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Post by rickasadoorian on Sept 4, 2023 18:28:46 GMT -5
Yeah, Cameron is like a Top 2-3% projection for Rafaela, if not top 1. As far as JBJ, if someone is just looking at his career numbers, I don't think it's that overly optimistic to expect Rafaela to be faster, a better defender and better at contact/average, . He's already faster. It's hard to imagine someone as fast as him hitting below .225. The hard part will be being a superior defender. I think using JBJ's entire career is a bit unfair (he was worth -1.6 WAR his last 3 seasons and was terrible at the plate) but his career line is his career line. I guess a lot of it depends on what "superior at the plate means" because anything better than an 82 OPS+ (.225/.303/.381 career line) would be superior at the plate. With all that said, I think career JBJ would be a decent outcome, if not a boring one. 2013-2020 (.239/.321/.412, 94 OPS+) would be a bit better. edit: Like, how much lower than an 82 OPS+ would he have to get before he became a utility player? It seems like Rafaela is a safe bet to be at least a Joey Wiemer type—78 wRC+, 1.1 WAR in a tick under 400 PAs this year. Good center field defense gets you a lot of leeway, and JBJ is a pretty good example of this—his defense was good enough that teams were willing to give him over 900 PAs as one of the absolute worst hitters in baseball. In light of those 911 truly dreadful PAs, I think it’s fair to look at JBJ’s full first stint in Boston as a comp for Rafaela, which puts him at a 94 OPS+. That seems like a good proxy for “Prime Jackie” especially given how streaky he was—when JBJ was hot he could carry the team for weeks at a time, and I think using the career line underplays how good he was when he was on. My optimistic homer side is hoping he ends up like this player offensively www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=samuel001jua, while offering like 80% of the WAR value JBJ did defensively. That would obviously be a fantastic outcome. It would be around a 36.5 WAR player (Cameron was 46.7). Dream big. Samuel had a career 6.6% BB% and 21.6% K% in the majors while having a 101 OPS+/wRC+. If Rafaela is a league average hitter (big if) I think he'd be eerily similar to Samuel. It's kinda scary how good Rafaela would be if he actually is league average offensively. There'd be potential for some 5-6 WAR seasons with his speed and defense even with league average offense. Their age 22 seasons are eerily similar, right down to the 485 minor league PA and the monster performance in AAA forcing their way to the majors after a meh performance in AA. Samuel had 30bb/96k to Rafaela's 26k/103bb in those 485 PA.
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Sept 5, 2023 12:44:08 GMT -5
Can we get this kid some ABs? Would love to see some myself, just to get a clearer view of how he can handle ML pitching -- but it seems that Cora is more focused on Abreu, either because he (reasonably) believes Abreu to be more advanced or because finding out what Abreu can do is more urgent?
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Sept 5, 2023 12:48:52 GMT -5
Obviously it depends on what moves they make, but in my head he is on the short-list to start at 2b next year. Certainly after watching the parade of alternatives this year, I would be happy to see the defensive potential of Story and Rafaela up the middle. I've wondered that myself... Not like the Red Sox have second base alternatives beating down the door. I doubt Yorke is ready, and am not seeing anything that suggests Valdez or Urias is the answer.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 5, 2023 12:55:35 GMT -5
The team probably does not want to commit to Valdez yet as the strong side of a platoon, but a Rafaela/Valdez platoon at second is a fun thought just because of how polar opposite they are.
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tedf
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Post by tedf on Sept 5, 2023 13:23:18 GMT -5
The team probably does not want to commit to Valdez yet as the strong side of a platoon, but a Rafaela/Valdez platoon at second is a fun thought just because of how polar opposite they are. This is one where I wish I had access to better minor league stats... His EV is on the low side (not surprising given his stature), similar to Arroyo and Urias. For a "bat first" 2B, I want to see numbers closer to Nolan Gorman.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 5, 2023 14:07:57 GMT -5
When discussing Rafaela playing 2nd base it should be noted: - He has started only 9 games (11 games total) at the position since rising above rookie ball (in 2019) - He has a plus arm that should play well at shortstop while starting 50 games at the position above rookie-ball (52 total) - Story currently ranks 44th in average arm strength (at SS) out of 59 shortstops with 50+ throws; his max arm strength is 60th out of 70 (includes other infield positions)
Not concerned with Story playing shortstop, and if given the choice Cora may differ toward the veteran, but Rafaela at SS and Story at 2B may be both the more optimal setup and the setup that's easier to begin with (given Story's experience at 2B and Rafaela's lack of experience there in recent seasons).
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Post by adamgregory on Sept 5, 2023 14:37:30 GMT -5
I too wish we could see some more ABs, but I’m wondering what everyone thinks about the value of spending time in the big leagues despite not playing (much)?
In the middle of the season I could see how it would be perceived as detrimental, because you want a guy getting regular ABs, but I think there is something to be said about spending time around guys who are doing it at the highest level. Especially if he’s a potential starter out of the gate next year, spending a month (mostly) watching from the bench should help reduce the butterflies come spring time.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 5, 2023 15:29:15 GMT -5
If it were a matter of months I'd want him getting the reps. Two weeks of at-bats, though? That really isn't changing anything on his developmental path. He's on the roster because he's one of the 28 best available players. I don't think it's really a consideration of wanting him around major leaguers or whatever, I think he's just a useful, versatile backup right now on a team that can really use that.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 5, 2023 15:30:08 GMT -5
If it were a matter of months I'd want him getting the reps. Two weeks of at-bats, though? That really isn't changing anything on his developmental path. He's on the roster because he's one of the 28 best available players. He’s also still getting into most games and is for sure improving their chances of winning when he’s put out there late with a lead for Yoshida The OF defense becomes downright good when it’s Duvall-Rafaela-Abreu/Doogs. Only weak point defensively is CI.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Sept 12, 2023 13:49:15 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 12, 2023 14:14:48 GMT -5
FYI, by "winter ball" they almost certainly mean a foreign winter league, not the AFL. He played in Puerto Rico last offseason for Caguas, which has strong Red Sox ties through Cora and Ramon Vázquez. MLB guys don't play in the AFL.
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Post by nonothing on Sept 12, 2023 16:10:58 GMT -5
Would love to see Rafaela have ABs that do not get to two strikes. The persistent 0-2and 1-2 counts are a killer. He is learning and battling. But he has got to be more selective swinging early in counts, especially with runners on and pressure on the pitcher.
He is also swinging too hard. He needs to try to get on and stop trying to get his first MLB HR.
I think he will learn to do it. But he is a bit painful to watch right now. Abreu is a much more competitive player at this point. I am super high on Rafaela LT because he doesn't need to hit much, but he is not MLB ready yet really. Fun to watch this time of year though.
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Post by terriblehondo on Sept 12, 2023 16:25:01 GMT -5
Would love to see Rafaela have ABs that do not get to two strikes. The persistent 0-2and 1-2 counts are a killer. He is learning and battling. But he has got to be more selective swinging early in counts, especially with runners on and pressure on the pitcher. He is also swinging too hard. He needs to try to get on and stop trying to get his first MLB HR. I think he will learn to do it. But he is a bit painful to watch right now. Abreu is a much more competitive player at this point. I am super high on Rafaela LT because he doesn't need to hit much, but he is not MLB ready yet really. Fun to watch this time of year though. I was thinking the same thing today watching the game. He had some pitches to hit but I thought he was over swinging. Maybe if he can get some consistent at bats it will get better. But not having seen him play that might be how he always swings.
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cdj
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Post by cdj on Sept 12, 2023 16:28:57 GMT -5
I think we will be seeing him every day from here on out
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 12, 2023 18:33:18 GMT -5
I think we will be seeing him every day from here on out As you know, SteveofBradenton and I have pushed this guy since we saw him in the GCL. We have believed that his offensive capabilities are much higher than have been reported here. What a blast. Stay tuned.
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Post by nonothing on Sept 12, 2023 18:33:24 GMT -5
Well he swung hard on the first pitch tonight and it paid off. That was fun to see -- but would love at some point to see discipline now that he got that out of the way.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 12, 2023 18:33:35 GMT -5
Dinger #1 Sept 12
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 12, 2023 18:46:43 GMT -5
Well he swung hard on the first pitch tonight and it paid off. That was fun to see -- but would love at some point to see discipline now that he got that out of the way. Hey, where is Devers' discipline? Terrible! This kid will develop better discipline over time and is working hard on it. It's Already several parsecs ahead of Devers. As an aside, sadly Raffy could be so much better.
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Post by bettsonmookie on Sept 12, 2023 19:39:28 GMT -5
Gotta admit, after seeing so many Oppo HR's from Ceddanne in AAA, seeing him put that type of swing on 94 way inside has me extremely excited. I am buying his stock.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 18, 2023 13:35:51 GMT -5
A breakdown of his balls in play, by type: Hard-Hit expected Hits, Hard-hit expected Outs, Soft-hit expected Hits, Soft-hit expected Outs.
Not including yesterday (did it last night)
Type PA Freq+ BA xBA SA xSA Extra H Extra TB Hard x Hit 5 104 1.000 .705 2.200 1.683 1.48 2.59 Hard x Out 5 107 .600 .292 .800 .397 1.54 2.02 Soft x Hit 4 164 .750 .737 .750 .848 . 05 -.39 Soft x Out 13 86 .308 .170 .308 .170 1.79 1.79 Tot 4.86 6.00
The one good thing is that his hard-hit % is above average.
He's been lucky in every possible way. An extra 1.5 hits or so in 3 of the 4 categories, and in the legitimate (expected) cheap hit bucket, he's been normal in results but he's done that 64% more often than norm. If there's a skill for that, it's not that big.
If you give him credit for the extra hard hits, the lucky hits may be as low as 4.5. It's a tricky adjustment!
Actual, then expected, up to date:
.320 / .346 / .540 = .376 wOBA .224 / .254 / .360 = .266
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 18, 2023 16:38:33 GMT -5
Gotta admit, after seeing so many Oppo HR's from Ceddanne in AAA, seeing him put that type of swing on 94 way inside has me extremely excited. I am buying his stock. If Rafaela can put together league average offense or better, and can fit a lot of places on defense, he has a real leg up on a roster spot because he is a RHH, so he addresses our roster/lineup imbalance. But I don't think he hits a lot of HR to RF in Fenway, so if he needs to hit that way a lot to be an effective hitter, he needs to be a line-drive hitter to the opposite field.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Feb 27, 2024 23:30:59 GMT -5
Jim Callis: "My favorite part of the spring is watching top prospects try to grab a starting role in the big leagues for the first time. Here are five I'm monitoring closely" ... Rafaela is the 5th guy.
I think the decision here is very easy. If he makes such a large advance offensively that he would be upset to be sent down, he's your opening day CF. Otherwise, back to Woo. Getting a look at Abreu as an everyday player with the opposition having a scouting report on him doesn't suck.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Feb 28, 2024 8:39:49 GMT -5
Jim Callis: "My favorite part of the spring is watching top prospects try to grab a starting role in the big leagues for the first time. Here are five I'm monitoring closely" ... Rafaela is the 5th guy. I think the decision here is very easy. If he makes such a large advance offensively that he would be upset to be sent down, he's your opening day CF. Otherwise, back to Woo. Getting a look at Abreu as an everyday player with the opposition having a scouting report on him doesn't suck.
I’d be thoroughly shocked if they don’t lock down the extra year of control regardless of how he looks this spring. It will be good to get an extended look at Duran, Abreu, and TON before he gets called up anyway. There is a lot of variance in that group already.
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Post by bosox904 on Feb 28, 2024 9:22:38 GMT -5
Jim Callis: "My favorite part of the spring is watching top prospects try to grab a starting role in the big leagues for the first time. Here are five I'm monitoring closely" ... Rafaela is the 5th guy. I think the decision here is very easy. If he makes such a large advance offensively that he would be upset to be sent down, he's your opening day CF. Otherwise, back to Woo. Getting a look at Abreu as an everyday player with the opposition having a scouting report on him doesn't suck.
I’d be thoroughly shocked if they don’t lock down the extra year of control regardless of how he looks this spring. It will be good to get an extended look at Duran, Abreu, and TON before he gets called up anyway. There is a lot of variance in that group already. But to get that extra year of control he'll need to be down a month+ longer than normal to get it because of his stint last year.
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Post by ematz1423 on Feb 28, 2024 9:43:27 GMT -5
I don't think they play games with the control on Rafaela I just think it comes down to will he play every day or close to it? If the answer is yes, he breaks camp. If the answer is no he will be in AAA so that he can play every day.
Chances are one way or another he is one of the top 12-13 position players in the org right now but if he's more in the 10-13 range and will be used as a utility guy then it would be a disservice to his development since IMO he needs to be playing every day to get reps in the batters box.
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