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9/21-9/22 Red Sox vs. Mets Series Thread
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Post by greenmonster on Sept 21, 2021 21:49:27 GMT -5
w
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 21, 2021 21:50:53 GMT -5
Even though no ground was gained 1 more game came off the schedule and the Sox at worst have the split and the possibility of winning both with Sale and Houck available.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 21, 2021 21:51:39 GMT -5
Here we are, fighting for the best wild card spot, big game - and it was Brasier/Big Fudge Davis/ Robles pitching meaningful innings (and pitching them well). What a weird and wonderful game baseball is. It’s not an overstatement to say braiser deserves a save for the job he did in the fifth inning(I know that’s not how that works) He got the win. |
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 21, 2021 21:51:51 GMT -5
Darwinzon - first save - and continues being a nail biter reliever (why of course!). Another win, another step toward the first wild card. It was Xander and Kiké night! I don't think Darwinzon gets a save. He only got 2 outs and the tying run wasn't in the on deck circle. Had he gotten 3 outs he would have gotten the save regardless of the situation he came into. |
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Sept 21, 2021 21:56:40 GMT -5
Sept: 12-6
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Post by reasonabledoubt on Sept 21, 2021 22:04:07 GMT -5
According to Bogey they are sticking with the City Connect unis.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 21, 2021 22:05:07 GMT -5
My Predictions for what remains - we finish with 95 wins, MFY 89 wins, Tampa 98 wins, Toronto 92 wins.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 21, 2021 22:13:01 GMT -5
According to Bogey they are sticking with the City Connect unis. No reason to break the streak now. I wouldn’t mind them a couple times each year. The font choice for the numbers on the back is weird though. It should look more like the Boston text’s font IMO |
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Post by congusgambler33 on Sept 21, 2021 22:17:25 GMT -5
Brasier was huge in this game to limit the damage like he did. I think that was the key in the game. great win!!!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2021 22:19:15 GMT -5
So, which MLB starting pitcher with a big sample size ... [is] the poster child for guys we can be expected to hit unexpectedly well? Marcus Stroman. Seriously. ...
We shall see. But the numbers say that Dalbec (if he's in the lineup!) takes him deep. Reposted for those who skipped the post because of the large quantity of sabermetric theory it was embedded in. Since Tizzle got all the credit for this win, I figured that a lot of y'all fit that description.
Dalbec didn't take him deep; he was just the only guy who hit him hard his first two times.
The methodology I used for this (which I invented in c. 2005 but never had the data handy to try it out) can measure how any individual hitter fares against the opposition in any stat.
For instance, which medium-K hitters strike out extra often against high-K pitchers and rarely against low-K pitchers, and which guys with the same overall K rate are relatively resistant to high-K pitchers but fan more often against the lower-K types? The latter guy is much better against elite pitching and hence in the post-season and facing closers with the game on the line.
Alas, right now it's time consuming to answer this question for one team or guy. But I may mess around with it a bit to see if I can speed it up.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 21, 2021 22:35:03 GMT -5
Brasier was huge in this game to limit the damage like he did. I think that was the key in the game. great win!!! When Whitlock went on the IL, I checked the recent Worcester numbers of every pitcher on the 40-man. No one was impressive, and Brasier hadn't pitched since he was sent down. He had looked lost up here.
I was surprised that they recalled him and shocked that they brought him into a high-lev situation. But he apparently his 7 days of "rest" was work to fix him.
This is a really well-run organization, no?
Fun part for me is that I was listening on the radio at that point in the game. Later I'll go back downstairs and watch that inning on the DVR.
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 21, 2021 23:04:15 GMT -5
I read a tweet somewhere before they began wearing them that it was by player request. Still Fugly though. If the blue was green, they would look like Charlie O. designed them. The players chose to bring them back for the Orioles series, my guess is that they wore them for superstitious reasons since they swept the O's. So we can expect the “RED Sox” to wear the ugly yellow and blue uniforms against the O’s 19 times next year. Lol |
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Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 21, 2021 23:14:07 GMT -5
Wonder if we see Houck tonight? I think Houck probably needs an extra day with his extended outing, maybe Ottavino and Richards? Idk if we’re ready for a Barnes heart attack lol i think Cora will try to save Houck for the Yankee series since Whitlock is gone. |
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Post by benzinger on Sept 21, 2021 23:32:32 GMT -5
According to Bogey they are sticking with the City Connect unis. Of course! Baseball players are the most superstitious people you can find. They will stick with them until they lose. |
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Post by benzinger on Sept 21, 2021 23:35:00 GMT -5
I think Houck probably needs an extra day with his extended outing, maybe Ottavino and Richards? Idk if we’re ready for a Barnes heart attack lol i think Cora will try to save Houck for the Yankee series since Whitlock is gone. Ottavino, too. We need all hands on deck for the Yankees. Then we get 6 games against sub-.500 teams to close it out. Expect Barnes to get an inning tomorrow to see if he can be trusted in the NYY series. |
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Post by Guidas on Sept 22, 2021 0:04:33 GMT -5
Great win!
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 22, 2021 3:01:40 GMT -5
As noted, of MLB SP with a big sample, Stroman had the best karma. Logic says that hitters with good karma are going to neutralize that and fare better against him.
The four guys on the Sox with good hitting karma were Iglesias (since we signed him), Bogaerts, Vazquez, and (since he got hot) Dalbec.
Those four guys went 5/8, 3 2B, HR, BB (.625 / .667 / 1.375)
The other five guys were held hitless until the third time around the order and finished 2/13, 2B, HR, BB, HBP (.154 / .267 / .462).
Megill has terrible karma: .296 xwOBA, .331 wOBA. I'm not sure the same logic holds, but Devers is the guy with the worst karma and might well be the best bet to hit him hard. Renfroe might be second, and then it would be the other four guys who played yesterday.
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Post by patford on Sept 22, 2021 7:38:16 GMT -5
Alex Cora taking his eggs for a walk:  |
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Post by manfred on Sept 22, 2021 9:31:17 GMT -5
As noted, of MLB SP with a big sample, Stroman had the best karma. Logic says that hitters with good karma are going to neutralize that and fare better against him.
The four guys on the Sox with good hitting karma were Iglesias (since we signed him), Bogaerts, Vazquez, and (since he got hot) Dalbec.
Those four guys went 5/8, 3 2B, HR, BB (.625 / .667 / 1.375)
The other five guys were held hitless until the third time around the order and finished 2/13, 2B, HR, BB, HBP (.154 / .267 / .462).
Megill has terrible karma: .296 xwOBA, .331 wOBA. I'm not sure the same logic holds, but Devers is the guy with the worst karma and might well be the best bet to hit him hard. Renfroe might be second, and then it would be the other four guys who played yesterday.
Teehee… logic and karma. But I get what you’re saying. |
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Post by benzinger on Sept 22, 2021 10:30:45 GMT -5
What is Cora going to do with Iglesias? He’s too hot to take out of the lineup(173 OPS+ with the Sox!), but he’s not eligible for postseason play. He has to get Arroyo some reps soon, no?
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 10:40:38 GMT -5
What is Cora going to do with Iglesias? He’s too hot to take out of the lineup(173 OPS+ with the Sox!), but he’s not eligible for postseason play. He has to get Arroyo some reps soon, no? After the Yankees series might be a good time. |
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Post by ramireja on Sept 22, 2021 11:10:26 GMT -5
As noted, of MLB SP with a big sample, Stroman had the best karma. Logic says that hitters with good karma are going to neutralize that and fare better against him. The four guys on the Sox with good hitting karma were Iglesias (since we signed him), Bogaerts, Vazquez, and (since he got hot) Dalbec. Those four guys went 5/8, 3 2B, HR, BB (.625 / .667 / 1.375) The other five guys were held hitless until the third time around the order and finished 2/13, 2B, HR, BB, HBP (.154 / .267 / .462). Megill has terrible karma: .296 xwOBA, .331 wOBA. I'm not sure the same logic holds, but Devers is the guy with the worst karma and might well be the best bet to hit him hard. Renfroe might be second, and then it would be the other four guys who played yesterday.
Just an FYI that Megill's turn in the rotation got swapped to Taijuan Walker |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2021 11:10:34 GMT -5
As noted, of MLB SP with a big sample, Stroman had the best karma. Logic says that hitters with good karma are going to neutralize that and fare better against him.
The four guys on the Sox with good hitting karma were Iglesias (since we signed him), Bogaerts, Vazquez, and (since he got hot) Dalbec.
Those four guys went 5/8, 3 2B, HR, BB (.625 / .667 / 1.375)
The other five guys were held hitless until the third time around the order and finished 2/13, 2B, HR, BB, HBP (.154 / .267 / .462).
Megill has terrible karma: .296 xwOBA, .331 wOBA. I'm not sure the same logic holds, but Devers is the guy with the worst karma and might well be the best bet to hit him hard. Renfroe might be second, and then it would be the other four guys who played yesterday.
Following your earlier comment, I did notice that Stroman won the battle in Dalbec's second AB by getting him to hit a fly ball to center, lol... |
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Post by incandenza on Sept 22, 2021 11:13:36 GMT -5
As noted, of MLB SP with a big sample, Stroman had the best karma. Logic says that hitters with good karma are going to neutralize that and fare better against him.
The four guys on the Sox with good hitting karma were Iglesias (since we signed him), Bogaerts, Vazquez, and (since he got hot) Dalbec.
Those four guys went 5/8, 3 2B, HR, BB (.625 / .667 / 1.375)
The other five guys were held hitless until the third time around the order and finished 2/13, 2B, HR, BB, HBP (.154 / .267 / .462).
Megill has terrible karma: .296 xwOBA, .331 wOBA. I'm not sure the same logic holds, but Devers is the guy with the worst karma and might well be the best bet to hit him hard. Renfroe might be second, and then it would be the other four guys who played yesterday.
Teehee… logic and karma. But I get what you’re saying. Hey, they're both foundational concepts in Indian philosophy. I figure eric just wants the team to reach nirvana.  |
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
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Post by ericmvan on Sept 22, 2021 12:03:47 GMT -5
Teehee… logic and karma. But I get what you’re saying. Hey, they're both foundational concepts in Indian philosophy. I figure eric just wants the team to reach nirvana. As good a time as any to point out that I went to the off-topic forum tp continue a fruitful discussion and was reminded that we were having a conversation there about consciousness. (And for the curious, there's nothing there about Dalbec being "unconscious" for two months.) There's now a new reply of mine.
So, Walker tonight, eh? We thrive against pitchers with good karma. Stroman ranked 1st out of 85 guys with 500+ BFP. Walker is 8th. But he's also 8th in wOBA allowed among the top 10 karma specialists.
Name PA wOBA xwOBA Kar
Stroman, Marcus 683 .274 .307 .033
Mize, Casey 584 .310 .342 .032
Wainwright, Ad. 781 .268 .299 .031
Woodruff, Bran. 668 .250 .278 .028
Snell, Blake 549 .305 .333 .028
DeSclafani, An. 639 .275 .300 .025
Berríos, José 734 .288 .312 .024
Walker, Taijuan 616 .297 .321 .024
Gausman, Kevin 706 .260 .284 .024
Scherzer, Max 644 .236 .258 .022
If you lower the bar to 375 PA to get 137 qualifiers, Stroman is 3rd and Walker is 14th ... he's 90th percentile either way.
If I were doing this as a real study I'd figure out a team-defense adjustment for individual pitchers.
Interesting: the #1, 2, and 5 guys on the longer list are all in their second years -- the Astros' Cristian Javier, who is in the pen after 9 starts, and rookies Triston McKenzie of the Indians, and Mize. Seems like karma can be an unfamiliarity effect, in part.
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