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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 3, 2023 15:32:14 GMT -5
Ceddanne will prove to be a better fielding outfielder than JBJ if only because he has greater speed. I think that he will also be superior at the plate with a higher contact rate and better average.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 3, 2023 15:57:48 GMT -5
Ceddanne will prove to be a better fielding outfielder than JBJ if only because he has greater speed. I think that he will also be superior at the plate with a higher contact rate and better average. That would be a terrific outcome.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 3, 2023 16:00:33 GMT -5
Ceddanne will prove to be a better fielding outfielder than JBJ if only because he has greater speed. I think that he will also be superior at the plate with a higher contact rate and better average. That would be one of the best players in the league so that shouldn't really be expected.
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 3, 2023 17:54:21 GMT -5
Yeah, I mean, I get how someone can reach that conclusion looking at what Rafaela can do, but "JBJ with better speed, hitting, and defense" is a no-doubter for the HOF if they stay healthy. That just seems wildly unrealistic and unfair for literally any prospect.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 3, 2023 20:49:43 GMT -5
Ceddanne will prove to be a better fielding outfielder than JBJ if only because he has greater speed. I think that he will also be superior at the plate with a higher contact rate and better average. That would be one of the best players in the league so that shouldn't really be expected. I see him at .275 with 20 hrs. He may not have the JBJ arm, but it is a strong one. Bradley was a .225 hitter lifetime. To beat that does not elevate Rafaela to hall of fame status.
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 3, 2023 21:02:37 GMT -5
That would be one of the best players in the league so that shouldn't really be expected. I see him at .275 with 20 hrs. He may not have the JBJ arm, but it is a strong one. Bradley was a .225 hitter lifetime. To beat that does not elevate Rafaela to hall of fame status. Feel like you're underrating JBJ or at least peak JBJ anyway. I do think Rafaela will have a higher average and probably be a 15ish HR guy. However his obp will likely always be below average. I like Rafaela and hope he can be a 2-3 fWAR type of guy. He could certainly have a year or two where he does better. It was just 1 season but JBJ peaked at 5.6 fWAR year. I think that'd be a lot to expect Rafaela to match that in his best year.
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Post by Canseco on Sept 3, 2023 21:16:33 GMT -5
Can we get this kid some ABs?
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 3, 2023 21:21:14 GMT -5
I see him at .275 with 20 hrs. He may not have the JBJ arm, but it is a strong one. Bradley was a .225 hitter lifetime. To beat that does not elevate Rafaela to hall of fame status. Feel like you're underrating JBJ or at least peak JBJ anyway. I do think Rafaela will have a higher average and probably be a 15ish HR guy. However his obp will likely always be below average. I like Rafaela and hope he can be a 2-3 fWAR type of guy. He could certainly have a year or two where he does better. It was just 1 season but JBJ peaked at 5.6 fWAR year. I think that'd be a lot to expect Rafaela to match that in his best year. Let's check back next October...
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Post by ematz1423 on Sept 3, 2023 21:26:11 GMT -5
Feel like you're underrating JBJ or at least peak JBJ anyway. I do think Rafaela will have a higher average and probably be a 15ish HR guy. However his obp will likely always be below average. I like Rafaela and hope he can be a 2-3 fWAR type of guy. He could certainly have a year or two where he does better. It was just 1 season but JBJ peaked at 5.6 fWAR year. I think that'd be a lot to expect Rafaela to match that in his best year. Let's check back next October... That's fair, like I said I like Rafaela a lot. Think even if he only reaches his floor he's a valuable MLBer with his great fielding in CF and versatility to be a good fielding MI with some pop. Either way I'm excited to see what he can do for the ML squad.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 4, 2023 6:58:42 GMT -5
Let's check back next October... That's fair, like I said I like Rafaela a lot. Think even if he only reaches his floor he's a valuable MLBer with his great fielding in CF and versatility to be a good fielding MI with some pop. Either way I'm excited to see what he can do for the ML squad. On the topic of next Sox milb guys that I have seen with potential to star with the Sox, book Bleis....even tho far away and with a lost season.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 4, 2023 9:38:32 GMT -5
I think JBJ is getting a little undervalued if he's being tossed around as the floor. From 15-20 he had an OPS+ of 101 and averaged 4.1 WAR per 650 PAs. I think most people would take the outcome of 3.0 WAR. He was frustrating, very hot/cold but..valuable. I think most mlb teams would have been thrilled to have JBJ for the 1st 6 years of his career. It won't be much fun if Rafaela's first season on the opening day roster is like JBJ's age 23 season, when he was a Spring Training star and then was hitting .097 .263 .129 .392 through Apr 17, and if his first full season is like JBJ's .198 .265 .266 at age 24.
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 4, 2023 9:39:36 GMT -5
I think that if they are not going to play him then send him back down so he can get more at bats at triple A. I have never been a fan of promoting someone and then having them sit.
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Post by manfred on Sept 4, 2023 9:50:05 GMT -5
Can I ask a serious question: how many of us have seen him play regularly? I mean, to say something like he’ll be better defensively than JBJ, who was about as good as it gets… I assume that is based on regular viewing? Otherwise, it just seems like wild speculation.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 4, 2023 10:19:07 GMT -5
I see him at .275 with 20 hrs. For context, there were just 16 MLB hitters who did this last year. Might want to dial the expectations down a bit. That's like Ty France or JT Realmuto.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 4, 2023 10:28:15 GMT -5
I think most mlb teams would have been thrilled to have JBJ for the 1st 6 years of his career. It won't be much fun if Rafaela's first season on the opening day roster is like JBJ's age 23 season, when he was a Spring Training star and then was hitting .097 .263 .129 .392 through Apr 17, and if his first full season is like JBJ's .198 .265 .266 at age 24. My prediction for Rafaela would be a duplicate of JBJ’s first two years.
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Post by incandenza on Sept 4, 2023 10:29:08 GMT -5
Can I ask a serious question: how many of us have seen him play regularly? I mean, to say something like he’ll be better defensively than JBJ, who was about as good as it gets… I assume that is based on regular viewing? Otherwise, it just seems like wild speculation. I'm pretty sure Chris and Ian have specifically said that JBJ's defense is an unfair comp for Rafaela, so yeah, as with the Kiermaier comp, I think people slide a little too easily from "he's an exceptionally good defender" to "he'll be as good as literally the best defensive outfielders to play the game."
Having not seen him play regularly, I'm imagining something like Manuel Margot with hopefully a little more power.
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Post by oldfaithful2019 on Sept 4, 2023 10:29:50 GMT -5
Can I ask a serious question: how many of us have seen him play regularly? I mean, to say something like he’ll be better defensively than JBJ, who was about as good as it gets… I assume that is based on regular viewing? Otherwise, it just seems like wild speculation. I have seen enough of each of them at AA in Hadlock field to say with total confidence that JBJ was a better outfielder at that stage. Who knows what the future brings.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 4, 2023 13:09:14 GMT -5
I see him at .275 with 20 hrs. For context, there were just 16 MLB hitters who did this last year. Might want to dial the expectations down a bit. That's like Ty France or JT Realmuto. Yeah Chris...I was thinking more career wise in reference to JBJ batting .225...altho I did say let's check next year....some confusion I may have created there. I think Rafaela has been given a bit of short shift on his batting prowess. As to fielding comp, I believe that Rafaela's speed in the OF differentiates him. I have seen both JBJ and Rafaela about 6 times...not a lot. I did see a catch by Rafaela last year at Hadlock which was the greatest I've ever seen in person. I'm sure that it's in his 2O22 highlights on YouTube. I remember that Story was playing in the game and was laughing in amazement as he went over to talk with the then second baseman...who reputedly said 'we see that stuff all the time' from him. And wasn't JBJs range or jump questioned at some point? Suffice to say that they are both great fielders. I'm saddened that JBJ's career went south with the bat. I still remember when he was recalled to the Sox during a home stand at Fenway. For several games he was like the Babe.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 4, 2023 13:40:22 GMT -5
My recollection of JBJ was that he had excellent route running, outstanding jump and a rocket arm and that his foot speed was considered averagish for a CF. We are waiting to see Ceddanne on a regular basis but reports from multiple sources who are in a position to know is that his speed is above average, his jump is exceptional, is arm is strong (maybe a tick or so under JBJ but still plenty for a CF or even RF). What we need to see is is route running, but remember he has played relatively little in CF compared to Bradley whose entire career, I believe was as an OF. Regardless, so looking forward to seeing Rafaela get regular time. And I agree with an earlier post, if they aren't going to play him then send him down and let him continue to develop his hitting approach - they have plenty of OF to fill in even with Duran out, they don't need him to be the 6th behind Verdugo, Duvall, Refsnyder, Abreu and Masa.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Sept 4, 2023 13:58:14 GMT -5
Yeah, I mean, I get how someone can reach that conclusion looking at what Rafaela can do, but "JBJ with better speed, hitting, and defense" is a no-doubter for the HOF if they stay healthy. That just seems wildly unrealistic and unfair for literally any prospect. That's overrating Jackie Bradley Jr. Maybe a no doubt all star. Isn't this guy basically JBJ with better speed, hitting and defense? He's not a HOF. www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/camermi01.shtmlOf course, that would be an absolutely wonderful result but it's not a HOF. We would all take Mike Cameron. edit: If you are using 2016 JBJ as the baseline, it's a no doubt HOF. If you are using his career or even 2015-2020, not even close.
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 4, 2023 14:20:53 GMT -5
Yeah, I mean, I get how someone can reach that conclusion looking at what Rafaela can do, but "JBJ with better speed, hitting, and defense" is a no-doubter for the HOF if they stay healthy. That just seems wildly unrealistic and unfair for literally any prospect. That's overrating Jackie Bradley Jr. Maybe a no doubt all star. Isn't this guy basically JBJ with better speed, hitting and defense? He's not a HOF. www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/camermi01.shtmlOf course, that would be an absolutely wonderful result but it's not a HOF. We would all take Mike Cameron. edit: If you are using 2016 JBJ as the baseline, it's a no doubt HOF. If you are using his career or even 2015-2020, not even close. Point taken, and Mike Cameron is still a pretty aggressive projection for a top-5 prospect in all of baseball, let alone a guy like Rafaela. But for what it’s worth, JBJ was worth 4 bWAR/600 PAs over that 2015-2020 period. “4-WAR player but better in all facets of the game” is getting into potential HOF territory. I think JBJ would be a terrific outcome for Rafaela, and if he’s that good during his years of control it will be a major win for the organization.
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Post by rickasadoorian on Sept 4, 2023 16:09:15 GMT -5
That's overrating Jackie Bradley Jr. Maybe a no doubt all star. Isn't this guy basically JBJ with better speed, hitting and defense? He's not a HOF. www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/camermi01.shtmlOf course, that would be an absolutely wonderful result but it's not a HOF. We would all take Mike Cameron. edit: If you are using 2016 JBJ as the baseline, it's a no doubt HOF. If you are using his career or even 2015-2020, not even close. Point taken, and Mike Cameron is still a pretty aggressive projection for a top-5 prospect in all of baseball, let alone a guy like Rafaela. But for what it’s worth, JBJ was worth 4 bWAR/600 PAs over that 2015-2020 period. “4-WAR player but better in all facets of the game” is getting into potential HOF territory. I think JBJ would be a terrific outcome for Rafaela, and if he’s that good during his years of control it will be a major win for the organization. Yeah, Cameron is like a Top 2-3% projection for Rafaela, if not top 1. As far as JBJ, if someone is just looking at his career numbers, I don't think it's that overly optimistic to expect Rafaela to be faster, a better defender and better at contact/average, . He's already faster. It's hard to imagine someone as fast as him hitting below .225. The hard part will be being a superior defender. I think using JBJ's entire career is a bit unfair (he was worth -1.6 WAR his last 3 seasons and was terrible at the plate) but his career line is his career line. I guess a lot of it depends on what "superior at the plate means" because anything better than an 82 OPS+ (.225/.303/.381 career line) would be superior at the plate. With all that said, I think career JBJ would be a decent outcome, if not a boring one. 2013-2020 (.239/.321/.412, 94 OPS+) would be a bit better. edit: Like, how much lower than an 82 OPS+ would he have to get before he became a utility player?
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chaimtime
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Post by chaimtime on Sept 4, 2023 17:05:10 GMT -5
Point taken, and Mike Cameron is still a pretty aggressive projection for a top-5 prospect in all of baseball, let alone a guy like Rafaela. But for what it’s worth, JBJ was worth 4 bWAR/600 PAs over that 2015-2020 period. “4-WAR player but better in all facets of the game” is getting into potential HOF territory. I think JBJ would be a terrific outcome for Rafaela, and if he’s that good during his years of control it will be a major win for the organization. Yeah, Cameron is like a Top 2-3% projection for Rafaela, if not top 1. As far as JBJ, if someone is just looking at his career numbers, I don't think it's that overly optimistic to expect Rafaela to be faster, a better defender and better at contact/average, . He's already faster. It's hard to imagine someone as fast as him hitting below .225. The hard part will be being a superior defender. I think using JBJ's entire career is a bit unfair (he was worth -1.6 WAR his last 3 seasons and was terrible at the plate) but his career line is his career line. I guess a lot of it depends on what "superior at the plate means" because anything better than an 82 OPS+ (.225/.303/.381 career line) would be superior at the plate. With all that said, I think career JBJ would be a decent outcome, if not a boring one. 2013-2020 (.239/.321/.412, 94 OPS+) would be a bit better. edit: Like, how much lower than an 82 OPS+ would he have to get before he became a utility player? It seems like Rafaela is a safe bet to be at least a Joey Wiemer type—78 wRC+, 1.1 WAR in a tick under 400 PAs this year. Good center field defense gets you a lot of leeway, and JBJ is a pretty good example of this—his defense was good enough that teams were willing to give him over 900 PAs as one of the absolute worst hitters in baseball. In light of those 911 truly dreadful PAs, I think it’s fair to look at JBJ’s full first stint in Boston as a comp for Rafaela, which puts him at a 94 OPS+. That seems like a good proxy for “Prime Jackie” especially given how streaky he was—when JBJ was hot he could carry the team for weeks at a time, and I think using the career line underplays how good he was when he was on.
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sportshubby
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Post by sportshubby on Sept 4, 2023 17:05:45 GMT -5
Obviously it depends on what moves they make, but in my head he is on the short-list to start at 2b next year. Certainly after watching the parade of alternatives this year, I would be happy to see the defensive potential of Story and Rafaela up the middle.
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Post by gerry on Sept 4, 2023 17:52:31 GMT -5
Obviously it depends on what moves they make, but in my head he is on the short-list to start at 2b next year. Certainly after watching the parade of alternatives this year, I would be happy to see the defensive potential of Story and Rafaela up the middle. Beat me to it. If SS Story can play a great 2B why not Rafaella? This would allow an OF of Duran, Abreu, Dugie, Duvall if JT leaves; and leaves the veteran Storey at SS leading the IF. Defense, speed, OBP, power. Sure Rafaella’s best use might be in CF or super utility but this could be an option for 2023
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