SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
9/21-9/22 Red Sox vs. Mets Series Thread
|
|
Post by Guidas on Sept 22, 2021 12:07:56 GMT -5
Hey, they're both foundational concepts in Indian philosophy. I figure eric just wants the team to reach nirvana.  As good a time as any to point out that I went to the off-topic forum tp continue a fruitful discussion and was reminded that we were having a conversation there about consciousness. (And for the curious, there's nothing there about Dalbec being "unconscious" for two months.) There's now a new reply of mine.
So, Walker tonight, eh? We thrive against pitchers with good karma. Stroman ranked 1st out of 85 guys with 500+ BFP. Walker is 8th. But he's also 8th in wOBA allowed among the top 10 karma specialists.
Name PA wOBA xwOBA Kar
Stroman, Marcus 683 .274 .307 .033
Mize, Casey 584 .310 .342 .032
Wainwright, Ad. 781 .268 .299 .031
Woodruff, Bran. 668 .250 .278 .028
Snell, Blake 549 .305 .333 .028
DeSclafani, An. 639 .275 .300 .025
Berríos, José 734 .288 .312 .024
Walker, Taijuan 616 .297 .321 .024
Gausman, Kevin 706 .260 .284 .024
Scherzer, Max 644 .236 .258 .022
If you lower the bar to 375 PA to get 137 qualifiers, Stroman is 3rd and Walker is 14th ... he's 90th percentile either way.
If I were doing this as a real study I'd figure out a team-defense adjustment for individual pitchers. Interesting: the #1, 2, and 5 guys on the longer list are all in their second years -- the Astros' Cristian Javier, who is in the pen after 9 starts, and rookies Triston McKenzie of the Indians, and Mize. Seems like karma can be an unfamiliarity effect, in part.
So, using last night's formula for Stroman but subbing out Walkers' stats, who's most likely to have the karma and succeed tonight for the Sox? |
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 22, 2021 13:28:31 GMT -5
Haven’t been posting as much in these threads, but I’m still watching nearly every game. I know it’s a minority opinion, but I hate these uniforms. I get it if they want to wear them for Patriots Day weekend, but I just don’t like them at all. They are putrid. Like, embarrassingly putrid. All they do is win in them... |
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 13:41:43 GMT -5
They are putrid. Like, embarrassingly putrid. All they do is win in them... Jeez, we could have avoided all that August aggravation and perhaps the Sox would be ahead of Tampa if only they had worn their lucky uniforms.  |
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 22, 2021 13:43:19 GMT -5
The players chose to bring them back for the Orioles series, my guess is that they wore them for superstitious reasons since they swept the O's. So we can expect the “RED Sox” to wear the ugly yellow and blue uniforms against the O’s 19 times next year. Lol Easy fix: Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome YOUR BOSTON CHARLATANS! |
|
|
|
Post by soxfansince67 on Sept 22, 2021 13:50:15 GMT -5
Oh come on, don't the uniform colors remind you of the Crayola crayon colors "yellow" and "blue" from your youth (well, my youth!) - or the colors of the finger paints we used in kindergarten?
I actually kind of like them (but then again, I am somewhat of a rebel!)
|
|
|
|
Post by Underwater Johnson on Sept 22, 2021 14:05:06 GMT -5
A random note about Stroman:
Last night was his first start in which he surrendered >3 ER since Aug. 1st and only his second since May 16th.
It was only his fourth start out of 32 in which he gave up >3 ER.
For comparison, E-Rod has had 11 such starts out of 29 (I know, he's been really unlucky...).
Gausman also has four (out of 31).
|
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 22, 2021 14:30:06 GMT -5
This guy is going to bring the tying run to the plate. Or not. Great win. The 86 Mets these Mets aren't. I'm not even sure if the 2018 Red Sox were that good. |
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Sept 22, 2021 14:55:08 GMT -5
Let’s go Jays!
|
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 15:19:06 GMT -5
Or not. Great win. The 86 Mets these Mets aren't. I'm not even sure if the 2018 Red Sox were that good. Perhaps not, but they certainly were more impressive in the post-season than the 86 Mets were. Those Mets were thankful not to see Mike Scott scuffing the ball for a potential Game 7 of the NLCS and it took McNamara's incompetence for the Mets to survive the 1986 World Series. The 2018 Red Sox blew through a 100 win Yankees team, a 103 win Astros team, and a 92 win Dodgers team that was much better than that and had been the class of the NL for most of the decade, with 11 wins in 14 games. Just as an aside, I have to say, as painful as it was at times, that four part 30 for 30 ESPN documentary on the 86 Mets was pretty damn good. I'd recommend watching it. |
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 15:21:51 GMT -5
Let's go Rays. I'll root for Toronto when NY visits them. The Jays won't need to much of our rooting help when they face Minnesota on the road and Baltimore at home. |
|
|
|
Post by julyanmorley on Sept 22, 2021 15:27:21 GMT -5
Rays up 6-0.
Win tonight and we're approaching "not even worried a little bit about missing the playoffs" territory.
|
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 15:28:58 GMT -5
Rays up 6-0. Win tonight and we're approaching "not even worried a little bit about missing the playoffs" territory. Jeez I didn't realize it was an early game. Great news. Thanks for the update. If the Sox win tonight, all they have to do is avoid getting swept by the Yankees, do what is reasonable against crappy Baltimore and Washington teams, and they'll be hosting the Wild Card game. |
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 15:49:27 GMT -5
Rays up 7-0 in the 4th. They pulled Patino after 3. I wonder why. The Jays seemingly have a bullpen game that went bad. Stripling got bombed. He's pretty terrible.
|
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Sept 22, 2021 16:02:49 GMT -5
Let's go Rays. I'll root for Toronto when NY visits them. The Jays won't need to much of our rooting help when they face Minnesota on the road and Baltimore at home. Doesn’t matter now that TOR is getting killed, but I want those last 3 games against NYY to matter for Tampa. Edit: I also really REALLY want to see the Yankees miss the playoffs. |
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 22, 2021 16:04:20 GMT -5
I'm not even sure if the 2018 Red Sox were that good. Perhaps not, but they certainly were more impressive in the post-season than the 86 Mets were. Those Mets were thankful not to see Mike Scott scuffing the ball for a potential Game 7 of the NLCS and it took McNamara's incompetence for the Mets to survive the 1986 World Series. The 2018 Red Sox blew through a 100 win Yankees team, a 103 win Astros team, and a 92 win Dodgers team that was much better than that and had been the class of the NL for most of the decade, with 11 wins in 14 games. Just as an aside, I have to say, as painful as it was at times, that four part 30 for 30 ESPN documentary on the 86 Mets was pretty damn good. I'd recommend watching it. I did watch it and it was unbelievable. It's amazing how good the Mets were acting like that. They were just completely stacked. Imagine if they had the 19-20 year old Gooden instead of the one who had just pitched about 750 major league innings by the age of 21. I think they'd put you in prison if you let a young pitcher do that now. I kept rooting for the ending to be different. lol |
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Sept 22, 2021 16:05:23 GMT -5
Not big on the Sox sitting their best player tonight:
Hernández CF
Schwarber 1B
Bogaerts SS
Devers 3B
Martinez DH
Verdugo LF
Renfroe RF
Vázquez C
Iglesias 2B
|
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Sept 22, 2021 16:14:17 GMT -5
Not big on the Sox sitting their best player tonight: Hernández CF Schwarber 1B Bogaerts SS Devers 3B Martinez DH Verdugo LF Renfroe RF Vázquez C Iglesias 2B Agreed. JDM should be the odd man out. I swear I haven’t seen him get a big hit since May. |
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 22, 2021 16:14:52 GMT -5
As good a time as any to point out that I went to the off-topic forum tp continue a fruitful discussion and was reminded that we were having a conversation there about consciousness. (And for the curious, there's nothing there about Dalbec being "unconscious" for two months.) There's now a new reply of mine.
So, Walker tonight, eh? We thrive against pitchers with good karma. Stroman ranked 1st out of 85 guys with 500+ BFP. Walker is 8th. But he's also 8th in wOBA allowed among the top 10 karma specialists.
Name PA wOBA xwOBA Kar
Stroman, Marcus 683 .274 .307 .033
Mize, Casey 584 .310 .342 .032
Wainwright, Ad. 781 .268 .299 .031
Woodruff, Bran. 668 .250 .278 .028
Snell, Blake 549 .305 .333 .028
DeSclafani, An. 639 .275 .300 .025
Berríos, José 734 .288 .312 .024
Walker, Taijuan 616 .297 .321 .024
Gausman, Kevin 706 .260 .284 .024
Scherzer, Max 644 .236 .258 .022
If you lower the bar to 375 PA to get 137 qualifiers, Stroman is 3rd and Walker is 14th ... he's 90th percentile either way.
If I were doing this as a real study I'd figure out a team-defense adjustment for individual pitchers. Interesting: the #1, 2, and 5 guys on the longer list are all in their second years -- the Astros' Cristian Javier, who is in the pen after 9 starts, and rookies Triston McKenzie of the Indians, and Mize. Seems like karma can be an unfamiliarity effect, in part.
So, using last night's formula for Stroman but subbing out Walkers' stats, who's most likely to have the karma and succeed tonight for the Sox? Same four guys. And they'll appear to be hotter than their teammates!
I'm only looking at the one stat here, karma, which measures the success of horizontal launch angle. You could do it with a whole mess of stats, as I mentioned earlier ... which teams and hitters feast on homer-prone guys to pad their HR totals, vs. which teams and hitters can take guys deep who are tough to homer off of? I'd love to look at all of that, but that's a project for a winter ... with a collaborator to wrote code!
While we're on the topic of karma for pitchers, it just occurred to me that I can get a list of the karma for every Red Sox start this year. I remain unconvinced that E-Rod has just had bad luck and doesn't have a bad karma problem that comes and goes. What percentage of the worst karma starts has he had? Could that be random?
Thinking aloud ... under what circumstances do good hitters try to direct the ball away from fielders, and succeed? When they correctly guess on a tough pitch. "This guy's gonna throw the sinker down and way again, but if he does that I'm just going to go the other way and hit an 89 mph grounder through the hole in the shift."
And hey, one of the guys who is good at this is the catcher. Whose job involves pitch sequencing!
The thing is, we're talking here about karma on grounders and non-hard hit fly balls. Whereas the karma I've been mostly talking about, and where Dalbec has had crazy success in his hot streak, is pulling hard fly balls rather than hitting them to center. The numbers on those can be looked at separately. Positive is good for the pitcher. League average is .000 for all; you don't get divergences from that until you specify direction,
Hard hit FB: Stroman .183, Walker .069, E-Rod -.085
Soft hit FB: Stroman .034, Walker -.007, E-Rod -.142
Hard hit LD & GB: Stroman .067, Walker .046, E-Rod -.088.
Soft hit LD & GB: Walker .028, Stroman .014, E-Rod -.038
Red Sox with rank among all MLB teams (this is mostly defense):
Hard hit FB: -.023 (15)
Soft hit FB: -.063 (30)
Hard hit LD & GB: -.026 (27)
Soft hit LD & GB: -.010 (29)
Fenway may be helping with the first line there. Let's see!
Nope: Sox are -.039 in Fenway, 14th, and +.005 on the road, 12th.
That may be a big-ball-park skill by the staff, because IIRC Statcast has our OF defense as below average.
I could do ths all night and really shouldn't!
|
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Sept 22, 2021 16:36:37 GMT -5
So we can expect the “RED Sox” to wear the ugly yellow and blue uniforms against the O’s 19 times next year. Lol Easy fix: Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome YOUR BOSTON CHARLATANS! The Boston Bananas. |
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 9,027
|
Post by ericmvan on Sept 22, 2021 16:38:02 GMT -5
Not big on the Sox sitting their best player tonight: Hernández CF Schwarber 1B Bogaerts SS Devers 3B Martinez DH Verdugo LF Renfroe RF Vázquez C Iglesias 2B I really truly think they have a good book on the sorts of RHP that give Dalbc trouble. I mean, he's not the second best hitter in MLB, right? But you can create the illusion of that if you sit him against the 38% of RHP (8 times in 21) that he projects to hit less well than Shaw or both DH guys, Renfroe, etc.
And these 13 starts in 21 games (including tonight) is just since August 13. Before that he was in a strict platoon with Franchy (5 starts) and Marwin (1).
Here's a thing: there's anecdotal evidence that guys can get into slumps by having a single rough game. Which is to say, I noticed that when I was scoring every pitch of every game, but it was at least likelier than not just cognitive bias. I actually looked at Papi and there were a couple of LHP that had seemed to put him into a slump on two different occasions, and I suggested that they sit him against those guys to play it safe.
It's quite possible that Dalbec has stayed hot this long because they've shielded him from facing pitchers who might cause him to unconsciously get his swing out of whack. If that is a thing. Which I'm unsure about!
|
|
cdj
Veteran
Posts: 15,862 
Member is Online
|
Post by cdj on Sept 22, 2021 16:45:44 GMT -5
Not big on the Sox sitting their best player tonight: Hernández CF Schwarber 1B Bogaerts SS Devers 3B Martinez DH Verdugo LF Renfroe RF Vázquez C Iglesias 2B Agreed. JDM should be the odd man out. I swear I haven’t seen him get a big hit since May. He hit a go ahead 3 run homer in extras like 2.5 weeks ago This narrative is getting tiresome because it’s just not grounded in reality. And this comes from somebody who would prefer Schwarber to him next year. 2 outs w RISP: .355/.444/.774/1.219 High leverage: .330/.387/.617/1.004 That doesn’t exactly seem like somebody who doesn’t get big hits |
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 22, 2021 17:02:27 GMT -5
Perhaps not, but they certainly were more impressive in the post-season than the 86 Mets were. Those Mets were thankful not to see Mike Scott scuffing the ball for a potential Game 7 of the NLCS and it took McNamara's incompetence for the Mets to survive the 1986 World Series. The 2018 Red Sox blew through a 100 win Yankees team, a 103 win Astros team, and a 92 win Dodgers team that was much better than that and had been the class of the NL for most of the decade, with 11 wins in 14 games. Just as an aside, I have to say, as painful as it was at times, that four part 30 for 30 ESPN documentary on the 86 Mets was pretty damn good. I'd recommend watching it. I did watch it and it was unbelievable. It's amazing how good the Mets were acting like that. They were just completely stacked. Imagine if they had the 19-20 year old Gooden instead of the one who had just pitched about 750 major league innings by the age of 21. I think they'd put you in prison if you let a young pitcher do that now. I kept rooting for the ending to be different. lol I hear you. I don't know if it was too many innings and pitches at too early an age or his cocaine problem that destroyed a potential HOF career or a combo of both. All I know was that the Sox had no problems hitting him and after a great start in 1986 he was never the same. The Mets thought they had a good young cornerstone when they traded Mitchell for McReynolds but that backfired terribly and Dykstra was traded away for Samuel. Still they stole David Cone for Ed Hearn and would get Frank Viola for Rick Aguilera, but Hernandez and Carter aged out and Magadan and particularly Sasser were downgraded and Gregg Jeffries didn't work out in NY and the Bonilla signing was a disaster. Amazing how bad it disintegrated. Perhaps their punishment for winning in 1986 is to wait 86 years to win their next one. |
|
|
|
Post by benzinger on Sept 22, 2021 17:26:45 GMT -5
Agreed. JDM should be the odd man out. I swear I haven’t seen him get a big hit since May. He hit a go ahead 3 run homer in extras like 2.5 weeks ago This narrative is getting tiresome because it’s just not grounded in reality. And this comes from somebody who would prefer Schwarber to him next year. 2 outs w RISP: .355/.444/.774/1.219 High leverage: .330/.387/.617/1.004 That doesn’t exactly seem like somebody who doesn’t get big hits Fair enough, but he did 80% of his work in April and May and has mostly been grounding into double plays and having non-competitive AB’s since. I don’t need to oversell this to you, because you have been watching. You’ve seen it. |
|
|
|
Post by Soxfansince1971 on Sept 22, 2021 17:58:24 GMT -5
A random note about Stroman: Last night was his first start in which he surrendered >3 ER since Aug. 1st and only his second since May 16th. It was only his fourth start out of 32 in which he gave up >3 ER. For comparison, E-Rod has had 11 such starts out of 29 (I know, he's been really unlucky...). Gausman also has four (out of 31). I wonder if Bloom would consider Stroman or Gausman. Wow, the worst BA in today’s lineup is .251 and the worst OPS is .669. That obviously means, thankfully, no Marwin, Franchy, or Santana...... Franchy AAA Marwin DFA Santana Covid exile |
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Sept 22, 2021 18:00:25 GMT -5
A random note about Stroman: Last night was his first start in which he surrendered >3 ER since Aug. 1st and only his second since May 16th. It was only his fourth start out of 32 in which he gave up >3 ER. For comparison, E-Rod has had 11 such starts out of 29 (I know, he's been really unlucky...). Gausman also has four (out of 31). I wonder if Bloom would consider Stroman or Gausman. We've seen them both in the AL East. |
|
|
