SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
|
Post by James Dunne on Aug 5, 2022 22:08:48 GMT -5
I guess the important thing is that bat speed isn't the same thing as a hit tool at all. Albert Pujols famously had below-average bat speed but made up for it by being so quick to the ball, always having his hands in good positioning, incredible pitch recognition and plate discipline, etc.
It also took me some figuring out that you're comparing him to Will Middlebrooks. While Middlebrooks reached #1 at a time when the system was down (he graduated **just** as Bogaerts was starting to take off and Mookie Betts was about to begin his season Lowell), he absolutely would not have been #1 in the current system. He was never Top-50 in the game, while Mayer is pushing top-10 and Casas and Bello should both be top-30. But, playing out to your conclusion.... Will Middlebrooks did not turn into a good major league baseball player.
Short version: Middlebrooks' prospect status 11 years ago was closer to Rafaela's today than it is to Mayer's.
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 5, 2022 23:12:07 GMT -5
I guess the important thing is that bat speed isn't the same thing as a hit tool at all. Albert Pujols famously had below-average bat speed but made up for it by being so quick to the ball, always having his hands in good positioning, incredible pitch recognition and plate discipline, etc. It also took me some figuring out that you're comparing him to Will Middlebrooks. While Middlebrooks reached #1 at a time when the system was down (he graduated **just** as Bogaerts was starting to take off and Mookie Betts was about to begin his season Lowell), he absolutely would not have been #1 in the current system. He was never Top-50 in the game, while Mayer is pushing top-10 and Casas and Bello should both be top-30. But, playing out to your conclusion.... Will Middlebrooks did not turn into a good major league baseball player. Short version: Middlebrooks' prospect status 11 years ago was closer to Rafaela's today than it is to Mayer's. I'm glad you got it. And yes, that was the point I was making. BA had the Red Sox ranked 9th at the end of the 2011 season and Middlebrooks was between 52 and 56 by Fangraphs, Baseball America and MLB.com. I agree that if he were in the system now he wouldn't have been #1, but I'm willing to bet he would be ahead of Yorke at #4. I'm not trying to put pressure on you to rank him higher, just noting that it seems his size and previous low prospect status has led him to be ranked lower within the scouting community than he would be if those weren't the case. I made the post simply because I saw Middlebrooks' numbers and was surprised how close they were to Rafaela's numbers. I'm not sure I get your Pujols reference, he was a bit of a freak in terms of success, a promotion straight from A-ball and debate over his true age. Are you implying that Rafaela doesn't have 'quick to the ball and hand positioning' skills? I haven't heard that to this point. Also, I'm a little confused by 'bat speed isn't the same thing as hit tool' - isn't bat speed one major contributor to 'hit tool'? Edit: was a bit confused by the nature of your post and after re-reading my post I now realize that 'talking about him as best prospect' can seem like I'm implying that 'he is the best prospect', which was not my point. Simply implying that a fresh look at him may put him 'in the running'. IMO he's top-5, based on the numbers and the scouting reports I've seen (although you may have more accurate/recent reports or first-hand knowledge)
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Aug 5, 2022 23:28:49 GMT -5
Rafaela isn't as consistent turning his bat speed into hard contact. Someone with a better scouting eye than I have can probably better explain why in better detail. Pujols was just the first player I thought of as a counter to the bat speed example rather than hit tool. It's just one component.
Yorke was 31st in BA and 40th in BPro headed into this year. He's had a rough season, largely due to injuries, but it probably going to be in the Top 70 again. I'd be a little surprised if Bleis isn't in that range on most Top 100 lists in the offseason too. Mata could sneak into the top 100. 2011-12 offseason Middlebrooks would be somewhere in the group. He got off to that great start in 2012 and probably would have edged past them. The Red Sox organizational ranking at that point had everything to do with depth. They'd just had that strong 2011 draft, and while they didn't have anyone in the Top 50, they had a whole bunch of guys in that 50 to 200 range. We had Swihart 10th in the system, BA had him in the top 75 in the game.
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Aug 5, 2022 23:36:28 GMT -5
Rafaela isn't as consistent turning his bat speed into hard contact. Someone with a better scouting eye than I have can probably better explain why in better detail. Pujols was just the first player I thought of as a counter to the bat speed example rather than hit tool. It's just one component. Yorke was 31st in BA and 40th in BPro headed into this year. He's had a rough season, largely due to injuries, but it probably going to be in the Top 70 again. I'd be a little surprised if Bleis isn't in that range on most Top 100 lists in the offseason too. Mata could sneak into the top 100. 2011-12 offseason Middlebrooks would be somewhere in the group. He got off to that great start in 2012 and probably would have edged past them. The Red Sox organizational ranking at that point had everything to do with depth. They'd just had that strong 2011 draft, and while they didn't have anyone in the Top 50, they had a whole bunch of guys in that 50 to 200 range. We had Swihart 10th in the system, BA had him in the top 75 in the game. I’d imagine the soft contact is because he still is figuring out his approach and makes contact on pitchers pitches that he’d be better off taking. Just spitballing though I don’t really know what’s going on there lol
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Aug 6, 2022 9:29:34 GMT -5
Also, keep in mind that High-A to High-A comparison isn't apples to apples - Greenville is a much friendlier hitting environment than Salem.
(By the way, just as a point of information, Low-A is typically denoted as "A," not "A-". That notation was used for Short-season. Was clear here, but just to avoid any future confusion!)
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
|
Post by radiohix on Aug 6, 2022 10:14:36 GMT -5
Rafaela isn't as consistent turning his bat speed into hard contact. Someone with a better scouting eye than I have can probably better explain why in better detail. Pujols was just the first player I thought of as a counter to the bat speed example rather than hit tool. It's just one component. Yorke was 31st in BA and 40th in BPro headed into this year. He's had a rough season, largely due to injuries, but it probably going to be in the Top 70 again. I'd be a little surprised if Bleis isn't in that range on most Top 100 lists in the offseason too. Mata could sneak into the top 100. 2011-12 offseason Middlebrooks would be somewhere in the group. He got off to that great start in 2012 and probably would have edged past them. The Red Sox organizational ranking at that point had everything to do with depth. They'd just had that strong 2011 draft, and while they didn't have anyone in the Top 50, they had a whole bunch of guys in that 50 to 200 range. We had Swihart 10th in the system, BA had him in the top 75 in the game. I’d imagine the soft contact is because he still is figuring out his approach and makes contact on pitchers pitches that he’d be better off taking. Just spitballing though I don’t really know what’s going on there lol His chase% is very high (41.2%) that’s in the 15 percentile. He’s been over performing (wOBA .399) his batted balls data (xwOBA .367) He walked 4 times in his last 7 games so maybe he’s figuring things out though. Definitely a work in progress and shouldn’t be in the MLB OF conversation for next season till maybe later in September.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 6, 2022 10:20:37 GMT -5
I noticed some statistical similarities of these two players earlier today and thought others may find this interesting: Rafaela (Field: 60, Arm: 60, Speed: 60, Bat-Speed: 60): Age 20 (A-): .251/.305/.424, 10 HR, 23 SB, 5.8% BB, 18.3% K (432 PA) Age 21 (A+): .330/.368/.594, 9 HR, 13 SB, 4.8% BB, 24.4% K (209 PA) Age 21 (AA): .285/.331/.521, 8 HR, 8 SB, 4.5%, 20.1% K (179 PA) Player A (Field: 55-60, Arm: 65, Speed: 50, Bat-Speed: 60): Age 21 (A+): .276/.331/.439, 12 HR, 5 SB, 7.3% BB, 25.2% K (481 PA) Age 22 (AA): .302/.345/.520, 18 HR, 6 SB, 5.3% BB, 23.9% K (397 PA) Rafaela is almost exactly 1 year younger in the shown seasons. The main things separating these players is the size, 5'8" 152 lbs compared to 6'4" 200 lbs and the positions SS/CF to 3B. I wonder, if it wasn't for his size and his multi-position usage, would we be talking about Rafaela as the best prospect in the system? Does his lack of size validate his less heralded status? ( obviously we would all rather be 6'4" than 5'8" - I speak from experience) Pretty much destroyed my potential NBA career. Well, that and not being able to hit the J, the 3 or foul shots, all despite a rather impressive vertical leap (I could touch the rim from a standing jump but clanged the jam on a running jump if I was using anything other than a tennis ball). To make matters more frustrating, all the men in my family are 6 feet tall or well over. I am the only one less than. 25+ years later, still waiting for that "growth spurt" the doctors all said I would have in high school.
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Aug 6, 2022 10:43:21 GMT -5
Rafaela hitting like Will Middlebrooks in the majors sounds like a pretty good guess to me TBH
He'd earn himself a lot of service time in the majors if he could manage that
|
|
|
Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 6, 2022 11:05:49 GMT -5
Rafaela isn't as consistent turning his bat speed into hard contact. Someone with a better scouting eye than I have can probably better explain why in better detail. Pujols was just the first player I thought of as a counter to the bat speed example rather than hit tool. It's just one component. Yorke was 31st in BA and 40th in BPro headed into this year. He's had a rough season, largely due to injuries, but it probably going to be in the Top 70 again. I'd be a little surprised if Bleis isn't in that range on most Top 100 lists in the offseason too. Mata could sneak into the top 100. 2011-12 offseason Middlebrooks would be somewhere in the group. He got off to that great start in 2012 and probably would have edged past them. The Red Sox organizational ranking at that point had everything to do with depth. They'd just had that strong 2011 draft, and while they didn't have anyone in the Top 50, they had a whole bunch of guys in that 50 to 200 range. We had Swihart 10th in the system, BA had him in the top 75 in the game. Why are you 'counter'ing bat speed? Do you not think there's value in the measure? Or don't agree with comparing bat speeds of two players? I was attempting to show similarities between two players who seem very different at first glance - that's why I added bat speed (and because his SoxProspects.com profile doesn't specifically note Middlebrooks' 'hit tool'). It seems like you're saying that although Middlebrooks and Rafaela have/had similar raw bat speed, Middlebrooks made more consistent hard contact than Rafaela - is that right? Do you think that Rafaela is in the same category as Bleis, Yorke and Mata - or do you have him squarely behind those 3? Given the Red Sox need at CF, I'm very excited about Rafaela's improvements and I'm hopeful that he can provide a level of performance akin to JBJ (not making a comp). Probably a bit too optimistic, but what's the fun if we're not being optimistic about the prosects?
|
|
|
Post by fenwaydouble on Aug 6, 2022 11:20:49 GMT -5
Rafaela isn't as consistent turning his bat speed into hard contact. Someone with a better scouting eye than I have can probably better explain why in better detail. Pujols was just the first player I thought of as a counter to the bat speed example rather than hit tool. It's just one component. Yorke was 31st in BA and 40th in BPro headed into this year. He's had a rough season, largely due to injuries, but it probably going to be in the Top 70 again. I'd be a little surprised if Bleis isn't in that range on most Top 100 lists in the offseason too. Mata could sneak into the top 100. 2011-12 offseason Middlebrooks would be somewhere in the group. He got off to that great start in 2012 and probably would have edged past them. The Red Sox organizational ranking at that point had everything to do with depth. They'd just had that strong 2011 draft, and while they didn't have anyone in the Top 50, they had a whole bunch of guys in that 50 to 200 range. We had Swihart 10th in the system, BA had him in the top 75 in the game. Why are you 'counter'ing bat speed? Do you not think there's value in the measure? Or don't agree with comparing bat speeds of two players? I was attempting to show similarities between two players who seem very different at first glance - that's why I added bat speed (and because his SoxProspects.com profile doesn't specifically note Middlebrooks' 'hit tool'). It seems like you're saying that although Middlebrooks and Rafaela have/had similar raw bat speed, Middlebrooks made more consistent hard contact than Rafaela - is that right? Do you think that Rafaela is in the same category as Bleis, Yorke and Mata - or do you have him squarely behind those 3? Given the Red Sox need at CF, I'm very excited about Rafaela's improvements and I'm hopeful that he can provide a level of performance akin to JBJ (not making a comp). Probably a bit too optimistic, but what's the fun if we're not being optimistic about the prosects? I don’t really care about the Middlebrooks comp, but if if you’re comparing Rafaela to Mayer or Casas bat speed is just largely irrelevant to me. There are serious red flags with Rafaela’s approach that imo puts a way lower ceiling on his potential than Mayer has. There are just really few elite players that walk as little as he does.
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 6, 2022 12:23:16 GMT -5
I’d imagine the soft contact is because he still is figuring out his approach and makes contact on pitchers pitches that he’d be better off taking. Just spitballing though I don’t really know what’s going on there lol His chase% is very high (41.2%) that’s in the 15 percentile. He’s been over performing (wOBA .399) his batted balls data (xwOBA .367)He walked 4 times in his last 7 games so maybe he’s figuring things out though. Definitely a work in progress and shouldn’t be in the MLB OF conversation for next season till maybe later in September. Good points here, but you'd expect him to overperform his xwOBA given his speed. Even a 30 point overperformance might be reasonable. Trevory Story, for instance, has overperformed his xwOBA by like 25 points in his career.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Aug 6, 2022 13:27:32 GMT -5
I’d imagine the soft contact is because he still is figuring out his approach and makes contact on pitchers pitches that he’d be better off taking. Just spitballing though I don’t really know what’s going on there lol His chase% is very high (41.2%) that’s in the 15 percentile. He’s been over performing (wOBA .399) his batted balls data (xwOBA .367) He walked 4 times in his last 7 games so maybe he’s figuring things out though. Definitely a work in progress and shouldn’t be in the MLB OF conversation for next season till maybe later in September. Where can you look up his xwOBA
|
|
|
Post by larrycook on Aug 6, 2022 14:01:58 GMT -5
Rafaela has been in a bit of a slump lately.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
|
Post by radiohix on Aug 6, 2022 17:42:45 GMT -5
His chase% is very high (41.2%) that’s in the 15 percentile. He’s been over performing (wOBA .399) his batted balls data (xwOBA .367) He walked 4 times in his last 7 games so maybe he’s figuring things out though. Definitely a work in progress and shouldn’t be in the MLB OF conversation for next season till maybe later in September. Where can you look up his xwOBA
|
|
|
Post by incandenza on Aug 6, 2022 18:22:12 GMT -5
That puts it in a pretty stark light that the final piece of the puzzle for him is managing the strike zone.
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Aug 6, 2022 20:32:21 GMT -5
Where can you look up his xwOBA
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 7, 2022 6:12:15 GMT -5
Your 2023 starting SS.
|
|
|
Post by telson13 on Aug 7, 2022 10:32:04 GMT -5
That puts it in a pretty stark light that the final piece of the puzzle for him is managing the strike zone. With Luis Robert as a comp...pretty high praise. He's a massive outlier, too, on chase rate, so even comparatively small improvements might make for substantial gains. Along the lines of Bogey's learning to cope with the SL on the outside, Ceddanne learning selective aggression might eventually make him a 125-140 wRC+ guy, which equates to huge value if his defensive chops are as advertised.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Aug 7, 2022 10:38:20 GMT -5
Rafaela hitting like Will Middlebrooks in the majors sounds like a pretty good guess to me TBH He'd earn himself a lot of service time in the majors if he could manage that Let's not forget Jenny Dell!
|
|
|
Post by bosoxnation on Aug 7, 2022 10:44:01 GMT -5
Rafaela hitting like Will Middlebrooks in the majors sounds like a pretty good guess to me TBH He'd earn himself a lot of service time in the majors if he could manage that Let's not forget Jenny Dell! Jennifer Sheryl Dell–Middlebrooks
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 7, 2022 11:07:27 GMT -5
Let's not forget Jenny Dell! Jennifer Sheryl Dell–Middlebrooks Kasey McDonnell (I think that was her name) worked at NESN for a little while and I think she is married (or dating? - too lazy to look it up) to Eric Hosmer.
|
|
radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
|
Post by radiohix on Aug 7, 2022 12:14:42 GMT -5
That puts it in a pretty stark light that the final piece of the puzzle for him is managing the strike zone. With Luis Robert as a comp...pretty high praise. He's a massive outlier, too, on chase rate, so even comparatively small improvements might make for substantial gains. Along the lines of Bogey's learning to cope with the SL on the outside, Ceddanne learning selective aggression might eventually make him a 125-140 wRC+ guy, which equates to huge value if his defensive chops are as advertised. For the best fielder in all MiLB, I'll be very happy with a 92 wRC+
|
|
nomar
Veteran
Posts: 11,501
|
Post by nomar on Aug 7, 2022 14:06:33 GMT -5
That puts it in a pretty stark light that the final piece of the puzzle for him is managing the strike zone. With Luis Robert as a comp...pretty high praise. He's a massive outlier, too, on chase rate, so even comparatively small improvements might make for substantial gains. Along the lines of Bogey's learning to cope with the SL on the outside, Ceddanne learning selective aggression might eventually make him a 125-140 wRC+ guy, which equates to huge value if his defensive chops are as advertised. If he ends up even at the low end of that range (very unlikely IMO), with his glove in CF he’s one of the best players in baseball. 110 would be amazing alone, but 125+ would be incredible.
|
|
|
Post by ematz1423 on Aug 7, 2022 16:44:37 GMT -5
With Luis Robert as a comp...pretty high praise. He's a massive outlier, too, on chase rate, so even comparatively small improvements might make for substantial gains. Along the lines of Bogey's learning to cope with the SL on the outside, Ceddanne learning selective aggression might eventually make him a 125-140 wRC+ guy, which equates to huge value if his defensive chops are as advertised. If he ends up even at the low end of that range (very unlikely IMO), with his glove in CF he’s one of the best players in baseball. 110 would be amazing alone, but 125+ would be incredible. Yes, this. Hell the way his defense sounds at multiple positions up the middle if his bat is literally in the 90 wrc range he's a valuable player. Obviously hoping for more but his defense really raises his floor in my mind.
|
|
|
Post by jaffinator on Aug 7, 2022 17:21:58 GMT -5
With Luis Robert as a comp...pretty high praise. He's a massive outlier, too, on chase rate, so even comparatively small improvements might make for substantial gains. Along the lines of Bogey's learning to cope with the SL on the outside, Ceddanne learning selective aggression might eventually make him a 125-140 wRC+ guy, which equates to huge value if his defensive chops are as advertised. For the best fielder in all MiLB, I'll be very happy with a 92 wRC+ Feels like catchers are almost in their own category on this.
|
|
|