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Chasing a Gold Glover: Ceddanne Rafaela
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,659
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Post by cdj on Aug 7, 2022 20:01:38 GMT -5
Probably a 4 WAR guy with a 92 wRC+
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Aug 11, 2022 11:15:40 GMT -5
Rafaela has now played 45 games at each level Level | PAs | BB% | K% | IsoP | Advanced A | 209 | 4.8% | 24.4% | .264 | Double A | 200 | 6.0% | 21.9% | .227 |
Pretty remarkable: Making the biggest jump in the minors and still improving your contact and plate discipline numbers while maintaining well above avg power numbers is quite a #feat…just ask Alex Binelas.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,838
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 11, 2022 13:17:38 GMT -5
Rafaela has now played 45 games at each level Level | PAs | BB% | K% | IsoP | Advanced A | 209 | 4.8% | 24.4% | .264 | Double A | 200 | 6.0% | 21.9% | .227 |
Pretty remarkable: Making the biggest jump in the minors and still improving your contact and plate discipline numbers while maintaining well above avg power numbers is quite a #feat…just ask Alex Binelas. I'm a huge fan of this guy, and without a doubt been very disappointed with Binelas. The strikeouts are crazy bad. Sure would be nice for him to have a good 2 last weeks and go into off season feeling better. I admit I loved the trade for Hamilton, Bradley and him, but it has been a real downer. Binelas has such power but making so little contact will never work.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 11, 2022 18:50:47 GMT -5
I mean, Binelas made his pro debut this time last year so it’s still super really. Impressive that he’s in AA already
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Aug 12, 2022 6:58:35 GMT -5
Just to be clear, I mentioned Binelas as an example of how hard the jump from high A to AA is: Hitters face pitchers with better stuff coupled with better control and command so they walk less, strike out more and hit for less power when making contact. I really like Binelas and I think that making it to AA a year after being drafted is a good accomplishment.
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Post by carmenfanzone on Aug 15, 2022 16:34:14 GMT -5
Rafaela has now played 45 games at each level Level | PAs | BB% | K% | IsoP | Advanced A | 209 | 4.8% | 24.4% | .264 | Double A | 200 | 6.0% | 21.9% | .227 |
Pretty remarkable: Making the biggest jump in the minors and still improving your contact and plate discipline numbers while maintaining well above avg power numbers is quite a #feat…just ask Alex Binelas. I'm a huge fan of this guy, and without a doubt been very disappointed with Binelas. The strikeouts are crazy bad. Sure would be nice for him to have a good 2 last weeks and go into off season feeling better. I admit I loved the trade for Hamilton, Bradley and him, but it has been a real downer. Binelas has such power but making so little contact will never work. Given he has 200 plate appearances in AA already with a couple of weeks to go, I would be tempted to start him in AAA next year barring a complete collapse at the end of this year or a major injury. That way maybe he might be ready by the all start break. (of course there are no guarantees - see Cases).
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Post by seamus on Aug 15, 2022 16:46:31 GMT -5
I would bet he starts next year in Portland, with the plan being to promote him to Worcester in June if all goes well. He could get potentially get a cup of coffee late in the year, but otherwise I expect they want him on track to compete for a spot on the 26-man roster going into 2024. Given that they should be bringing in reinforcements at the big league level for the outfield (e.g. Nimmo, Haniger) and pushing Duran to the 4th OF role, there shouldn't be any pressure for Rafaela to be ready by the 2023 All-Star break. One of the problems this year was that the Red Sox decided to roll with Dalbec at first, hoping his 2021 second half would carry over, with the idea that Casas would come up mid-year, but that didn't pan out. I don't think they'll want to put themselves in a position where they're counting on Rafaela to debut in 2023 unless everything either goes really, really right or really, really wrong.
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Post by larrycook on Aug 15, 2022 17:32:34 GMT -5
Rafeala’s defense is worth the price of admission!
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 15, 2022 17:57:38 GMT -5
Rafeala’s defense is worth the price of admission! And, will lower our oitcher’s anxiety with him patrolling CF
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Post by larrycook on Aug 15, 2022 21:21:22 GMT -5
Rafeala’s defense is worth the price of admission! And, will lower our oitcher’s anxiety with him patrolling CF In 2023 or 2024?
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Post by iliketacos on Aug 15, 2022 22:00:02 GMT -5
His bat is already good enough for AAA. He starts in Worcester no doubt next year. Will probably be your CF by the All-Star break for the Red Sox.
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Post by iliketacos on Aug 15, 2022 22:07:34 GMT -5
I would bet he starts next year in Portland, with the plan being to promote him to Worcester in June if all goes well. He could get potentially get a cup of coffee late in the year, but otherwise I expect they want him on track to compete for a spot on the 26-man roster going into 2024. Given that they should be bringing in reinforcements at the big league level for the outfield (e.g. Nimmo, Haniger) and pushing Duran to the 4th OF role, there shouldn't be any pressure for Rafaela to be ready by the 2023 All-Star break. One of the problems this year was that the Red Sox decided to roll with Dalbec at first, hoping his 2021 second half would carry over, with the idea that Casas would come up mid-year, but that didn't pan out. I don't think they'll want to put themselves in a position where they're counting on Rafaela to debut in 2023 unless everything either goes really, really right or really, really wrong. There is very little chance that he starts in AA next year. He's already proven he can handle the pitching at that level and his defense is so good that he will certainly make his major league debut next year as long as he remains injury free. BA has him at #4 in the Red Sox system now. He will be in the top 6 for sure once MLB updates their rankings for the system.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 15, 2022 23:07:37 GMT -5
With the new incentives, I'm going to be surprised if he doesn't break camp with the Sox next year, his defense alone is a carrying tool. CF or SS depends on Bogey.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 16, 2022 7:27:33 GMT -5
With the new incentives, I'm going to be surprised if he doesn't break camp with the Sox next year, his defense alone is a carrying tool. CF or SS depends on Bogey. The interesting thing about Rafaela is, with the plus CF defense and arm, the very good speed, all he has to do is be a .300-.310 OBP guy with 15+ HRs to be the second coming of prime JBJ. That's enticing. What's more enticing is, if he can more plate discipline and stop swinging at so much crap outside the zone, he could bump the OBP up to .330-350. Then you have an All Star CF. This step is difficult, but should be a particular point of emphasis. Only players like Vlad Guerrero, Sr., Rafi Devers and maybe one or two others have been successful expanding the zone. They should set up some sort of bonus situation for every BB he gets to incentivize him. Seriously.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2022 7:43:55 GMT -5
I think there's a better chance he ends up at SS, too wide a spread between what Bogey wants and what the Sox are willing to spend on someone that doesn't look like a candidate to age well.
That's another topic though, as I pointd out in another thread, Omar Vizquel put up 42.5 career fWAR with a wRC+ of 82.
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Post by ematz1423 on Aug 16, 2022 7:48:38 GMT -5
I think there's a better chance he ends up at SS, too wide a spread between what Bogey wants and what the Sox are willing to spend on someone that doesn't look like a candidate to age well. That's another topic though, as I pointd out in another thread, Omar Vizquel put up 42.5 career fWAR with a wRC+ of 82. He'll probably get some burn at SS but the Sox OF prospects are pretty bleak and Raefaela in my mind should stick in CF since it's more of a need in the organization and Mayer is right behind him at SS with a higher ceiling. For that reason alone I don't think he ends up at SS long term.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Aug 16, 2022 8:03:20 GMT -5
Here's a scenario I can see happening next year: It's spring training, opposing pitchers stilll working on their mechanics and fastball command, not trying to expand the zone or attacking hitters with a specific game plan and so Rafaela hits the living crap out of ball like Ryan Fitzgerald, Bobby Dalbec and Sam Travis etc before him... Pete Abraham and Jason Mastrodonato and some posters here and on Twitter will be clamoring him as opening day CFer but he won't make the final cut and will start the season in AAA. Book it.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2022 8:06:32 GMT -5
I think there's a better chance he ends up at SS, too wide a spread between what Bogey wants and what the Sox are willing to spend on someone that doesn't look like a candidate to age well. That's another topic though, as I pointd out in another thread, Omar Vizquel put up 42.5 career fWAR with a wRC+ of 82. He'll probably get some burn at SS but the Sox OF prospects are pretty bleak and Raefaela in my mind should stick in CF since it's more of a need in the organization and Mayer is right behind him at SS with a higher ceiling. For that reason alone I don't think he ends up at SS long term. Ends up,at SS long term is the key to your reply. Rafi is pretty unique, he could easily be moved around throughout his career solving the current year's weakest link. Pretty much anyplace except 1B and C.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 16, 2022 8:08:32 GMT -5
Here's a scenario I can see happening next year: It's spring training, opposing pitchers stilll working on their mechanics and fastball command, not trying to expand the zone or attacking hitters with a specific game plan and so Rafaela hits the living crap out of ball like Ryan Fitzgerald, Bobby Dalbec and Sam Travis etc before him... Pete Abraham and Jason Mastrodonato and some posters here and on Twitter will be clamoring him as opening day CFer but he won't make the final cut and will start the season in AAA. Book it. You seem to think his carrying tool is his offense.
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radiohix
Veteran
'At the end of the day, we bang. We bang. We're going to swing.' Alex Verdugo
Posts: 6,583
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Post by radiohix on Aug 16, 2022 8:26:42 GMT -5
Here's a scenario I can see happening next year: It's spring training, opposing pitchers stilll working on their mechanics and fastball command, not trying to expand the zone or attacking hitters with a specific game plan and so Rafaela hits the living crap out of ball like Ryan Fitzgerald, Bobby Dalbec and Sam Travis etc before him... Pete Abraham and Jason Mastrodonato and some posters here and on Twitter will be clamoring him as opening day CFer but he won't make the final cut and will start the season in AAA. Book it. You seem to think his carrying tool is his offense. No I don't
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Post by threeifbaerga on Aug 16, 2022 8:37:39 GMT -5
Here's a scenario I can see happening next year: It's spring training, opposing pitchers stilll working on their mechanics and fastball command, not trying to expand the zone or attacking hitters with a specific game plan and so Rafaela hits the living crap out of ball like Ryan Fitzgerald, Bobby Dalbec and Sam Travis etc before him... Pete Abraham and Jason Mastrodonato and some posters here and on Twitter will be clamoring him as opening day CFer but he won't make the final cut and will start the season in AAA. Book it. You seem to think his carrying tool is his offense.
I think it's more that his offense isn't his calling card and some seemingly "ahead of schedule" offensive production will make some think he needs to be in the majors next April.
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Post by seamus on Aug 16, 2022 8:52:20 GMT -5
I would bet he starts next year in Portland, with the plan being to promote him to Worcester in June if all goes well. He could get potentially get a cup of coffee late in the year, but otherwise I expect they want him on track to compete for a spot on the 26-man roster going into 2024. Given that they should be bringing in reinforcements at the big league level for the outfield (e.g. Nimmo, Haniger) and pushing Duran to the 4th OF role, there shouldn't be any pressure for Rafaela to be ready by the 2023 All-Star break. One of the problems this year was that the Red Sox decided to roll with Dalbec at first, hoping his 2021 second half would carry over, with the idea that Casas would come up mid-year, but that didn't pan out. I don't think they'll want to put themselves in a position where they're counting on Rafaela to debut in 2023 unless everything either goes really, really right or really, really wrong. There is very little chance that he starts in AA next year. He's already proven he can handle the pitching at that level and his defense is so good that he will certainly make his major league debut next year as long as he remains injury free. BA has him at #4 in the Red Sox system now. He will be in the top 6 for sure once MLB updates their rankings for the system. There's a reason that SP isn't quite as high on him - he needs to continue working on his approach. He's got an intriguing profile with a lot of upside, so I bet the organization will be reluctant to compromise his development by pushing him too aggressively. He could be ready by late 2023, but I suspect they're going to make a number of moves in the OF this offseason such that the big league roster won't need him unless he either takes a huge leap forward or the roster is wrecked by injuries. I think they'll start him in AA because the last thing they'll want is to put themselves in a position where he's the "next man up" prematurely. I'm probably wrong, but I think he shouldn't be part of the Red Sox's big league plans before 2024, and I would think that means they should maximize his growth in Portland, making sure he can carry over his improvements to next spring before bumping him up to Worcester.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 16, 2022 11:50:14 GMT -5
There is very little chance that he starts in AA next year. He's already proven he can handle the pitching at that level and his defense is so good that he will certainly make his major league debut next year as long as he remains injury free. BA has him at #4 in the Red Sox system now. He will be in the top 6 for sure once MLB updates their rankings for the system. There's a reason that SP isn't quite as high on him - he needs to continue working on his approach. He's got an intriguing profile with a lot of upside, so I bet the organization will be reluctant to compromise his development by pushing him too aggressively. He could be ready by late 2023, but I suspect they're going to make a number of moves in the OF this offseason such that the big league roster won't need him unless he either takes a huge leap forward or the roster is wrecked by injuries. I think they'll start him in AA because the last thing they'll want is to put themselves in a position where he's the "next man up" prematurely. I'm probably wrong, but I think he shouldn't be part of the Red Sox's big league plans before 2024, and I would think that means they should maximize his growth in Portland, making sure he can carry over his improvements to next spring before bumping him up to Worcester. I remember reading the Rays want at least 300 PAs at a level before they move a guy up, especially at the higher levels (AA/AAA). Even if a player reaches that, he has certain goals to attain. If Bloom sticks to that rough equation, and if Rafaela's goals include more BB or at least not expanding the zone so much, starting next year in AA may be a reality. Or he may even go play winter ball or AZ Fall League and see if any progress could be made there. Either way, I agree that, barring massive injuries to the MLB club, a breakthrough on his pitch selection or just outright offensive dominance at AA and AAA, he'll probably be spending the bulk (if not all) of his time in the minors in 2023.
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Post by wkdbigsoxfan on Aug 16, 2022 17:54:41 GMT -5
Here's a scenario I can see happening next year: It's spring training, opposing pitchers stilll working on their mechanics and fastball command, not trying to expand the zone or attacking hitters with a specific game plan and so Rafaela hits the living crap out of ball like Ryan Fitzgerald, Bobby Dalbec and Sam Travis etc before him... Pete Abraham and Jason Mastrodonato and some posters here and on Twitter will be clamoring him as opening day CFer but he won't make the final cut and will start the season in AAA. Book it. The Mastrodonoto and Abraham part is hilarious and true.
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Post by kingstephanos on Aug 16, 2022 20:53:07 GMT -5
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