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10/5 - AL Wild Card Game: Red Sox vs. Yankees
patford
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Post by patford on Oct 6, 2021 12:24:12 GMT -5
Not sure it was fair of Boone to imply the rest of the division has backed up to the MFY. Was Boone even alive in 1927 ?
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 6, 2021 12:24:18 GMT -5
Reading some Yankee fan social media posts this morning.
Seeing lots of "Well, just fire the manager and coaches and hope for bounce back seasons". Split on if they should sign any major free agents. Maybe a mid-rotation starter.
George Steinbrenner would be ashamed of these fans.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 6, 2021 12:28:05 GMT -5
Ray, Matz and Semien are all free agents. That's 13.3 2021 WAR they paid $30 million for. Replacing those guys with market price free agents is a full ten win drop off. I read somewhere (can't remember where) that if the Sox spend big it would only be on one free agent, Marcus Semien. We'll see if it comes to fruition. I read something along those lines and think it may have been Peter gammons? If so can basically toss that out as straight conjecture which I guess you can either way no matter who wrote it. Semien would be great to add though. However I sure hope he's not the only "big name and money guy" they are involved in.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 6, 2021 12:29:54 GMT -5
Reading some Yankee fan social media posts this morning. Seeing lots of "Well, just fire the manager and coaches and hope for bounce back seasons". Split on if they should sign any major free agents. Maybe a mid-rotation starter. George Steinbrenner would be ashamed of these fans. Ha I'd say they need a SS, a CF probably a catcher and a first baseman so yes please just sign a mid rotation arm yankees.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 6, 2021 13:23:26 GMT -5
I am looking at the list of 11 things I wanted / needed to get done on Monday, of which 7.5 are still staring at me in the face. Several are calling me names. And a shopping trip to BJ's and a nap have to be fit in before the NL WC game!
So if I do end up posting a player-by-player breakdown of the Rays' offense today, whoever lives closest to me is authorized to come over and smack me on the knuckles.
And hence some quick comments ...
-- Yesterday's game had relatively neutral karma. At some point I'll post the breakdown by expected results, but the short version is that based on xBA, you'd expect just three things to have been different. Urshela's swinging bunt in the second is an out, and is exactly offset by Judge's hard long fly out to right center that ended the 3rd being (presumably) a double.
You may be able to guess the third one. Yes, New Clutch Raffy (TM) did not disappear; the ball he smoked to right-center (105.5, .75 xBA) to greet Green should have been the blow that blew the game open, and Dugie's single should have been frosting.
-- National media will be looking at runs scored for the Rays and Red Sox over the season to compare the offenses. Of course, we've added Schwarber, and Renfroe, Kiké, and Dalbec are all now better hitters (the last two to a big degree) than their season totals indicate. (I want to look at all the Rays' hitters to see if they have any similar transformations.)
That the lineup now is much more dangerous than the one that had us cruising in first place is highly counter-intuitive, but Xander, JDM, and Raffy all had much better first halves than second, and that's not predictive. And we were very clutch in a long stretch back then, and that's normalized.
-- For the record, I was more than OK with the Eovaldi hook. The four relievers they used all are better than Eovaldi the 3rd time through the order. And sure, when Eovaldi is at the top of his game like this, for another inning or so it might be a wash, but a key thing is that the odds of getting that awesome version of Nate again in game 3 go up when you don't force him into very high-effort extra PA's in this start.
-- The excellent announcing team in the Statcast broadcast had a great stat that helps explain the decision to send Judge: Joey Gallo has two career sacrifice flies. That's in 127 opportunities! With average hitters versus average pitchers coming up, you need a 67% chance of scoring to send the runner, according to FG ... but with the matchups here, it was probably around 50-50. I'm not sure that sending Judge was the right call, but it was completely defensible. The emphasis here should be on the brilliance of the relay.
OK, that wasn't quick. Who am I kidding?
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Post by curtisw on Oct 6, 2021 13:41:09 GMT -5
Last night was so much fun. Loved our approaches at the plate, total breath of fresh air to see them walking and getting in lots of hitter’s counts.
Also loved the fact we have some classic moments from the game, Bogey’s homer, the ridiculous Stanton single which I did think looked very troubling then plummeted…hysterical to listen to NY radio blow that call after the game. But when that ball dropped I did have a bit of a “feeling” about this game. Not that I wasn’t nervous the rest of the way, until they went up 6-1. Then I started breathing and the smiles came. A really fun game.
And I’m very happy that Cora continues to show he is one of the better managers in this league. Not afraid to make big moves others will criticize, masterful at motivating guys and managing workloads both for hitters and pitchers.
Let’s see what they can do against Tampa. We won the first half of the marathon with them. Lost the second half of the marathon to them pretty badly. Let’s see if we can beat them. I think they can, not necessarily they will. But they have the pieces to make this a very interesting series. Sox might just be rounding back into form at the very best possible time. Exciting stuff. Win or lose though I am firmly in the camp this year was a huge success. All gravy now
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 6, 2021 13:41:59 GMT -5
3 hours of sleep, 20,000 steps at work, time for a nap... My eyes are burning. Sooooo worth it.
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Post by maxwellsdemon on Oct 6, 2021 13:42:52 GMT -5
Not sure it was fair of Boone to imply the rest of the division has backed up to the MFY. To paraphrase Richard Fariña: he's been down so long it looks like up to him. Sadly, I remember him and Turn Your Money Green whne it was new (but on the upside I got to enjoy the '67 Sox and still have the scorecard I kept from Game 2 (row 10 behind home plate) when Lonberg one hit the Cards.
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Post by curtisw on Oct 6, 2021 13:43:54 GMT -5
Reading some Yankee fan social media posts this morning. Seeing lots of "Well, just fire the manager and coaches and hope for bounce back seasons". Split on if they should sign any major free agents. Maybe a mid-rotation starter. George Steinbrenner would be ashamed of these fans. Ha I'd say they need a SS, a CF probably a catcher and a first baseman so yes please just sign a mid rotation arm yankees. This would be ideal but I do think there’s virtually no way they don’t sign a big bat now. If that front office has a half a brain cell they know pitching is probably not their biggest issue. Semien feels oddly realistic for them. I could unfortunately totally see. Hoping not because I like Semien and it would be brutal to watch him annihilate balls for the MFY
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 6, 2021 13:47:44 GMT -5
Ha I'd say they need a SS, a CF probably a catcher and a first baseman so yes please just sign a mid rotation arm yankees. This would be ideal but I do think there’s virtually no way they don’t sign a big bat now. If that front office has a half a brain cell they know pitching is probably not their biggest issue. Semien feels oddly realistic for them. I could unfortunately totally see. Hoping not because I like Semien and it would be brutal to watch him annihilate balls for the MFY They should trade for Sano and Adam Duvall. They need more strikeouts in the lineup.
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Post by incandenza on Oct 6, 2021 13:48:57 GMT -5
I've already penciled in Correa for them. But with Cole, Stanton, and Judge already on the roster, I wonder if they can really "afford" (i.e., if Steinbrenner will be willing to spend for) another $30 million player.
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 6, 2021 13:49:27 GMT -5
Ha I'd say they need a SS, a CF probably a catcher and a first baseman so yes please just sign a mid rotation arm yankees. This would be ideal but I do think there’s virtually no way they don’t sign a big bat now. If that front office has a half a brain cell they know pitching is probably not their biggest issue. Semien feels oddly realistic for them. I could unfortunately totally see. Hoping not because I like Semien and it would be brutal to watch him annihilate balls for the MFY Semien has a career 109 wRC+. Is he for real now? Also his wOBA has been much higher than his xwOBA in his only two good seasons. He is a very good defender.
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Post by curtisw on Oct 6, 2021 13:54:07 GMT -5
This would be ideal but I do think there’s virtually no way they don’t sign a big bat now. If that front office has a half a brain cell they know pitching is probably not their biggest issue. Semien feels oddly realistic for them. I could unfortunately totally see. Hoping not because I like Semien and it would be brutal to watch him annihilate balls for the MFY Semien has a career 109 wRC+. Is he for real now? Also his wOBA has been much higher than his xwOBA in his only two good seasons. He is a very good defender. Good points. This year might have been one of those career years that seem to happen so often in this game, never to be repeated. If he does indeed sign with the MFY or resign with Toronto there is hope he won’t continue to murder the ball. If he signs with us (which I entirely doubt) then this information is a bit worrying given the likely price tag.
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Post by curtisw on Oct 6, 2021 13:56:07 GMT -5
I've already penciled in Correa for them. But with Cole, Stanton, and Judge already on the roster, I wonder if they can really "afford" (i.e., if Steinbrenner will be willing to spend for) another $30 million player. Correa would definitely be a scarier pickup than Semien and you’re probably right that is who they will target. But you’re right that’s really all up to how much they want to spend. The classic Yankee move after a game like last night is to start lighting money on fire. But maybe the game has changed enough that they won’t be able to go out do that in the same way? Or maybe I’m just being overly hopeful after a super invigorating win lol
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 6, 2021 13:58:11 GMT -5
Semien has a career 109 wRC+. Is he for real now? Also his wOBA has been much higher than his xwOBA in his only two good seasons. He is a very good defender. Good points. This year might have been one of those career years that seem to happen so often in this game, never to be repeated. If he does indeed sign with the MFY or resign with Toronto there is hope he won’t continue to murder the ball. If he signs with us (which I entirely doubt) then this information is a bit worrying given the likely price tag. Much of his value is tied to defense and the Red Sox aren't moving Xander off SS just yet. No way I pay that price for a 2B.
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Post by curtisw on Oct 6, 2021 14:02:49 GMT -5
Good points. This year might have been one of those career years that seem to happen so often in this game, never to be repeated. If he does indeed sign with the MFY or resign with Toronto there is hope he won’t continue to murder the ball. If he signs with us (which I entirely doubt) then this information is a bit worrying given the likely price tag. Much of his value is tied to defense and the Red Sox aren't moving Xander off SS just yet. No way I pay that price for a 2B. I am definitely with you on that, I am much more curious if the MFY’s might do that though. I think one of Correa or Semien probably signs with them. I think I would rather them sign Semien, although Correa is also in a career year type of season and he always gets hurt so…maybe this is not very important really
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 6, 2021 14:06:03 GMT -5
Much of his value is tied to defense and the Red Sox aren't moving Xander off SS just yet. No way I pay that price for a 2B. I am definitely with you on that, I am much more curious if the MFY’s might do that though. I think one of Correa or Semien probably signs with them. I think I would rather them sign Semien, although Correa is also in a career year type of season and he always gets hurt so…maybe this is not very important really Until the Yankees go over the luxury tax again, I'm going to assume that they always stay under it.
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Post by soxfansince67 on Oct 6, 2021 14:11:11 GMT -5
I am half way through watching the game from last night on mlb.com (blacked out for me last night so I listened).
yes, Xander and Kyle's home runs - just awesome and energizing.
But my, Eovaldi - I am sitting here awestruck at his approach, command and control. Simply brilliant pitching performance.
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Post by curtisw on Oct 6, 2021 14:11:12 GMT -5
I am definitely with you on that, I am much more curious if the MFY’s might do that though. I think one of Correa or Semien probably signs with them. I think I would rather them sign Semien, although Correa is also in a career year type of season and he always gets hurt so…maybe this is not very important really Until the Yankees go over the luxury tax again, I'm going to assume that they always stay under it. That’s a fair point and they very well might make moved designed to not push them over but I could see them panicking. We will see. You probably have the right idea about it though. They might be more conservative in the off-season than some expect
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 6, 2021 14:15:41 GMT -5
Huh. Fangraphs has the Red Sox with the best odds of winning the AL pennant, and the second most likely to win the World Series. Not sure I really buy that... their algorithms seem way too down on the Rays' chances, giving us a 60% chance of winning the LDS. But kind of interesting. And whatever numbers they're using likely include the season numbers for Kiké, Dalbec, and Renfroe. OTOH, they would also include Barnes, Ottavino, and Taylor numbers.
This methodology was the rosiest for the regular season, and hence most accurate.
I'll point out that our apparent weakness, the pen, might end up being a huge strength, because if we can add 1 or more of the aforementioned three at their standard going-well quality to the four current trusted guys, it's that much better. And Cora is managing it. And he has the rovers.
We could use one blowout in this series to get a look at the three guys ...
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Post by jimed14 on Oct 6, 2021 14:21:09 GMT -5
This is kind of an insane amount of hard hit balls in a 6-2 game.
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Post by julyanmorley on Oct 6, 2021 14:32:14 GMT -5
I see a yes/no market with only a $1000 limit on Cris that puts the Red Sox at 10% to win the World Series and 21% to win the AL.
As an aside, these futures markets are only useful in a wisdom of crowds sense if they let you bet both sides. If you just see a list of 30 teams with only their odds to affirmatively win the World Series, the information to take away is merely that the casino thinks all these bets are bad for you to take. It's not telling you that these odds are close to a fair price. If you can bet both sides, then the midpoint of the two prices can typically be reasonably considered close to a fair price.
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Post by Don Caballero on Oct 6, 2021 14:33:09 GMT -5
This is kind of an insane amount of hard hit balls in a 6-2 game. Schwarber's HR was one of the purest hits I saw this season. It came out of his bat like it would do some Looney Tunes stuff and go around the globe before it landed. It was like a perfect haymaker that lands square in the chin. I'm surprised the ev wasn't higher, it felt like an absolute BOMB in action.
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ematz1423
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Post by ematz1423 on Oct 6, 2021 14:54:33 GMT -5
Until the Yankees go over the luxury tax again, I'm going to assume that they always stay under it. That’s a fair point and they very well might make moved designed to not push them over but I could see them panicking. We will see. You probably have the right idea about it though. They might be more conservative in the off-season than some expect A quick tally of salaries for yankees and just from cole, Stanton, Chapman, lamaieu, hicks and severino theyre at 132 million. That's not taking into account their arbitration guys including judge so probably tack on another 40ish million? I agree until they show they're willing to go over the luxury tax I'm skeptical they're going to be players on this SS crop of FAs even though that's probably just what their team needs to become quite a bit better.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2021 15:24:26 GMT -5
I've already penciled in Correa for them. But with Cole, Stanton, and Judge already on the roster, I wonder if they can really "afford" (i.e., if Steinbrenner will be willing to spend for) another $30 million player. I have google so many news papers in past month in LA and what they're saying the Dodgers will be all in on Correa more than Max Scherzer and let Corey Seager walk.
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