SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
|
Post by LoneStarSox on Aug 28, 2023 15:05:11 GMT -5
Let it begin!!!!!
|
|
|
Post by ephus on Aug 28, 2023 15:06:34 GMT -5
As I wrote last week in the Wilyer thread. Let's please be patient here. Ceddanne is a very fun player to watch, he is not Mookie 2.0.
|
|
|
Post by LoneStarSox on Aug 28, 2023 15:08:09 GMT -5
As I wrote last week in the Wilyer thread. Let's please be patient here. Ceddanne is a very fun player to watch, he is not Mookie 2.0. Nope, he’s Ceddanne “freaking” Rafaela. So excited for him. Expecting big things from his career!
|
|
pd
Veteran
Posts: 325
|
Post by pd on Aug 28, 2023 15:31:21 GMT -5
As I wrote last week in the Wilyer thread. Let's please be patient here. Ceddanne is a very fun player to watch, he is not Mookie 2.0. Of course not, we don't want to limit his ceiling to HoF level player.
|
|
|
Post by pasadenasox on Aug 28, 2023 16:29:49 GMT -5
Well, as Ian then said, he doesn't have the bat-to-ball ability that Jimenez does. We actually were kind of wondering about this and Ian asked a number of scouts who've seen Salem this year. Not a single one preferred Rafaela to Jimenez. That said, that's not a knock on Rafaela. I like him a lot and really hope the hit tool comes around. I really hope that none of these scouts work for the Sox 😜 Dude. September 2021? That was probably a solid, uncontroversial evaluation in that snapshot in time. It's called "player development" for a reason. Looking forward to seeing him play. Hopefully he's proves to be a hit tool outlier.
|
|
tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
|
Post by tedf on Aug 28, 2023 16:31:19 GMT -5
Good for him!
Maybe he flops in the majors (though Dalbec's 2021 ZiPS was .219/.307/.443 -- which is more or less the player he turned out to be). Maybe he succeeds. Maybe he takes a year to adjust and THEN succeeds. How long exactly did JBJ take to figure out the majors? If Rafaela can manage it more quickly, he could have 5-6 good years in him before age catches up. I'm thinking JBJ had some skills that were more advanced than Rafaela, but the numbers suggest that there have to be other skills going the other way.
Will be interesting to see how he develops (after the first two weeks when ML pitchers are still learning how to work him).
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,584
|
Post by radiohix on Aug 28, 2023 16:36:10 GMT -5
I really hope that none of these scouts work for the Sox 😜 Dude. September 2021? That was probably a solid, uncontroversial evaluation in that snapshot in time. It's called "player development" for a reason. Looking forward to seeing him play. Hopefully he's proves to be a hit tool outlier. I don’t think it was a solid evaluation considering that the numbers then told a different story. Anyway it was more of a tong in cheek comment lol
|
|
tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
|
Post by tedf on Aug 28, 2023 16:46:04 GMT -5
Wasn't until 2022 that Rafaela started to make decent contact. Jimenez had a .381 BABIP while Rafaela had a .288, almost certainly what led to the "weak contact" bit. That reversed the following year, though, and I doubt there is any question today which is the better prospect.
|
|
|
Post by pasadenasox on Aug 28, 2023 16:47:49 GMT -5
Dude. September 2021? That was probably a solid, uncontroversial evaluation in that snapshot in time. It's called "player development" for a reason. Looking forward to seeing him play. Hopefully he's proves to be a hit tool outlier. I don’t think it was a solid evaluation considering that the numbers then told a different story. Anyway it was more of a tong in cheek comment lol .729 OPS in 2021 - he's come a long way since then. I'm pulling for him and looking forward to the show, but I'm not gonna re-write history either.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 28, 2023 16:55:55 GMT -5
Dude. September 2021? That was probably a solid, uncontroversial evaluation in that snapshot in time. It's called "player development" for a reason. Looking forward to seeing him play. Hopefully he's proves to be a hit tool outlier. I don’t think it was a solid evaluation considering that the numbers then told a different story. Anyway it was more of a tong in cheek comment lol Their numbers at the time were very similar, which was the point of the question. Wrong in the long run? Sure. Happens with scouting. Jimenez plateauing the way he did was pretty wild.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,584
|
Post by radiohix on Aug 28, 2023 17:16:22 GMT -5
I don’t think it was a solid evaluation considering that the numbers then told a different story. Anyway it was more of a tong in cheek comment lol Their numbers at the time were very similar, which was the point of the question. Wrong in the long run? Sure. Happens with scouting. Jimenez plateauing the way he did was pretty wild. Again their numbers, the core ones not the volatiles like batting average and OPS, weren’t similar: Rafaela was striking out less AND hitting for way more power (.189 vs .097) and on top of that he was a better base stealer and a superior defender who plays multiple positions at an above average level. It’s wild to me that not even one of these scouts that Ian talked to took CR over Jimenez. Anyway
|
|
|
Post by soxinsf on Aug 28, 2023 17:17:41 GMT -5
Sox now have seven outfielders and the one who is untouchable is Cedanne. Mookie 2? Maybe not but that’s a pretty big standard.
How about JBJ at his best?
In a related topic, I keep Duvall at a good price and package any one or two of the others for starting pitching.
But unless Cedanne proves a bust, he could be the CF for years to come.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
Member is Online
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2023 17:45:57 GMT -5
He's leading AAA in wRC+ for guys 22 and younger, minimum 200 PA. He's 5th among guys 23 and younger, and the other four guys have all been promoted and no one has a +100 wRC+. Some are way below. (Alas, I cleared the details off my browswr.)
When you look at either the overall leaderboard or the 23 and under, his BB% looks like a misprint. A misprint so bad it's funny.
It's no secret that I think I know a lot a lot baseball, but I have no clue how he's doing what he's doing.
This will be interesting. I do know that getting some kind of handle on how much work he needs as a hitter is a key step in shaping the 2024 roster.
BTW, if they send Hamilton down when Abreu comes back from leave (and I think they might), then Rafaela is the backup shortstop.
|
|
|
Post by foreverred9 on Aug 28, 2023 17:56:01 GMT -5
He was so composed in that press conference, seemed so genuine and it makes you just want to root for him to succeed. If you only have 15 seconds, watch that question at 4:11.
Also commented on how skipping the WBC got him comfortable with the team and Alex Cora, making him feel more prepared for today.
|
|
|
Post by ancientsoxfogey on Aug 28, 2023 18:23:46 GMT -5
He's leading AAA in wRC+ for guys 22 and younger, minimum 200 PA. He's 5th among guys 23 and younger, and the other four guys have all been promoted and no one has a +100 wRC+. Some are way below. (Alas, I cleared the details off my browswr.)
When you look at either the overall leaderboard or the 23 and under, his BB% looks like a misprint. A misprint so bad it's funny.
It's no secret that I think I know a lot a lot baseball, but I have no clue how he's doing what he's doing.
This will be interesting. I do know that getting some kind of handle on how much work he needs as a hitter is a key step in shaping the 2024 roster.
BTW, if they send Hamilton down when Abreu comes back from leave (and I think they might), then Rafaela is the backup shortstop.
From the limited clips I've seen at AA and AAA, most of what I've seen Cedanne hitting are anywhere between solid strikes and absolute meatballs. Which begs the question, are AA and AAA pitchers really that bad at not being able to throw something like a borderline pitch pretty consistently, letting him get himself out? If his chase rate is so bad, why would ANYONE ever throw him a strike? Or maybe they HAVE been throwing things that cause him to get himself out most of the time, but the times when they slip up and let one in the zone, he simply hasn't been missing it. That's one definition of a player on a hot streak -- or someone with extremely good bat to ball skills. I think we simply have to face the fact that Cedanne has been, to this point, an extreme outlier as an offensive player. And chances are, unless he completely bombs in the Majors, he's going to be an outlier there also. Most likely with not as good results, which probably means he will look like a less extreme outlier.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2023 18:52:11 GMT -5
As I wrote last week in the Wilyer thread. Let's please be patient here. Ceddanne is a very fun player to watch, he is not Mookie 2.0. Yeah, he's a much better IF.
|
|
tedf
Rookie
Posts: 162
|
Post by tedf on Aug 28, 2023 20:07:53 GMT -5
"That's one definition of a player on a hot streak -- or someone with extremely good bat to ball skills."
I think that's the key... Rafaela has a pretty extreme chase rate, a strong negative for walks, strikeouts, and quality of contact -- yet his strikeout rate remains moderate and his quality of contact has overall been pretty good. I can't see any better explanation than what you suggest.
|
|
|
Post by kingstephanos on Aug 28, 2023 22:21:59 GMT -5
Well, he'll be on all the major Top 100 Prospects Lists in the offseason.
As some could see it as *malfeasance for a such a high floor prospect, who gets a taste of the Big Leagues at 22 y/o, not to at least be at the backend of a list.
*hyperbole
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Aug 28, 2023 22:24:45 GMT -5
I'm kinda ticked Fangraphs still has him in AAA and didn't update his stats for today yet. I wanted to see a career 1.000 AVG.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 28, 2023 22:49:33 GMT -5
Hamilton or Abreu will say a lot about the view of Rafaela.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,017
Member is Online
|
Post by ericmvan on Aug 30, 2023 3:52:13 GMT -5
He's leading AAA in wRC+ for guys 22 and younger, minimum 200 PA. He's 5th among guys 23 and younger, and the other four guys have all been promoted and no one has a +100 wRC+. Some are way below. (Alas, I cleared the details off my browswr.)
When you look at either the overall leaderboard or the 23 and under, his BB% looks like a misprint. A misprint so bad it's funny.
It's no secret that I think I know a lot a lot baseball, but I have no clue how he's doing what he's doing.
This will be interesting. I do know that getting some kind of handle on how much work he needs as a hitter is a key step in shaping the 2024 roster.
BTW, if they send Hamilton down when Abreu comes back from leave (and I think they might), then Rafaela is the backup shortstop.
From the limited clips I've seen at AA and AAA, most of what I've seen Cedanne hitting are anywhere between solid strikes and absolute meatballs. Which begs the question, are AA and AAA pitchers really that bad at not being able to throw something like a borderline pitch pretty consistently, letting him get himself out? If his chase rate is so bad, why would ANYONE ever throw him a strike? Or maybe they HAVE been throwing things that cause him to get himself out most of the time, but the times when they slip up and let one in the zone, he simply hasn't been missing it. That's one definition of a player on a hot streak -- or someone with extremely good bat to ball skills.
I think we simply have to face the fact that Cedanne has been, to this point, an extreme outlier as an offensive player. And chances are, unless he completely bombs in the Majors, he's going to be an outlier there also. Most likely with not as good results, which probably means he will look like a less extreme outlier. Jason Bay.
I believe I was still on the Red Sox payroll but no longer employed by them [1] when I did a little study using pitch/fx daya. I looked at the results, player by player, on pitches in the middle of the plate, in the 9-way breakown.
The first thing you notice is the overall low percentage of hard hits on these fat pitches.
I found two outliers. Unlike everyone else, Jacoby Ellsberry swung at almost every pitch in the fat zone, without especially good results. That's another story ...
Jason Bay was amazingly good at hitting these bad pitches.
When Bay left via free agency, I remember thinking that he would have either an unusually short or unusually long career.
On the one hand, if he ever lost the ability to crush mistakes better than almost everybody else ... he had nothing else.
On the other hand, there will always be mistake pitches, and it seemed to be easy for him.
When he signed with the Mets I decided I liked the short career idea better. That of course turned out to be the case.
We may or may not have enough data on him by season's end to see if he's doing the Bay thing.
[1] Severance pay. Not common for consultants, I think!
|
|
|
Post by jodyreidnichols on Sept 2, 2023 9:34:55 GMT -5
Sox now have seven outfielders and the one who is untouchable is Cedanne. Mookie 2? Maybe not but that’s a pretty big standard. How about JBJ at his best? In a related topic, I keep Duvall at a good price and package any one or two of the others for starting pitching. But unless Cedanne proves a bust, he could be the CF for years to come. My expectation is that his floor is JBJ and I realize he may not even be that. I'd be content with a JBJ type career with the peak being his AS season. I hope and believe he has a chance to be better and I don't expect to see another Mookie in my lifetime.
|
|
|
Post by trotnixon7 on Sept 3, 2023 12:44:04 GMT -5
I think JBJ is getting a little undervalued if he's being tossed around as the floor.
From 15-20 he had an OPS+ of 101 and averaged 4.1 WAR per 650 PAs.
I think most people would take the outcome of 3.0 WAR.
He was frustrating, very hot/cold but..valuable.
|
|
|
Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 3, 2023 12:51:37 GMT -5
I think JBJ is getting a little undervalued if he's being tossed around as the floor. From 15-20 he had an OPS+ of 101 and averaged 4.1 WAR per 650 PAs. I think most people would take the outcome of 3.0 WAR. He was frustrating, very hot/cold but..valuable. I think most mlb teams would have been thrilled to have JBJ for the 1st 6 years of his career.
|
|
|
Post by trotnixon7 on Sept 3, 2023 12:58:58 GMT -5
100%. Very streaky but still ended up with league average numbers at a premium position who played very good defense. You take that all day.
|
|
|