafaela being added to the roster as a plus defender/pinch runner.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Aug 14, 2023 21:49:01 GMT -5
I’m watching Tovar over in Colorado and I think Rafaela could have an incredibly similar bat. To me that may be his closest comp
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Post by jmei on Aug 15, 2023 9:10:51 GMT -5
I still think there's a deep underappreciation for defensive value even among the SABR literate folks. Tristan Casas has had a nice rookie season, with a .251/.354/.482 (124 wRC+) line. But, because of his mediocre defense at the second-lowest position on the defensive spectrum (plus bad baserunning), that's only worth roughly 1.5 fWAR (prorated for 600 PAs). Compare that to someone like Michael Taylor, who, despite a career .239/.293/.385 (81 wRC+) line, is at 1.9 fWAR per 600 PAs over his career due to his defensive value and has put up a solid 10 year (and counting) MLB career.
Even if Rafaela is an objectively bad hitter, he's going to have a long and productive major league career based on his defense alone. Guys like that don't get the love that they deserve but can be key pieces of a good team, especially during their cost-controlled years. Another guy in that vein is Manny Margot, who lots of folks dismiss as a guy that didn't amount to much but has become an important part of the Rays' recent success.
That's all if Rafaela is a bad hitter, by the way. If he's a league-average hitter, he's a no-doubt above-average starter a la Kiermaier. If he's an above-average hitter, he's a perennial all-star a la Luis Robert.
I'd have him #2 in the system and a top 50 prospect in MLB.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Aug 15, 2023 10:57:21 GMT -5
It's really rare to have a player so skilled at the two most important field positions in the sport. I think you're correct, that the projections have no way to account for that.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 15, 2023 11:44:11 GMT -5
I've decided that what I need to psychologically prepare myself for is for Rafaela to basically be Christian Arroyo on offense. Which wouldn't be *bad* if his defense is as great as advertised, but I am expecting some frustrating ABs.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Aug 15, 2023 12:09:31 GMT -5
I've decided that what I need to psychologically prepare myself for is for Rafaela to basically be Christian Arroyo on offense. Which wouldn't be *bad* if his defense is as great as advertised, but I am expecting some frustrating ABs. Christian Arroyo bat along with elite defense and game changing speed in CF. Sign me up. I really hope he is the 14th position player in September, but I also could see a case for Hamilton so Cedanne can continue getting regular AB's through the end of the AAA season.
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tedf
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Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 15, 2023 12:11:08 GMT -5
No question that his chase rate is limiting. If he had the plate discipline of Mookie Betts it might be hard to tell them apart? But the chase rate boosts strikeouts and reduces the opportunities for hard contact, in addition to eliminating walks.
I don’t see reason to penalize him twice for that, though. His numbers already reflect that chase rate. The only question at this point is how well the line/style translates to the majors. We know that low average patient sluggers are often challenged by that last step. Do high chase guys face them same uphill battle?
He is not really an outlier, there are probably dozens of examples over the last decade. I just have limited access to chase rates in the minors and end up using BB/K rates as an imperfect proxy.
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cdj
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Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on Aug 15, 2023 12:15:27 GMT -5
I’m telling y’all, he’s gonna be like Tovar at the dish. Tovar has a 40% chase rate but he’s a good hitter. The OPS isn’t going to impress initially because it’s BA dependent but seeing Tovar last night reminded me a ton of what I’ve seen from Rafaela so far. Tovar will go with the pitch and impact the ball to the opposite field, he was also able to crush a mistake out to left and get a hustle double on a line drive to shallow left center
And then from that point we will see how Ceddanne develops- if he maintains that he’s still very valuable, if he improves on it he’s a possible allstar imo
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 15, 2023 12:18:28 GMT -5
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 15, 2023 12:23:17 GMT -5
I like the Tovar comp, but he did manage an 8% BB rate in AA. My guess is that Rafaela needs to take one more modest step forward to match Tovar.
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Post by christianarroyossock on Aug 15, 2023 12:30:46 GMT -5
The thing about cedanne is that he is not trying to walk at all. If I remember correctly, when I saw him in Binghamton and Syracuse this year, each time he got to a 3-0 count and swung. I think he ended up with a double and a single on those two at bats which is objectively better than 2 walks, which weren’t even guaranteed. So, if his strategy is working, there’s no point in nitpicking the exact BB%, especially in a small sample size in AAA.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 15, 2023 12:36:51 GMT -5
I've decided that what I need to psychologically prepare myself for is for Rafaela to basically be Christian Arroyo on offense. Which wouldn't be *bad* if his defense is as great as advertised, but I am expecting some frustrating ABs. ^^^^ (one of the biggest eye rolls of my life)
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 15, 2023 12:56:51 GMT -5
I've seen the Betts comparison before and just want to add an important difference is that Mookie also has above average Max EVs (and early in his career was in the top 5% in baseball), Rafaela is in the bottom 10th percentile in Max EV in AAA.
Also, generally, saying "if he had Mookie's chase rate" is sort of a funny exercise because if you took any decent prospect and said "well if their biggest flaw were instead their greatest strength" a lot of guys would look like superstars.
Tovar I like as a comp but he also has 50th percentile Max EVs, seems to barrel it less than Rafaela (at least in the Majors vs. Rafaela in the minors) though.
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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 15, 2023 13:10:59 GMT -5
I've decided that what I need to psychologically prepare myself for is for Rafaela to basically be Christian Arroyo on offense. Which wouldn't be *bad* if his defense is as great as advertised, but I am expecting some frustrating ABs. ^^^^ (one of the biggest eye rolls of my life) You are setting yourself up for massive disappointment if you don't think there is a strong possibility Rafaela hits like Arroyo.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 15, 2023 13:11:11 GMT -5
I’m telling y’all, he’s gonna be like Tovar at the dish. Tovar has a 40% chase rate but he’s a good hitter. The OPS isn’t going to impress initially because it’s BA dependent but seeing Tovar last night reminded me a ton of what I’ve seen from Rafaela so far. Tovar will go with the pitch and impact the ball to the opposite field, he was also able to crush a mistake out to left and get a hustle double on a line drive to shallow left center And then from that point we will see how Ceddanne develops- if he maintains that he’s still very valuable, if he improves on it he’s a possible allstar imo He has a career wRC+ of 77. What am I missing?
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 15, 2023 13:16:05 GMT -5
incandenza.. can I ask you a question? How many of Rafaela's at-bats have you watched since he was promoted to AAA?
Also, just so I have a reference point moving forward.. did you ever play baseball at any point in life?
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Post by manfred on Aug 15, 2023 13:30:03 GMT -5
I've seen the Betts comparison before and just want to add an important difference is that Mookie also has above average Max EVs (and early in his career was in the top 5% in baseball), Rafaela is in the bottom 10th percentile in Max EV in AAA. Also, generally, saying "if he had Mookie's chase rate" is sort of a funny exercise because if you took any decent prospect and said "well if their biggest flaw were instead their greatest strength" a lot of guys would look like superstars. Tovar I like as a comp but he also has 50th percentile Max EVs, seems to barrel it less than Rafaela (at least in the Majors vs. Rafaela in the minors) though. Or, put differently, it is probably best not to measure anyone against a Mookie skill-set. Best to pick non-HOF.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 15, 2023 13:36:29 GMT -5
Also, just so I have a reference point moving forward.. did you ever play baseball at any point in life? That doesn't matter and consider this a formal warning. You've been very dismissive of legitimate differences of opinion and it ends now, k?
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Post by julyanmorley on Aug 15, 2023 13:43:38 GMT -5
I've seen the Betts comparison before and just want to add an important difference is that Mookie also has above average Max EVs (and early in his career was in the top 5% in baseball), Rafaela is in the bottom 10th percentile in Max EV in AAA. Also, generally, saying "if he had Mookie's chase rate" is sort of a funny exercise because if you took any decent prospect and said "well if their biggest flaw were instead their greatest strength" a lot of guys would look like superstars. There is a lot of meat on the bone of the comparison. If you measured them in an NFL combine type setting I think they'd be very similar. The outfield and infield defense is similar. The baserunning is hopefully similar, but we'll have to wait and see just how good Rafaela's instincts are. Their swings are even superficially similar.
Ultimately, I don't think it's super meaningful or anything. Mookie is an inner circle hall of famer and Rafaela is not a lock to even be an everyday player.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 15, 2023 13:56:05 GMT -5
Also, generally, saying "if he had Mookie's chase rate" is sort of a funny exercise because if you took any decent prospect and said "well if their biggest flaw were instead their greatest strength" a lot of guys would look like superstars.
That's pretty much my point. Most players have a mix of strengths and weaknesses. You have to try to look at the whole, not take any piece in isolation. But projection systems are reasonably effective because that pattern of strengths and weaknesses are ALREADY reflected in the stat line by the time they reach AA/AAA. The majors are substantially tougher, but they are not qualitatively that different. So a player who is killing it in the minors stands a decent chance of putting together a major league career.
It frustrates me to see people focusing on the chase rate in isolation, ignoring his above-average ability to put the bat on the ball for solid contact. The interplay between the factors is sometimes counter-intuitive. Rafaela and Dalbec have the same SwStr% this year in AAA, yet Dalbec has 50% more strikeouts. Because Dalbec is a (much) more selective hitter, he sees 4.2 Pit/PA vs. 3.6 for Rafaela. The longer plate appearances translate to more counts reaching three strikes. (This doesn't mean Dalbec needs to be more aggressive, since his contact rate would likely go down if he were to swing more. Merely an observation that these statistics are the intersection of multiple factors.)
To me, the most important factor in batting success is the ability to put the bat on the ball with authority. Contact rate is a piece of that, but it doesn't capture the quality of the contact. (Devers, Casas, and Hernandez all have a 75% contact rate with the Red Sox this year. Reese McGuire has an 80% contact rate.) Arroyo is a reasonable comp for Rafaela in some ways, a similar chase rate and unexceptional contact rates (both in and out of the strike zone). If Rafaela has a 4.6% barrel rate and 32% hard-hit rate in the majors, then he can expect a .275 wOBA like Arroyo had this year. If he can manage a 6.7% barrel rate and 40% hard-hit rate, like Arroyo in 2021-2022 or Turner this year, then a .320 wOBA is in play. It is encouraging to hear that he is showing an above-average barrel rate in the minors right now, though it remains to be seen how well that translates.
FWIW, Benintendi has a 2.8% barrel rate and 25% hard-hit rate this year (much like he did with Boston in 2020). Strong plate discipline isn't enough to make that look good.
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