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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 15, 2023 13:56:45 GMT -5
Or, put differently, it is probably best not to measure anyone against a Mookie skill-set. Best to pick non-HOF.
You completely whiffed on the point...
Plate discipline is a huge factor in success, not just in the ability to generate walks but also reducing K% and improving quality of contact. All else equal, a hitter who improves his plate discipline SHOULD see BB% improve, K% improve, and BABIP improve. As well as generating more home runs on well-struck balls. Ask Ted Williams about the role of selectivity in hitting!
Saying that plate discipline is the largest factor that separates Betts and Rafaela isn't saying that the latter has any hope of becoming the former. The two are so obviously miles apart that I would think it can be tacitly assumed? But plate discipline is also not the only element of success. Betts isn't a great hitter JUST because of his plate discipline, but because of the way that supports his other talents. And Rafaela has at least part of those other talents (hard to tell how much in the absence of plate discipline).
We know that there are some ML hitters who are successful despite plate discipline that approximates Rafaela's. We know that there are some who are not successful. We can point to some (like Arroyo) who were successful for a couple years and then fell apart. The interesting question isn't whether or not his plate discipline is poor but whether or not he has enough other ability to find success at the major league level. If he can manage a .310 wOBA he is an every day starting player in this league. If he sticks at .275, then he is a bench player at best. In Arroyo's career we see some of each.
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Post by manfred on Aug 15, 2023 14:04:45 GMT -5
Or, put differently, it is probably best not to measure anyone against a Mookie skill-set. Best to pick non-HOF.
You completely whiffed on the point...
Because I don’t have Mookie’s eye/hand coordination?
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 15, 2023 14:09:49 GMT -5
Because I don’t have Mookie’s eye/hand coordination? More likely that I didn't explain myself thoroughly.
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Post by incandenza on Aug 15, 2023 14:10:28 GMT -5
Also, generally, saying "if he had Mookie's chase rate" is sort of a funny exercise because if you took any decent prospect and said "well if their biggest flaw were instead their greatest strength" a lot of guys would look like superstars.
That's pretty much my point. Most players have a mix of strengths and weaknesses. You have to try to look at the whole, not take any piece in isolation. But projection systems are reasonably effective because that pattern of strengths and weaknesses are ALREADY reflected in the stat line by the time they reach AA/AAA. The majors are substantially tougher, but they are not qualitatively that different. So a player who is killing it in the minors stands a decent chance of putting together a major league career.
It frustrates me to see people focusing on the chase rate in isolation, ignoring his above-average ability to put the bat on the ball for solid contact. The interplay between the factors is sometimes counter-intuitive. Rafaela and Dalbec have the same SwStr% this year in AAA, yet Dalbec has 50% more strikeouts. Because Dalbec is a (much) more selective hitter, he sees 4.2 Pit/PA vs. 3.6 for Rafaela. The longer plate appearances translate to more counts reaching three strikes. (This doesn't mean Dalbec needs to be more aggressive, since his contact rate would likely go down if he were to swing more. Merely an observation that these statistics are the intersection of multiple factors.)
To me, the most important factor in batting success is the ability to put the bat on the ball with authority. Contact rate is a piece of that, but it doesn't capture the quality of the contact. (Devers, Casas, and Hernandez all have a 75% contact rate with the Red Sox this year. Reese McGuire has an 80% contact rate.) Arroyo is a reasonable comp for Rafaela in some ways, a similar chase rate and unexceptional contact rates (both in and out of the strike zone). If Rafaela has a 4.6% barrel rate and 32% hard-hit rate in the majors, then he can expect a .275 wOBA like Arroyo had this year. If he can manage a 6.7% barrel rate and 40% hard-hit rate, like Arroyo in 2021-2022 or Turner this year, then a .320 wOBA is in play. It is encouraging to hear that he is showing an above-average barrel rate in the minors right now, though it remains to be seen how well that translates.
FWIW, Benintendi has a 2.8% barrel rate and 25% hard-hit rate this year (much like he did with Boston in 2020). Strong plate discipline isn't enough to make that look good.
Well this is a point where I am legitimately sort of confused about him. The scouting report and podcast discussion always hit on the point that he has such good bat-to-ball skills that he gets a ton of weak contact because he's able to connect with the ball even when it's off the plate where he can't drive it. And then he does have these low EV numbers. But how to square that with a .338 ISO in AAA? And why was the leap from AA to AAA no problem for him at all; shouldn't the better pitching start to exploit his approach?
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cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,665
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Post by cdj on Aug 15, 2023 14:21:06 GMT -5
I’m telling y’all, he’s gonna be like Tovar at the dish. Tovar has a 40% chase rate but he’s a good hitter. The OPS isn’t going to impress initially because it’s BA dependent but seeing Tovar last night reminded me a ton of what I’ve seen from Rafaela so far. Tovar will go with the pitch and impact the ball to the opposite field, he was also able to crush a mistake out to left and get a hustle double on a line drive to shallow left center And then from that point we will see how Ceddanne develops- if he maintains that he’s still very valuable, if he improves on it he’s a possible allstar imo He has a career wRC+ of 77. What am I missing? He just turned 22 and is .260/.294/.434 as a glove first SS. He has 43 xbh this year. Really good situationally too. If we can get that out of beginning career Rafaela I would be very happy Tovar’s OPS may never get over .800 because he swings at everything but he does impact the ball, he’s not out there slapping the ball around for singles
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 15, 2023 14:23:20 GMT -5
Also, just so I have a reference point moving forward.. did you ever play baseball at any point in life? That doesn't matter and consider this a formal warning. You've been very dismissive of legitimate differences of opinion and it ends now, k? Understood.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 15, 2023 14:27:43 GMT -5
incandenza I totally agree on that confusion! Like most of us amateurs, I don't have access to detailed stats on minor-leaguers. The "Standard" stat line is worse than useless. But if you look at his batted ball data, the quality of contact appeared to fall precipitously in 2022 when he reached AA. His LD% fell from 28% to 17%, his BABIP fell from .409 to .310. Those are large declines! His BB and K rates actually improved slightly, but from the weak results I think we can surmise that there was a lot of "weak contact" mixed in? And of course the pre-season scouting reports and rankings reflected those 2022 performances. This year at AA his LD% rebounded to 21% and the BABIP rebounded to .351. My guess is that he had already more or less addressed that issue by the time he was promoted? The gap between AA and AAA is generally smaller than the gap between A+ and AA, or between AAA and the majors, so I'm seeing this as "more of the same". The major change between AA and AAA this year is the frequency with which he is cranking home runs, a rate that is surely not sustainable. If we turn half of those home runs into "loud outs", bringing it down from 29% HR/FB to a more humanly possible 15%, he would be left with a .284/.336/.500 line? Minor league numbers, not major league numbers, but that's probably not far off his "true ability" at this time.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 15, 2023 14:32:43 GMT -5
.275/.315 with 16-22 HRs doesn’t seem too unrealistic at various seasons for Rafaela. I would take that with elite / near elite defense
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Post by incandenza on Aug 15, 2023 14:37:03 GMT -5
incandenza I totally agree on that confusion! Like most of us amateurs, I don't have access to detailed stats on minor-leaguers. The "Standard" stat line is worse than useless. But if you look at his batted ball data, the quality of contact appeared to fall precipitously in 2022 when he reached AA. His LD% fell from 28% to 17%, his BABIP fell from .409 to .310. Those are large declines! His BB and K rates actually improved slightly, but from the weak results I think we can surmise that there was a lot of "weak contact" mixed in? And of course the pre-season scouting reports and rankings reflected those 2022 performances. This year at AA his LD% rebounded to 21% and the BABIP rebounded to .351. My guess is that he had already more or less addressed that issue by the time he was promoted? The gap between AA and AAA is generally smaller than the gap between A+ and AA, or between AAA and the majors, so I'm seeing this as "more of the same". The major change between AA and AAA this year is the frequency with which he is cranking home runs, a rate that is surely not sustainable. If we turn half of those home runs into "loud outs", bringing it down from 29% HR/FB to a more humanly possible 15%, he would be left with a .284/.336/.500 line? Minor league numbers, not major league numbers, but that's probably not far off his "true ability" at this time. ...and what happened at the beginning of June? Because up to that point in AA he had a 106 wRC+. Then he just flipped a switch, had a 163 in 80 PAs, was promoted to AAA, and hasn't let up since. I wonder if that's the point at which the coaches were like, "you know what, Ceddanne, just do your thing" and he loosened up and just... did his think.
Which would still leave open the possibilities that either his "thing" won't work at MLB, or he's a unicorn.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 15, 2023 14:40:17 GMT -5
incandenza I totally agree on that confusion! Like most of us amateurs, I don't have access to detailed stats on minor-leaguers. The "Standard" stat line is worse than useless. But if you look at his batted ball data, the quality of contact appeared to fall precipitously in 2022 when he reached AA. His LD% fell from 28% to 17%, his BABIP fell from .409 to .310. Those are large declines! His BB and K rates actually improved slightly, but from the weak results I think we can surmise that there was a lot of "weak contact" mixed in? And of course the pre-season scouting reports and rankings reflected those 2022 performances. This year at AA his LD% rebounded to 21% and the BABIP rebounded to .351. My guess is that he had already more or less addressed that issue by the time he was promoted? The gap between AA and AAA is generally smaller than the gap between A+ and AA, or between AAA and the majors, so I'm seeing this as "more of the same". The major change between AA and AAA this year is the frequency with which he is cranking home runs, a rate that is surely not sustainable. If we turn half of those home runs into "loud outs", bringing it down from 29% HR/FB to a more humanly possible 15%, he would be left with a .284/.336/.500 line? Minor league numbers, not major league numbers, but that's probably not far off his "true ability" at this time. ...and what happened at the beginning of June? Because up to that point in AA he had a 106 wRC+. Then he just flipped a switch, had a 163 in 80 PAs, was promoted to AAA, and hasn't let up since. I wonder if that's the point at which the coaches were like, "you know what, Ceddanne, just do your thing" and he loosened up and just... did his think.
Which would still leave open the possibilities that either his "thing" won't work at MLB, or he's a unicorn. A unicorn, an outlier... some back in the day might have said he was "a natural" And yes, based on what I've read in articles and listened to via podcast, he really started going on the tear when the coaches told him to "just do his thing." He had an incredible year prior to this one, but all of the advanced metrics had everyone extremely worried, so the coaching staff harshly emphasized "plate discipline" to begin this year. That was when he was struggling the most, particularly as it related to his power numbers.. Some guys just love to tomahawk the ball, ya know? I certainly did.
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 15, 2023 14:45:23 GMT -5
Also possible that he finally figured out what the coaches were asking? Easy to see that something has changed, but much harder to pinpoint exactly what.
I'm guessing that he will have adjustments to make at the ML level. Tovar had a .261 wOBA in a cup of coffee last year, Tim Anderson took a few years before he really put it together (his rookie campaign was in part boosted by a lucky BABIP). I'm hoping he gets a taste of the majors this September, so he will have an idea of what to work on over the winter.
I'm finding a decent assortment of players with his batting profile, but they are mostly middle infielders. A little harder to put together a career like that as an outfielder, but if his defense is truly elite in CF then that can do it...
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Aug 15, 2023 15:27:53 GMT -5
In 2021 Rafaela played 61 games in the outfield, none recorded before that in his professional career so at this point he's played a bit over 2 season there and he's had rave reviews virtually since day one. I don't know how they work defensive states but I have a thought experiment that I think captures the idea of elite CF defense. The difference between a .250 and .300 hitter is 30 hits per 600 ABs or 1 hit every 5 games in 150 games played. Based on the MLB average this season that translates to 19 singles, 7 doubles/triples and 4 home runs. Now compare what an elite CF can do versus a league average one. Will he make one play every 5 games that the average CF would not make? Also it is fair to posit that most of those rare plays will be taking away extra base hits and/or holding a batter to a single instead of a double or triple. And there is additionally the "fear factor" of base runners having to wait a beat or two to see if that shot is really going to drop which combined with CD's above average arm (SP: "Plus arm, quick release...") means hitters/runners are at times one base further from scoring. So when I think about Ceddanne Rafaela I think about how much his defense supplements what MAY be a pedestrian batting line, I recognize that he may well be a bottom of the order bat (someone has to be after all) but note that he has the potential to improve to be MLB average (this season 248/320/413/733) and even be a tier or two above that. With the kind of defensive advantages cited above...sign me up all day.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,584
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Post by radiohix on Aug 15, 2023 16:37:19 GMT -5
I’ll add this: Not all chases are created equal and by that I mean, a pitch 2 balls off the strike zone and a pitch in the other batter box are all considered Balls and swinging at them is counted as a “chase”. I’m cool with Rafaela swinging at pitches in the vicinity of the strike zone, he’s skilled enough to produce damage with those, the problems start when he’s swinging at breaking balls that bounces in front of the plate or neck high fastballs. Here’s a few examples of pitches considered as “chase pitches” that he did damages with:
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tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
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Post by tedf on Aug 15, 2023 16:45:06 GMT -5
That's not terribly far off... Looking at 2021-2023 (2.5 seasons), with a 1000 inning minimum, the best CFs are +31 OAA/+28 RAA while the worst (happens to be Duran) is at -2 / -2. Hard to say exactly how good Rafaela will be, but the hope (at least my hope) is that he will grade out at +10 OAA per year. I.e. +1 WAR more than Duran, on defense alone. Since a good everyday player is around +2 WAR (86 players at +1.5 right now), that is a substantial gap.
Putting that in other terms, +1.0 WAR/season is roughly the offensive difference between Devers and Verdugo in 2023. Think about the impact of Devers' power bat, and it isn't an exaggeration to suggest that an elite CF's glove is THAT valuable.
Common opinion holds that the Red Sox offense is "good enough" to win, and taken in strict isolation that's true. Even with the holes in the middle infield, their wOBA ranks seventh in the majors this year. But their baserunning is below average and their defense is downright awful, so taken as a whole their position players rank #20. Plenty of room to upgrade that, mostly on defense.
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,018
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 15, 2023 22:59:06 GMT -5
What part of Peak Projection did you not understand? Sorry, my mistake, I missed that. I was going by your summary "Basically, this is a RHB version of Kevin Kiermaier (career OBP .310) but with 25 HR instead of 12. That's a pretty tasty projection," and not realizing what the antecedents were of "this" and "that." Yeah, the proper response is "sure hope Clay D. is right!" Of more properly, his algorithm.
But this got me thinking. Here's a same-age comp between Rafela 2023 and Will Middlebrooks, who did not fare well in Peak Projection. WM played that season largely in AA, 397 PA vs. 60 in AAA, where he struggled. Name PA HRC SO% BB% Mbrooks 457 .063 .247 .053 Rafaela 427 .058 .208 .052 AAA 161 .104 .211 .050 AA 266 .031 .207 .053
Identical walk rates. Homers per contact, very close. (And Rafaela in AAA is the same hitter as in AA except for a crazy boost on in HRC.)
Middlebooks strikes out 19% more often. That's going to hurt his projection, but is it really enough to turn a first-division starter projection to borderline starter?
I'm being a bit disingenuous here, because I left out two important numbers, for phony dramatic effect. Some time after my first post I recalled a conversation I had with Clay D. at a SABR conference, where he confirmed my suspicion that the following two numbers are part of the projection system.
6'3" 240 lbs 5' 9" 165 lbs
It makes perfect sense that, at a certain level of homer hitting (good but nor great), having the first body doesn't tell you that much about bat-to-ball skills; you're going yard because you're competent, and big and strong. Whereas nearly matching that number with the second body indicates a high percentage of barrelling, and hence very good bat-to-ball skills.
Note that this is not a statement about any one player. Rather, it seems to be a discovery (or verification of a suspicion) that this is the general case, a discovery made because Clay D. was smart enough to put body type into his data.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 16, 2023 16:14:33 GMT -5
Ceddanne Rafaela (8/16): 1-4 1 2B (EV: 92.7 mph, 2 pitches, 0 chases) 1 BB (6 pitches, 0 chases) 1 Line Out (333 ft/EV 97.9 mph, 6 pitches, 1 chase) 1 Fly Out (357 ft/EV 100.9 mph, 1 pitch, 0 chases) 1 Pop Out (6 pitches, 0 chases)
Chase Rate (4.8 %, on 21 pitches)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 16, 2023 17:40:50 GMT -5
Ceddanne Rafaela (8/16): 1-4 1 2B (EV: 92.7 mph, 2 pitches, 0 chases) 1 BB (6 pitches, 0 chases) 1 Line Out (333 ft/EV 97.9 mph, 6 pitches, 1 chase) 1 Fly Out (357 ft/EV 100.9 mph, 1 pitch, 0 chases) 1 Pop Out (6 pitches, 0 chases) Chase Rate (4.8 %, on 21 pitches) Also a .400 OBP - let's start the hall of fame campaign now!.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 17, 2023 15:16:45 GMT -5
Offensively CJ abrams this year doesn’t seem too far fetched as a baseline for what Rafaela can do at the MLB level
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 17, 2023 18:15:38 GMT -5
Offensively CJ abrams this year doesn’t seem too far fetched as a baseline for what Rafaela can do at the MLB level In terms of over impact I can see it. But they seem to be quite different in term of how they get there: - top~15 vs top~100 prospect - 6'2" vs 5'8" - lefty vs righty - contact vs (game) power - speed vs fielding
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 17, 2023 20:34:54 GMT -5
Ceddanne Rafaela (8/17): 1-3 , HR, BB, K
By At Bat 1st Inning- Fly Out (252 ft/EV 95.1mph, 5 pitches, 0 chases) 4th Inning- BB (5 pitches, 0 chases) 6th Inning- K (4 pitches 0 chases) 9th Inning - HR (380 ft/EV 99.5 mph, 3 pitches, 1 “chase” on the HR pitch, just above zone) to right center field.
Chase Rate (5.9 %, on 17 pitches)
WooSox Team: 1 Run 3 Hits 7 Strikeouts 3 Walks
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Post by adamgregory on Aug 17, 2023 22:32:06 GMT -5
I was thinking today, when I should have been working, there is a lot of comp seeking in this thread, with an obvious focus on guys that play elite defense; but can anyone find a comp of a defense first guy that was this good in the minors with the bat and then stalled out when he got to the show?
The CJ Abrams comp is what triggered it - CJ has never at any level been as good as Ceddanne has been and at AAA. (Of course, Abrams got to the show relatively quickly, so maybe not a fair comparison.)
I’m not trying to beat a dead bird here - but we are now over 150 at bats into his time at AAA and his OPS remains over 1. Go Ceddanne go.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 18, 2023 2:10:51 GMT -5
I was thinking today, when I should have been working, there is a lot of comp seeking in this thread, with an obvious focus on guys that play elite defense; but can anyone find a comp of a defense first guy that was this good in the minors with the bat and then stalled out when he got to the show? The CJ Abrams comp is what triggered it - CJ has never at any level been as good as Ceddanne has been and at AAA. (Of course, Abrams got to the show relatively quickly, so maybe not a fair comparison.) I’m not trying to beat a dead bird here - but we are now over 150 at bats into his time at AAA and his OPS remains over 1. Go Ceddanne go. I think Abrams (who wasn't close to Rafaela's level defensively in the minors) is an example of why you usually don't see it - most of those guys are pushed aggressively. Best recent example I can think of would be Austin Hedges - he was regarded extremely highly in the minors and had mostly lived up to the reputation. Although he struggled in AA, he hit .324/.392/.521 in 79 AAA PA as a 22yo and followed that up by hitting .326/.353/.597 in 334 PA as a 23yo. But he has just a 52 wRC+ (.188/.246/.322) in 2,194 PA in MLB. He has still managed to keep getting backup catching gigs due to the defense, so even falling flat on his face he's had a career of sorts. There was a recent OF (doesn't play close to Rafaela's defense) who hit .326/.369/.603 in 419 PA at AAA as a 22yo then went on to hit .300/.398/.533 (335 PA), .325/.397/.590 (136 PA) and .321/.427/.603 (220 PA) in AAA over the past 3 seasons; but he has only managed a .217/.283/.395 line in the majors despite numerous chances. Sometimes young talented players who crush it in AAA just can't translate it to the majors. Maybe Chaim will take another bite at the apple and bring Franchy back next year.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 18, 2023 6:55:21 GMT -5
I was thinking today, when I should have been working, there is a lot of comp seeking in this thread, with an obvious focus on guys that play elite defense; but can anyone find a comp of a defense first guy that was this good in the minors with the bat and then stalled out when he got to the show? The CJ Abrams comp is what triggered it - CJ has never at any level been as good as Ceddanne has been and at AAA. (Of course, Abrams got to the show relatively quickly, so maybe not a fair comparison.) I’m not trying to beat a dead bird here - but we are now over 150 at bats into his time at AAA and his OPS remains over 1. Go Ceddanne go. I think Abrams (who wasn't close to Rafaela's level defensively in the minors) is an example of why you usually don't see it - most of those guys are pushed aggressively. Best recent example I can think of would be Austin Hedges - he was regarded extremely highly in the minors and had mostly lived up to the reputation. Although he struggled in AA, he hit .324/.392/.521 in 79 AAA PA as a 22yo and followed that up by hitting .326/.353/.597 in 334 PA as a 23yo. But he has just a 52 wRC+ (.188/.246/.322) in 2,194 PA in MLB. He has still managed to keep getting backup catching gigs due to the defense, so even falling flat on his face he's had a career of sorts. There was a recent OF (doesn't play close to Rafaela's defense) who hit .326/.369/.603 in 419 PA at AAA as a 22yo then went on to hit .300/.398/.533 (335 PA), .325/.397/.590 (136 PA) and .321/.427/.603 (220 PA) in AAA over the past 3 seasons; but he has only managed a .217/.283/.395 line in the majors despite numerous chances. Sometimes young talented players who crush it in AAA just can't translate it to the majors. Maybe Chaim will take another bite at the apple and bring Franchy back next year. Hahah I just find it so difficult to grasp someone talking about Rafaela as though he’s a post-mortem example, comparing him to Austin Hedges and Franchy Cordero, when he has still not played a single game in the major leagues… Like, how much must one want to be right about one of our top prospects style/approach “not translating at the MLB level” to talk about him as though he’s already done, before he’s even begun? 🤣
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Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 18, 2023 7:53:35 GMT -5
I think Abrams (who wasn't close to Rafaela's level defensively in the minors) is an example of why you usually don't see it - most of those guys are pushed aggressively. Best recent example I can think of would be Austin Hedges - he was regarded extremely highly in the minors and had mostly lived up to the reputation. Although he struggled in AA, he hit .324/.392/.521 in 79 AAA PA as a 22yo and followed that up by hitting .326/.353/.597 in 334 PA as a 23yo. But he has just a 52 wRC+ (.188/.246/.322) in 2,194 PA in MLB. He has still managed to keep getting backup catching gigs due to the defense, so even falling flat on his face he's had a career of sorts. There was a recent OF (doesn't play close to Rafaela's defense) who hit .326/.369/.603 in 419 PA at AAA as a 22yo then went on to hit .300/.398/.533 (335 PA), .325/.397/.590 (136 PA) and .321/.427/.603 (220 PA) in AAA over the past 3 seasons; but he has only managed a .217/.283/.395 line in the majors despite numerous chances. Sometimes young talented players who crush it in AAA just can't translate it to the majors. Maybe Chaim will take another bite at the apple and bring Franchy back next year. Hahah I just find it so difficult to grasp someone talking about Rafaela as though he’s a post-mortem example, comparing him to Austin Hedges and Franchy Cordero, when he has still not played a single game in the major leagues… Like, how much must one want to be right about one of our top prospects style/approach “not translating at the MLB level” to talk about him as though he’s already done, before he’s even begun? 🤣 Poster 1: Do guys ever hit well in AAA and then hit poorly in the majors? Poster 2: It happens sometimes. Here are two examples. You: Poster 2 is a hater who wants Rafaela to fail. Do you not see how this is rubbing people the wrong way? EDIT: I genuinely appreciate the game-by-game updates on Rafaela you’ve posted the last few days because those posts are adding to the conversation, unlike these posts where you’re actively stifling analysis.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 18, 2023 8:31:49 GMT -5
Hahah I just find it so difficult to grasp someone talking about Rafaela as though he’s a post-mortem example, comparing him to Austin Hedges and Franchy Cordero, when he has still not played a single game in the major leagues… Like, how much must one want to be right about one of our top prospects style/approach “not translating at the MLB level” to talk about him as though he’s already done, before he’s even begun? 🤣 Poster 1: Do guys ever hit well in AAA and then hit poorly in the majors? Poster 2: It happens sometimes. Here are two examples. You: Poster 2 is a hater who wants Rafaela to fail. Do you not see how this is rubbing people the wrong way? EDIT: I genuinely appreciate the game-by-game updates on Rafaela you’ve posted the last few days because those posts are adding to the conversation, unlike these posts where you’re actively stifling analysis. I don't think that's close to a fair analysis regarding my post. I never called anyone a hater, including the previous poster. But I feel the comment made by the previous poster about trying to "bite the apple again with Franchy Cordero," is at a minimum a subtly negative dig at Rafaela. And I have seen plenty of other posts that were much more explicit in those digs. I happen to feel that there are a lot of people on this thread who are seeing the success that Rafaela is having, are struggling to reconcile that with their heavily data driven critiques of him in the past, and have gotten more openly negative because it doesn't make sense to them. I don't believe it is unfair of me to point that out. If you're rubbed the wrong way by me trying to be positive about a top prospect for the Red Sox that I would like to succeed, or now stating that I think there is legitimate evidence through past posts that certain people don't know how to wrap their heads around the success Rafaela is having and have made digs at him under the guise of "what the numbers say," then you're entitled to let me know. But I personally don't think it's cool of you to post in a manner where you try to paint yourself as the righteous person calling someone out for something they're not even doing (i.e. labeling others "haters"). I am rooting for the success of one of the Red Sox top prospects, and I am absolutely willing to admit that I am frustrated by what I have seen to the contrary from others.
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