SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
|
Post by Darwin's Curve on Sept 9, 2024 14:14:35 GMT -5
I'm not sure where this "super utility" thing is coming from. He's a GG CF. Other than that, he's shown himself to be not very good defensively at SS. Maybe he'll grow there, or learn 2B, but he's not the first defensive option on the roster for either of those spots. And his bat isn't good enough right now to shoehorn him in.
|
|
ematz1423
Veteran
Posts: 6,420
Member is Online
|
Post by ematz1423 on Sept 9, 2024 14:18:10 GMT -5
I feel mostly the same now as I did when they signed the extension, it was unnecessary but it's not really enough money to the point it will hamper them much if at all. I'm not really sold on his bat and they currently have better options for CF and RF that are controlled for the next several years anyway. Then again I wouldn't have projected Duran to become a plus defender in CF at the time of the extension.
|
|
|
Post by puzzler on Sept 9, 2024 14:19:56 GMT -5
I'm not sure where this "super utility" thing is coming from. He's a GG CF. Other than that, he's shown himself to be not very good defensively at SS. Maybe he'll grow there, or learn 2B, but he's not the first defensive option on the roster for either of those spots. And his bat isn't good enough right now to shoehorn him in. Yeah, I don't see it either. He's one of the best three CFs in baseball and if he is playing, should be playing there every single game. The only argument I can see otherwise, is playing RF in an alignment with Duran and Anthony - where he is maybe a better fit in Fenway for RF than Duran is and Duran is perfectly fine in CF.
|
|
|
Post by bentossaurus on Sept 10, 2024 6:14:15 GMT -5
I have been a fan of Rafaela since I saw him on the back fields of Fort Meyers a couple of years ago and the little guy seemed to hit the ball harder than anyone else on the field. When going good, he is fun to watch as he plays with a lot of athleticism and flair. (sort of like the team he plays for). However, at the major league level, he seems to be a flawed player ( again, much like the team he plays for). We all know he swings at too many pitches outside the strike zone. The result is he has an on base percentage of under .300 and a batting average of around .250. I know he plays gold glove centerfield. But miraculously, Duran has also become a very good centerfielder. I am not sure Rafaela's defense is so much better than Duran's that he should be given the starting centerfield job next year. He could improve, but he might not. I would rather use him as a utility player and see O'Neil in let, Duran in center, and Ref/Abreau platoon in right at least until Anthony is ready to take over in right. I don't think the additional defense you get from Rafaela makes up for his limitations at bat, at least not off of what we have seen to date. Tell me about it! If only we had a thread last year when he was in AAA where all these tings were pointed out as a reason to keep him there and refine his approach a little. Having said that, he has been invaluable this season, and would have been up as soon as Story went down.
|
|
|
Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 10, 2024 7:59:57 GMT -5
Jarren Duran is a very good CF. Ceddanne Rafaela is an exceptionally good CF and having one of those improves your corner outfielders because of the area he covers. From all reports Roman Anthony has a superior arm to Duran (as does Rafaela) and as he can play an acceptable CF it seems he would be just fine in Fenway's RF moving Duran ot LF. Those 3 probably make the Sox one of if not THE top defensive outfield in MLB and, as I've said before, if Ceddanne Rafaela is the weakest hitter in the lineup there are likely 25 to 29 teams that would love to have that "problem". Also what are the chances that Duran regresses a bit (though I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't) and it seems highly probable that 23 y.o. Ceddanne fixes some of those flaws as he adjust to MLB just like he did at the minor league levels along the way.
Next year's Red Sox: C- Wong, Jansen, Teel(?) 1b Casei 2b Grissom, Campbell(?) ss Story, Mayer 3b Devers LF Duran CF Rafaela RF Anthony DH Yoshida, O'Niell (if TON - or someone like him - is signed Yoshi is probably traded as there is a need for the RH bat) Not seeing a lot of holes in that lineup and right now the lone unproven starter is Anthony with Mayer, Grissom, Teel and Campbell all there to pick up the slack.
Now Go. Get. Some. Pitching!
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 10, 2024 9:29:55 GMT -5
As we've mentioned, the scouting consensus on Anthony this year is that he's looked more like a corner OF. I think it's also telling that he's gotten 16 starts in LF and 4 in RF this year when he hasn't been in CF.
|
|
|
Post by wanderingdude on Sept 11, 2024 13:14:45 GMT -5
Rafaela is currently running a 2.9 BB%, which would be the worst among qualified hitters by year since 2021. It would be the fourth worst year since 2018. He hasn’t drawn a walk since August 9th, and 4 total since the All star break. I know he is never going to be someone with good swing decisions, but he is never going to be a good or consistent hitter being this extreme. There are only two players that have had a WRC+ above 104 in the bottom 20 of walk percentage since 2018, with 2024 Luis Arraez and 2019 Tim Anderson being those players.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 11, 2024 13:20:44 GMT -5
It's interesting that after Cora said Rafaela would get time at 2B with Story back, he hasn't yet. Of course the fact in those 4 games they have faced 2 LHP (Yoshida and Abreu to the bench, Rafaela to CF) and Story sat in one of the other games (Rafaela at SS) means he hasn't had to yet, but if you didn't know better, you'd still call Valdez the starting 2B.
|
|
|
Post by carmenfanzone on Sept 11, 2024 16:29:08 GMT -5
Jarren Duran is a very good CF. Ceddanne Rafaela is an exceptionally good CF and having one of those improves your corner outfielders because of the area he covers. From all reports Roman Anthony has a superior arm to Duran (as does Rafaela) and as he can play an acceptable CF it seems he would be just fine in Fenway's RF moving Duran ot LF. Those 3 probably make the Sox one of if not THE top defensive outfield in MLB and, as I've said before, if Ceddanne Rafaela is the weakest hitter in the lineup there are likely 25 to 29 teams that would love to have that "problem". Also what are the chances that Duran regresses a bit (though I wouldn't be surprised if he didn't) and it seems highly probable that 23 y.o. Ceddanne fixes some of those flaws as he adjust to MLB just like he did at the minor league levels along the way. Next year's Red Sox: C- Wong, Jansen, Teel(?) 1b Casei 2b Grissom, Campbell(?) ss Story, Mayer 3b Devers LF Duran CF Rafaela RF Anthony DH Yoshida, O'Niell (if TON - or someone like him - is signed Yoshi is probably traded as there is a need for the RH bat) Not seeing a lot of holes in that lineup and right now the lone unproven starter is Anthony with Mayer, Grissom, Teel and Campbell all there to pick up the slack. Now Go. Get. Some. Pitching! Respectfully, in my view the goal is not to have the best defensive outfield in baseball; it is to have the best overall outfield in baseball. I think that overall an outfield of O'Neil in left and Duran in center is better than Duran in left and Rafaela in center. Also, I do not think there is going to be anyone available this off season that is "like" O'Neil. Finally, I look at your proposed lineup and see several holes. Start with second base where they have maybe the worst production in the majors this year and the guys you have for next year either 1) failed this year or 2) hasn't played a game in the majors. Then there is shortstop where both of the 2 guys you are counting on have been hurt each of the last 2 years withe one of them (Story) not hitting to well in the limited games he has played the last 2 years and the second yet to play in his first major league game. Then there is catcher where Wong is someone who many of the people on this board don't think he can handle the position defensively. That doesn't even count Rafaela and his sub .300 on base percentage. Like you, I still have hope for Grissom, but I would feel much better going into the year knowing O'Neil's bat was in the lineup and Rafaela was insurance in case O'Neil or Story gets hurt again.
|
|
|
Post by tjb21 on Sept 11, 2024 20:20:19 GMT -5
Rafaela is currently running a 2.9 BB%, which would be the worst among qualified hitters by year since 2021. It would be the fourth worst year since 2018. He hasn’t drawn a walk since August 9th, and 4 total since the All star break. I know he is never going to be someone with good swing decisions, but he is never going to be a good or consistent hitter being this extreme. There are only two players that have had a WRC+ above 104 in the bottom 20 of walk percentage since 2018, with 2024 Luis Arraez and 2019 Tim Anderson being those players. My mind continues to stick on who I think will have a higher WRC+ in 2025 between Rafaela and Story.
|
|
abrinker
Rookie
Posts: 41
Member is Online
|
Post by abrinker on Sept 11, 2024 20:55:01 GMT -5
His swing decisions are such trash. Yeah he'll run into one every now and again, but he needs some serious improvement in approach. Honestly, I hope he takes the offseason to reflect on what an abomination his plate discipline is and feels some embarrassment for it. In retrospect, that extension was a might pre-mature and excessive. He's young, I guess, so in theory there's time to improve, but it'll be hard to watch this for 8 years if he doesn't get a clue.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 11, 2024 21:52:01 GMT -5
His swing decisions are such trash. Yeah he'll run into one every now and again, but he needs some serious improvement in approach. Honestly, I hope he takes the offseason to reflect on what an abomination his plate discipline is and feels some embarrassment for it. In retrospect, that extension was a might pre-mature and excessive. He's young, I guess, so in theory there's time to improve, but it'll be hard to watch this for 8 years if he doesn't get a clue. Yeah, a lot of rookies put up 2.9 bWAR partial first seasons.
|
|
abrinker
Rookie
Posts: 41
Member is Online
|
Post by abrinker on Sept 11, 2024 22:19:24 GMT -5
His swing decisions are such trash. Yeah he'll run into one every now and again, but he needs some serious improvement in approach. Honestly, I hope he takes the offseason to reflect on what an abomination his plate discipline is and feels some embarrassment for it. In retrospect, that extension was a might pre-mature and excessive. He's young, I guess, so in theory there's time to improve, but it'll be hard to watch this for 8 years if he doesn't get a clue. Yeah, a lot of rookies put up 2.9 bWAR partial first seasons. Admittedly, my critique was borne out of frustration watching his last at bat tonight, which any objective observer would agree was atrocious (and a reasonable type for his current game). Obviously, his defensive skill is tremendous, and I appreciate his willingness and ability to fill in all over the diamond, but I don’t like his long-term future as a starter if he can’t produce a semblance of a disciplined approach at the plate. Some may say his defensive value is all you need and anything you get at the plate is gravy, but an outfield of Duran in CF, ONeill in LF, and Abreu in RF should provide better overall value. I hope he works to improve, and I’ll happily eat my words if he does, but it’s gonna take the will to change, and with the extension and his everyday starter role, I’m worried he may not feel the urgency to do so.
|
|
|
Post by kingstephanos on Sept 11, 2024 22:30:51 GMT -5
Yeah, a lot of rookies put up 2.9 bWAR partial first seasons. Admittedly, my critique was borne out of frustration watching his last at bat tonight, which any objective observer would agree was atrocious (and a reasonable type for his current game). Obviously, his defensive skill is tremendous, and I appreciate his willingness and ability to fill in all over the diamond, but I don’t like his long-term future as a starter if he can’t produce a semblance of a disciplined approach at the plate. Some may say his defensive value is all you need and anything you get at the plate is gravy, but an outfield of Duran in CF, ONeill in LF, and Abreu in RF should provide better overall value. I hope he works to improve, and I’ll happily eat my words if he does, but it’s gonna take the will to change, and with the extension and his everyday starter role, I’m worried he may not feel the urgency to do so. You have a right to your opinion. Also Rafaela has a robust fWAR of 1.1 Truly JBJing at its best (who was horrible to watch at the plate in most years)
|
|
|
Post by soxpatsceltics on Sept 11, 2024 23:27:52 GMT -5
Admittedly, my critique was borne out of frustration watching his last at bat tonight, which any objective observer would agree was atrocious (and a reasonable type for his current game). Obviously, his defensive skill is tremendous, and I appreciate his willingness and ability to fill in all over the diamond, but I don’t like his long-term future as a starter if he can’t produce a semblance of a disciplined approach at the plate. Some may say his defensive value is all you need and anything you get at the plate is gravy, but an outfield of Duran in CF, ONeill in LF, and Abreu in RF should provide better overall value. I hope he works to improve, and I’ll happily eat my words if he does, but it’s gonna take the will to change, and with the extension and his everyday starter role, I’m worried he may not feel the urgency to do so. You have a right to your opinion. Also Rafaela has a robust fWAR of 1.1 Truly JBJing at its best (who was horrible to watch at the plate in most years) JBJ had a 9.6% BB rate and a .321 OBP in his Red Sox career, even when he was cold he was able to get on base. Rafaela simply does not pass the eye test as a MLB hitter. The fact that he's made zero improvement or even effort to make an improvement despite multiple coaching staffs from A-Ball on emphasizing the importance of keeping swings in zone, speaks to an internal problem that will only be fixed if he chooses to. Right now I think he's on the outside looking in for a starting job next year... at his current offensive capabilities his most valuable role on the 2025 Red Sox is super-utility/defensive replacement, backing up every infield position but 1B and pushing Duran from CF to LF in the 8th or 9th inning in games the Sox lead. Especially with Roman Anthony's timeline sped up this year and Campbell pushing for an MLB spot in Rafaela's 2 most natural positions, 2B and CF. The good thing is that he's got yet another offseason and spring training to try to fix his maddening swing problems but I think at this point the odds that he's either traded because of a roster crunch with prospects or O'Neil accepting a QO or straight up benched next season are greater than the odds of him starting over 120 games next year.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 12, 2024 6:42:52 GMT -5
I've had doubts about Rafaela's offense myself, and the PAs can be maddening, but let's not overreact to a slump. From May 15th to August 15 he had a 107 wRC+ and a .754 OPS. That's half a season. And he's a rookie who has played almost every single game so if he's a little physically or mentally exhausted at this point it wouldn't be surprising.
|
|
redsox04071318champs
Veteran
Always hoping to make my handle even longer...
Posts: 16,483
Member is Online
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 12, 2024 8:18:32 GMT -5
Rafaela is at a place where there are still multiple directions he can go in. He is 23,not a finished product.
He could bust. He could get into a situation where pitchers constantly dont challenge him and simply let him go fish, and allow him to constantly get himself out. This is likely if Rafaela swings at pitches off the plate early in counts. If he constantly gets behind pitchers know they can throw multiple pitches off the plate and sooner or later he'll chase and get himself out. That's a worse case scenario. The OBP would be painfully low and he becomes a defense and speed guy off the bench.
There are scenarios where he gets ahead often enough or gets early count strikes from pitchers where while he wont walk, he can do damage. He could be one of those players with a freak ability to hit strikes or pitches just off the plate that others cant hit. The question about those off the plate pitches that he can reach, how well can he hit those? This is more of the likeliest scenario where he improves enough he can manage a .270 to .280 batting average with 20 HRs plus per year but will barely break a .300 OBP. This is a average-ish offensive player, but useful.
Then theres a scenario where he matures enough that he becomes patient enough not to hack at everything, where hes patient enough to take and get ahead on the count forcing a pitcher to have a choice, see if he fishes and if he doesnt and shows a willingness to take an occasional walk would force the pitcher over the plate where Rafaela could do alot of damage. That scenario makes him an all star.
This is all against a backdrop of excellent defense. I think he's best if he's allowed to concentrate on one position, CF, but necessity could force him to do what he did this year. I suspect with more repetition at SS he could improve and become quite good, but I'm hoping this utility role is something that isnt necessary, that between Campbell and Grissom, 2b finally gets settled and becomes an asset, and that eventually whether its Story or eventually Mayer, SS would be spoken for as well. If he is at 2b, he is being wasted and something went terribly wrong.
There are still multiple pathways of what Rafaela will be.
My best guess is that his bat to ball skills continue to improve and that he develops just enough patience to allow him to get enough strikes to hit, but that he will not likely develop enough patience to be the all star plus that he could be.
So I'm thinking he is JBJ with a better batting average and a lower OBP, similar power or even more and with more speed. An asset. Esoecially at his price tag, but not somebody that should be batting toward the top or middle of the batting order.
|
|
|
Post by Darwin's Curve on Sept 12, 2024 10:04:57 GMT -5
The good thing is that he's got yet another offseason and spring training to try to fix his maddening swing problems but I think at this point the odds that he's either traded because of a roster crunch with prospects or O'Neil accepting a QO or straight up benched next season are greater than the odds of him starting over 120 games next year. Cora is vanishingly unlikely to bench him. He's more likely to do as he has done. In the thick of a post-season race, where every win is vital, CR's only gotten a handful of days off since his deep slump began around a month ago. Granted, almost all of those starts have been at SS. But they're clearly willing to live with his bat in the lineup every day.
|
|
|
Post by bluechip on Sept 12, 2024 10:11:55 GMT -5
Rafaela is at a place where there are still multiple directions he can go in. He is 23,not a finished product. He could bust. He could get into a situation where pitchers constantly dont challenge him and simply let him go fish, and allow him to constantly get himself out. This is likely if Rafaela swings at pitches off the plate early in counts. If he constantly gets behind pitchers know they can throw multiple pitches off the plate and sooner or later he'll chase and get himself out. That's a worse case scenario. The OBP would be painfully low and he becomes a defense and speed guy off the bench. There are scenarios where he gets ahead often enough or gets early count strikes from pitchers where while he wont walk, he can do damage. He could be one of those players with a freak ability to hit strikes or pitches just off the plate that others cant hit. The question about those off the plate pitches that he can reach, how well can he hit those? This is more of the likeliest scenario where he improves enough he can manage a .270 to .280 batting average with 20 HRs plus per year but will barely break a .300 OBP. This is a average-ish offensive player, but useful. Then theres a scenario where he matures enough that he becomes patient enough not to hack at everything, where hes patient enough to take and get ahead on the count forcing a pitcher to have a choice, see if he fishes and if he doesnt and shows a willingness to take an occasional walk would force the pitcher over the plate where Rafaela could do alot of damage. That scenario makes him an all star. This is all against a backdrop of excellent defense. I think he's best if he's allowed to concentrate on one position, CF, but necessity could force him to do what he did this year. I suspect with more repetition at SS he could improve and become quite good, but I'm hoping this utility role is something that isnt necessary, that between Campbell and Grissom, 2b finally gets settled and becomes an asset, and that eventually whether its Story or eventually Mayer, SS would be spoken for as well. If he is at 2b, he is being wasted and something went terribly wrong. There are still multiple pathways of what Rafaela will be. My best guess is that his bat to ball skills continue to improve and that he develops just enough patience to allow him to get enough strikes to hit, but that he will not likely develop enough patience to be the all star plus that he could be. So I'm thinking he is JBJ with a better batting average and a lower OBP, similar power or even more and with more speed. An asset. Esoecially at his price tag, but not somebody that should be batting toward the top or middle of the batting order. The issue with Rafaela, at least from my prospective, is that for him to have value he needs to play the outfield, specifically center field. Many of the Red Sox best offensive players also play the outfield. Duran is an 8 win player. He is playing everyday. Anthony is the best prospect in baseball, when he arrives, he is playing every day. So that is two of your three outfield slots. So he is competing with three guys for playing time: 1) Campbell: You want Campbell to play second, but there is a nonzero chance he ends up in the outfield. 2) Grissom: Grissom still has extreme upside. He lost the entire 2024 year though. If Campbell is at second, Grissom might end up in left, which is where the Braves were going to move him prior to trading him. If he sticks at second, he likely forces Campbell to left. 3) Abreu: does not have the upside of Anthony or Campbell. But a very solid player. The current right fielder. At the end of the day, Anthony is taking the job or Rafaela or Abreu. Depending on how things shake out with Campbell and Grissom, both might be relegated to the bench.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 12, 2024 10:22:07 GMT -5
The good thing is that he's got yet another offseason and spring training to try to fix his maddening swing problems but I think at this point the odds that he's either traded because of a roster crunch with prospects or O'Neil accepting a QO or straight up benched next season are greater than the odds of him starting over 120 games next year. Cora is vanishingly unlikely to bench him. He's more likely to do as he has done. In the thick of a post-season race, where every win is vital, CR's only gotten a handful of days off since his deep slump began around a month ago. Granted, almost all of those starts have been at SS. But they're clearly willing to live with his bat in the lineup every day. A good offense can carry his bat in the 9 hole every day. The problem comes when he's one of like 4 guys not hitting at the bottom of the order (not to mention the top as has been the case in September).
|
|
|
Post by maxwellsdemon on Sept 12, 2024 13:08:36 GMT -5
I did enjoy the irony of this most recent disparaging of Ceddanne (I've had enough of his at bats and the like) just as he begins to emerge froma a slump with a game winner and a go ahead rbi. The kid has played out of position most of the year and, as I've said before, find a better 9th (as in worst) hitter. Some mentioned Duran who has broken out in the past year and a half and this year is playing good CF. Imagine now how you'd feel with today's CF play and 2 years ago hitting when he was 26 (Ceddanne plus 3). Even in JD's 2023 half season he had a 25%k rate versus CD's 26% now. Comparing Ceddanne's rookie batting to JBJ's hitting in his prime after several MLB seasons is sophistry at its finest and JBJ never had to play most of a season out of position. I think I'm done defending Rafaela with the same old premature pronunciations about his failures and I'll just wait to see if he becomes an overall averagish regular or borderline All Star. As for whether it's Rafaela versus Abreu for the starting third OF, get back to me when Wilyer learns to hit lefties (or can play 2b). This last was snark in case that wasn't obvious.
|
|
|
Post by puzzler on Sept 12, 2024 13:27:45 GMT -5
Rafaela is at a place where there are still multiple directions he can go in. He is 23,not a finished product. He could bust. He could get into a situation where pitchers constantly dont challenge him and simply let him go fish, and allow him to constantly get himself out. This is likely if Rafaela swings at pitches off the plate early in counts. If he constantly gets behind pitchers know they can throw multiple pitches off the plate and sooner or later he'll chase and get himself out. That's a worse case scenario. The OBP would be painfully low and he becomes a defense and speed guy off the bench. There are scenarios where he gets ahead often enough or gets early count strikes from pitchers where while he wont walk, he can do damage. He could be one of those players with a freak ability to hit strikes or pitches just off the plate that others cant hit. The question about those off the plate pitches that he can reach, how well can he hit those? This is more of the likeliest scenario where he improves enough he can manage a .270 to .280 batting average with 20 HRs plus per year but will barely break a .300 OBP. This is a average-ish offensive player, but useful. Then theres a scenario where he matures enough that he becomes patient enough not to hack at everything, where hes patient enough to take and get ahead on the count forcing a pitcher to have a choice, see if he fishes and if he doesnt and shows a willingness to take an occasional walk would force the pitcher over the plate where Rafaela could do alot of damage. That scenario makes him an all star. This is all against a backdrop of excellent defense. I think he's best if he's allowed to concentrate on one position, CF, but necessity could force him to do what he did this year. I suspect with more repetition at SS he could improve and become quite good, but I'm hoping this utility role is something that isnt necessary, that between Campbell and Grissom, 2b finally gets settled and becomes an asset, and that eventually whether its Story or eventually Mayer, SS would be spoken for as well. If he is at 2b, he is being wasted and something went terribly wrong. There are still multiple pathways of what Rafaela will be. My best guess is that his bat to ball skills continue to improve and that he develops just enough patience to allow him to get enough strikes to hit, but that he will not likely develop enough patience to be the all star plus that he could be. So I'm thinking he is JBJ with a better batting average and a lower OBP, similar power or even more and with more speed. An asset. Esoecially at his price tag, but not somebody that should be batting toward the top or middle of the batting order. The issue with Rafaela, at least from my prospective, is that for him to have value he needs to play the outfield, specifically center field. Many of the Red Sox best offensive players also play the outfield. Duran is an 8 win player. He is playing everyday. Anthony is the best prospect in baseball, when he arrives, he is playing every day. So that is two of your three outfield slots. So he is competing with three guys for playing time: 1) Campbell: You want Campbell to play second, but there is a nonzero chance he ends up in the outfield. 2) Grissom: Grissom still has extreme upside. He lost the entire 2024 year though. If Campbell is at second, Grissom might end up in left, which is where the Braves were going to move him prior to trading him. If he sticks at second, he likely forces Campbell to left. 3) Abreu: does not have the upside of Anthony or Campbell. But a very solid player. The current right fielder. At the end of the day, Anthony is taking the job or Rafaela or Abreu. Depending on how things shake out with Campbell and Grissom, both might be relegated to the bench. We're the worst defense in all of baseball in 2024. No matter what happens between now and the end of the year, that won't change. It's not lost on me the silliness of expecting two guys who profile as average at best defenders to push out our very best defensive outfielder in 2025. Can the Red Sox afford to subtract defense from an already terrible defensive team?
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Sept 12, 2024 13:40:17 GMT -5
The issue with Rafaela, at least from my prospective, is that for him to have value he needs to play the outfield, specifically center field. Many of the Red Sox best offensive players also play the outfield. Duran is an 8 win player. He is playing everyday. Anthony is the best prospect in baseball, when he arrives, he is playing every day. So that is two of your three outfield slots. So he is competing with three guys for playing time: 1) Campbell: You want Campbell to play second, but there is a nonzero chance he ends up in the outfield. 2) Grissom: Grissom still has extreme upside. He lost the entire 2024 year though. If Campbell is at second, Grissom might end up in left, which is where the Braves were going to move him prior to trading him. If he sticks at second, he likely forces Campbell to left. 3) Abreu: does not have the upside of Anthony or Campbell. But a very solid player. The current right fielder. At the end of the day, Anthony is taking the job or Rafaela or Abreu. Depending on how things shake out with Campbell and Grissom, both might be relegated to the bench. We're the worst defense in all of baseball in 2024. No matter what happens between now and the end of the year, that won't change. It's not lost on me the silliness of expecting two guys who profile as average at best defenders to push out our very best defensive outfielder in 2025. Can the Red Sox afford to subtract defense from an already terrible defensive team? a) That's not true. They're 23rd out of 30 by OAA, and... 6th best by DRS? (Wait, is that right? Really?)
b) To the extent it is true Rafaela has been more of a problem than a solution; he's at -3 OAA, broken down as -7 at SS and +4 in CF. (DRS likes him better, but DRS also thinks the Red Sox are just fine on defense, so...) If what you're saying is that they can't afford not to make him the everyday centerfielder... they actually can, because Duran has actually been better than Rafaela by both OAA and DRS in CF. Abreu has also been roughly as valuable for his outfield defense as Rafaela has been.
The low hanging fruit for improving the defense next year is that Story (and Maybe Mayer) will be replacing... Rafaela at SS.
|
|
|
Post by bishop on Sept 12, 2024 13:54:58 GMT -5
The issue with Rafaela, at least from my prospective, is that for him to have value he needs to play the outfield, specifically center field. Many of the Red Sox best offensive players also play the outfield. Duran is an 8 win player. He is playing everyday. Anthony is the best prospect in baseball, when he arrives, he is playing every day. So that is two of your three outfield slots. So he is competing with three guys for playing time: 1) Campbell: You want Campbell to play second, but there is a nonzero chance he ends up in the outfield. 2) Grissom: Grissom still has extreme upside. He lost the entire 2024 year though. If Campbell is at second, Grissom might end up in left, which is where the Braves were going to move him prior to trading him. If he sticks at second, he likely forces Campbell to left. 3) Abreu: does not have the upside of Anthony or Campbell. But a very solid player. The current right fielder. At the end of the day, Anthony is taking the job or Rafaela or Abreu. Depending on how things shake out with Campbell and Grissom, both might be relegated to the bench. Why? A super utility guy who can fill in or give occasional days off while also being a defensive replacement or pinch runner off the bench would be awesome. I won't even include Romy, Grissom, Story, Dom Smith and it may be unfair to include the 3rd string catchers but we've given 761 plate appearances to Pablo Reyes, Nick Sogard, Tyler Heineman, Danny Jansen, Enmanuel Valdez, Danny Jansen, Zach Short, Jamie Westbrook, Mickey Gaspar, Garrett Cooper & Bobby Dalbec. I'd be ecstatic if 500 of those went to Ceddanne while "his" "starting" ones went to Anthony or Campbell. Injuries happen, just ask Trevor Story, Vaughan Grissom & Marcelo Mayer who are probably part of the puzzle I hope Rafaela is providing cover for next season. Anthony is taking Abreu's job.
|
|
|
Post by wanderingdude on Sept 12, 2024 14:13:32 GMT -5
The issue with Rafaela, at least from my prospective, is that for him to have value he needs to play the outfield, specifically center field. Many of the Red Sox best offensive players also play the outfield. Duran is an 8 win player. He is playing everyday. Anthony is the best prospect in baseball, when he arrives, he is playing every day. So that is two of your three outfield slots. So he is competing with three guys for playing time: 1) Campbell: You want Campbell to play second, but there is a nonzero chance he ends up in the outfield. 2) Grissom: Grissom still has extreme upside. He lost the entire 2024 year though. If Campbell is at second, Grissom might end up in left, which is where the Braves were going to move him prior to trading him. If he sticks at second, he likely forces Campbell to left. 3) Abreu: does not have the upside of Anthony or Campbell. But a very solid player. The current right fielder. At the end of the day, Anthony is taking the job or Rafaela or Abreu. Depending on how things shake out with Campbell and Grissom, both might be relegated to the bench. Why? A super utility guy who can fill in or give occasional days off while also being a defensive replacement or pinch runner off the bench would be awesome. I won't even include Romy, Grissom, Story, Dom Smith and it may be unfair to include the 3rd string catchers but we've given 761 plate appearances to Pablo Reyes, Nick Sogard, Tyler Heineman, Danny Jansen, Enmanuel Valdez, Danny Jansen, Zach Short, Jamie Westbrook, Mickey Gaspar, Garrett Cooper & Bobby Dalbec. I'd be ecstatic if 500 of those went to Ceddanne while "his" "starting" ones went to Anthony or Campbell. Injuries happen, just ask Trevor Story, Vaughan Grissom & Marcelo Mayer who are probably part of the puzzle I hope Rafaela is providing cover for next season. Anthony is taking Abreu's job. … why can’t anthony and abreu co-exist? Anthony - Duran - Abreu alignment is an absolutely awesome outfield with all of them being above average in both sides of the ball (hopefully). Also, i don’t want it to seem like i’m disparaging Rafaela. He obviously has talent, there is just a very big flaw that he’s going to need to improve. I don’t need him to turn into Juan Soto, but can we just get the chase and walk rates from the literal worst in the league to merely below average? If the Duran trade to the Padres went through in spring or Duran regressed defensively to 21-22 levels we would be penciling him into the everyday CF next year. However, that didn’t happen and he’s going to have to be a better hitter to warrant playing time over our outfield options. We’ll see who gets traded if they do, but as is i don’t know that he’s an everyday player next year with everyone healthy and still here.
|
|
|