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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 18, 2023 8:38:32 GMT -5
Poster 1: Do guys ever hit well in AAA and then hit poorly in the majors? Poster 2: It happens sometimes. Here are two examples. You: Poster 2 is a hater who wants Rafaela to fail. Do you not see how this is rubbing people the wrong way? EDIT: I genuinely appreciate the game-by-game updates on Rafaela you’ve posted the last few days because those posts are adding to the conversation, unlike these posts where you’re actively stifling analysis. I don't think that's close to a fair analysis regarding my post. I never called anyone a hater, including the previous poster. But I feel the comment made by the previous poster about trying to "bite the apple again with Franchy Cordero," is at a minimum a subtly negative dig at Rafaela. And I have seen plenty of other posts that were much more explicit in those digs. I happen to feel that there are a lot of people on this thread who are seeing the success that Rafaela is having, are struggling to reconcile that with their heavily data driven critiques of him in the past, and have gotten more openly negative because it doesn't make sense to them. I don't believe it is unfair of me to point that out. If you're rubbed the wrong way by me trying to be positive about a top prospect for the Red Sox that I would like to succeed, or now stating that I think there is legitimate evidence through past posts that certain people don't know how to wrap their heads around the success Rafaela is having and have made digs at him under the guise of "what the numbers say," then you're entitled to let me know. But I personally don't think it's cool of you to post in a manner where you try to paint yourself as the righteous person calling someone out for something they're not even doing (i.e. labeling others "haters"). I am rooting for the success of one of the Red Sox top prospects, and I am absolutely willing to admit that I am frustrated by what I have seen to the contrary from others. No one is rubbed the wrong way about you being positive about a Red Sox prospect, it’s this constant cycle of condescension, receiving a warning for said condescension, apologizing, and then starting right back up being condescending again. If you approached the discussion with any sort of legitimate reasoning or analysis then it would be received much differently but in your very short stint on this board so far there’s been none of that. I'll add to this a bit because I still think the conversation around Rafaela gets misconstrued. If you interpret skepticism about the degree to which his bat will play at the MLB level as a "dig", that says way more about you and your sensitivities to dissenting opinions than it does about the statements being made about Rafaela's bat. It's perfectly fair to express those concerns when there is legitimate reason to expect it's not entirely sustainable (the reason that people like citing data is because, more often than not, data wins) while also acknowledging that A) he's extremely talented and will be able to make more out of his flaws than most players would and B) even if the bat isn't great, he's still going to be an extremely valuable player. This is very much different than a conversation around, say, Bobby Dalbec, where people are actually debating if he's a major leaguer caliber player or not. This is "Is Rafaela a quality starting center fielder or is he an All-Star?", and again if you think that's overly negative, that's a you problem! Nobody here is looking at Rafaela and thinking he's a bad player, but there are plenty of reasons to believe that he's not *this*. And if you don't want to take random internet poster's word for it, if you think I'm just digging into my priors or being biased, you can try to reconcile the fact that Chris and Ian basically said the same thing on the most recent podcast. Not that they're the supreme authority on these things, but I trust their expertise much more than any poster here and they're also far less likely to make rash arguments based on pride (Ian especially, given he doesn't participate here). Offering mild pushback to blind optimism is different than being overly critical, but I suppose it's all relative.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 18, 2023 8:49:30 GMT -5
I don't think that's close to a fair analysis regarding my post. I never called anyone a hater, including the previous poster. But I feel the comment made by the previous poster about trying to "bite the apple again with Franchy Cordero," is at a minimum a subtly negative dig at Rafaela. And I have seen plenty of other posts that were much more explicit in those digs. I happen to feel that there are a lot of people on this thread who are seeing the success that Rafaela is having, are struggling to reconcile that with their heavily data driven critiques of him in the past, and have gotten more openly negative because it doesn't make sense to them. I don't believe it is unfair of me to point that out. If you're rubbed the wrong way by me trying to be positive about a top prospect for the Red Sox that I would like to succeed, or now stating that I think there is legitimate evidence through past posts that certain people don't know how to wrap their heads around the success Rafaela is having and have made digs at him under the guise of "what the numbers say," then you're entitled to let me know. But I personally don't think it's cool of you to post in a manner where you try to paint yourself as the righteous person calling someone out for something they're not even doing (i.e. labeling others "haters"). I am rooting for the success of one of the Red Sox top prospects, and I am absolutely willing to admit that I am frustrated by what I have seen to the contrary from others. No one is rubbed the wrong way about you being positive about a Red Sox prospect, it’s this constant cycle of condescension, receiving a warning for said condescension, apologizing, and then starting right back up being condescending again. If you approached the discussion with any sort of legitimate reasoning or analysis then it would be received much differently but in your very short stint on this board so far there’s been none of that. What you are saying about previous condescension, and the prior warning, is valid. That warning is something that I took quite seriously. But I would claim that you are being condescending and unfair with that response in your own right, as I know that I have provided legitimate reasoning and analysis in plenty of ways. I find the statement "in your very short stint on this board so far there's been none of that" to be quite rude (and condescending).
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 18, 2023 8:56:24 GMT -5
To steer a little more back on topic - it doesn’t take a data focused mindset to believe that it is better to not swing at bad pitches than to swing at them.
Scouts who never looked at a statistic could watch Rafaela and say “that kid is really good but he’d be even better if he picked his swings better and laid off some junk” The numbers just confirm and quantify that observation.
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 18, 2023 8:58:14 GMT -5
To steer a little more back on topic - it doesn’t take a data focused mindset to believe that it is better to not swing at bad pitches than to swing at them. Scouts who never looked at a statistic could watch Rafaela and say “that kid is really good but he’d be even better if he picked his swings better and laid off some junk” The numbers just confirm and quantify that observation. That’s why I posted the Ted Williams clip in one of the Gameday threads - probably not a dude who’s ever thought about what his xwOBA
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Post by e on Aug 18, 2023 8:58:32 GMT -5
Poster 1: Do guys ever hit well in AAA and then hit poorly in the majors? Poster 2: It happens sometimes. Here are two examples. You: Poster 2 is a hater who wants Rafaela to fail. Do you not see how this is rubbing people the wrong way? EDIT: I genuinely appreciate the game-by-game updates on Rafaela you’ve posted the last few days because those posts are adding to the conversation, unlike these posts where you’re actively stifling analysis. I don't think that's close to a fair analysis regarding my post. I never called anyone a hater, including the previous poster. But I feel the comment made by the previous poster about trying to "bite the apple again with Franchy Cordero," is at a minimum a subtly negative dig at Rafaela. And I have seen plenty of other posts that were much more explicit in those digs. I happen to feel that there are a lot of people on this thread who are seeing the success that Rafaela is having, are struggling to reconcile that with their heavily data driven critiques of him in the past, and have gotten more openly negative because it doesn't make sense to them. I don't believe it is unfair of me to point that out.
If you're rubbed the wrong way by me trying to be positive about a top prospect for the Red Sox that I would like to succeed, or now stating that I think there is legitimate evidence through past posts that certain people don't know how to wrap their heads around the success Rafaela is having and have made digs at him under the guise of "what the numbers say," then you're entitled to let me know. But I personally don't think it's cool of you to post in a manner where you try to paint yourself as the righteous person calling someone out for something they're not even doing (i.e. labeling others "haters"). I am rooting for the success of one of the Red Sox top prospects, and I am absolutely willing to admit that I am frustrated by what I have seen to the contrary from others. I mainly want to respond to the claim that Rafaela is defying analytics and what he is doing doesn't line up with people who are data driven. He's running one of the highest hard hit% on the WooSox right now(46.9%). His 95th percentile EV is above average at 105.1 mph. His Z-Contact% is 87.1%. Everything that he is doing in AAA makes sense because he's hitting the ball so hard and he has great bat to ball skills. His advanced statistics line up with his great performance, so it always bothers me when people are acting like he's this player who's making the "nerds" look like fools. Everything he's done so far is very real, and very encouraging. I've also never seen someone on this forum make a "dig" at the player or hope for his failure. I'm one of the louder voices in this thread, and have made "data drive critiques" in past. I've never wished on his failure, and I try to always talk about how excited I am about the player. He's electric and arguably the most exciting prospect we have in the system. That gold glove calibar defense combined with his power is so enticing. He's my favorite prospect right now and I believe he'll be an impact centerfielder for years to come. I tend to jump in on the critiquing side because the Mookie comparison feel unrealistic and it bothers me when people become so frustrated over simple questions like chase rate. To end on a positive note because I've enjoyed the daily Rafaela updates you've posted: I'm just as excited as you are, and I hope we can both agree everyone here hopes Rafaela turns into a phenomenal player.
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Post by jmei on Aug 18, 2023 9:24:54 GMT -5
No one is rubbed the wrong way about you being positive about a Red Sox prospect, it’s this constant cycle of condescension, receiving a warning for said condescension, apologizing, and then starting right back up being condescending again. If you approached the discussion with any sort of legitimate reasoning or analysis then it would be received much differently but in your very short stint on this board so far there’s been none of that. What you are saying about previous condescension, and the prior warning, is valid. That warning is something that I took quite seriously. But I would claim that you are being condescending and unfair with that response in your own right, as I know that I have provided legitimate reasoning and analysis in plenty of ways. I find the statement "in your very short stint on this board so far there's been none of that" to be quite rude (and condescending). Please move on. This is the second time in three days that you've turned a perfectly legitimate difference of opinion on a player into a personal pissing match. You need to be able to accept that other posters may disagree with your opinions and let it go rather than getting frustrated and turning agro.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 18, 2023 9:45:11 GMT -5
To steer a little more back on topic - it doesn’t take a data focused mindset to believe that it is better to not swing at bad pitches than to swing at them. Scouts who never looked at a statistic could watch Rafaela and say “that kid is really good but he’d be even better if he picked his swings better and laid off some junk” The numbers just confirm and quantify that observation. I agree with that totally and absolutely. The ironic thing from my vantage point in this discussion, and in response to the what I will again state were rude comments made by a poster, is that I do have a "data-focused mindset." My thesis paper/project in college was an econometric analysis of the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis, which incorporated dozens of vastly populated data sets across a broad spectrum of economic indicators. When it comes to advanced analytics and prospect evaluation in baseball (which I have prefaced many of my posts by stating I am far from an expert in), I am also inclined to lean heavily in the direction of the data, even as I continue to learn more. That being said, I have also played the game of baseball at the college level, and with teammates that were drafted by MLB teams (one of whom is still in the Marlins system's upper-tiers, between AA and AAA). If I were to say that there is a "split" for me when it comes to quantitative/qualitative analysis of the game of baseball, and player development, I would say I find myself at this point somewhere around 80/20. With that being said, it is true that I am relatively "high" on Ceddanne Rafaela, although not nearly as much as you would assume having known nothing about me. I will continue to do my best to provide "legitimate reasoning and analysis" with the numbers that I continue to follow in relation to the player. If you have problems with my qualitative perspective on him and pushback against negativity, you're entitled to your perspective. If you want to continue to make rude comments which you deem "mild pushback" to "blind optimism," well then I'd certainly be willing to say that I think you're more than just a hypocrite.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 18, 2023 9:50:35 GMT -5
What you are saying about previous condescension, and the prior warning, is valid. That warning is something that I took quite seriously. But I would claim that you are being condescending and unfair with that response in your own right, as I know that I have provided legitimate reasoning and analysis in plenty of ways. I find the statement "in your very short stint on this board so far there's been none of that" to be quite rude (and condescending). Please move on. This is the second time in three days that you've turned a perfectly legitimate difference of opinion on a player into a personal pissing match. You need to be able to accept that other posters may disagree with your opinions and let it go rather than getting frustrated and turning agro. Sorry, I posted my last response prior to seeing this. I don't think it's all that fair that I am getting scrutinized to the degree to which I am in this instance, particularly when someone else is making rude comments towards me, while I have not said anything along those lines to them in this conversation
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 18, 2023 9:52:47 GMT -5
To steer a little more back on topic - it doesn’t take a data focused mindset to believe that it is better to not swing at bad pitches than to swing at them. Scouts who never looked at a statistic could watch Rafaela and say “that kid is really good but he’d be even better if he picked his swings better and laid off some junk” The numbers just confirm and quantify that observation. That’s why I posted the Ted Williams clip in one of the Gameday threads - probably not a dude who’s ever thought about what his xwOBA Yes. Williams didn't use xwOBA, but he thought about hitting VERY analytically. He titled his book "The Science of Hitting." He basically invented the idea of launch angle (he describes it as the angle the bat should be moving as it contacts the ball, a 10% upswing), talked about how on-base percentage was vital, and there's an exhibit in Cooperstown of the way he charted his batting average in different zones. It's pretty clear from the way Williams talked about hitting that he would have LOVED the modern tools that he'd have been able to use to break down pitchers.
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Post by adamgregory on Aug 18, 2023 9:56:14 GMT -5
I was thinking today, when I should have been working, there is a lot of comp seeking in this thread, with an obvious focus on guys that play elite defense; but can anyone find a comp of a defense first guy that was this good in the minors with the bat and then stalled out when he got to the show? The CJ Abrams comp is what triggered it - CJ has never at any level been as good as Ceddanne has been and at AAA. (Of course, Abrams got to the show relatively quickly, so maybe not a fair comparison.) I’m not trying to beat a dead bird here - but we are now over 150 at bats into his time at AAA and his OPS remains over 1. Go Ceddanne go. I think Abrams (who wasn't close to Rafaela's level defensively in the minors) is an example of why you usually don't see it - most of those guys are pushed aggressively. Best recent example I can think of would be Austin Hedges - he was regarded extremely highly in the minors and had mostly lived up to the reputation. Although he struggled in AA, he hit .324/.392/.521 in 79 AAA PA as a 22yo and followed that up by hitting .326/.353/.597 in 334 PA as a 23yo. But he has just a 52 wRC+ (.188/.246/.322) in 2,194 PA in MLB. He has still managed to keep getting backup catching gigs due to the defense, so even falling flat on his face he's had a career of sorts. There was a recent OF (doesn't play close to Rafaela's defense) who hit .326/.369/.603 in 419 PA at AAA as a 22yo then went on to hit .300/.398/.533 (335 PA), .325/.397/.590 (136 PA) and .321/.427/.603 (220 PA) in AAA over the past 3 seasons; but he has only managed a .217/.283/.395 line in the majors despite numerous chances. Sometimes young talented players who crush it in AAA just can't translate it to the majors. Maybe Chaim will take another bite at the apple and bring Franchy back next year. Hedges is a great example, thanks! Franchy, less so, because as you note, I wouldn’t really consider him a “glove first” prospect. I certainly could have been clearer, but I guess my thought was, if defense is your carrying tool, you will get a much longer leash when you get called up (and I’d expect essentially everyone to struggle out of the gate, that’s the nature of a new challenge). If you get a longer leash, and you’ve shown the ability to hit (albeit against inferior pitching), it feels like you’d be more likely to, over time, make the necessary adjustments to approach that previous success. (And maybe Hedges still has time to get there Joey Weimer might be an example this year, I haven’t stated to closely at the underlying metrics, but anecdotally he’s a very good (or elite) defender, and although his bat was clearly overmatched this year, he stilll found a way to add some value. (Of course, 1. He’s much bigger than Rafaela, and 2. His ABs have absolutely decreased over the last month or so.)
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Post by thegoodthebadthesox on Aug 18, 2023 9:58:19 GMT -5
That’s why I posted the Ted Williams clip in one of the Gameday threads - probably not a dude who’s ever thought about what his xwOBA Yes. Williams didn't use xwOBA, but he thought about hitting VERY analytically. He titled his book "The Science of Hitting." He basically invented the idea of launch angle (he describes it as the angle the bat should be moving as it contacts the ball, a 10% upswing), talked about how on-base percentage was vital, and there's an exhibit in Cooperstown of the way he charted his batting average in different zones. It's pretty clear from the way Williams talked about hitting that he would have LOVED the modern tools that he'd have been able to use to break down pitchers. This is what he used as a teaching tool in the video I posted, FWIW. And I definitely didn't mean to make it sound like he was dumb about hitting by any means, more that I think some of modern baseball analytics (which I enjoy and value) have become complicated for the sake of being complicated and it seems that Williams' method of communicating hitting ideas is a little simpler (in a good way).
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Post by scottysmalls on Aug 18, 2023 10:17:34 GMT -5
To steer a little more back on topic - it doesn’t take a data focused mindset to believe that it is better to not swing at bad pitches than to swing at them. Scouts who never looked at a statistic could watch Rafaela and say “that kid is really good but he’d be even better if he picked his swings better and laid off some junk” The numbers just confirm and quantify that observation. I agree with that totally and absolutely. The ironic thing from my vantage point in this discussion, and in response to the what I will again state were rude comments made by a poster, is that I do have a "data-focused mindset." My thesis paper/project in college was an econometric analysis of the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis, which incorporated dozens of vastly populated data sets across a broad spectrum of economic indicators. When it comes to advanced analytics and prospect evaluation in baseball (which I have prefaced many of my posts by stating I am far from an expert in), I am also inclined to lean heavily in the direction of the data, even as I continue to learn more. That being said, I have also played the game of baseball at the college level, and with teammates that were drafted by MLB teams (one of whom is still in the Marlins system's upper-tiers, between AA and AAA). If I were to say that there is a "split" for me when it comes to quantitative/qualitative analysis of the game of baseball, and player development, I would say I find myself at this point somewhere around 80/20. With that being said, it is true that I am relatively "high" on Ceddanne Rafaela, although not nearly as much as you would assume having known nothing about me. I will continue to do my best to provide "legitimate reasoning and analysis" with the numbers that I continue to follow in relation to the player. If you have problems with my qualitative perspective on him and pushback against negativity, you're entitled to your perspective. If you want to continue to make rude comments which you deem "mild pushback" to "blind optimism," well then I'd certainly be willing to say that I think you're more than just a hypocrite. Hey man, I didn't say any of the things you quoted in the last paragraph, nor did I say you don't have a data focused mindset, so I'm not sure why you're coming at me so hard here. You said that people who are overly data driven were crapping on Rafaela because of their own predetermined biases, I'm just pointing out that there doesn't have to be - and in fact there isn't - a disconnect between scouting and data on this.
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Post by remmartin34 on Aug 18, 2023 10:23:59 GMT -5
I agree with that totally and absolutely. The ironic thing from my vantage point in this discussion, and in response to the what I will again state were rude comments made by a poster, is that I do have a "data-focused mindset." My thesis paper/project in college was an econometric analysis of the 2007-2008 Financial Crisis, which incorporated dozens of vastly populated data sets across a broad spectrum of economic indicators. When it comes to advanced analytics and prospect evaluation in baseball (which I have prefaced many of my posts by stating I am far from an expert in), I am also inclined to lean heavily in the direction of the data, even as I continue to learn more. That being said, I have also played the game of baseball at the college level, and with teammates that were drafted by MLB teams (one of whom is still in the Marlins system's upper-tiers, between AA and AAA). If I were to say that there is a "split" for me when it comes to quantitative/qualitative analysis of the game of baseball, and player development, I would say I find myself at this point somewhere around 80/20. With that being said, it is true that I am relatively "high" on Ceddanne Rafaela, although not nearly as much as you would assume having known nothing about me. I will continue to do my best to provide "legitimate reasoning and analysis" with the numbers that I continue to follow in relation to the player. If you have problems with my qualitative perspective on him and pushback against negativity, you're entitled to your perspective. If you want to continue to make rude comments which you deem "mild pushback" to "blind optimism," well then I'd certainly be willing to say that I think you're more than just a hypocrite. Hey man, I didn't say any of the things you quoted in the last paragraph, nor did I say you don't have a data focused mindset, so I'm not sure why you're coming at me so hard here. You said that people who are overly data driven were crapping on Rafaela because of their own predetermined biases, I'm just pointing out that there doesn't have to be - and in fact there isn't - a disconnect between scouting and data on this. jmei asked us to move on, so I'm going to. That last paragraph was not in response to you, and I have no problem with anything you've said to me. I just happened to be replying to your post in agreement, and saw something else written by another poster. I've been trying my best to be as calm about this back-and-forth this morning as I can, but I did feel like I had my back up against a wall a little bit unfairly in this instance, and I just wanted to explain my perspective. I would also like to move on from it at this point.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,584
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Post by radiohix on Aug 18, 2023 13:31:39 GMT -5
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Post by keninten on Aug 19, 2023 2:11:12 GMT -5
Poster 1: Do guys ever hit well in AAA and then hit poorly in the majors? Poster 2: It happens sometimes. Here are two examples. You: Poster 2 is a hater who wants Rafaela to fail. Do you not see how this is rubbing people the wrong way? EDIT: I genuinely appreciate the game-by-game updates on Rafaela you’ve posted the last few days because those posts are adding to the conversation, unlike these posts where you’re actively stifling analysis. I don't think that's close to a fair analysis regarding my post. I never called anyone a hater, including the previous poster. But I feel the comment made by the previous poster about trying to "bite the apple again with Franchy Cordero," is at a minimum a subtly negative dig at Rafaela. And I have seen plenty of other posts that were much more explicit in those digs. I happen to feel that there are a lot of people on this thread who are seeing the success that Rafaela is having, are struggling to reconcile that with their heavily data driven critiques of him in the past, and have gotten more openly negative because it doesn't make sense to them. I don't believe it is unfair of me to point that out.If you're rubbed the wrong way by me trying to be positive about a top prospect for the Red Sox that I would like to succeed, or now stating that I think there is legitimate evidence through past posts that certain people don't know how to wrap their heads around the success Rafaela is having and have made digs at him under the guise of "what the numbers say," then you're entitled to let me know. But I personally don't think it's cool of you to post in a manner where you try to paint yourself as the righteous person calling someone out for something they're not even doing (i.e. labeling others "haters"). I am rooting for the success of one of the Red Sox top prospects, and I am absolutely willing to admit that I am frustrated by what I have seen to the contrary from others. I really hate to keep this going and to join in but a statement like this is where you put yourself into the crapper. How you feel is total crap. Especially if you are a fair analyst guy. How many 1000 different ways are there that other people could have felt? You don`t know the posters but you know how and why they responded the way they did to you. How can you possibly know what another person is thinking? I get in trouble alot because I realize I didn`t listen. This is the kind of garbage that causes this petty BS. Everytime you have attacked someone, it seems to me completely out of the blue. People like hearing differing points of view. It`s the best way to learn about anything. Now back to your regularly scheduled program.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 19, 2023 8:45:41 GMT -5
It seems to me that the ballpark in Worcester is s big booster in offensive stats, so I've started to take the AAA numbers with a big grain of salt.
As far as Rafaela goes I still have the image in my mind of JBJ except for a higher batting average and perhaps lower on base percentage, occasional power that maybe could turn to 15 - 20 HRd, with otherworldly CF defense.
If Rafaela turns out different in the majors than my initial expectation, then I'll start to adjust that image to the reality.
It seems to me expectations are now heightened, now that he is mashing in AAA.
In AAA, Bobby Dalbec look like a 30 - 35 HR guy in the majors waiting to happen. Valdez looks like a big hitter. Ditto, David Hamilton. Wilyer Abreu looks like a cant miss regular. Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter looked horrendous, like pitchers who should be changing vocations rather than aspiring to be big leaguers.
And if Nick Yorke finds himself in AAA next year then I expect him to put up gaudy numbers in AAA and have everybody clamoring for him, myself included, to be promoted.
If Mayer can finally conquer AA next year I would expect a very brief layover in AAA due to strong offensive numbers.
OTOH I would expect Drohan to struggle yet be a viable, not necessarily much more than back end starter/pen guy.
So just because Rafaela is raking doesnt make me think hes going to come up and take right away although they might and pitchers could change their approach with him getting him ready to chase to induce weak contact.
I am very much rooting for him to succeed. This team has been plagued by awful defense and he provides a solution with the question of weighing it against the potential loss of Turner as he is likely to be displaced.
But like i said given the numbers I'm seeing in AAA and I'm certainly no expert on it, I've come to the conclusion that what I'm seeing in AAA doesnt necessarily correspond to what the major league performance will be.
But at this point, if Rafaela and company are supposed to take and they do take, what more can you ask for? Just look for tell tale signs of things that could help them succeed or bite them on the butt at the major league level.
With Rafaela specifically, is he swinging at bad pitches that limit his chances to do damage? It's different than Ealbec where the question is can you curtail the Ks so that you have a chance to have a below average but reasonable batting average so that the OPS is decent.
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Post by pappyman99 on Aug 19, 2023 9:50:29 GMT -5
Rafaela and jbj are definitely different players. Jbj walked way more, Rafaela seems to have better contact now.
I’m taking jbj in the power department too
But I’ll never believe any prospect is better than jbj defensively until he proves it.
Like I mentioned before. If we inserted Rafaela next season. I’d think offensively CJ Abrams this year could be his floor., and with good defense….
That’s like a 2 WAR player
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Post by carmenfanzone on Aug 19, 2023 14:12:23 GMT -5
It seems to me that the ballpark in Worcester is s big booster in offensive stats, so I've started to take the AAA numbers with a big grain of salt. As far as Rafaela goes I still have the image in my mind of JBJ except for a higher batting average and perhaps lower on base percentage, occasional power that maybe could turn to 15 - 20 HRd, with otherworldly CF defense. If Rafaela turns out different in the majors than my initial expectation, then I'll start to adjust that image to the reality. It seems to me expectations are now heightened, now that he is mashing in AAA. In AAA, Bobby Dalbec look like a 30 - 35 HR guy in the majors waiting to happen. Valdez looks like a big hitter. Ditto, David Hamilton. Wilyer Abreu looks like a cant miss regular. Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter looked horrendous, like pitchers who should be changing vocations rather than aspiring to be big leaguers. And if Nick Yorke finds himself in AAA next year then I expect him to put up gaudy numbers in AAA and have everybody clamoring for him, myself included, to be promoted. If Mayer can finally conquer AA next year I would expect a very brief layover in AAA due to strong offensive numbers. OTOH I would expect Drohan to struggle yet be a viable, not necessarily much more than back end starter/pen guy. So just because Rafaela is raking doesnt make me think hes going to come up and take right away although they might and pitchers could change their approach with him getting him ready to chase to induce weak contact. I am very much rooting for him to succeed. This team has been plagued by awful defense and he provides a solution with the question of weighing it against the potential loss of Turner as he is likely to be displaced. But like i said given the numbers I'm seeing in AAA and I'm certainly no expert on it, I've come to the conclusion that what I'm seeing in AAA doesnt necessarily correspond to what the major league performance will be. But at this point, if Rafaela and company are supposed to take and they do take, what more can you ask for? Just look for tell tale signs of things that could help them succeed or bite them on the butt at the major league level. With Rafaela specifically, is he swinging at bad pitches that limit his chances to do damage? It's different than Ealbec where the question is can you curtail the Ks so that you have a chance to have a below average but reasonable batting average so that the OPS is decent. Any players numbers in AAA do not necessarily correspond to what the major league performance will be. The vast majority of players will have better stats in AAA than the majors, right? While Worcester may be a good hitters park, when I checked a couple of days ago Rafaela was hitting as well on the road as he was at Worcester. While it is possible Rafaela may not hit in the Majors (just like it is possible for any AAA hitter), it is also possible he will continue to adjust and hit in the majors just like he has at every level in the minors. From what I have seen of him, I would bet he will hit. We should see next year.
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Post by patford on Aug 20, 2023 9:56:35 GMT -5
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 24, 2023 21:19:47 GMT -5
At this point the Sox defense is so bad that I think Rafaela is basically untouchable
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Post by jkfer98 on Aug 28, 2023 14:21:49 GMT -5
He's up
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Post by dirtdog on Aug 28, 2023 14:36:06 GMT -5
I suggested a September call up and was scoffed at.
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Post by kingstephanos on Aug 28, 2023 14:43:49 GMT -5
I suggested a September call up and was scoffed at. This is your time to gloat, sir 🫡
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,584
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Post by radiohix on Aug 28, 2023 14:48:00 GMT -5
I was listening to this week’s podcast and Ian said that he saw him playing plus SS, 3rd Base, LF and CF. “I saw him play 4 positions in 5 games and he was above average to plus in all of them….it’s very unique to find someone who can play all these positions at the level he can. I can’t remember someone with that type of versatility at his age.” He also has power (.173 IsoP) and base stealing skills (23 SB in 26 attempts) which make him a better prospect than Jimenez in my opinion. Well, as Ian then said, he doesn't have the bat-to-ball ability that Jimenez does. We actually were kind of wondering about this and Ian asked a number of scouts who've seen Salem this year. Not a single one preferred Rafaela to Jimenez. That said, that's not a knock on Rafaela. I like him a lot and really hope the hit tool comes around. I really hope that none of these scouts work for the Sox 😜
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Post by bettsonmookie on Aug 28, 2023 14:59:33 GMT -5
I suggested a September call up and was scoffed at. Key word "September" It's still August *ducks*
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